<p><strong>奈飞</strong>（NFLX -0.40%）的股东们在日历上圈出了 7 月 17 日。这一天，公司将公布其第二季度的财务业绩。</p>
<p>这家流媒体公司今年表现非常出色。其股价今年上涨了 44%。然而，远超预期的业绩可能会使股价进一步飙升，而低于预期的收益则可能产生相反的效果。</p>
<p>投资者应该在奈飞发布下一个季度更新之前购买其股票吗？让我们来看看。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ1MzIvY291cGxlLXdhdGNoaW5nLXR2LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ1MzIvY291cGxlLXdhdGNoaW5nLXR2LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>估值可能是个问题</h2>
<p>奈飞今年表现良好，得益于其出色的财务业绩。公司 2024 年第四季度和本财年第一季度的季度更新都非常优秀。根据奈飞的指引，这一趋势预计将在第二季度继续。奈飞预计收入约为 110.4 亿美元，比 2024 年第二季度增长 15.4%。</p>
<p>这家流媒体公司预计每股收益（EPS）为 7.03 美元，比上一个财年的同一时期高出 44.1%。公司的指引还暗示其营业利润率将显著上升，从 2024 年第二季度的 27.2% 上升至 33.3%。值得注意的是，华尔街分析师对公司第二季度的平均收入预测与奈飞相同，但他们预测的平均 EPS 为 7.06 美元，数据来源于 Yahoo! Finance。</p>
<p>股票在季度更新后的走势部分取决于它是否能够超出其指引（以及华尔街的预期），同时为第三季度提供同样吸引人的预测。然而，在奈飞的情况下，有一个主要因素需要考虑：估值。奈飞的市盈率为 51 倍，这相当高，尤其是考虑到通信服务行业的平均水平为 19.5 倍。</p>
<p>这限制了奈飞在财报发布后的上涨潜力。市场已经预期它会超出预期。这就是为什么它的估值如此高的原因。</p>
<p>即使其业绩与指引持平或略有超出，华尔街可能也会无动于衷。然而，如果公司业绩低于预期，即使是稍微低于，或者其第三季度的指引未能达到华尔街的标准，投资者应该预期会出现抛售。</p>
<h2>最好关注长期</h2>
<p>考虑在 7 月 17 日之前购买奈飞股票的投资者应该评估他们的目标和投资期限。那些希望通过潜在的财报后股价上涨快速获利的人将面临巨大的风险。预测公司股票在季度更新后的表现几乎是不可能的。市场有时对其反应是不可预测的。</p>
<p>然而，希望持有公司股票五年或更长时间的投资者应该认真考虑今天就开始建仓，即使股票的估值很高。</p>
<p>奈飞在 7 月 17 日之后可能会下跌，从而为投资者提供更具吸引力的入场点，但再次强调，这种情况是无法预测的。更重要的是，公司长期前景非常乐观。这是推动其在 2025 年表现的另一个关键因素。</p>
<p>尽管新平台层出不穷，奈飞仍然保持着流媒体行业的领导地位。公司之所以能够做到这一点，得益于其业务的微调，包括推出低价的广告支持层。管理层曾对这一想法嗤之以鼻，但奈飞决定适应行业内的变化动态，这一决定被证明是明智的。</p>
<p>尽管对公司业务进行了这些调整，奈飞的核心战略仍然保持不变。它依赖于制作或授权优质内容，以吸引观众，增加参与度，并使公司能够更好地了解观众想观看的内容，从而制作或授权更多相同类型的内容。</p>
<p>随着奈飞吸引更多观众，这种动态只会得到改善，表明强大的网络效应。公司的品牌名称与流媒体同义，有助于增强其护城河。</p>
<p>最后，流媒体行业仍然存在巨大的市场空间。今年早些时候，奈飞估计有超过 6500 亿美元的收入机会，这使其过去 12 个月的收入 402 亿美元显得微不足道。无论 7 月 17 日发生什么，股票都应该带来强劲的回报。这就是为什么今天值得购买公司的股票。</p>

