<p><strong>台积电</strong>（TSM 0.24%）可能不设计人工智能（AI）芯片，但它是每个 AI 芯片制造商所依赖的公司。AI 巨头们依赖台积电来制造他们的数据处理芯片设计。这就是为什么台积电在 AI 基础设施领域是最安全的长期投资。</p>
<p>让我们看看是什么让这家公司如此特别。</p>
<h2>代工领导者</h2>
<p>台积电是全球最先进的半导体代工厂，它的顶级客户包括全球领先的芯片设计公司，如 <strong>英伟达</strong>、<strong>超微半导体</strong>、<strong>博通</strong> 和 <strong>苹果</strong>。它拥有竞争对手无法匹敌的规模和技术领导力。<strong>英特尔</strong> 一直在烧钱试图建立其代工业务，而三星的良率问题仍然是一个难题。这使得台积电在先进节点市场上拥有巨大的市场份额领先，且差距不小。</p>
<p>节点指的是芯片上使用的晶体管的尺寸，以纳米为单位进行测量。节点越小，芯片上可以容纳的晶体管就越多，从而提高性能和能效。更小的节点在台积电的产品组合中占据越来越大的份额。7 纳米及以下节点制造的芯片在第一季度占其收入的 73%，高于一年前的 65%。其 3 纳米节点占收入的 22%，而苹果已经预订了其未来产品的大部分 2 纳米供应。即使是英特尔也在使用台积电的 3 纳米技术来制造其一些最先进的芯片。这说明了很多问题。</p>
<p>台积电在这一领域的明显领导地位也赋予了公司强大的定价权。随着需求的增加和价格的上涨，这推动了强劲的收入增长和改善的毛利率。上个季度，其收入跃升 35%，达到 255 亿美元，主要得益于高性能计算（HPC）的增长。这一趋势在第二季度继续，预计公司报告的初步收入增长为 39%，达到 319 亿美元，路透社的估计如此。</p>
<p>尽管新厂正在逐步投产，毛利率仍然保持强劲。尽管亚利桑那州和日本的工厂仍在逐步投产并对盈利能力造成压力，第一季度毛利率仍上升 190 个基点，达到 58.8%。台积电预计这些新设施将在今年稀释毛利率 2 到 3 个百分点，但公司已经开始提高价格以抵消压力。据报道，台积电将在今年提高 AI 芯片的价格，亚利桑那州制造的芯片可能会溢价 30%。</p>
<h2>台积电的商业风险</h2>
<p>台积电并非完全没有风险。围绕台湾的地缘政治紧张局势将始终是故事的一部分，并且它并不免受美国的关税和政策变化的影响。然而，台积电已经通过在全球扩展其业务来应对这两者。该公司一直在与其最大客户合作，在美国、日本和欧洲建设新的工厂。</p>
<p>然而，使台积电成为最安全的 AI 半导体股票的是它在半导体价值链中的位置。最终，哪家公司在 AI 芯片竞赛中获胜并不重要。台积电的成功与整体 AI 芯片需求相关，而不是任何一家公司产品的成功。</p>
<p>AI 芯片的需求也没有放缓。台积电之前预测，AI 相关收入将在未来五年内以中位数 40% 的复合年增长率（CAGR）增长，从 2024 年开始。它还与客户密切合作，以便适时扩展产能。由于其顶级客户预订了未来的供应，台积电对未来的增长有着清晰的可见性。</p>
<p>与此同时，除了 AI 之外，它还可能在自动驾驶方面获得顺风。机器人出租车开始起飞并获得关注，所有这些车辆都需要配备先进的芯片。虽然仍然为时尚早，但如果机器人出租车和自动驾驶变得普遍，台积电将是一个重要的受益者。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ3Nzgvc2VtaWNvbmR1Y3Rvci13YWZlci1wcm9kdWN0aW9uLTE4MDIyODUxMDkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="420" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ3Nzgvc2VtaWNvbmR1Y3Rvci13YWZlci1wcm9kdWN0aW9uLTE4MDIyODUxMDkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>一片正在制造的半导体晶圆。</p>
<h2>现在是购买股票的时候</h2>
<p>在 AI 芯片的竞争中，台积电本质上是 AI 武器供应商。它不需要押注于谁将主导芯片市场，因为它向所有公司提供制造服务。对于希望接触 AI 半导体而不押注于单一芯片制造商的投资者来说，台积电是最安全的选择。</p>
<p>该股票的估值也很有吸引力，基于分析师对 2025 年的预测，其前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 24 倍，市盈增长比率（PEG）低于 0.7。PEG 比率低于 1 的股票通常被认为是被低估的。</p>
<p>综合来看，台积电是目前半导体领域中最好的和最安全的股票之一。</p>

