Overview of the 2025 Market Conditions

2025 年市场状况概述

Taipei’s real estate market in 2025 is experiencing a noticeable cool-down after several years of heated growth. Transaction volumes have fallen sharply, and price momentum has stalled amid tighter credit conditions and economic uncertainties taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com. In the first quarter of 2025, only about 63,000 property transfers were registered nationwide – a 20% drop year-on-year and the weakest volume in eight years taipeitimes.com. Across Taiwan’s six largest cities (including Taipei), housing transactions plummeted over 20% year-on-year by mid-2025 taipeitimes.com. This slowdown follows a period of surging activity in 2024; for example, home sales in the first half of 2024 had soared by 27% year-on-year amid economic recovery taipeitimes.com. However, sentiment shifted in late 2024 as global economic headwinds and new lending restrictions dampened buyer confidence.

2025 年台北的房地产市场在经历了几年的快速增长后，明显降温。由于信贷条件收紧和经济不确定性，交易量急剧下降，价格动能停滞。2025 年第一季度，全国仅登记了约 63,000 宗房产转让，同比下降 20%，是八年来的最低交易量。在台湾六大城市（包括台北），到 2025 年中期，住房交易同比下降超过 20%。这一放缓紧随 2024 年活动激增的时期；例如，2024 年上半年，房屋销售同比激增 27%，得益于经济复苏。然而，随着全球经济逆风和新的贷款限制在 2024 年底打击了买家的信心，市场情绪发生了转变。

Several factors are contributing to Taipei’s 2025 housing slump. The Central Bank’s implementation of selective mortgage credit controls (starting September 2024) has raised borrowing costs and reduced leverage for buyers taiwanhousing.tw taiwanhousing.tw. Banks now require larger down payments (loan-to-value ratios were cut roughly 10 percentage points for second homes) and have eliminated interest-only grace periods, making financing more stringent taiwanhousing.tw taiwanhousing.tw. Would-be buyers are also exercising caution: nearly 80% of surveyed house hunters prefer to “wait on the sidelines” until at least 2026 given the uncertain economy and tighter credit taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com. Taiwan’s GDP is still growing (around 3% forecast for 2025) and interest rates remain relatively flat cbreemail.com, but high borrowing costs (mortgage rates ~2.5%+ even at state banks taipeitimes.com) and global trade tensions are undermining real estate sentiment.

多个因素导致了 台北 2025 年的住房低迷。中央银行实施的选择性 按揭信贷控制（自 2024 年 9 月开始）提高了借款成本，减少了买家的杠杆。银行现在要求更高的首付款（第二套房的贷款价值比大约减少了 10 个百分点），并取消了仅付利息的宽限期，使融资变得更加严格。潜在买家也在谨慎行事：近 80% 的调查房屋猎手表示，考虑到经济不确定性和信贷收紧，他们更倾向于_“在场外观望”_，至少要等到 2026 年。台湾的 GDP 仍在增长（预计 2025 年约为 3%），利率相对平稳，但 高借款成本（即使在国有银行，按揭利率也在 2.5% 以上）和全球贸易紧张局势正在削弱房地产市场的信心。

Critically, housing prices in Taipei have begun a modest correction. This is not a crash, but the frothy appreciation of 2020–2024 has leveled off. In Q4 2024, average housing prices nationwide fell 6.6% from the previous quarter, and all six major cities saw price declines taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. Taipei City’s prices dipped about 3% in Q4 (vs Q1 2024), a relatively mild drop compared to steeper corrections in southern cities like Kaohsiung (-10%) taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. By Q1 2025, Taipei’s average home price stood at roughly NT$1.233 million per ping (~US$38,000 for 3.3m²) – the highest in Taiwan taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw, but growth has flattened. More sellers are cutting asking prices to close deals, with discounts of 10–12% off list price now common in Taipei – the widest gap since the pandemic era taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com. In short, 2025’s market is characterized by weakening demand, rising inventory, and gentle price softening, especially in segments and regions that saw the biggest run-up.

关键是，台北的房价已经开始小幅修正。这并不是崩盘，但 2020 年至 2024 年的过快上涨已经趋于平稳。在 2024 年第四季度，全国平均房价较上一季度下降了 6.6%，所有六个主要城市的房价均出现下跌。台北市的房价在第四季度下降了约 3%（与 2024 年第一季度相比），相比于高雄等南部城市的更大幅度修正（-10%）而言，降幅相对温和。到 2025 年第一季度，台北的平均房价约为 每坪 NT$1.233 百万（约合 3.3 平方米 38,000 美元）——在台湾最高，但增长已趋于平稳。越来越多的卖家降低要价以达成交易，台北的折扣普遍在 10% 至 12% 之间——这是疫情以来的最大差距。总之，2025 年的市场特征是需求减弱、库存上升和价格温和回落，尤其是在经历了最大涨幅的细分市场和地区。

Residential Real Estate Trends in 2025

2025 年住宅房地产趋势

The residential property sector in Taipei has shifted from a seller’s market to a more balanced or even buyer-favorable market in 2025. Homebuyers have more negotiating power than in previous years. According to Evertrust, the average bargaining range (difference between asking and closing prices) widened to around 10–12% in early 2025, whereas at the peak of the market in mid-2024 it was in the single digits taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com. Taipei sellers led with the deepest discounts (about 12.8% off asking on average), followed by New Taipei (11.5%) and Tainan (11.1%) taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com. This indicates that would-be buyers are successfully pushing for price concessions, a trend driven by the tighter credit environment and more abundant supply.

2025 年，台北的 住宅物业市场 已从卖方市场转变为更平衡甚至买方有利的市场。购房者的议价能力 比以往几年更强。根据 Evertrust 的数据，2025 年初，平均议价范围（要价与成交价之间的差额）扩大至约 10% 至 12%，而在 2024 年中期市场高峰时，这一差距仅在个位数。台北的卖家提供了最深的折扣（平均约 12.8%），其次是新北市（11.5%）和台南（11.1%）。这表明，潜在买家正在成功争取价格让步，这一趋势受到信贷环境收紧和供应充足的推动。

Housing supply has indeed increased. A record 100,000 new housing units are slated for completion across Taiwan in 2025, raising concerns of oversupply in certain regions taipeitimes.com. While Taipei City itself has limited land for large new developments, the greater Taipei metro (including New Taipei) has seen numerous projects in recent years. Notably, housing starts (new constructions) in 2024 dropped to a five-year low nationwide as developers grew cautious taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. In some areas with high inventories – for example, New Taipei’s redevelopment zones – builders actually delayed or scaled back projects in late 2024 after the credit tightening taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. This pullback in construction could eventually moderate supply growth. But in the near term, Taipei’s housing stock is plentiful thanks to the previous building boom, and unsold inventory remains elevated (many developers still hold numerous unsold pre-sale units) taiwannews.com.tw. As a result, buyers have more choices and less urgency, further cooling price pressure.

住房供应 确实有所增加。预计 2025 年台湾将完成创纪录的 100,000 个新住房单位，这引发了对某些地区过剩供应的担忧。虽然台北市本身可用于大型新开发的土地有限，但大台北地区（包括新北市）近年来有许多项目。值得注意的是，2024 年的住房开工（新建项目）在全国范围内降至五年来的最低点，因为开发商变得谨慎。在一些库存高的地区——例如新北市的重建区——开发商实际上在 2024 年底因信贷收紧而 推迟或缩减项目。这种建设的回撤可能最终会缓和供应增长。但在短期内，由于之前的建筑热潮，台北的住房库存充足，未售出的库存仍然较高（许多开发商仍持有大量未售出的预售单位）。因此，买家有更多选择，紧迫感降低，进一步减轻了价格压力。

Home price trends vary by segment. In the pre-sale (new build) market, prices remain relatively high – buoyed by developers’ earlier optimism – but sales rates have slowed. In Q2 2024, the average pre-sale price nationwide hit NT$530,300 per ping (≈NT$16 million for a 30 ping apartment), up 6.7% from the prior quarter taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com. However, by Q4 2024, signs of price correction emerged even in new projects. The median national house price fell to about NT$338,600 per ping in Q4 taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw, and price cuts of ~6% became common to move inventory taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. Taipei’s prime projects still command a premium (often NT$1 million+ per ping), but sellers are now more flexible under pressure. As one analyst noted, unlike the boom years when owners held firm, many sellers in 2025 are willing to negotiate or lower asking prices to offload units taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. This is especially true for investors holding multiple properties, who face higher carrying costs due to new taxes and lending rules (detailed in a later section).

房价趋势 因细分市场而异。在 预售（新建）市场 中，价格仍然相对较高——受到开发商早期乐观情绪的支撑——但销售率已经放缓。在 2024 年第二季度，全国平均预售价格达到了每坪 NT$530,300（≈NT$1600 万的 30 坪公寓），比前一季度上涨了 6.7%。然而，到 2024 年第四季度，即使在新项目中也出现了 价格修正 的迹象。全国中位房价 在第四季度降至每坪约 NT$338,600，价格下调约 6% 已成为常态，以便清理库存。台北的优质项目仍然保持溢价（通常每坪超过 NT$100 万），但在压力下，卖家现在更加灵活。正如一位分析师所指出的，与业主在繁荣时期坚守的情况不同，2025 年的许多卖家愿意谈判或降低要价 以出售单位。这对于持有多处房产的投资者尤其如此，他们由于新税收和贷款规则面临更高的持有成本（将在后面的部分详细说明）。

Buyer demographics in Taipei’s residential market are also shifting. The government’s policies favoring first-time owner-occupiers are having an effect: the share of first-time buyers rose from ~57% in early 2023 to 61.4% by end-2024, indicating more genuine end-users in the market taiwanhousing.tw taiwanhousing.tw. Young families and singles are cautiously re-entering, helped by special mortgages (e.g. the New Youth Housing program) and by investors retreating. In fact, single-person and small-family households now dominate Taipei – nearly half of all Taiwanese households are one or two people taipeitimes.com. Taipei, New Taipei, and Kaohsiung have a particularly high number of single occupancies taipeitimes.com. This demographic trend means strong demand for smaller units and “one home per person” housing, aligning with the government’s goal of “one owner, one home” taipeitimes.com. Correspondingly, luxury speculative demand has pulled back. Even areas that saw frenzy due to tech industry news – for example, regions near new TSMC semiconductor fabs – have cooled. A survey in early 2025 showed mixed expectations for house prices near TSMC’s planned facilities, with just over half of respondents still expecting price gains and the rest predicting stability or declines taipeitimes.com. This ambivalence reflects awareness that tech-driven booms can reverse if projects stall or if speculation runs too far ahead of fundamentals.

台北住宅市场的买家人口结构 也在发生变化。政府对首次购房者的政策正在产生影响：首次购房者的比例从 2023 年初的约 57% 上升至 2024 年底的 61.4%，这表明市场上有更多真实的自住需求。年轻家庭和单身人士在特殊抵押贷款（例如新青年住房计划）的帮助下谨慎重返市场，同时投资者也在撤退。事实上，单身和小家庭户现在主导了台北——几乎一半的台湾家庭是一个或两个人。台北、新北和高雄的单人居住数量尤其高。这一人口趋势意味着对 小户型的强劲需求 和 “每人一套房” 的住房需求，与政府的_“一人一房”_目标相一致。因此，奢侈品的投机需求有所回落。即使是由于科技行业新闻而出现狂热的地区——例如新台积电半导体厂附近的区域——也已降温。2025 年初的一项调查显示，受访者对台积电计划设施附近房价的预期不一，超过一半的受访者仍然期待价格上涨，其余人则预测稳定或下降。这种矛盾反映出人们意识到 科技驱动的繁荣可能会逆转，如果项目停滞或投机过度超前于基本面。

On the rental side, Taipei’s residential rents have remained relatively stable and low-yield relative to prices. Rental yields in Taipei average only around 2% annually, which is among the lowest in Asia investasian.com investasian.com. This means buying to let is not very profitable, and many investors counted on capital appreciation instead. With price growth flattening, some would-be landlords are rethinking their strategy, and more homes may return to the for-sale market. The affordability crisis remains severe: home price-to-income ratios in Taiwan hover around 15–20, and in Taipei it can take roughly 40 years of average income to afford a modest apartment investasian.com investasian.com. This has led to public outcry over housing justice, population outflow from Taipei (over 20,000 net residents left Taipei City in Q1 2025, often seeking cheaper homes in suburbs) taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw, and continuous government efforts to tame prices.

