<p>第二季度的财报季即将开始，投资者坐立不安的说法可能有些轻描淡写。<strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 1.26%）正处于潜在经济拉锯战的中心。</p>
<p>一方面，数字零售商平台上的许多产品来自全球各地，因此它特别容易受到特朗普政府关税政策的影响。另一方面，该公司的数字广告业务和云计算部门——亚马逊网络服务（AWS）——将从人工智能的加速采用中受益，这可能成为增长的重要催化剂。</p>
<p>当亚马逊公布其第二季度业绩时，公司面临一个关键障碍，预计将在 7 月 31 日发布。考虑到竞争的经济力量，投资者应该在这一关键财报之前购买亚马逊股票，还是等到结果公布后再做决定？让我们看看证据所指向的方向。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ4MjQvYS15b3VuZy1jb3VwbGUta2V5aW5nLWNyZWRpdC1jYXJkLWluZm9ybWF0aW9uLWludG8tYS1zbWFydHBob25lLXNjcmVlbi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ4MjQvYS15b3VuZy1jb3VwbGUta2V5aW5nLWNyZWRpdC1jYXJkLWluZm9ybWF0aW9uLWludG8tYS1zbWFydHBob25lLXNjcmVlbi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>数字零售会受到冲击吗？</h2>
<p>即将到来的季度中最大的未知数之一是关税的影响。第三方商家约占单位销售的 62%，而这些卖家中的许多人从中国采购商品。美国上个月与中国达成了一项贸易协议，将中国商品的关税设定为至少 30%，尽管某些产品的关税更高。虽然这比 145% 的峰值有所下降，但协议在 6 月初达成的时机表明，亚马逊的第二季度销售和利润可能会受到影响。</p>
<p>然而，该公司将其会员日促销活动扩展到四天，是去年仅限会员的促销活动时长的两倍，这可能会推动销售。不幸的是，该活动在第二季度结束后才开始，因此对额外销售的影响要等到第三季度才能反映在财务报表中。</p>
<p>第一季度的业绩在关税实施之前公布，投资者对结果表示满意。整体净销售额同比增长 9%，达到 1557 亿美元，其中 60% 的收入来自数字销售或第三方卖家服务。投资者将密切关注关税对亚马逊最大业务的影响。</p>
<h2>云端的头脑</h2>
<p>好消息并不全是坏的，亚马逊业务的广泛性在一定程度上将使公司免受贸易战的影响，首先是其云计算部门。根据市场分析公司 Canalys 的数据，AWS 在云基础设施服务中无可争议地占据领导地位，第一季度市场份额为 32%，同比增长 17%。它也是亚马逊最大的盈利来源，贡献了 19% 的收入和 63% 的营业收入。</p>
<p>过去一年左右，增长重新点燃，受到人工智能需求的推动。上个月，首席执行官安迪·贾西（Andy Jassy）指出，亚马逊正在进行或已建立超过 1000 个生成式人工智能服务和应用，并计划开发更多，表示 “人工智能将是一个重要的催化剂。” 这反过来可能会推动对 AWS 的更高需求。</p>
<h2>一切都 “广告” 起来</h2>
<p>我们不能忘记亚马逊的广告业务，这已迅速成为公司增长最快的业务。第二季度广告收入同比增长 18%，得益于亚马逊 Prime 和公司的直播体育节目。根据广告行业出版物 Adweek 的最新报告，市场营销人员正在将数百万广告支出转移到亚马逊的平台上。</p>
<p>亚马逊的广告业务最初是为了利用其电子商务平台上宝贵的数字广告空间，但此后大幅扩展。今年早些时候，Prime Video 上的广告成为标准，用户需要支付每月 3 美元的费用以免除广告。该公司还通过其其他广告支持的流媒体频道 Freevee 和直播游戏平台 Twitch 获得广告收入。</p>
<p>亚马逊寻求扩大其优势，与 <strong>Roku</strong> 达成了一项开创性协议，为广告商提供 “美国最大的认证 CTV（连接电视）覆盖范围”，该覆盖范围仅通过亚马逊需求方平台（DSP）提供，该平台将广告买家与可用广告连接起来。根据新闻稿，Roku 和亚马逊的联合覆盖估计达到 8000 万 CTV 家庭，占该国 CTV 家庭的 80% 以上。这可能成为未来广告增长的重要催化剂。</p>
<h2>买还是不买</h2>
<p>我通常不建议根据日历上的任意日期做出购买决策，而是考虑整体情况和可能推动收入和利润增长的机会。亚马逊的每个主要业务部门都在以可观的速度增长，人工智能的普及可能会成为持续的催化剂。</p>
<p>华尔街对亚马逊的看法几乎是一致的看涨。在 7 月份提供意见的 70 位分析师中，有 66 位——高达 94%——将该股票评级为买入或强力买入，且_没有_一位建议卖出。此外，242 美元的平均目标价表明，与周五的收盘价相比，还有 8% 的上涨空间。</p>
<p>然而，就在本周，<strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 的分析师将亚马逊的目标价上调至 300 美元，这代表着投资者 33% 的潜在上涨空间。分析师称亚马逊为 “首选”，并指出更可控的关税、云计算增长以及其人工智能产品的强劲表现推动了该公司的看涨预期。</p>
<p>亚马逊无可争议地是电子商务和云基础设施服务的领导者，也是数字广告的关键参与者。再加上该公司的人工智能产品组合，华尔街对亚马逊未来的看好也就不难理解了。</p>
<p>最后值得一提的是，亚马逊目前的市盈率大约为过去 12 个月收益的 37 倍。虽然这个倍数较高，但远低于该股票三年平均市盈率的 83 倍，因此从历史角度来看，这个价格是个便宜货。我认为，对于过去三年上涨了 95% 的股票来说，这个价格是合理的，远远超过了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的 61% 的涨幅。</p>
<p>基于这些原因，亚马逊股票值得购买。</p>

亚马逊

亚马逊每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>随着亚马逊在 7 月 31 日即将发布第二季度财报，投资者正在权衡关税的影响和公司的增长潜力。尽管关税可能会影响销售，但亚马逊的云计算部门（AWS）和广告业务预计将推动增长，特别是在人工智能兴起的背景下。分析师们对该股票持乐观态度，70 位分析师中有 66 位对其表示积极看法。即将发布的财报对于评估亚马逊在这些经济挑战中的表现至关重要</p>

<p>Second-quarter earnings season is about to hit the ground running, and to say investors will be sitting on the edge of their seats may be an understatement. One company that's caught in the underlying economic tug-of-war is <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 1.26%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二季度的财报季即将开始，投资者坐立不安的说法可能有些轻描淡写。<strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 1.26%）正处于潜在经济拉锯战的中心。</p>