奈飞

<p>奈飞定于 7 月 17 日公布其第二季度财务业绩，今年股价上涨了 44%。分析师预计收入为 110.4 亿美元，每股收益为 7.03 美元。然而，奈飞以 51 倍的预期市盈率的高估值可能会限制财报后的上涨空间。投资者应考虑他们的长期目标，因为在财报发布后，股价可能会下跌，但奈飞强大的品牌和市场地位表明其长期前景稳健。流媒体行业仍然具有显著的增长潜力，使得奈飞的股票成为值得投资的选择</p>

<p><strong>Netflix</strong>'s (NFLX -0.40%) shareholders have July 17 circled on their calendar. That's the day the company will report its financial results for the second quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>奈飞</strong>（NFLX -0.40%）的股东们在日历上圈出了 7 月 17 日。这一天，公司将公布其第二季度的财务业绩。</p>
</div><p>The streaming specialist has been on fire all year long. Its shares are up by 44% this year. However, much stronger-than-expected results could send the stock soaring even further -- and weaker-than-expected earnings could have the opposite effect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家流媒体公司今年表现非常出色。其股价今年上涨了 44%。然而，远超预期的业绩可能会使股价进一步飙升，而低于预期的收益则可能产生相反的效果。</p>
</div><p>Should investors purchase Netflix's shares before it releases its next quarterly update? Let's find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者应该在奈飞发布下一个季度更新之前购买其股票吗？让我们来看看。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ1MzIvY291cGxlLXdhdGNoaW5nLXR2LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824532%2Fcouple-watching-tv.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Valuation could be an issue</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值可能是个问题</h2>
</div><p>Netflix has performed well this year because of its stellar financial results. The company's quarterly updates for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of the current fiscal year were both excellent. According to Netflix's guidance, this trend is expected to continue in the second quarter. Netflix expects revenue of approximately $11.04 billion, representing a 15.4% increase from the second quarter of 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奈飞今年表现良好，得益于其出色的财务业绩。公司 2024 年第四季度和本财年第一季度的季度更新都非常优秀。根据奈飞的指引，这一趋势预计将在第二季度继续。奈飞预计收入约为 110.4 亿美元，比 2024 年第二季度增长 15.4%。</p>
</div><p>The streaming specialist projected earnings per share (EPS) of $7.03, 44.1% higher than the comparable period of the previous fiscal year. The company's guidance also implies that its operating margin will jump significantly, going from 27.2% in Q2 2024 to 33.3%. Of note, Wall Street analysts have the same average revenue projection for the company for the second quarter, but they predict an average EPS of $7.06, according to Yahoo! Finance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家流媒体公司预计每股收益（EPS）为 7.03 美元，比上一个财年的同一时期高出 44.1%。公司的指引还暗示其营业利润率将显著上升，从 2024 年第二季度的 27.2% 上升至 33.3%。值得注意的是，华尔街分析师对公司第二季度的平均收入预测与奈飞相同，但他们预测的平均 EPS 为 7.06 美元，数据来源于 Yahoo! Finance。</p>
</div><p>The direction in which a stock moves after its quarterly update partly depends on whether it can exceed its guidance (and Wall Street's) while giving investors an equally attractive projection for the third quarter. There is one major thing to consider in Netflix's case, though: valuation. Netflix is trading at 51 times forward earnings. That's pretty steep, especially considering the average for the communication services sector is 19.5.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票在季度更新后的走势部分取决于它是否能够超出其指引（以及华尔街的预期），同时为第三季度提供同样吸引人的预测。然而，在奈飞的情况下，有一个主要因素需要考虑：估值。奈飞的市盈率为 51 倍，这相当高，尤其是考虑到通信服务行业的平均水平为 19.5 倍。</p>
</div><p>That limits Netflix's post-earnings upside potential. The market is already expecting it to beat expectations. That's why it is commanding such a hefty premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这限制了奈飞在财报发布后的上涨潜力。市场已经预期它会超出预期。这就是为什么它的估值如此高的原因。</p>