在 租赁市场 方面，台北的住宅租金相对稳定且相对于价格收益较低。台北的租金收益率平均仅约为 2%，在亚洲属于最低水平之一。这意味着出租房产并不十分盈利，许多投资者依赖资本增值。随着价格增长趋于平稳，一些潜在的房东正在重新考虑他们的策略，更多的房屋可能会回归出售市场。可负担性危机 依然严重：台湾的房价与收入比约为 15-20，而在台北，购买一套普通公寓大约需要 40 年的平均收入。这导致了公众对住房公正的强烈呼声，人口从台北流出（2025 年第一季度超过 20,000 名净居民离开台北市，通常是为了寻找更便宜的郊区住房），以及政府持续努力抑制房价。

In summary, Taipei’s 2025 residential market is in a cooldown phase: sales volumes are down, price growth is turning to mild decline, and leverage-fueled speculation is ebbing. End-users are slowly regaining the upper hand, and the market is healthier in the sense that froth is being squeezed out. But affordability challenges persist, and a true buyers’ market will depend on further price adjustments or income growth.

总之，台北 2025 年的住宅市场正处于降温阶段：销售量下降，价格增长转向温和下滑，杠杆驱动的投机正在减退。最终用户正在慢慢重新获得主导地位，市场在某种程度上更健康，因为泡沫正在被挤出。但可负担性挑战依然存在，真正的买方市场将取决于进一步的价格调整或收入增长。

Commercial Real Estate Trends (Office, Retail, and Industrial)

商业房地产趋势（办公、零售和工业）

Commercial real estate in Taipei shows a mixed picture in 2025, with the office sector facing headwinds while some industrial/logistics segments remain robust. According to CBRE’s outlook, office vacancy rates are rising and expected to reach a seven-year high in 2025 cbreemail.com. New supply is coming online – including several premium office towers in the Xinyi and Nangang districts – outpacing current tenant demand. This surge in supply is turning Taipei’s office market into a tenant-favorable environment, a stark change after years of low vacancy. Landlords in older or non-prime buildings are likely to face increased competition and may need to offer incentives or lower rents to attract tenants. Indeed, many firms are pursuing “flight-to-quality” relocations cbreemail.com, upgrading to newer buildings with better amenities and leaving behind older offices. As a result, landlords’ bargaining power is eroding in the office segment, and rent growth is expected to be subdued in 2025.

台北的商业房地产 在 2025 年呈现出复杂的局面，办公部门面临逆风，而一些工业/物流领域仍然强劲。根据 CBRE 的展望，办公空置率正在上升，预计将在 2025 年达到七年来的最高点。新的供应正在上线——包括在信义和南港地区的几座高档办公大楼——超出了当前租户的需求。这一 供应激增 正在将台北的办公市场转变为租户友好的环境，这与多年来低空置率的情况形成鲜明对比。老旧或非优质建筑的房东可能面临竞争加剧，可能需要提供激励或降低租金以吸引租户。事实上，许多公司正在追求_“品质迁移”_，升级到设施更好的新建筑，抛弃旧办公室。因此，房东在办公领域的议价能力正在下降，预计 2025 年的租金增长将受到抑制。

Meanwhile, the retail property sector in Taipei is cautiously improving but not without challenges. Consumer confidence has been somewhat shaky due to stock market volatility and global economic uncertainty cbreemail.com. Thus, retailers are expanding carefully, focusing on proven locations and formats. The luxury retail segment (especially around Taipei 101/Xinyi and Zhongshan areas) has seen a rebound as tourism resumes in Asia, but neighborhood retail and shopping centers are still recovering from pandemic-era shifts to e-commerce. E-commerce growth continues to drive demand for modern logistics and warehousing space cbreemail.com. Taipei’s industrial real estate, particularly warehouses and last-mile distribution centers, remains a bright spot. Companies are investing in supply chain infrastructure; large e-commerce and 3PL (third-party logistics) firms seek high-quality logistics facilities around New Taipei and Taoyuan where land is available cbreemail.com. This has kept industrial vacancy low and rents relatively firm.

与此同时，台北的 零售物业市场 正在谨慎改善，但并非没有挑战。由于股市波动和全球经济不确定性，消费者信心有所动摇。因此，零售商正在谨慎扩张，专注于经过验证的地点和业态。奢侈品零售领域（尤其是在台北 101/信义和中山区）随着亚洲旅游的恢复而出现反弹，但社区零售和购物中心仍在从疫情时期向电子商务转型的影响中恢复。电子商务增长 继续推动对现代物流和仓储空间的需求。台北的工业房地产，特别是仓库和最后一公里配送中心，仍然是一个亮点。公司正在投资供应链基础设施；大型电子商务和第三方物流（3PL）公司在新北和桃园寻求 高质量的物流设施，那里土地供应充足。这使得工业空置率保持在低位，租金相对稳定。

It’s worth noting that Taipei’s commercial real estate is also influenced by broader economic shifts. The city is not a regional financial hub on the scale of Hong Kong or Singapore, but it is a headquarters city for tech manufacturers and service companies. As some tech production expands outside Taiwan, and with more people embracing remote or hybrid work, office space absorption has slowed. CBRE reports that these trends, combined with new completions, will make 2025 challenging for office landlords cbreemail.com. Conversely, any economic uptick or stabilization in trade policy (e.g. resolution of U.S.–China trade frictions) could improve business confidence and thus demand for office and retail space. For now, companies remain cost-conscious: we see firms consolidating offices or opting for smaller footprints in flexible/co-working spaces rather than large conventional leases.

值得注意的是，台北的商业房地产 也受到更广泛经济变化的影响。该市并不是像香港或新加坡那样的区域金融中心，但它是科技制造商和服务公司的总部城市。随着一些科技生产向台湾以外扩展，以及越来越多的人接受远程或混合工作，办公空间的吸纳速度放缓。CBRE 报告称，这些趋势，加上新竣工的项目，将使 2025 年对办公房东来说充满挑战。相反，任何经济回暖或贸易政策的稳定（例如美中贸易摩擦的解决）都可能改善商业信心，从而提高对办公和零售空间的需求。目前，公司仍然注重成本：我们看到企业在整合办公室或选择在灵活/共享空间中占用更小的面积，而不是签订大型传统租约。

In summary, commercial property in Taipei 2025 can be characterized as an evolving landscape:

总之，2025 年台北的商业物业 可以被描述为一个不断演变的格局：

Office: Rising vacancy and more tenant leverage as supply peaks cbreemail.com. Rent growth is flat and older buildings, especially non-prime, face pressure.
Retail: Slow expansion; prime retail holds value, but overall retail demand is tempered by cautious consumer spending cbreemail.com.
Industrial/Logistics: Strong demand for warehouses and logistics centers thanks to e-commerce and supply chain investments cbreemail.com. This sub-sector is an outperformer, with stable or rising rents and low vacancy in modern facilities.

办公： 空置率上升，租户的议价能力增强，因为供应达到峰值。租金增长持平，尤其是非优质的老旧建筑面临压力。
零售： 缓慢扩张；优质零售保持价值，但整体零售需求因消费者支出谨慎而受到抑制。
工业/物流： 由于电子商务和供应链投资，仓库和物流中心的需求强劲。这个子行业是 表现优异者，现代设施的租金稳定或上升，空置率低。

Investors in Taipei’s commercial market are thus shifting focus: some local institutional investors (e.g. insurers) are still allocating funds to real estate in 2025, but overall real estate investment volumes are expected to decline in 2025 given the cooling market cbreemail.com. Those who are investing show preference for industrial and niche sectors, or prime core assets, rather than speculative office projects. The office and retail sectors may need to wait for a clearer economic “soft landing” before seeing renewed growth.

因此，台北商业市场的投资者正在转变关注点：一些地方机构投资者（例如保险公司）仍在 2025 年将资金分配到房地产，但整体 房地产投资额预计将在 2025 年下降，因为市场降温。那些正在投资的人更倾向于工业和细分市场，或优质核心资产，而不是投机性的办公项目。办公和零售领域可能需要等待更清晰的经济 “软着陆”，才能看到新的增长。

Forecasts and Projections for the Coming Years

未来几年的预测与展望

Looking ahead, most analysts predict that Taipei’s property market will have a soft landing rather than a dramatic crash, but it will remain sluggish in the near term. Evertrust, Taiwan’s largest brokerage, forecasts that total property transactions nationwide will likely fall below 280,000 units in 2025, down from over 300,000 in 2024, as the market continues to cool taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com. Modest price declines are expected to continue through 2025 – on the order of a few percentage points – unless a major shock occurs. “We’re not seeing a market crash, but there’s also no momentum for a rebound,” Evertrust’s general manager explained in June taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com. In other words, the baseline expectation is for shrinking sales volume and moderate price correction going forward taipeitimes.com.

展望未来，大多数分析师预测 台北的房地产市场将实现软着陆，而不是剧烈崩溃，但在短期内仍将保持疲软。台湾最大的经纪公司永信预测，2025 年全国房地产交易总量可能会降至 28 万套以下，低于 2024 年的 30 多万套，因为市场继续降温。预计 价格小幅下跌 将持续到 2025 年，幅度在几个百分点左右，除非发生重大冲击。_“我们没有看到市场崩溃，但也没有反弹的动力，”_永信的总经理在 6 月解释道。换句话说，基线预期是 销售量缩减和适度的价格修正 将持续。

Key factors informing these projections include:

影响这些预测的关键因素包括：

Continued tight credit: The Central Bank has signaled it will maintain selective mortgage restrictions until prices stabilize. As of early 2025, loan-to-value ratios for second homes are around 60% (even lower for luxury properties), and banks are enforcing rigorous income vetting taiwanhousing.tw taiwanhousing.tw. With financing “no longer friction-free”, speculative demand should remain muted taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com. Interest rates are expected to stay flat or only gently rise, which provides some stability cbreemail.com, but there is little expectation of rate cuts that would stimulate new borrowing. In short, credit conditions will likely keep the market in check through 2025.
Supply overhang and construction pipeline: The wave of completions in 2025 adds supply in both residential and commercial segments. High new supply – e.g. 100k new homes nationwide in 2025 – will take time to be absorbed taipeitimes.com. However, leading indicators suggest a slowdown in future supply: housing starts dropped in 2024, meaning fewer new projects will hit the market in 2026–2027 taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. Many developers postponed projects after September’s credit tightening, especially in oversupplied areas taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. This could actually help balance the market in the medium term. For 2025-26, though, buyers will benefit from ample choices and developers clearing inventory, keeping price growth subdued.
Government policy stance: Policymakers in Taiwan have shown resolve in pursuing “housing justice” measures to curb speculation and improve affordability. Tax reforms (discussed below) and credit controls are part of this. It’s anticipated that the government will not loosen these measures in the next couple of years unless the economy weakens severely. In fact, further tightening steps are possible if prices tick back up too quickly taipeitimes.com. This vigilant policy approach suggests that any market rebound will be deliberately restrained. A “red-hot” resurgence like early 2024 is unlikely under the new regulatory regime.
Economic and external factors: Taiwan’s economy is forecast to grow modestly (~2–3% per year) in the near term cbreemail.com, which supports housing demand but not at a runaway pace. Export-dependent industries face uncertainty from U.S.–China trade tensions and slower global growth. Additionally, rising cross-strait geopolitical risks add a layer of caution for investors taiwannews.com.tw. Barring a major positive shock (such as a tech boom or a sudden surge of foreign capital), the demand side for real estate will likely remain cautious through 2025. On the positive side, low unemployment and wage growth in tech sectors provide underlying support for housing fundamentals in Greater Taipei, preventing any severe collapse in demand taiwannews.com.tw.