</div><p>On the one hand, many of the products on the digital retailer's platform are sourced from around the world, so it's particularly vulnerable to the Trump administration's tariff agenda. On the other hand, the company's digital advertising business and its cloud segment -- Amazon Web Services (AWS) -- stand to gain from accelerating adoption of AI, which could be a significant catalyst for growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一方面，数字零售商平台上的许多产品来自全球各地，因此它特别容易受到特朗普政府关税政策的影响。另一方面，该公司的数字广告业务和云计算部门——亚马逊网络服务（AWS）——将从人工智能的加速采用中受益，这可能成为增长的重要催化剂。</p>
</div><p>The company faces a key hurdle when Amazon reports its second-quarter results, which are expected to be released on July 31. Given the competing economic forces at play, should investors buy Amazon stock ahead of this key financial report or wait until the results have been made public? Let's take a look to see what the evidence suggests.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当亚马逊公布其第二季度业绩时，公司面临一个关键障碍，预计将在 7 月 31 日发布。考虑到竞争的经济力量，投资者应该在这一关键财报之前购买亚马逊股票，还是等到结果公布后再做决定？让我们看看证据所指向的方向。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ4MjQvYS15b3VuZy1jb3VwbGUta2V5aW5nLWNyZWRpdC1jYXJkLWluZm9ybWF0aW9uLWludG8tYS1zbWFydHBob25lLXNjcmVlbi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824824%2Fa-young-couple-keying-credit-card-information-into-a-smartphone-screen.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Will digital retail take a hit?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>数字零售会受到冲击吗？</h2>
</div><p>One of the biggest unknowns in the upcoming quarter is the impact of tariffs. Third-party merchants account for roughly 62% of unit sales, and many of those sellers source their goods from China. The U.S. announced a trade deal with China last month that set tariffs on Chinese goods at a minimum of 30%, though the levies on some products are higher. While this is down from the peak of 145%, the timing of the deal in early June suggests Amazon's second-quarter sales and profits will likely take a hit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即将到来的季度中最大的未知数之一是关税的影响。第三方商家约占单位销售的 62%，而这些卖家中的许多人从中国采购商品。美国上个月与中国达成了一项贸易协议，将中国商品的关税设定为至少 30%，尽管某些产品的关税更高。虽然这比 145% 的峰值有所下降，但协议在 6 月初达成的时机表明，亚马逊的第二季度销售和利润可能会受到影响。</p>
</div><p>However, the company expanded its Prime Day sale to four days, double the length of its member-only sale last year, which could boost sales. Unfortunately, the event began after the close of the second quarter, so the impact on any additional sales won't hit the financials until Q3.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，该公司将其会员日促销活动扩展到四天，是去年仅限会员的促销活动时长的两倍，这可能会推动销售。不幸的是，该活动在第二季度结束后才开始，因此对额外销售的影响要等到第三季度才能反映在财务报表中。</p>
</div><p>Results from the first quarter came in before the imposition of tariffs, and investors liked what they saw. Overall net sales increased 9% year over year to $155.7 billion, with 60% of its revenue coming from digital sales or third-party seller services. Investors will be watching closely to gauge the impact of tariffs on Amazon's biggest business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一季度的业绩在关税实施之前公布，投资者对结果表示满意。整体净销售额同比增长 9%，达到 1557 亿美元，其中 60% 的收入来自数字销售或第三方卖家服务。投资者将密切关注关税对亚马逊最大业务的影响。</p>
