<p>多年来，我在一家管理资产约 6 亿美元的长短对冲基金担任股票分析师。虽然我们的多头仓位通常会大于空头仓位，但我们做空的股票数量往往会比做多的股票多得多。通常，我们可能会持有大约 15 个核心多头头寸，而空头头寸可能超过 70 只股票。</p>
<p>这样做的原因很简单。在多头方面，我们通常会在经过深入研究的高信念股票中持有更为集中化的投资组合。然而，做空个股本质上风险更高，因此我们会将单个头寸控制得较小。</p>
<p>由于股票理论上可以无限上涨，你可能会损失远超过你能赚取的金额。同时，如果空头头寸不利，股票价格上涨，头寸规模会变得更大，而不是更小。这可能导致保证金追缴，通常会导致空头被迫以亏损回购他们做空的股票。</p>
<p>那么，为什么还要做空呢？首先，这是市场对冲。但更重要的是，大多数股票实际上表现不佳。根据摩根大通资产管理的一项研究，在 1980 年至 2020 年期间，罗素 3000 指数中的 40% 股票遭受了 70% 或更大幅度的灾难性损失，且从未恢复。同时，在此期间，该指数中 42% 的股票出现了负回报。此外，三分之二的股票表现不及该指数。</p>
<p>然而，我在寻找做空股票时学到的一课是，绝不要仅仅基于估值做空。</p>
<h2>Palantir 及其高估值</h2>
<p>如果有哪只股票可以仅仅基于估值做空，那就是 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR -0.33%）。毕竟，该股票的前瞻性市销率（P/S）高达惊人的 82.5 倍。请注意，这里指的是销售额，而不是收益。</p>
<p>然而，估值并不是在没有近期下行催化剂的情况下做空一家好公司的理由。这一点可以用一句老道的华尔街格言来概括，这句话归功于英国经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯：&#34;市场可以在你保持偿付能力的时间内保持非理性。&#34;</p>
<p>在做空的背景下，这基本上意味着一只股票可以在很长一段时间内保持高估值，远远超过空头能够继续持有头寸的时间。</p>
<p>因此，虽然 Palantir 的估值看起来极端，但在其市销率达到 30 倍或 60 倍时也可以这样说。毕竟，在几年前软件即服务（SaaS）估值的高峰期，平均 SaaS 股票的市销率仅达到约 20 倍，且收入增长超过 30%。</p>
<p>与此同时，该公司一直在强劲执行。过去七个季度，其收入增长加速，第一季度增长 39%。虽然高估值可能使股票在季度收益方面的任何失误或失望变得更加脆弱，但目前 Palantir 的表现非常出色。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ2MDMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4OTk3MTM0NC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ2MDMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4OTk3MTM0NC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>好吧，但你会买这只股票吗？</h2>
<p>是否购买 Palantir 股票是一个更棘手的问题，但有理由相信该公司最终可能成长为全球最大的公司之一。它最初是一家主要为美国政府提供数据收集和分析的公司，其技术可用于发现复杂模式，帮助政府追踪恐怖分子。但随着人工智能（AI）的出现，它已成为商业领域的重要参与者。</p>
<p>Palantir 并不是试图构建更好的 AI 模型，而是通过其数据收集和分析能力使 AI 更具可操作性。其人工智能平台（AIP）从各种不同来源收集数据，然后将数据与其现实世界的对应物连接起来。这基本上将 AIP 转变为一个操作系统，客户可以使用 AI 模型来寻找现实问题的解决方案。</p>
<p>如今，AIP 在各个行业中被用于极为多样化的任务。这些任务包括在医院监测脓毒症，帮助房屋建筑商简化土地开发投标流程，以及改善谷物制造商的物流和供应链。</p>
<p>美国政府在关键任务中使用其技术，包括在战场上。甚至北约最近与该公司签署了一项大合同。</p>
<p>AIP 和 Palantir 技术的广泛应用是其潜力成为全球最大公司的原因。</p>
<p>因此，虽然我更倾向于在估值下跌时购买该股票，但我认为它有很好的机会成为一个巨大的长期赢家。</p>