持续紧缩的信贷：中央银行已表明将维持选择性的抵押贷款限制，直到价格稳定。到 2025 年初，二手房的贷款价值比约为 60%（奢侈物业的比例更低），银行正在严格审核收入。由于融资 “不再无摩擦”，投机需求应保持低迷。预计利率将保持平稳或仅小幅上升，这提供了一定的稳定性，但几乎没有降息的预期来刺激新的借贷。简而言之，信贷条件可能会在 2025 年之前抑制市场。
供应过剩和建设管道：2025 年的完工潮为住宅和商业领域增加了供应。高新供应——例如 2025 年全国新增 10 万套住房——将需要时间来消化。然而，领先指标表明未来供应将放缓：2024 年住房开工量下降，这意味着在 2026-2027 年将有更少的新项目进入市场。许多开发商在 9 月份信贷收紧后推迟了项目，尤其是在供应过剩的地区。这实际上可能有助于在中期平衡市场。不过在 2025-26 年，买家将受益于丰富的选择 和开发商清理库存，从而保持价格增长温和。
政府政策立场：台湾的政策制定者在追求 “住房公正” 措施以遏制投机和改善可负担性方面表现出决心。税收改革（如下文讨论）和信贷控制是其中的一部分。预计政府在未来几年内不会放松这些措施，除非经济严重疲软。事实上，如果价格过快回升，进一步的 收紧措施 是可能的。这种警惕的政策方法表明，任何市场反弹都将被故意抑制。在新的监管制度下，像 2024 年初那样的 “火热” 复苏是不太可能的。
经济和外部因素：预计台湾经济在短期内将温和增长（约 2-3%），这支持住房需求，但不会以失控的速度增长。依赖出口的行业面临来自美中贸易紧张局势和全球增长放缓的不确定性。此外，日益上升的两岸地缘政治风险为投资者增加了一层谨慎。除非出现重大积极冲击（如科技繁荣或外资突然涌入），房地产的需求侧在 2025 年之前可能会保持谨慎。积极的一面是，科技行业的低失业率和工资增长为大台北地区的住房 基本面 提供了支持，防止需求出现严重崩溃。

Overall, the consensus outlook for Taipei’s real estate over the next few years is one of a gentle correction and plateau. Prices are expected to drift slightly downward or flatline, rather than escalate. Volume of transactions may remain below recent averages as buyers and sellers adjust expectations. Analysts describe it as a “sluggish” or “stagnant” phase taiwannews.com.tw – essentially a necessary cooling-off after a period of exuberance.

总体而言，未来几年台北房地产的共识展望是温和修正和平台期。 预计价格将略微下滑或保持平稳，而不是上涨。交易量可能会低于近期平均水平，因为买卖双方在调整预期。分析师将其描述为 “缓慢” 或 “停滞” 阶段——本质上是经历了一段繁荣后的必要降温。

For potential homebuyers, this forecast means better opportunities ahead: more room to negotiate and possibly slight price bargains, especially in areas or property types that had overshot in price. As a Chinatrust Real Estate manager noted, current conditions are “better for homebuyers with genuine needs” because sellers are more flexible now taiwannews.com.tw. For investors, near-term capital gains prospects appear limited; rental yields are unlikely to improve markedly, so holding costs versus returns must be carefully weighed.

对于潜在的购房者来说，这一预测意味着 更好的机会在前方：更多的谈判空间和可能的轻微价格优惠，尤其是在价格过高的地区或物业类型。正如中信房地产的一位经理所指出的，当前的条件对 “有真实需求的购房者更为有利”，因为卖家现在更灵活。对于投资者而言，短期内资本增值的前景似乎有限；租金收益 不太可能显著改善，因此持有成本与回报必须仔细权衡。

Looking beyond 2025, once the market finishes its correction and if Taiwan’s economy remains stable, the long-term trajectory for Taipei property is cautiously optimistic but not explosive. Taipei is the political and economic capital, and land supply is constrained, so housing will continue to be in demand. Demographic shifts (aging population, smaller households) could cap demand growth, but urban renewal and tech industry development (e.g. AI, semiconductor hubs) could provide new drivers. Importantly, if inflation and interest rates ease in coming years, some pent-up demand may re-enter the market. Local experts predict a “soft landing” in 2025 with a possible gentle recovery thereafter cbreemail.com – though any future rally will likely be far more moderate than the double-digit annual gains seen in 2021–2022.

展望 2025 年之后，一旦市场完成修正，并且台湾经济保持稳定，台北房地产的长期轨迹谨慎乐观 但不会爆发。台北是政治和经济中心，土地供应受限，因此住房需求将持续存在。人口结构变化（老龄化、家庭规模缩小）可能会限制需求增长，但城市更新和科技产业发展（如人工智能、半导体中心）可能提供新的驱动力。重要的是，如果未来几年通货膨胀和利率缓解，一些被压抑的需求可能会重新进入市场。当地专家预测 2025 年将实现 “软着陆”，随后可能会有温和复苏——尽管未来的任何反弹可能远比 2021-2022 年看到的两位数年增幅要温和得多。

Impacts of Government Policies, Taxes, and Regulations

政府政策、税收和法规的影响

Taiwan’s government has been proactive in implementing policies to cool the housing market and promote affordability, and these measures are significantly shaping Taipei’s real estate dynamics in 2025. Key policy tools include tax reforms, credit controls, and regulatory restrictions:

台湾政府在实施政策以 降温房地产市场和促进可负担性 方面表现积极，这些措施正在显著塑造 2025 年台北的房地产动态。关键政策工具包括 税收改革、信贷控制和监管限制：

Selective Credit Controls: Taiwan’s Central Bank has introduced multiple rounds of mortgage tightening (by late 2024, it was the seventh round of such controls taiwannews.com.tw). In September 2024, new rules cut allowable loan-to-value (LTV) ratios for second-home mortgages by 10%, and even more for third homes and luxury properties taiwanhousing.tw. For instance, a buyer who could previously borrow 80% for a second property might now get only 60–70%. Additionally, interest-only grace periods on mortgages were eliminated – all borrowers must start repaying principal immediately taiwanhousing.tw taiwanhousing.tw. These rules, initially targeting the big six cities, were expanded nationwide to prevent speculative flows to smaller cities taiwanhousing.tw taiwanhousing.tw. The impact has been profound: banks now demand higher down payments (often 30–40% from even local buyers, and 50%+ down payment for many foreign buyers in practice) taiwanhousing.tw taiwanhousing.tw. Stricter income and background checks are in place to weed out fake “first-time buyers” who are actually proxies for investors taipeitimes.com. Overall, getting a mortgage in Taipei is much tougher now than a couple of years ago – a deliberate move to curb leverage and cool speculation.
“House Hoarding Tax 2.0” and Property Tax Reforms: In mid-2024, Taiwan passed significant housing tax reforms aimed at penalizing multiple-home ownership and encouraging owner-occupancy. Often dubbed the House Hoarding Tax 2.0, the new system raised the annual property tax rates on non-owner-occupied homes to 2%–4.8% (from the previous 1.5%–3.6%), while cutting the rate for owner-occupied primary residences to 1% (from 1.2%) taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. This took effect in July 2024 with taxes payable from 2025. Importantly, the law changed how authorities count homeownership: instead of per-city, it’s now a nationwide registry, preventing investors from claiming multiple “primary homes” in different cities to dodge higher taxes taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. For Taipei homeowners, this means if you own two or more houses anywhere in Taiwan that aren’t rented for social purposes or your residence, you’ll face a much steeper tax bill. On the flip side, genuine owner-occupiers (including foreign residents with local residency permits) benefit: foreign permanent residents in Taiwan who live in their home are now eligible for the same low 1% self-use house tax rate taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. Roughly 16,000 foreigners are expected to benefit from these preferential rates starting 2025, as long as they register their residence and it’s not rented out taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com. This policy underscores the government’s “housing for use, not speculation” stance. Early signs show it’s working: the one-home tax break and higher holding costs on extra homes have nudged more owners to sell secondary units and boosted the share of first-home buyers taiwanhousing.tw taiwanhousing.tw.
Capital Gains and Speculation Tax: Even earlier, in July 2021, Taiwan introduced tougher taxes on short-term property transactions to discourage flipping english.ey.gov.tw. Under these rules often called the consolidated housing and land income tax 2.0, properties sold within 2 years of purchase incur up to 45% tax on the gains (and 35% if sold within 2–5 years). This has significantly increased the cost of quick flips. By 2024, evidence of speculation (e.g. quick resales of pre-sale contracts) had subsided somewhat, as holding a property for only a few months is no longer lucrative due to punitive taxes english.ey.gov.tw. The government also cracked down on developers who hoard unsold new units – for example, there are higher taxes on unsold new housing inventory to prod developers to release units to the market taiwannews.com.tw. Taipei, being a prime market, saw many such policy targets and has arguably benefited: transaction data suggest fewer ultra-short-term deals and more listings of previously hoarded units, easing upward price pressure.
Housing Regulations and Social Housing: Beyond taxes, the Taipei city government and national government have taken regulatory steps such as tightening rules on pre-sale purchase and assignment. Pre-sale homes now have stricter transparency requirements and limits to prevent buyers from selling the contract before completion (a common speculative practice). Additionally, social housing programs have been expanded – Taipei City has been building thousands of affordable rental units for lower-income and younger residents. While not directly affecting private market prices much yet, the presence of public housing aims to provide an alternative and put moral pressure on landlords of subpar units. The central government’s ongoing “Healthy Real Estate Market Plan” includes measures like closer scrutiny of farmhouse land transactions (to prevent loopholes) and preventing excessive credit to real estate at the expense of other sectors mof.gov.tw.