</div><p>Even if its results are on par with or slightly exceed its guidance, Wall Street might just shrug. However, if the company falls short of expectations, even slightly, or its third-quarter guidance doesn't meet The Street's standards, investors should expect a sell-off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使其业绩与指引持平或略有超出，华尔街可能也会无动于衷。然而，如果公司业绩低于预期，即使是稍微低于，或者其第三季度的指引未能达到华尔街的标准，投资者应该预期会出现抛售。</p>
</div><h2>It's best to focus on the long term</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最好关注长期</h2>
</div><p>Investors considering buying Netflix's shares before July 17 should assess their goals and investment horizons. Those looking to make a quick buck on a potential post-earnings stock price jump would be taking a huge risk. It's next to impossible to predict how a company's shares will behave after a quarterly update. The market can sometimes be unpredictable in how it reacts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑在 7 月 17 日之前购买奈飞股票的投资者应该评估他们的目标和投资期限。那些希望通过潜在的财报后股价上涨快速获利的人将面临巨大的风险。预测公司股票在季度更新后的表现几乎是不可能的。市场有时对其反应是不可预测的。</p>
</div><p>However, investors hoping to hold onto the company's shares for five years or more should seriously consider initiating a position today, even with the stock's steep premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，希望持有公司股票五年或更长时间的投资者应该认真考虑今天就开始建仓，即使股票的估值很高。</p>
</div><p>Netflix might dip after July 17 and give investors a more attractive entry point, but once again, it's impossible to predict. More importantly, the company's long-term prospects are excellent. That's another critical factor driving its performance in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奈飞在 7 月 17 日之后可能会下跌，从而为投资者提供更具吸引力的入场点，但再次强调，这种情况是无法预测的。更重要的是，公司长期前景非常乐观。这是推动其在 2025 年表现的另一个关键因素。</p>
</div><p>Netflix has remained the leader in streaming despite the rise of numerous new platforms. The company has achieved this thanks to slight changes to its business, including the launch of a low-price, ad-supported tier. Management had long scoffed at that idea, but Netflix decided to adapt to the changing dynamics within the industry -- a decision that proved wise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管新平台层出不穷，奈飞仍然保持着流媒体行业的领导地位。公司之所以能够做到这一点，得益于其业务的微调，包括推出低价的广告支持层。管理层曾对这一想法嗤之以鼻，但奈飞决定适应行业内的变化动态，这一决定被证明是明智的。</p>
</div><p>Despite these modifications to the company's business, Netflix's core strategy remains the same. It relies on producing or licensing top-notch content that attracts viewers, increases engagement, and enables the company to learn more about what its viewers want to watch, allowing it to produce or license more of the same.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管对公司业务进行了这些调整，奈飞的核心战略仍然保持不变。它依赖于制作或授权优质内容，以吸引观众，增加参与度，并使公司能够更好地了解观众想观看的内容，从而制作或授权更多相同类型的内容。</p>
</div><p>This dynamic only improves as Netflix attracts more viewers, indicating a strong network effect. The company's brand name, which is synonymous with streaming, helps strengthen its moat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着奈飞吸引更多观众，这种动态只会得到改善，表明强大的网络效应。公司的品牌名称与流媒体同义，有助于增强其护城河。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, there is still massive whitespace in the streaming industry. Earlier this year, Netflix estimated a more than $650 billion revenue opportunity, which makes its trailing-12-month revenue of $40.2 billion look tiny in comparison. The stock should deliver strong returns regardless of what happens on July 17. That's why it's worth buying the company's shares today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，流媒体行业仍然存在巨大的市场空间。今年早些时候，奈飞估计有超过 6500 亿美元的收入机会，这使其过去 12 个月的收入 402 亿美元显得微不足道。无论 7 月 17 日发生什么，股票都应该带来强劲的回报。这就是为什么今天值得购买公司的股票。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Netflix Stock Before July 17?

- Netflix 将于 7 月 17 日发布第二季度财报，预计收入约 110.4 亿美元。  
- 公司预计每股收益为 7.03 美元，较去年同期增长 44.1%。  
- 尽管估值较高，长期投资者仍可考虑在此时买入。  

你是否应该在 7 月 17 日之前购买奈飞股票？