PLTR

<p>作者是一位前专业空头，建议尽管 Palantir Technologies（PLTR）的前瞻市销率高达 82.5，但仍然不应做空该股票。他们强调，做空风险很大，不应仅仅基于估值而没有近期催化剂。Palantir 展现出强劲的收入增长，并在各个行业扩展其人工智能能力，显示出未来显著增长的潜力。虽然作者更倾向于在回调时买入，但他们认为 Palantir 有很好的机会成为全球最大的公司之一</p>

<p>For several years, I worked as an equity analyst at a long-short hedge fund, with around $600 million in assets under management. While our long book would be larger than our short book, we would be short many more stocks than we would be long in. Typically, we might hold around 15 core long positions, while we could be short more than 70 stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年来，我在一家管理资产约 6 亿美元的长短对冲基金担任股票分析师。虽然我们的多头仓位通常会大于空头仓位，但我们做空的股票数量往往会比做多的股票多得多。通常，我们可能会持有大约 15 个核心多头头寸，而空头头寸可能超过 70 只股票。</p>
</div><p>The reason for this was quite simple. On the long side, we typically had a more concentrated portfolio in highly researched names that we had high conviction in. However, shorting individual stocks is inherently riskier, so we would keep individual positions small.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这样做的原因很简单。在多头方面，我们通常会在经过深入研究的高信念股票中持有更为集中化的投资组合。然而，做空个股本质上风险更高，因此我们会将单个头寸控制得较小。</p>
</div><p>Since stocks can technically go up indefinitely, you can lose much more than you can make. Meanwhile, if a short goes against you and the stock price goes up, the position size becomes larger, not smaller. This can lead to margin calls, which typically leads to short-sellers being forced to buy back the stock they shorted at a loss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于股票理论上可以无限上涨，你可能会损失远超过你能赚取的金额。同时，如果空头头寸不利，股票价格上涨，头寸规模会变得更大，而不是更小。这可能导致保证金追缴，通常会导致空头被迫以亏损回购他们做空的股票。</p>
</div><p>So why short-sell at all? For one, it's a market hedge. But more importantly, most stocks actually do underperform. According to a JP Morgan Asset Management study, between 1980 and 2020, 40% of stocks in the Russell 3000 index -- which consists of the 3,000 largest U.S. traded stocks -- suffered catastrophic losses of 70% or more from which they never recovered. Meanwhile, 42% of the stocks in the index had negative returns during this period. In addition, two-thirds of stocks underperformed the index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，为什么还要做空呢？首先，这是市场对冲。但更重要的是，大多数股票实际上表现不佳。根据摩根大通资产管理的一项研究，在 1980 年至 2020 年期间，罗素 3000 指数中的 40% 股票遭受了 70% 或更大幅度的灾难性损失，且从未恢复。同时，在此期间，该指数中 42% 的股票出现了负回报。此外，三分之二的股票表现不及该指数。</p>
</div><p>However, one lesson I learned when looking for stocks to short is never to short on valuation alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我在寻找做空股票时学到的一课是，绝不要仅仅基于估值做空。</p>
</div><h2>Palantir and its high valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir 及其高估值</h2>
</div><p>If there was ever a candidate to short solely on valuation, it would be <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR -0.33%). After all, the stock trades at an astonishing 82.5 forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple. Note that this is sales, not earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果有哪只股票可以仅仅基于估值做空，那就是 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR -0.33%）。毕竟，该股票的前瞻性市销率（P/S）高达惊人的 82.5 倍。请注意，这里指的是销售额，而不是收益。</p>
</div><p>However, valuation is not a reason to short a good company without a near-term downward catalyst. The reason for this can be summed up by an old Wall Street adage that is attributed to the British economist John Maynard Keynes: &#34;The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，估值并不是在没有近期下行催化剂的情况下做空一家好公司的理由。这一点可以用一句老道的华尔街格言来概括，这句话归功于英国经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯：&#34;市场可以在你保持偿付能力的时间内保持非理性。&#34;</p>
</div><p>In the context of short-selling, this basically means that a stock can carry high valuation for a very long time, much longer than a short-seller can continue to hold a position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在做空的背景下，这基本上意味着一只股票可以在很长一段时间内保持高估值，远远超过空头能够继续持有头寸的时间。</p>