选择性信贷控制： 台湾中央银行已推出多轮按揭收紧措施（截至 2024 年底，这是第七轮此类控制）。在 2024 年 9 月，新规将第二套房按揭的 贷款价值比（LTV） 降低了 10%，第三套房和豪宅的比例则更低。举例来说，之前可以借到 80% 的第二套房买家，现在可能只能借到 60% 到 70%。此外，按揭的 只还利息宽限期 被取消——所有借款人必须立即开始偿还本金。这些规则最初针对六大城市，后来扩展到全国，以防止投机资金流向小城市。影响深远：银行现在要求更高的首付款（通常是当地买家的 30% 到 40%，而 许多外国买家在实际操作中需要 50% 以上的首付款）。更严格的收入和背景审查措施也在实施，以剔除那些实际上是投资者代理的 “首次购房者”。总体而言，在台北获得按揭贷款现在比几年前困难得多——这是为了遏制杠杆和降温投机的故意举措。
“房屋囤积税 2.0” 和物业税改革： 在 2024 年中，台湾通过了重要的 住房税改革，旨在惩罚多套房产的拥有者并鼓励自住。新系统通常被称为_房屋囤积税 2.0_，将非自住房产的年物业税率提高至 2%–4.8%（从之前的 1.5%–3.6%），同时 将自住主要住宅的税率降低至 1%（从 1.2%）。这一政策于 2024 年 7 月生效，税款从 2025 年开始缴纳。重要的是，法律改变了当局计算房屋拥有权的方式：不再按城市计算，而是建立了 全国性登记，防止投资者在不同城市声称拥有多套 “主要住宅” 以逃避更高的税收。对于台北的房主来说，这意味着如果您在台湾任何地方拥有两套或更多房屋且未用于社会目的或自住，您将面临更高的税单。相反，真正的自住者（包括持有当地居留证的外国居民）将受益：在台湾居住的外国永久居民 现在有资格享受相同的 1% 自用房屋税率。预计大约有 16,000 名外国人将从 2025 年开始享受这些优惠税率，只要他们登记居住且未出租。这项政策强调了政府 “住房用于居住，而非投机” 的立场。早期迹象显示政策有效：单套住房的税收减免和额外住房的持有成本上升促使更多业主出售次要单位，并提高了首次购房者的比例。
资本利得和投机税： 更早之前，在 2021 年 7 月，台湾推出了 更严格的短期物业交易税 以抑制投机。根据这些规则，通常称为综合住房和土地所得税 2.0，购买后 2 年内出售的物业需对收益征收高达 45% 的税（如果在 2 到 5 年内出售则为 35%）。这显著增加了快速转手的成本。到 2024 年，投机的证据（例如，预售合同的快速转售）有所减少，因为 持有物业仅几个月已不再因惩罚性税收而有利可图。政府还打击囤积未售新单位的开发商——例如，对未售新住房库存征收更高的税，以促使开发商将单位释放到市场。作为一个主要市场，台北成为许多政策目标，且可以说受益：交易数据显示超短期交易减少，之前囤积的单位上市增多，缓解了价格上涨压力。
住房法规和社会住房： 除了税收，台北市政府和国家政府还采取了监管措施，例如收紧预售购买和转让的规则。预售房屋现在有更严格的透明度要求和限制，以防止买家在完成之前出售合同（这是一种常见的投机行为）。此外，社会住房项目 也得到了扩展——台北市正在为低收入和年轻居民建设数千个可负担的租赁单位。虽然目前对私人市场价格的直接影响不大，但公共住房的存在旨在提供替代方案，并对劣质单位的房东施加道德压力。中央政府正在进行的 “健康房地产市场计划” 包括更严格审查农舍土地交易（以防止漏洞）和防止对房地产的过度信贷，以保护其他行业。

The combined impact of these policies in 2025 is a market with far less speculative fever. Investors now face higher carrying costs (annual taxes) and lower leverage, making it less attractive to hold empty apartments in Taipei waiting for price gains. Many multiple-home owners are offloading units or refraining from new purchases, which increases supply for end-users. Meanwhile, genuine buyers benefit from slightly lower prices and tax breaks on their primary home. On the regulatory side, the playing field is a bit fairer: foreign buyers, for example, are treated more equally for tax if they actually reside in their Taipei home taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw, though they still face bank hurdles (banks prefer locals or at least foreigners with local income for mortgages taiwanhousing.tw taiwanhousing.tw).

这些政策在 2025 年的 综合影响 是市场的 投机热度大幅降低。投资者现在面临更高的持有成本（年度税收）和更低的杠杆，使得在台北持有空置公寓以等待价格上涨的吸引力降低。许多多套房产的拥有者正在出售单位或停止新购，这增加了最终用户的供应。同时，真正的买家受益于略微降低的价格和对主要住宅的税收减免。在监管方面，竞争环境变得更加公平：例如，外国买家如果实际居住在台北的家中，税收待遇更加平等，尽管他们仍面临银行的障碍（银行更倾向于当地人或至少是有当地收入的外国人申请按揭）。

It’s important to note that these policy measures are not without side effects. They have contributed to the current drop in sales and sentiment – essentially pricking what some viewed as a housing “bubble.” The Central Bank has warned of Taiwan’s housing market being over-leveraged and aims to avoid a hard landing like in China taiwannews.com.tw. So far, a gradual deflation of the bubble seems to be happening: Q4 2024’s 6.6% price drop was a direct result of the September credit curbs and stricter financial inspections that “hit the market hard” taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. Policymakers seem willing to tolerate a short-term slowdown in order to achieve long-term stability and housing affordability improvements. Buyers and sellers in Taipei have adapted to this new normal of heavy government involvement. Anyone looking to invest or purchase must be aware of these rules – ignoring them can be costly (e.g. a foreign buyer might be surprised by needing 50% down and immediate full repayments, or an investor might mis-price their returns with the new taxes).

需要注意的是，这些 政策措施并非没有副作用。它们导致了当前销售和情绪的下降——本质上刺破了某些人视为房地产 “泡沫” 的现象。中央银行警告称台湾的房地产市场过度杠杆，旨在避免像中国那样的硬着陆。到目前为止，泡沫的逐步去泡沫化似乎正在发生：2024 年第四季度 6.6% 的价格下跌直接源于 九月的信贷限制和更严格的金融检查，这些措施对市场造成了 “严重冲击”。政策制定者似乎愿意容忍短期的放缓，以实现长期的稳定和 住房可负担性改善。台北的买家和卖家已经适应了这种政府高度介入的新常态。任何想要投资或购房的人都必须了解这些规则——忽视它们可能会造成高昂的代价（例如，外国买家可能会惊讶于需要 50% 的首付和立即全额还款，或者投资者可能会因新税收而错误估算回报）。

In summary, government policies in 2025 are fundamentally reshaping Taipei’s real estate: tamping down speculation, nudging the market toward end-user driven activity, and slowly steering prices toward more sustainable levels. These measures are a key reason the market outlook is stable-to-slow rather than boom-or-bust.

总之，2025 年的政府政策正在根本上重塑台北的房地产：抑制投机，推动市场向以最终用户为驱动的活动转变，并缓慢引导价格朝向更可持续的水平。这些措施是市场前景稳定至缓慢而非繁荣或崩溃的关键原因。

Investment Opportunities and Risks

投资机会与风险

From an investment perspective, Taipei real estate in 2025 presents a mix of cautionary tales and selective opportunities. The market’s recent performance suggests that investors must be very strategic and long-term oriented, as quick profits are no longer easy. Here we break down opportunities and risks:

从投资的角度来看，2025 年的台北房地产呈现出 警示故事与选择性机会的混合。市场近期的表现表明，投资者必须 非常具有战略性和长期导向，因为快速获利已不再容易。以下是机会与风险的分析：

Key Opportunities:

关键机会：

Buyer’s Market Conditions: The current slump offers well-capitalized buyers a chance to enter Taipei’s housing market on better terms than a few years ago. With prices correcting slightly and sellers more open to negotiation, investors (especially those looking for a primary residence or long-term hold) can negotiate favorable deals in 2025 taipeitimes.com taiwannews.com.tw. For example, a luxury condo in Xinyi that might have had zero discounts in 2022 could potentially be acquired at 10% below asking now. End-users planning to live in the property stand to benefit the most, as they can take advantage of lower tax rates for owner-occupiers and lock in historically low interest rates before any future rises.
Prime Locations Hold Value: Even during the correction, Taipei’s prime districts (Daan, Xinyi, etc.) have retained value better than others taiwannews.com.tw. These central areas, with their limited supply and strong amenities, are more “resilient” – they dipped only ~2–3% in late 2024 vs. much larger drops in fringe cities taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. Investors with a long horizon may find central Taipei properties a relatively safe asset in Taiwan, offering capital preservation and prestige. Should the market rebound in a few years, prime areas typically lead the recovery. In addition, high-end segments in Taipei are somewhat insulated by wealth (many owners are high-net-worth individuals who are less pressured to sell).
Emerging Districts and Redevelopments: Taipei continues to undergo urban renewal. Districts such as Nangang (with the growing tech office cluster and new MRT lines) or parts of New Taipei like Banqiao and Xinzhuang (with new infrastructure and rezoning projects) offer growth potential. Prices there are lower than downtown Taipei but could appreciate as these areas develop into secondary commercial hubs. For instance, Taoyuan’s Qingpu area (slightly outside Taipei) has drawn many young buyers due to new transport links taiwannews.com.tw – an example of how connectivity can drive real estate value. Investors looking beyond Taipei City might consider these peri-urban hotspots which benefit from spillover demand and government development plans.
Logistics and Industrial Real Estate: As mentioned, the logistics sector is thriving. Investors (particularly institutional players or REITs) could explore warehouse acquisitions or development on Taipei’s outskirts. Modern logistic facilities enjoy strong demand from e-commerce, and yields there are higher than residential yields. Taiwan’s position in high-tech manufacturing and the need for inventory storage also underpin this segment. Similarly, science park real estate around Hsinchu or Taichung, though outside Taipei, can be an opportunity – serving the semiconductor supply chain (however, one must be wary of volatility tied to tech cycles).
Foreign Buyer Niche: Taiwan is one of the few places in the Chinese-speaking world where foreigners can own freehold property investasian.com, and Taipei is a very livable city. While foreigners face the same market risks as locals (and strict reciprocity and residency rules), those planning to live in Taiwan might find Taipei real estate attractive for lifestyle reasons. With the new tax law treating foreign residents like locals for primary homes taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw, a foreign professional living in Taipei could buy a home and enjoy low holding taxes (1% annually) – a relative bargain compared to many global cities. This is more of a lifestyle opportunity than a pure investment play, but over long periods, owning in Taipei can hedge against rent inflation and currency changes.

买方市场条件： 当前的低迷为资金充足的买家提供了比几年前更好的进入台北住房市场的机会。随着价格略微修正，卖家更愿意进行谈判，投资者（尤其是那些寻求主要居所或长期持有的投资者）可以在 2025 年 谈判出有利的交易。例如，2022 年可能没有折扣的信义区豪华公寓，现在可能以低于要价 10% 的价格获得。计划在该物业居住的最终用户将受益最大，因为他们可以利用业主的较低税率，并在未来任何上涨之前锁定历史低利率。
优质地段保持价值： 即使在调整期间，台北的优质区域（大安、信义等）保持价值的能力优于其他区域。这些中心区域由于供应有限和强大的配套设施，更加 “有韧性”——它们在 2024 年底仅下跌约 2-3%，而边缘城市则大幅下跌。拥有较长投资周期的投资者可能会发现 台北市中心的物业在台湾是相对安全的资产，提供资本保值和声望。如果市场在几年内反弹，优质区域通常会引领复苏。此外，台北的高端市场在一定程度上受到财富的保护（许多业主是高净值个人，他们不太受迫于出售）。
新兴区域和再开发： 台北继续进行城市更新。像南港（拥有不断增长的科技办公集群和新的捷运线路）或新北市的板桥和新庄（拥有新的基础设施和重新规划项目）等区域提供了增长潜力。那里的价格低于台北市中心，但随着这些地区发展成为次级商业中心，可能会升值。例如，桃园的青埔地区（稍微位于台北之外）由于新的交通连接吸引了许多年轻买家——这是连接性如何推动房地产价值的一个例子。希望超越台北市的投资者可能会考虑这些 城市边缘热点，它们受益于溢出需求和政府发展计划。
物流和工业房地产： 如前所述，物流行业蓬勃发展。投资者（特别是机构投资者或房地产投资信托）可以探索在台北郊区的仓库收购或开发。现代物流设施受到电子商务的强劲需求，收益率高于住宅收益率。台湾在高科技制造业中的地位以及对库存存储的需求也支撑了这一领域。同样，位于新竹或台中的 科技园区房地产，尽管位于台北之外，也可以成为一个机会——服务于半导体供应链（然而，必须警惕与科技周期相关的波动）。
外国买家细分市场： 台湾是华语世界中少数几个允许外国人拥有永久产权的地方之一，台北是一个非常宜居的城市。虽然外国人面临与当地人相同的市场风险（以及严格的互惠和居留规则），但那些计划在台湾生活的人可能会因为生活方式的原因而发现台北房地产具有吸引力。随着新税法将外国居民视为本地居民，外国专业人士在台北可以购买住房并享受低持有税（每年 1%）——与许多全球城市相比，这是一种相对划算的选择。这更多是一种 生活方式机会 而非纯粹的投资机会，但在长期内，拥有台北的房产可以对抗租金通胀和货币变化。