台积电

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）被认为是人工智能芯片市场的领先者，尽管它并不设计芯片。TSMC 的先进制造能力和强大的客户基础，包括 Nvidia 和 Apple，使其成为人工智能基础设施中一个安全的长期投资。该公司已经实现了显著的收入增长，预计未来五年与人工智能相关的收入年均增长率将达到中位数的 40%。TSMC 的股票被认为具有吸引力的估值，因此对于希望在半导体行业中获得投资机会而不想押注于单个芯片制造商的投资者来说，推荐购买</p>

<p><strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 0.24%) may not design artificial intelligence (AI) chips, but it's a company that every AI chipmaker relies on. The AI giants rely on TSMC to manufacture their number-crunching chip designs. That's why TSMC is the safest long-term play in the AI infrastructure space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>台积电</strong>（TSM 0.24%）可能不设计人工智能（AI）芯片，但它是每个 AI 芯片制造商所依赖的公司。AI 巨头们依赖台积电来制造他们的数据处理芯片设计。这就是为什么台积电在 AI 基础设施领域是最安全的长期投资。</p>
</div><p>Let's look at what makes the company so special.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们看看是什么让这家公司如此特别。</p>
</div><h2>The foundry leader</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>代工领导者</h2>
</div><p>TSMC is the world's most advanced semiconductor foundry, and it counts the world's leading chip designers among its top customers, including <strong>Nvidia</strong>, <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>, <strong>Broadcom</strong>, and <strong>Apple</strong>. It has the scale and technological leadership that rivals can't match. <strong>Intel</strong> has been burning cash trying to establish its foundry business, while Samsung's yield issues continue to be an issue. That has given TSMC a huge market share lead in the advanced node market, and it's not particularly close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电是全球最先进的半导体代工厂，它的顶级客户包括全球领先的芯片设计公司，如 <strong>英伟达</strong>、<strong>超微半导体</strong>、<strong>博通</strong> 和 <strong>苹果</strong>。它拥有竞争对手无法匹敌的规模和技术领导力。<strong>英特尔</strong> 一直在烧钱试图建立其代工业务，而三星的良率问题仍然是一个难题。这使得台积电在先进节点市场上拥有巨大的市场份额领先，且差距不小。</p>
</div><p>Nodes refer to the size of the transistors used on a chip, measured in nanometers. The smaller the node, the more transistors can be packed onto the chip, which boosts performance and power efficiency. Smaller nodes are becoming a bigger part of TSMC's mix. Chips made on 7nm and smaller nodes made up 73% of its revenue in the first quarter, up from 65% a year ago. Its 3nm node accounted for 22% of revenue, and Apple has booked much of its 2nm supply for future products. Even Intel has been using TSMC's 3nm tech for some of its most advanced chips. That says a lot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>节点指的是芯片上使用的晶体管的尺寸，以纳米为单位进行测量。节点越小，芯片上可以容纳的晶体管就越多，从而提高性能和能效。更小的节点在台积电的产品组合中占据越来越大的份额。7 纳米及以下节点制造的芯片在第一季度占其收入的 73%，高于一年前的 65%。其 3 纳米节点占收入的 22%，而苹果已经预订了其未来产品的大部分 2 纳米供应。即使是英特尔也在使用台积电的 3 纳米技术来制造其一些最先进的芯片。这说明了很多问题。</p>
</div><p>TSMC's clear leadership in the space has also given the company strong pricing power. Between increasing demand and higher prices, this is driving both strong revenue growth and improved gross margins. Last quarter, its revenue jumped 35% to $25.5 billion, led by growth in high-performance computing (HPC). That continued in Q2, with the company reporting preliminary revenue growth of 39% to $31.9 billion, as estimated by Reuters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电在这一领域的明显领导地位也赋予了公司强大的定价权。随着需求的增加和价格的上涨，这推动了强劲的收入增长和改善的毛利率。上个季度，其收入跃升 35%，达到 255 亿美元，主要得益于高性能计算（HPC）的增长。这一趋势在第二季度继续，预计公司报告的初步收入增长为 39%，达到 319 亿美元，路透社的估计如此。</p>
</div><p>Margins remain strong despite new fabs ramping. Gross margin rose 190 basis points to 58.8% in Q1 despite its Arizona and Japan fabs still ramping up and weighing on profitability. TSMC expects these newer facilities to dilute margins by 2 to 3 percentage points this year, but the company is already raising prices to offset the pressure. According to reports, TSMC will increase AI chip prices this year, with Arizona-made chips potentially commanding a 30% premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管新厂正在逐步投产，毛利率仍然保持强劲。尽管亚利桑那州和日本的工厂仍在逐步投产并对盈利能力造成压力，第一季度毛利率仍上升 190 个基点，达到 58.8%。台积电预计这些新设施将在今年稀释毛利率 2 到 3 个百分点，但公司已经开始提高价格以抵消压力。据报道，台积电将在今年提高 AI 芯片的价格，亚利桑那州制造的芯片可能会溢价 30%。</p>