</div><p>So, while Palantir's valuation may look extreme, the same could have also been said when it traded at 30 times sales or 60 times sales. After all, at the height of software-as-a-service (SaaS) valuations a few years ago, the average SaaS stock only got up to around a 20 times P/S multiple with over 30% revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，虽然 Palantir 的估值看起来极端，但在其市销率达到 30 倍或 60 倍时也可以这样说。毕竟，在几年前软件即服务（SaaS）估值的高峰期，平均 SaaS 股票的市销率仅达到约 20 倍，且收入增长超过 30%。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the company has been executing strongly. Its revenue growth has accelerated each of the past seven quarters and grew 39% in the first quarter. While high valuations can make a stock more vulnerable to any missteps or disappointments around quarterly earnings, Palantir right now has been firing on all cylinders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，该公司一直在强劲执行。过去七个季度，其收入增长加速，第一季度增长 39%。虽然高估值可能使股票在季度收益方面的任何失误或失望变得更加脆弱，但目前 Palantir 的表现非常出色。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ2MDMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4OTk3MTM0NC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824603%2Fgettyimages-1489971344.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>O.K., but would you buy the stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>好吧，但你会买这只股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Whether to buy Palantir stock is a trickier question to answer, but there is reason to believe that the company could eventually grow to become one of the largest in the world. It started out as a data-gathering and analytics company primarily for the U.S. government, where its technology could be used to discover complex patterns, enabling the government to help track terrorists. But with the advent of artificial intelligence (AI), it has become a major player in the commercial space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是否购买 Palantir 股票是一个更棘手的问题，但有理由相信该公司最终可能成长为全球最大的公司之一。它最初是一家主要为美国政府提供数据收集和分析的公司，其技术可用于发现复杂模式，帮助政府追踪恐怖分子。但随着人工智能（AI）的出现，它已成为商业领域的重要参与者。</p>
</div><p>Instead of looking to build a better AI model, Palantir set out to make AI more actionable through its data gathering and analytical capabilities. Its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) gathers data from a variety of different sources and then connects the data to its real-world counterparts. This essentially turns AIP into an operating system where customers use AI models to find solutions to real-world problems.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 并不是试图构建更好的 AI 模型，而是通过其数据收集和分析能力使 AI 更具可操作性。其人工智能平台（AIP）从各种不同来源收集数据，然后将数据与其现实世界的对应物连接起来。这基本上将 AIP 转变为一个操作系统，客户可以使用 AI 模型来寻找现实问题的解决方案。</p>
</div><p>Today, AIP is being used across an array of industries for remarkably diverse tasks. These include monitoring for sepsis at hospitals, helping a homebuilder streamline its land-development bidding process, and improving the logistics and supply chain of a cereal maker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，AIP 在各个行业中被用于极为多样化的任务。这些任务包括在医院监测脓毒症，帮助房屋建筑商简化土地开发投标流程，以及改善谷物制造商的物流和供应链。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. government uses its technology for mission-critical tasks, including on the battlefield. And even NATO recently signed a big deal with the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国政府在关键任务中使用其技术，包括在战场上。甚至北约最近与该公司签署了一项大合同。</p>
</div><p>The breadth of uses for AIP and Palantir's technology is extraordinary and is the reason the company has the potential to grow into one of the biggest in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AIP 和 Palantir 技术的广泛应用是其潜力成为全球最大公司的原因。</p>
</div><p>As such, while I would prefer to buy the stock on a dip given its valuation, I think it has a very good opportunity to be a huge long-term winner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，虽然我更倾向于在估值下跌时购买该股票，但我认为它有很好的机会成为一个巨大的长期赢家。</p>
</div>

As a Former Professional Short-Seller, I Would Never Short Palantir Stock. Here's Why.

- 文章讨论了对 Palantir 的短期和长期投资观点。  
- 提到 Palantir 的高估值和强劲的收入增长。  
- 认为其技术在多个行业的广泛应用使其具备长期增长潜力。

作为一名前专业卖空者，我绝不会做空 Palantir Tech 的股票。以下是原因