Key Risks:

关键风险：

Overvaluation and Low Yields: By many metrics, Taipei’s property is overpriced relative to fundamentals. Rental yields around 2% mean that after property taxes, maintenance, and inflation, an investor’s net return from renting out a Taipei apartment is often near zero investasian.com investasian.com. This is a glaring risk: one is essentially betting solely on capital appreciation. If prices stagnate or fall, the investment could underperform basic savings or other assets. With an average 30 ping ( ~100 m²) apartment costing US$600k–$700k in Taipei investasian.com investasian.com, the cost-to-income ratio is extreme – local salaries (~US$1,500/month median) simply do not support such prices investasian.com investasian.com. There is a real risk of a longer-term price correction or at least years of price stagnation as incomes catch up. International comparisons are telling: Taipei is nearly as expensive as Singapore per square meter, without the same global financial center status or land scarcity investasian.com investasian.com. This suggests limited upside in the near future.
Policy and Regulatory Risk: The government’s heavy hand means policy can change investment math overnight. For example, a new “anti-hoarding” tax or further credit tightening could be implemented if prices don’t moderate enough. Foreign investors face the risk of changing reciprocity treaties or additional barriers if, say, geopolitical relations sour. Even now, foreigners must ensure their home country allows Taiwanese to buy property there, or Taiwan won’t allow them to buy (reciprocity rule) taiwanhousing.tw. Mainland Chinese buyers, who were once supporting segments of Taipei’s luxury market, have largely disappeared after Beijing restricted overseas purchases investasian.com investasian.com – a reminder that political decisions can pull out a whole class of buyers. Continued cross-strait tensions or any instability can also impact values (Taipei’s risk profile includes earthquake and military conflict risk, which some foreign investors find concerning investasian.com).
Illiquidity and Leverage Risk: With volumes down and transactions at multi-year lows, real estate in Taipei has become less liquid. An investor might find it takes significantly longer to sell a property now than during the boom. If one has leveraged up (though leverage is now limited, some investors still take secondary loans or unregulated financing), they could be stuck in a down market with carrying costs. The cost of carry has risen with new taxes: owning multiple vacant flats means paying up to 4.8% of assessed value in tax yearly taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw – a steep bill that can eat into an investor’s capital if prices aren’t rising. Should interest rates rise in the future (not expected immediately, but a risk in a few years), highly leveraged owners could be squeezed further.
Competition from Other Markets: Regionally, investors may find better prospects elsewhere. For instance, Malaysia or Vietnam offer higher rental yields and growth, Singapore offers more stability, etc. investasian.com investasian.com. There’s an opportunity cost to parking capital in a flat market. Some analysts openly suggest that Taiwan’s real estate has “very little profit left” and that one could find better returns in frontier markets or even other asset classes investasian.com investasian.com. The risk for an investor is that Taipei’s market might underperform for a decade while their money could have compounded elsewhere.

高估与低收益： 从多个指标来看，台北的房地产相对于基本面被高估。租金收益率约为 2%，这意味着在扣除物业税、维护费用和通货膨胀后，投资者从出租台北公寓中获得的净回报往往接近于零。这是一个明显的风险：投资者实际上是在单纯押注资本增值。如果价格停滞或下跌，投资可能会表现不如基本储蓄或其他资产。以台北平均 30 坪（约 100 平方米）公寓的价格在 60 万到 70 万美元之间，成本与收入的比例极为不合理——当地工资（中位数约为 1500 美元/月）根本无法支撑这样的价格。长期价格修正的真实风险，或者至少是收入追赶的多年价格停滞。国际比较显示：台北每平方米的价格几乎与新加坡相当，但没有同样的全球金融中心地位或土地稀缺性。这表明近期上涨空间有限。
政策与监管风险： 政府的强势干预意味着政策 可以在一夜之间改变投资的数学。例如，如果价格没有足够缓和，可能会实施新的 “反囤积” 税或进一步收紧信贷。外国投资者面临着互惠条约或额外障碍变化的风险，例如，如果地缘政治关系恶化。即使现在，外国人也必须确保他们的母国允许台湾人在那里购买房产，否则台湾将不允许他们购买（互惠规则）。曾经支持台北奢侈市场的大陆买家，在北京限制海外购房后大多消失——这提醒我们，政治决策可能会使一整个买家群体退出市场。持续的 两岸紧张关系 或任何不稳定因素也可能影响房产价值（台北的风险特征包括地震和军事冲突风险，这让一些外国投资者感到担忧）。
流动性与杠杆风险： 随着交易量下降，交易处于多年低点，台北的房地产变得不那么流动。投资者可能会发现，现在出售房产所需的时间显著长于繁荣时期。如果一个人已经加杠杆（尽管现在杠杆有限，一些投资者仍然会采取二次贷款或不受监管的融资），他们可能会在下行市场中被困，承担持有成本。持有成本 因新税收而上升：拥有多套空置公寓意味着每年需支付高达 4.8% 的评估价值作为税款——这是一笔沉重的账单，如果价格没有上涨，可能会侵蚀投资者的资本。如果未来利率上升（虽然预计不会立即发生，但在几年内是一个风险），高杠杆的业主可能会进一步受到挤压。
来自其他市场的竞争： 在区域内，投资者可能会发现其他地方的前景更好。例如，马来西亚或越南 提供更高的租金收益和增长，新加坡 则提供更多的稳定性等。将资本停放在一个平淡的市场中存在 机会成本。一些分析师公开表示，台湾的房地产 “几乎没有利润可言”，并且可以在前沿市场甚至其他资产类别中找到 更好的回报。投资者面临的风险是，台北的市场可能会在十年内表现不佳，而他们的资金本可以在其他地方增值。

In summary, investing in Taipei real estate in 2025 is a cautious game. It can make sense for those seeking a home or a long-term store of value in a prime location, and there are pockets of growth (logistics, certain districts). However, speculative investing for quick gains is largely out – the market “begs for a correction” and arguably is undergoing one investasian.com investasian.com. Prudent investors will weigh the low yield/high price environment carefully. Risk mitigation strategies include: focusing on properties with unique value (e.g., near top schools or upcoming MRT lines), keeping leverage low, and maintaining a long investment horizon to ride out cycles. Also, diversification is key – many local investors historically put a huge share of wealth into property; the current climate suggests balancing with other investments to reduce exposure to this slow market phase.

总之，在 2025 年投资台北房地产是一场谨慎的游戏。对于那些寻求在优质地段拥有一个家或长期价值储存的人来说，这可能是合理的，并且有一些增长的空间（物流、某些区域）。然而，投机性投资以获取快速收益在很大程度上已不再可行——市场 “迫切需要修正”，并且可以说正在经历这样的过程。谨慎的投资者将仔细权衡 低收益/高价格 的环境。风险缓解策略包括：关注具有独特价值的物业（例如，靠近顶级学校或即将开通的捷运线路），保持低杠杆，并保持较长的投资视野以度过周期。此外，分散投资是关键——许多当地投资者历史上将大量财富投入房地产；当前的气候表明，应与其他投资进行平衡，以减少对这一缓慢市场阶段的暴露。

District-Level Real Estate Dynamics in Taipei

台北地区房地产动态

Taipei City is a collection of diverse districts, each with its own real estate profile. Property prices and demand differ markedly from district to district, influenced by factors like location, development, amenities, and new supply. Here’s a breakdown of Taipei’s real estate dynamics at the district level:

台北市是一个由多样化区域组成的集合，每个区域都有其独特的房地产特征。各区的房价和需求差异显著，受位置、开发、设施和新供应等因素的影响。以下是台北各区房地产动态的细分：