</div><h2>Head in the clouds</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>云端的头脑</h2>
</div><p>The news isn't all bad, as the breadth of Amazon's business will insulate the company somewhat from the trade war, starting with its cloud segment. AWS is the undisputed leader in cloud infrastructure services, controlling 32% of the market in the first quarter and growing 17% year over year, according to market analyst Canalys. It's also Amazon's biggest moneymaker, generating 19% of revenue and 63% of operating income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息并不全是坏的，亚马逊业务的广泛性在一定程度上将使公司免受贸易战的影响，首先是其云计算部门。根据市场分析公司 Canalys 的数据，AWS 在云基础设施服务中无可争议地占据领导地位，第一季度市场份额为 32%，同比增长 17%。它也是亚马逊最大的盈利来源，贡献了 19% 的收入和 63% 的营业收入。</p>
</div><p>Growth has reignited over the past year or so, fueled by demand for AI. Last month, CEO Andy Jassy noted that Amazon had more than 1,000 generative AI services and applications in progress or built, with plans to develop many more, saying, &#34;AI will be a substantial catalyst.&#34; This, in turn, could drive higher demand for AWS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去一年左右，增长重新点燃，受到人工智能需求的推动。上个月，首席执行官安迪·贾西（Andy Jassy）指出，亚马逊正在进行或已建立超过 1000 个生成式人工智能服务和应用，并计划开发更多，表示 “人工智能将是一个重要的催化剂。” 这反过来可能会推动对 AWS 的更高需求。</p>
</div><h2>It all &#34;ads&#34; up</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一切都 “广告” 起来</h2>
</div><p>Let's not forget Amazon's advertising, which has quickly become the company's fastest-growing business. Ad revenue grew 18% year over year in Q2, fueled by Amazon Prime and the company's live sports programming. Recent reports suggest marketers are moving millions in ad spending to Amazon's platform, according to advertising industry publication Adweek.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们不能忘记亚马逊的广告业务，这已迅速成为公司增长最快的业务。第二季度广告收入同比增长 18%，得益于亚马逊 Prime 和公司的直播体育节目。根据广告行业出版物 Adweek 的最新报告，市场营销人员正在将数百万广告支出转移到亚马逊的平台上。</p>
</div><p>Amazon's advertising business began as a way for the company to capitalize on the valuable digital real estate on its e-commerce platform, but has since expanded significantly. Earlier this year, advertising on Prime Video became standard, with users required to pay a $3 monthly fee to forego the ads. The company also gets ad revenue from Freevee, its other ad-supported streaming channel, and from Twitch, its live-streaming gaming platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊的广告业务最初是为了利用其电子商务平台上宝贵的数字广告空间，但此后大幅扩展。今年早些时候，Prime Video 上的广告成为标准，用户需要支付每月 3 美元的费用以免除广告。该公司还通过其其他广告支持的流媒体频道 Freevee 和直播游戏平台 Twitch 获得广告收入。</p>
</div><p>Amazon sought to expand its advantage, inking a groundbreaking deal with <strong>Roku</strong> to give advertisers &#34;access to the largest authenticated CTV [connected TV] footprint in the U.S.,&#34; available exclusively through the Amazon Demand-Side Platform (DSP), which connects ad buyers with available advertising. Roku and Amazon reach combined reaches an estimated 80 million CTV households, which represents more than 80% of CTV households in the country, according to the press release. This could be a significant catalyst for ad growth going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊寻求扩大其优势，与 <strong>Roku</strong> 达成了一项开创性协议，为广告商提供 “美国最大的认证 CTV（连接电视）覆盖范围”，该覆盖范围仅通过亚马逊需求方平台（DSP）提供，该平台将广告买家与可用广告连接起来。根据新闻稿，Roku 和亚马逊的联合覆盖估计达到 8000 万 CTV 家庭，占该国 CTV 家庭的 80% 以上。这可能成为未来广告增长的重要催化剂。</p>