</div><h2>TSMC's business risks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>台积电的商业风险</h2>
</div><p>TSMC is not entirely without risks. Geopolitical tensions around Taiwan will always be part of the story, and it's not immune to tariffs and policy shifts in the U.S. However, TSMC is already addressing both by expanding its footprint globally. The company has been building new fabs in the U.S., Japan, and Europe in partnership with its largest customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电并非完全没有风险。围绕台湾的地缘政治紧张局势将始终是故事的一部分，并且它并不免受美国的关税和政策变化的影响。然而，台积电已经通过在全球扩展其业务来应对这两者。该公司一直在与其最大客户合作，在美国、日本和欧洲建设新的工厂。</p>
</div><p>However, what makes TSMC the safest AI semiconductor stock is its position in the semiconductor value chain. It ultimately doesn't matter which company wins the AI chip race. TSMC's success is tied to overall AI chip demand, not any one company's products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，使台积电成为最安全的 AI 半导体股票的是它在半导体价值链中的位置。最终，哪家公司在 AI 芯片竞赛中获胜并不重要。台积电的成功与整体 AI 芯片需求相关，而不是任何一家公司产品的成功。</p>
</div><p>AI chip demand isn't slowing down, either. TSMC previously projected AI-related revenue to grow at a mid-40% compounded average growth rate (CAGR) over the next five years, starting in 2024. It's also working closely with customers to time its capacity expansion accordingly. With its top customers booking future supply, it has solid visibility into future growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AI 芯片的需求也没有放缓。台积电之前预测，AI 相关收入将在未来五年内以中位数 40% 的复合年增长率（CAGR）增长，从 2024 年开始。它还与客户密切合作，以便适时扩展产能。由于其顶级客户预订了未来的供应，台积电对未来的增长有着清晰的可见性。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, it could see a tailwind beyond AI with autonomous driving. Robotaxis are beginning to take off and gain traction, and all of those vehicles will need to be fitted with advanced chips. It's still early, but if robotaxis and autonomous driving become commonplace, TSMC will be a big beneficiary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，除了 AI 之外，它还可能在自动驾驶方面获得顺风。机器人出租车开始起飞并获得关注，所有这些车辆都需要配备先进的芯片。虽然仍然为时尚早，但如果机器人出租车和自动驾驶变得普遍，台积电将是一个重要的受益者。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ3Nzgvc2VtaWNvbmR1Y3Rvci13YWZlci1wcm9kdWN0aW9uLTE4MDIyODUxMDkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824778%2Fsemiconductor-wafer-production-1802285109.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>A semiconductor wafer being manufactured.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一片正在制造的半导体晶圆。</p>
</div><h2>Time to buy the stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在是购买股票的时候</h2>
</div><p>In the AI chip battle, TSMC is essentially the AI arms dealer. It doesn't need to bet on who will dominate the chip market, because it sells manufacturing services to all of them. For investors who want exposure to AI semiconductors without betting on a single chipmaker, TSMC is the safest way to play it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 AI 芯片的竞争中，台积电本质上是 AI 武器供应商。它不需要押注于谁将主导芯片市场，因为它向所有公司提供制造服务。对于希望接触 AI 半导体而不押注于单一芯片制造商的投资者来说，台积电是最安全的选择。</p>
</div><p>The stock is also attractively valued, trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24 times based on analysts' 2025 estimates and a price/earnings-to-growth ratio (PEG) of less than 0.7. Stocks with PEG ratios below 1 are typically considered undervalued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该股票的估值也很有吸引力，基于分析师对 2025 年的预测，其前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 24 倍，市盈增长比率（PEG）低于 0.7。PEG 比率低于 1 的股票通常被认为是被低估的。</p>
</div><p>Taken all together, TSMC is one of the best and safest stocks to buy in the semiconductor space right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合来看，台积电是目前半导体领域中最好的和最安全的股票之一。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Stock Is the Safest AI Chip Bet

- 台积电是全球领先的半导体代工厂，主要客户包括英伟达和苹果。  
- 其在先进节点市场占据巨大市场份额，第一季度收入增长 35%。  
- 尽管面临地缘政治风险，台积电仍预计未来五年 AI 相关收入将以中 40% 的复合年增长率增长。

预测：台积电的股票是最安全的 AI 芯片投资选择