Da’an District: Renowned as Taipei’s most prestigious residential district, Da’an consistently has the highest property values in the city. It’s centrally located (home to Da’an Forest Park, top schools, and National Taiwan University nearby) and well-served by MRT lines. In recent data, average prices in Da’an range roughly NT$1.2–2.0 million per ping (US$400k–650k per 3.3m²) for apartments taiwanhousing.tw taiwanhousing.tw. This puts a standard 30 ping (99 m²) Da’an apartment easily above NT$36 million (US$1.2M). Da’an’s desirability (for both locals and expats) keeps demand resilient. Even in the 2024–25 correction, Da’an prices have held up; it’s often the benchmark for Taipei’s luxury market. However, being a mature area, new supply in Da’an is limited – most properties are resales or redevelopments of older buildings. Investors prize Da’an for its stability and liquidity (there’s always some demand for Taipei’s “Beverly Hills”).
Xinyi District: The modern Xinyi district – Taipei’s finance and shopping hub, where Taipei 101 is located – rivals Da’an for top spot. Xinyi’s upscale condos in the 101 vicinity and “Xinyi Planning Area” often see prices in the same ballpark as Da’an (NT$1M+ per ping) vpon.com. The area around Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hall and Xinyi Anhe MRT is particularly pricey vpon.com. Xinyi’s appeal is its luxury high-rises, entertainment amenities, and corporate offices; it’s the go-to district for high-end developments. Real estate dynamics here include a mix of residential and office components – some units in Xinyi are serviced apartments or mixed-use. Supply is still growing slightly (e.g., new luxury towers like the Taipei Sky Tower project). In 2025, Xinyi condos remain in demand, though the ultra-high prices mean the pool of buyers is small. Many owners are wealthy families or investors from Taiwan’s business elite. The rental market in Xinyi caters to expatriates and executives, but yields are low relative to price. During the recent market slowdown, Xinyi saw fewer transactions, but prices haven’t notably crumbled – sellers prefer to hold unless they get their asking, knowing Xinyi’s unique cachet.
Zhongzheng and Songshan: These districts form part of Taipei’s core as well. Zhongzheng District (which includes the Presidential Office, Chiang Kai-shek Memorial area) has a mix of government offices and older residential neighborhoods. It has some luxury pockets (e.g. near National Taiwan University Hospital area or civic center), but also many older buildings. Average prices in Zhongzheng are just slightly below Da’an – roughly in the NT$800k–900k per ping range as of a couple years ago vpon.com. Songshan District, especially in areas like Minsheng Community and around Nanjing East Road, is another high-price area with averages often above NT$800k per ping vpon.com. Both districts have convenient access and established communities. During the boom, these areas saw gentler growth compared to outskirts (because they were already high), and in the cooling they’ve had gentle declines. Songshan has some new upscale projects (e.g. around the Taipei Arena and in Nanjing/Fuxing vicinity) that keep its profile high. Zhongzheng, with many old apartments, might see more redevelopment in coming years due to urban renewal programs targeting aging buildings.
Zhongshan and Shilin: Zhongshan District is partly very central (the corridor running north of Taipei Main Station through Zhongshan MRT and up to Dazhi/Mirramar area). It’s a district of contrasts: trendy upscale enclaves near Zhongshan MRT and Dunhua North, but also older low-rise neighborhoods. Certain parts like Dazhi/Tianmu (which is actually in Shilin District, but adjacent to Zhongshan’s Dazhi) host expatriate communities and large luxury units. Zhongshan’s average prices are high-mid range (~NT$750k/ping in 2022 data) vpon.com, buoyed by pockets of wealth. Shilin District on average is slightly cheaper (~NT$650k/ping) vpon.com, but it contains Tianmu, a wealthy suburb-like area where houses and apartments can be very pricey (Tianmu often rivals Da’an on a per ping basis for luxury homes). Shilin also includes much of Yangmingshan (mountain area), with some luxury villas and also cheaper older homes. In 2025, Shilin and Zhongshan see stable demand especially from families – Shilin for its space and international schools (good for expats), Zhongshan for its centrality. The MRT extension (Red line) into Tianmu is not yet realized, so those areas rely on buses/car, tempering demand growth.
Neihu and Nangang: These two eastern districts are Taipei’s tech and business parks. Neihu became a technology hub with many IT corporate headquarters and also has middle-class residential neighborhoods. Nangang has the Nangang Software Park, Exhibition Center, and a growing number of high-rises. Real estate in Neihu has average prices in mid-tier (~NT$600k/ping) vpon.com, although some new projects top NT$800k. Nangang was historically cheaper, but with all the development, parts of it have risen quickly. Both districts have seen significant new supply – modern condos aimed at young professionals who work in the area, often at slightly more affordable prices than downtown. The completion of the Circular Line MRT and other transit improvements boosted their appeal. However, they are also more exposed to market swings; when the market was hot, Neihu/Nangang prices jumped fast, and when it cools, these districts have many units on the market. In 2025, if one is looking for a newer condo with facilities at a (relatively) lower cost, Neihu and Nangang provide options. Vacancy in some new buildings is notable, though, so buyers can negotiate deals (developers might offer discounts or perks on remaining units).
Wanhua, Datong, Wenshan, Beitou: These districts generally represent the more “affordable” side of Taipei City (though affordable is very relative here). Wanhua is Taipei’s oldest district (historically called Mangka or Bangka) and has many heritage sites, but also a stigma as a less affluent area. It consistently has one of the lowest average house prices in the city – around NT$500–700k per ping on average (some old flats even under NT$400k/ping) newhouse.591.com.tw price.cthouse.com.tw. Wanhua’s Ximending area has seen new development (e.g., some high-rises marketed to young buyers), but overall it remains cheaper. In 2024–25, Wanhua’s lower price point actually attracted first-time buyers; one can get a small apartment for NT$10–15 million, which is almost impossible in Da’an or Xinyi estate.ltn.com.tw estate.ltn.com.tw. Datong is adjacent to Wanhua, with historic Dihua Street and traditional markets. It also has lower-mid prices (~NT$630k/ping in 2022) vpon.com vpon.com and has been undergoing gentrification. Wenshan (southernmost, including Muzha) is a quieter residential area with good MRT (Brown line) coverage; prices there can be under NT$700k/ping as well, and it’s popular for families seeking better air and more space (it borders the zoo and hills). Beitou (northern hot spring district) has a mix – hot spring luxury condos versus older buildings. Average is in NT$600–700k range. These outer districts tend to see less volatile price changes – they didn’t soar as much in the boom, so they aren’t dropping as much now. They benefit from “bargain hunting” when buyers who are priced out of central Taipei look for any Taipei address they can afford. Indeed, some of the best-selling residential communities in 2024 were in Wanhua, precisely because a NT$10–12 million budget could get a new small flat there – something impossible in eastern districts facebook.com estate.ltn.com.tw.
New Taipei City (surrounding districts): While not part of Taipei City proper, it’s relevant to consider that districts just outside Taipei’s border (in New Taipei) strongly affect and are affected by Taipei’s market. Areas like Yonghe and Zhonghe (just across the river from southern Taipei), and Banqiao (to the southwest) have seen their prices climb to near-Taipei levels. In fact, Yonghe and Zhonghe in New Taipei have some neighborhoods with prices on par with Taipei’s lesser districts – they are extremely dense and sought-after due to short commutes (just a bridge away from Taipei). According to one analysis, Yonghe, Zhonghe, and Banqiao now boast per-ping prices approaching those of Taipei’s cheaper districts, often exceeding NT$600–800k/ping in top projects vpon.com vpon.com. Banqiao’s new Xinban Special District is a modern city center in its own right, with high-rises, malls, and government offices; it’s a big draw for people leaving Taipei. As noted earlier, Taipei City lost population to these areas – for instance, Taoyuan and New Taipei had net population inflows as people moved out to more affordable housing with new MRT links taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. This city-to-suburb migration trend is likely to persist, meaning strong demand in New Taipei’s close-in districts and a moderation of Taipei City’s growth. Investors might consider New Taipei districts as alternatives: they often offer better rental yields since purchase prices are a bit lower while rents aren’t proportionally lower (since many people are willing to rent there and commute).

大安区： 被誉为台北最负盛名的住宅区，大安区的房产价值始终位居全市最高。该区地理位置优越（附近有大安森林公园、顶尖学校和国立台湾大学），且交通便利，拥有多条捷运线路。根据最新数据，大安区的平均房价大约在 每坪新台币 120 万至 200 万（每 3.3 平方米约合 40 万美元至 65 万美元）之间。这使得一套标准的 30 坪（99 平方米）的大安公寓价格轻松超过新台币 3600 万（约合 120 万美元）。大安区的吸引力（对本地居民和外籍人士而言）使得需求保持强劲。即使在 2024-25 年的市场调整中，大安的房价依然坚挺；它常常被视为台北奢侈市场的基准。然而，作为一个成熟区域，大安的新供应有限——大多数房产为二手房或老旧建筑的重建。投资者看重大安的稳定性和流动性（台北的 “比佛利山庄” 总是有一定的需求）。
信义区： 现代的 信义区——台北的金融和购物中心，台北 101 就位于此——与大安区争夺首位。信义区 101 附近及 “信义规划区” 的高档公寓价格通常与大安区相当（每坪新台币 100 万以上）。围绕国父纪念馆和信义安和捷运站的区域尤其昂贵。信义区的吸引力在于其奢华的高楼、娱乐设施和企业办公室；它是高端开发的首选区域。这里的房地产动态包括住宅和办公成分的混合——信义区的一些单元是服务式公寓或混合用途。供应仍在略微增长（例如，台北天空塔等新奢华大楼项目）。到 2025 年，信义区的公寓仍然有需求，尽管超高的价格意味着买家池相对较小。许多业主是富裕家庭或来自台湾商业精英的投资者。信义区的租赁市场主要面向外籍人士和高管，但相对于价格，收益较低。在最近的市场放缓中，信义区的交易量减少，但价格并未显著下跌——卖家更倾向于持有，除非能达到他们的要价，因为信义区独特的魅力。
中正区和松山区： 这两个区域也是台北的核心部分。中正区（包括总统府、蒋介石纪念馆区域）有政府办公楼和老旧住宅区的混合。该区有一些奢华的区域（例如靠近国立台湾大学医院或市民中心），但也有许多老旧建筑。根据几年前的数据，中正区的平均价格略低于大安区——大约在每坪新台币 80 万至 90 万之间。松山区，尤其是在民生社区和南京东路附近，是另一个高价区域，平均价格通常超过每坪新台币 80 万。这两个区域交通便利，社区成熟。在繁荣时期，这些区域的增长相对温和（因为它们已经较高），而在市场降温时，它们的价格也出现了温和的下滑。松山区 有一些新的高档项目（例如围绕台北小巨蛋和南京/复兴附近），保持了其高档形象。中正区 由于许多老公寓，可能在未来几年会因城市更新计划而进行更多重建。
中山区和士林区： 中山区 部分区域非常中心（从台北车站北侧的走廊经过中山捷运站一直到大直/美丽华区域）。这是一个对比鲜明的区域：中山捷运站和敦化北路附近有时尚高档的社区，但也有许多老旧的低层住宅。某些区域如 大直/天母（实际上在士林区，但邻近中山的大直）有外籍人士社区和大型奢华单元。中山区的平均价格处于中高档水平（2022 年数据约为每坪新台币 75 万），受到财富聚集的支撑。士林区 的平均价格略低（约每坪新台币 65 万），但它包含天母，这是一个富裕的郊区，房屋和公寓的价格可能非常高（天母的奢华住宅在每坪价格上常常与大安区相当）。士林区还包括大部分阳明山（山区），有一些奢华别墅和较便宜的老房子。到 2025 年，士林和中山区的 需求稳定，尤其是来自家庭的需求——士林因其空间和国际学校（适合外籍人士）而受欢迎，中山区因其中心位置而受到青睐。捷运延伸（红线）尚未实现，因此这些区域依赖公交/汽车，抑制了需求增长。
内湖和南港： 这两个东部区域是台北的科技和商业园区。内湖成为了一个科技中心，许多 IT 企业总部设在此，同时也有中产阶级住宅区。南港有南港软件园、展览中心和越来越多的高楼。内湖的房地产平均价格处于中档水平（约每坪新台币 60 万），尽管一些新项目的价格超过 80 万。南港历史上价格较低，但随着开发的推进，部分区域的价格迅速上涨。这两个区域都经历了 显著的新供应——现代公寓面向在该地区工作的年轻专业人士，价格通常比市中心稍微实惠。环状线捷运的完工和其他交通改善提升了它们的吸引力。然而，它们也更容易受到市场波动的影响；当市场火热时，内湖/南港的价格迅速上涨，而当市场降温时，这些区域有许多单位待售。到 2025 年，如果有人在寻找设施齐全的较新公寓，内湖和南港提供了选择。一些新建筑的空置率显著，因此买家可以谈判交易（开发商可能会对剩余单位提供折扣或优惠）。
万华、大同、文山区、北投： 这些区域通常代表台北市更 “实惠” 的一面（尽管 “实惠” 在这里是相对的）。万华是台北最古老的区域（历史上称为 Mangka 或 Bangka），有许多遗产景点，但也有作为较不富裕地区的污名。它的平均房价始终是全市最低之一——大约 每坪新台币 50 万至 70 万（一些老公寓甚至低于每坪新台币 40 万）。万华的西门町区域经历了新的开发（例如，一些面向年轻买家的高楼），但总体上仍然较便宜。在 2024-25 年，万华的低价位实际上吸引了首次购房者；在这里可以以新台币 1000 万至 1500 万购得一套小公寓，这在大安或信义区几乎是不可能的。大同区 与万华相邻，有历史悠久的迪化街和传统市场。它的价格也较低（2022 年约为每坪新台币 63 万），并且正在经历城市更新。文山区（最南端，包括木栅）是一个较安静的住宅区，捷运（棕线）覆盖良好；那里的价格也可能低于每坪新台币 70 万，受到寻求更好空气和更多空间的家庭的欢迎（它靠近动物园和山丘）。北投（北部温泉区）则有混合——温泉豪华公寓与老旧建筑。平均价格在新台币 60 万至 70 万之间。这些外部区域往往经历 较少波动的价格变化——在繁荣时期它们并没有飙升，因此现在也没有大幅下跌。它们受益于 “捡漏”，当被中央台北的价格挤出的买家寻找任何他们能负担得起的台北地址时。实际上，2024 年 最畅销的住宅社区在万华，正是因为新台币 1000 万至 1200 万的预算可以在这里购得一套新的小公寓——这是在东区几乎不可能的。
新北市（周边区域）： 虽然不属于台北市本身，但值得考虑的是，台北边界外的区域（在新北市） 对台北市场有着强烈的影响。像 永和和中和（就在台北南部河对岸）以及板桥（西南方向）等区域的房价已攀升至接近台北的水平。事实上，新北市的永和和中和有一些社区的价格与台北的较低区域相当——它们非常密集且受到追捧，因为通勤时间短（距离台北仅一座桥之遥）。根据一项分析，永和、中和和板桥现在的每坪价格接近台北较低区域的水平，在一些顶级项目中常常超过每坪新台币 60 万至 80 万。板桥的新 新板特区 本身就是一个现代城市中心，拥有高楼、购物中心和政府办公楼；它对离开台北的人们具有很大的吸引力。如前所述，台北市的人口流失到这些区域——例如，桃园和新北市的人口净流入，因为人们搬到更实惠的住房，享受新的捷运连接。这种 城市到郊区的迁移 趋势可能会持续，意味着新北市近郊区域的需求强劲，而台北市的增长将趋于平缓。投资者可能会考虑新北市的区域作为替代选择：它们通常提供更好的租金收益，因为购房价格较低，而租金并没有成比例降低（因为许多人愿意在这里租房并通勤）。