</div><h2>To buy or not to buy</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>买还是不买</h2>
</div><p>I generally don't recommend making buying decisions based on arbitrary days on a calendar, but rather the totality of the circumstances and the opportunities that could fuel revenue and profit growth. Each of Amazon's major business segments is growing at a respectable clip, and the proliferation of AI could act as an ongoing catalyst.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我通常不建议根据日历上的任意日期做出购买决策，而是考虑整体情况和可能推动收入和利润增长的机会。亚马逊的每个主要业务部门都在以可观的速度增长，人工智能的普及可能会成为持续的催化剂。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street is nearly unanimous in its bullish view of Amazon. Of the 70 analysts who have offered an opinion in July, 66 -- a whopping 94% -- rate the stock a buy or strong buy, and <em>none</em> recommend selling. Furthermore, the average price target of $242 suggests there's additional upside of 8% compared to Friday's closing price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街对亚马逊的看法几乎是一致的看涨。在 7 月份提供意见的 70 位分析师中，有 66 位——高达 94%——将该股票评级为买入或强力买入，且_没有_一位建议卖出。此外，242 美元的平均目标价表明，与周五的收盘价相比，还有 8% 的上涨空间。</p>
</div><p>However, just this week, analysts at <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong> lifted their price target on Amazon to $300, which represents 33% potential upside for investors. The analysts called Amazon a &#34;top pick&#34; and cited more manageable tariffs, cloud growth, and strength across its AI offerings as fueling the firm's bullish call.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，就在本周，<strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 的分析师将亚马逊的目标价上调至 300 美元，这代表着投资者 33% 的潜在上涨空间。分析师称亚马逊为 “首选”，并指出更可控的关税、云计算增长以及其人工智能产品的强劲表现推动了该公司的看涨预期。</p>
</div><p>Amazon is the undisputed leader in e-commerce and cloud infrastructure services and a key player in digital advertising. Add to that the company's portfolio of AI offerings, and it's easy to see why Wall Street is so bullish on Amazon's future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊无可争议地是电子商务和云基础设施服务的领导者，也是数字广告的关键参与者。再加上该公司的人工智能产品组合，华尔街对亚马逊未来的看好也就不难理解了。</p>
</div><p>On a final note, Amazon is currently selling for roughly 37 times trailing-12-month earnings. While that's a premium, it's well below the stock's three-year average multiple of 83, so from a historical standpoint, it's a bargain. I'd suggest that's a reasonable price to pay for a stock that gained 95% over the past three years, far exceeding the 61% gains of the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后值得一提的是，亚马逊目前的市盈率大约为过去 12 个月收益的 37 倍。虽然这个倍数较高，但远低于该股票三年平均市盈率的 83 倍，因此从历史角度来看，这个价格是个便宜货。我认为，对于过去三年上涨了 95% 的股票来说，这个价格是合理的，远远超过了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的 61% 的涨幅。</p>
</div><p>For those reasons and more, Amazon stock is a buy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于这些原因，亚马逊股票值得购买。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Amazon Stock Before July 31?

- 亚马逊面临关税影响，第二季度销售和利润可能受挫。  
- 然而，云计算和广告业务增长强劲，AI 需求推动发展。  
- 分析师普遍看好亚马逊，目标价显示有上涨空间。  

你是否应该在 7 月 31 日之前购买亚马逊的股票？