To summarize Taipei’s district dynamics: central districts (Da’an, Xinyi, Songshan, etc.) have the highest prices and most stable demand, serving as the barometers of the luxury market. Peripheral districts (Wanhua, Wenshan, etc.) offer relatively lower entry prices and tend to attract first-time buyers and those on budgets, and they can see bursts of activity when affordability worsens in the city center. During the current market softening, we see that luxury districts are resilient but quiet (few forced sales, minor price dips), whereas mid-priced districts see more activity as buyers hunt for deals (but also not a collapse, since their prices weren’t excessively high to begin with). The interplay of Taipei City with New Taipei City is also crucial – improvements in regional transportation (new MRT lines, etc.) can quickly alter demand patterns. For example, when the new Wanda MRT line (under construction) opens, it will connect Wanhua/TVG areas with southern New Taipei, possibly boosting values along that route.

总结台北的区域动态：中心城区（大安区、新兴区、松山区等）价格最高且需求最稳定，是奢侈市场的晴雨表。外围区域（万华区、文山区等）则提供相对较低的入市价格，往往吸引首次购房者和预算有限的买家，当市中心的可负担性恶化时，这些区域会出现活动的高峰。在当前市场放缓的情况下，我们看到 奢侈区表现出韧性但较为平静（几乎没有强制销售，价格小幅下跌），而 中价位区域则更为活跃，买家在寻找交易（但也没有崩溃，因为它们的价格本身并不高）。台北市与新北市的互动也至关重要——区域交通的改善（如新地铁线路等）可以迅速改变需求模式。例如，当新的万大地铁线（正在建设中）开通时，将连接万华/TVG 地区与新北市南部，可能会提升沿线的房价。

Ultimately, real estate in Taipei is highly localized. Prospective buyers or investors should study district-level trends: one neighborhood might be overbuilt and soft, while another a few kilometers away has pent-up demand and limited supply. Taipei’s property market is not monolithic, and a savvy strategy in 2025 is to focus on micro-locations – the “location, location, location” adage holds very true, whether it’s proximity to an MRT station, a top school district, or a new development zone.

最终，台北的房地产市场高度本地化。潜在买家或投资者应研究区域级别的趋势：一个社区可能过度开发且市场疲软，而几公里外的另一个社区则可能有被压抑的需求和有限的供应。台北的房地产市场并非单一化，2025 年的明智策略是关注 微位置——无论是靠近地铁站、顶级学区，还是新的开发区，_“位置、位置、位置”_的格言在这里非常适用。

Taipei vs. Other Major Taiwanese Cities: A Comparison

台北与其他主要台湾城市的比较

When comparing Taipei’s real estate market to other major Taiwanese cities such as Taichung and Kaohsiung (as well as New Taipei, Tainan, and Taoyuan), several distinctions emerge in terms of price levels, trends, and market drivers.

在将台北的房地产市场与其他主要台湾城市（如台中、高雄，以及新北市、台南和桃园）进行比较时，价格水平、趋势和市场驱动因素 等方面出现了几项区别。

Price Levels: Taipei is by far the most expensive city in Taiwan for real estate. Even Taipei’s average home price per ping (㎡) dwarfs those in other cities. In early 2025, Taipei City’s average was about NT$1.233 million per ping taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw, whereas other cities are generally a fraction of that. For instance, Hsinchu City – boosted by the tech industry – was the second priciest with around NT$594k per ping on average taiwannews.com.tw. Taoyuan’s average presale house price was about NT$372k per ping in 2025 taiwannews.com.tw. Taichung and Kaohsiung typically range in the NT$200k–400k per ping for most neighborhoods (with new luxury projects higher). All six special municipalities (Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Taichung, Tainan, Kaohsiung) now have average total home prices over NT$10 million taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com, but you simply get a lot more home for that money outside Taipei. For example, a NT$15 million budget might buy a small 15 ping studio in Taipei, versus a comfortable 40 ping family apartment in Kaohsiung or Taichung.

价格水平： 台北无疑是台湾房地产最昂贵的城市。即使是台北的 每坪（㎡）平均房价 也远超其他城市。在 2025 年初，台北市的平均房价约为 NT$1.233 百万每坪，而其他城市的价格通常只是其一小部分。例如，受科技行业推动的新竹市平均房价约为 NT$594k 每坪，位居第二。2025 年桃园的预售房屋平均价格约为 NT$372k 每坪。台中和高雄大多数社区的价格通常在 NT$200k–400k 每坪之间（新豪华项目更高）。所有六个特区（台北、新北、桃园、台中、台南、高雄）现在的 平均总房价均超过 NT$1000 万，但在台北以外，你可以用同样的钱买到更多的房子。例如，NT$1500 万的预算在台北可能只能买到一间小 15 坪的单间，而在高雄或台中则可以购买到舒适的 40 坪家庭公寓。

Recent Price Trends: During the 2020–2022 boom and into 2023, several non-Taipei cities actually saw faster percentage price growth than Taipei. Low interest rates and pandemic liquidity flowed into regional housing markets. In the first half of 2024, Hsinchu, Taoyuan, Taichung, and Kaohsiung led the nation in price increases – Hsinchu’s house prices jumped 17.1% year-on-year, with Taoyuan up 15.6%, Taichung 14.9%, and Kaohsiung 13.1% taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com. Taipei’s growth was more modest (around 5% in that period) taipeitimes.com. This pattern was sometimes called the “urban diffusion” of the boom: as Taipei got expensive, speculative and genuine buying spread to cities like Taichung (which became Taiwan’s second-largest city by population) and Kaohsiung (attractive due to new infrastructure and industries).

近期价格趋势： 在 2020 年至 2022 年的繁荣期及 2023 年，几个非台北城市的 价格增长百分比实际上超过了台北。低利率和疫情期间的流动性流入了区域住房市场。在 2024 年上半年，新竹、桃园、台中和高雄在全国价格上涨中领先——新竹的房价同比上涨 17.1%，桃园上涨 15.6%，台中上涨 14.9%，高雄上涨 13.1%。台北的增长则较为温和（在该期间约为 5%）。这种模式有时被称为_“城市扩散”_的繁荣：随着台北变得昂贵，投机性和真实的购买活动扩展到台中（成为台湾第二大城市）和高雄（因新基础设施和产业而具有吸引力）。

However, in the ensuing market correction (late 2024), those cities that overshot are seeing larger corrections. As mentioned earlier, Q4 2024 saw prices drop in all major cities, but Kaohsiung and Tainan fell the most (around 10% QoQ in Kaohsiung, 7% in Tainan) taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. Taichung and Taoyuan had moderate drops (~3–5%), and Taipei/New Taipei the smallest (~2–3%) taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. This highlights a key difference: Taipei’s market, though expensive, is less volatile – it didn’t inflate as rapidly as, say, Kaohsiung, so it didn’t deflate as hard. Kaohsiung’s surge was partly driven by expectations around industrial investments (like TSMC’s planned fabs and other tech projects) and infrastructure (new MRT lines, port redevelopment). When those expectations weren’t immediately met by fundamentals (tech projects delayed, local incomes lagging), a correction ensued taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. Taipei, being more mature, was more tempered.

然而，在随后的 市场修正（2024 年末） 中，那些过度上涨的城市正在经历更大的修正。如前所述，2024 年第四季度所有主要城市的房价均出现下跌，但 高雄和台南的跌幅最大（高雄环比下降约 10%，台南下降 7%）。台中和桃园的跌幅适中（约 3–5%），而台北/新北的跌幅最小（约 2–3%）。这突显了一个关键区别：台北的市场虽然昂贵，但波动性较小——它的价格并没有像高雄那样迅速膨胀，因此也没有像高雄那样剧烈下跌。高雄的上涨部分是由于对工业投资（如台积电计划的工厂和其他科技项目）和基础设施（新地铁线路、港口重建）的预期。当这些预期未能立即被基本面所满足（科技项目延迟，地方收入滞后）时，修正随之而来。台北由于更为成熟，表现得更为温和。

Economic Drivers and Demand: Each city has its own drivers. Taipei is driven by white-collar employment, government presence, and limited land. Taichung, with a population comparable to Taipei, has a more manufacturing-based economy (machinery, aerospace) but also a growing services sector; its housing market benefited from people and businesses relocating there (it’s centrally located and has cheaper land). Kaohsiung historically was industrial (petrochemical, shipping), and it’s now trying to pivot to tech (semiconductor) and tourism. The promise of those new industries drove a lot of speculative buying in 2021-2023 – often dubbed the “TSMC effect.” In Kaohsiung’s Nanzih district (where TSMC is setting up), housing prices reportedly soared nearly 90% from 2020 to 2023 in anticipation straitstimes.com straitstimes.com. That is far above anything seen in Taipei. But, as noted by analysts, Kaohsiung’s local salaries and infrastructure haven’t caught up, so such gains may not be fully sustained taiwannews.com.tw. Tainan had a similar TSMC effect (with the Southern Taiwan Science Park), boosting its previously very low prices. Hsinchu (not a major city by size, but worth mentioning) has the Science Park and the highest incomes in Taiwan, explaining its second-highest home prices. Taoyuan benefits from proximity to Taipei and the international airport, making it a hotbed for affordable housing for Taipei commuters; it has consistently high transaction volumes and population growth (Taoyuan saw the largest net inbound migration in early 2025 among all cities) taiwannews.com.tw.

经济驱动因素和需求： 每个城市都有其自身的驱动因素。台北受白领就业、政府存在和土地有限的驱动。台中的人口与台北相当，但其经济更以制造业为主（机械、航空航天），同时服务业也在增长；其房地产市场受益于人们和企业的迁入（地理位置中心且土地更便宜）。高雄历史上以工业（石化、航运）为主，现在正试图转向科技（半导体）和旅游。新兴产业的前景在 2021-2023 年推动了大量投机性购买——常被称为 “台积电效应。” 在高雄的楠梓区（台积电正在设立的地方），房价据报道在 2020 到 2023 年间 飙升近 90%，这一涨幅远超台北。但正如分析师所指出的，高雄的当地薪资和基础设施尚未跟上，因此这样的涨幅可能无法完全持续。台南也经历了类似的台积电效应（与南部科学园区相关），推动了其之前非常低的房价。新竹（虽然不是大城市，但值得一提）拥有科学园区和台湾最高的收入，解释了其第二高的房价。桃园受益于靠近台北和国际机场，使其成为台北通勤者的经济适用房热土；其交易量和人口增长始终保持高位（桃园在 2025 年初的净迁入人数在所有城市中最大）。

Supply Differences: Taipei’s housing supply is constrained (little empty land, complex redevelopment process), whereas cities like Taichung or Kaohsiung have more room to sprawl or redevelop large tracts. This means oversupply risk is higher outside Taipei. For instance, Taichung in past cycles built too many luxury apartments which then sat unsold. In the current cycle, New Taipei surprisingly had a big cutback in 2024 starts (-62% as noted) due to oversupply in certain zones taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. Taichung had the highest housing starts in 2024 among all regions (33k units) taiwannews.com.tw, which could signal future oversupply there if demand doesn’t keep up. Taipei’s new supply is modest and usually quickly absorbed (if priced right) because of genuine demand and replacement of old buildings. So, investors see Taipei as lower-risk in terms of inventory glut, whereas they must be careful in places like Taichung’s new town areas or Kaohsiung’s outskirts where entire new communities are being built.

供应差异： 台北的住房供应受到限制（空地少，复杂的重建过程），而像台中或高雄这样的城市则有更多的扩展或重建大块土地的空间。这意味着 台北以外的地区面临更高的过剩风险。例如，台中在过去的周期中建造了过多的豪华公寓，导致未售出。在当前周期中，新北市 在 2024 年的开工量意外大幅减少（如所述减少了 62%），这是由于某些区域的过剩。台中在 2024 年所有地区中开工量最高（33,000 套），如果需求跟不上，可能会预示未来的过剩。台北的新供应适中，通常很快被吸收（如果定价合理），因为有真实的需求和旧建筑的替代。因此，投资者认为台北在库存过剩方面风险较低，而在台中的新城镇区域或高雄的郊区，整个新社区正在建设中，投资者必须更加谨慎。

Yield and Investment Climate: Interestingly, rental yields are low across Taiwan, but they are slightly better outside Taipei. In Taipei ~2% is common, but in Kaohsiung or Taichung you might get 2.5–3% in some cases due to the lower property prices. Foreign investment in Taiwan’s property is relatively small and mostly focused on Taipei; other cities don’t see much international buyer activity aside from some overseas Taiwanese. The risk profile differs too – Taipei might be more exposed to certain risks (e.g., it’s the political center, so any conflict would impact it first), while southern cities face different risks (industrial volatility). But broadly, all cities would be impacted by any major national issues like interest rate changes or geopolitical events.

收益和投资环境： 有趣的是，台湾的租金收益普遍较低，但在台北以外的地方略微更好。在台北，约 2% 是常见的，但在高雄或台中，某些情况下可能会达到 2.5%–3%，这主要是由于较低的房价。外国对台湾房地产的投资相对较小，主要集中在台北；其他城市除了少量海外台湾人外，几乎没有国际买家活动。风险特征 也有所不同——台北可能更容易受到某些风险的影响（例如，它是政治中心，因此任何冲突都会首先影响到它），而南部城市面临不同的风险（工业波动）。但总体而言，所有城市都将受到任何重大国家问题的影响，例如利率变化或地缘政治事件。

Policy Impact: The central bank’s credit controls and the new tax laws we discussed apply nationally, so they affect all cities. In fact, some measures initially targeted Taipei and New Taipei (where speculation was worst) and then extended out. Now, an investor in Taichung buying a third home faces the same LTV limits and tax surcharges as one in Taipei taiwanhousing.tw taiwanhousing.tw. This means the playing field in terms of policy is more level than before. It may actually help Taipei retain value – previously speculators avoided Taipei due to higher entry cost and moved to Taichung/Kaohsiung, inflating those markets, but now with rules everywhere, that arbitrage is reduced. We saw this in late 2024 when all cities felt the chill once credit tightened taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw.

政策影响： 中央银行的信贷控制和我们讨论的新税法适用于全国，因此影响所有城市。事实上，一些措施最初针对台北和新北市（投机最严重的地方），然后扩展到其他地区。现在，在台中购买第三套房的投资者面临与台北相同的贷款价值比限制和税收附加费。这意味着政策上的竞争环境比以前更为平衡。这实际上可能有助于台北保持价值——之前投机者因进入成本较高而避开台北，转向台中/高雄，推高了这些市场，但现在由于规则普遍存在，这种套利机会减少了。我们在 2024 年底看到，当 信贷收紧时，所有城市都感受到了寒意。

To put it concisely, Taipei’s real estate is like a high-value blue-chip stock: expensive, relatively stable, lower growth, while cities like Taichung/Kaohsiung are more like growth stocks: cheaper but more volatile and cyclical. Taipei leads in price level; others sometimes lead in growth rate. In the next few years, many expect “tier-2” cities (Taichung, Kaohsiung) to have a bumpy ride – they boomed and now need to digest that. Taipei might see less dramatic swings, but it also means less dramatic gains.

简而言之，台北的房地产就像一只高价值的蓝筹股：昂贵、相对稳定、增长较低，而 像台中/高雄这样的城市更像是成长股：便宜但更具波动性和周期性。台北在价格水平上领先；其他城市有时在增长率上领先。在接下来的几年中，许多人预计 “二线” 城市（台中、高雄）将经历波动——它们曾经繁荣，现在需要消化这一增长。台北可能会看到较小的波动，但这也意味着较小的收益。

A quick comparison snapshot:

快速比较快照：

Taipei City: ~NT$1.2M/ping avg, ~3% price dip in recent correction taiwannews.com.tw. Pros: highest demand, scarce supply, resilient values. Cons: severely unaffordable, low yield.
New Taipei City: ~NT$600-800k/ping in popular districts, smaller dip (2.3% in Q4) taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. Effectively an extension of Taipei market with slightly more affordable options. Some oversupply in new zones, but overall strong due to population inflow.
Taoyuan: ~NT$300-400k/ping, moderate dip (~4.8% in Q4) taiwannews.com.tw. Very active market thanks to industry and Airport MRT. Price growth had been high; now calming.
Taichung: ~NT$300k/ping (varies), dip ~3.2% in Q4 taiwannews.com.tw. Big market by volume. Watch for oversupply in certain districts; still, it’s central Taiwan’s economic hub, so demand exists.
Tainan: ~NT$200-300k/ping, dip ~7% in Q4 taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. Boosted by TSMC fab; had low base prices so still relatively affordable. Could see continued growth if tech industry thrives, but incomes are low there.
Kaohsiung: ~NT$250-350k/ping, dip ~10% in Q4 taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw. Was a hot story due to redevelopment and tech plans; now correcting. Long-term depends on success of economic transformation (from heavy industry to high-tech and services).

台北市： 平均约 NT$1.2M/坪，近期调整价格下跌约 3% taiwannews.com.tw。优点：需求最高，供应稀缺，价值韧性强。缺点：严重负担不起，收益低。
新北市： 在热门地区约 NT$600-800k/坪，轻微下跌（Q4 下降 2.3%）taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw。实际上是台北市场的延伸，提供稍微更实惠的选择。新区域存在一定的过剩，但由于人口流入，整体仍然强劲。
桃园： 约 NT$300-400k/坪，中等下跌（Q4 下降约 4.8%）taiwannews.com.tw。由于工业和机场捷运的推动，市场非常活跃。价格增长曾经很高，现在趋于平稳。
台中： 约 NT$300k/坪（有所不同），Q4 下跌约 3.2% taiwannews.com.tw。按交易量来看是个大市场。需关注某些地区的过剩；不过，台中仍是中部台湾的经济中心，因此需求依然存在。
台南： 约 NT$200-300k/坪，Q4 下跌约 7% taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw。受到台积电厂的推动；由于基价较低，因此仍然相对实惠。如果科技行业蓬勃发展，可能会继续增长，但那里的收入较低。
高雄： 约 NT$250-350k/坪，Q4 下跌约 10% taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw。由于重建和科技计划曾是热门话题；现在正在调整。长期依赖于经济转型的成功（从重工业转向高科技和服务业）。

In conclusion, Taipei remains the priciest and most “elite” market, whereas other cities provide affordability and sometimes faster short-term growth. However, the recent bust after the boom in places like Kaohsiung shows the risk of chasing rapid gains. Many Taiwanese investors actually diversify – owning a home in Taipei (for stability/status) and maybe a rental property in Taichung or Kaohsiung (for yield or potential growth). For a foreign or any investor comparing, the question is risk tolerance: Taipei is lower risk, lower return; other cities higher risk, potentially higher return. And as always, local knowledge is key – each city has its own micro-markets and it’s wise to study them individually.

总之，台北仍然是最昂贵和最 “精英” 的市场，而其他城市则提供了可负担性，有时短期增长更快。然而，高雄等地在繁荣后的近期崩盘显示了追逐快速收益的风险。许多台湾投资者实际上会进行多元化投资——在台北拥有一套房（以获得稳定性/地位），并可能在台中或高雄拥有一处出租物业（以获取收益或潜在增长）。对于外国或任何投资者来说，关键问题是风险承受能力：台北风险较低，回报较低；其他城市风险较高，潜在回报较高。而且，正如往常一样，地方知识是关键——每个城市都有自己的微观市场，明智的做法是单独研究它们。

Sources:

来源：

Taipei Times (Crystal Hsu), “Housing market to remain in a slump: Evertrust”, Jun. 25, 2025 – Evertrust Rehouse report on transaction declines and forecast of continued moderate price correction taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com.
Taipei Times (Crystal Hsu), “Property market cooling rapidly, Evertrust says”, May 20, 2025 – Data on widened price negotiation gaps by city and falling transactions in Q1 2025 taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com.
Taiwan News (TY), “Taiwan’s housing prices fell 6.6% in Q4”, Apr. 14, 2025 – MOI statistics on Q4 2024 price drops in six cities and analysis from Chinatrust Real Estate taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw.
Taiwan News (Liz Chung), “20,000 residents leave Taipei in Q1 over high housing prices”, Apr. 25, 2025 – Cites MOI data on Taipei’s average price per ping and population migration to cheaper cities (Taoyuan, etc.) taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw.
CBRE Taiwan, “2025 Taiwan Real Estate Market Outlook”, Apr. 2025 – Market outlook highlights (interest rates flat; office vacancy rising to 7-year high; cautious retail; lower investment volumes amid cooling housing) cbreemail.com cbreemail.com.
Taiwan Housing (blog), “2025 mortgage policy update: What foreign buyers need to know”, 2024 – Summary of Central Bank selective credit controls (LTV cuts, no grace period, nationwide scope) and their goals taiwanhousing.tw taiwanhousing.tw.
Taiwan News, “Taiwan’s new housing tax rates to benefit foreign residents”, Sep. 5, 2024 – House Tax Act revisions (House Hoarding Tax 2.0) details: 2~4.8% tax on non-owner homes, 1% on owner-occupied; inclusion of foreign ARC holders taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw.
Taipei Times, “New tax rates to benefit foreigners”, Sep. 5, 2024 – MOF announcement on allowing foreigners with ARC to get owner-occupier tax rate (1.2% -> 1%) taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com.
Taipei Times (Crystal Hsu), “Housing transactions soar 27 percent”, Jul. 31, 2024 – Sinyi Realty report on H1 2024 transactions and price jumps in cities (Hsinchu, Taoyuan, etc.), plus mention of credit tightening measures in mid-2024 taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com.
InvestAsian, “Taiwan Real Estate: Asia’s Most Overpriced?”, Feb. 20, 2025 – Critical view on Taiwan housing: notes Taipei prices ~$7,000/sqm, low rental yields ~2%, unaffordability (40 years’ income for a home), and waning Chinese investor support investasian.com investasian.com.
Vpon Big Data, “House Prices and Population Trends in Greater Taipei”, Nov. 2022 – District-wise price info: confirms Da’an as highest (~NT$1M/ping), outer districts lower, and New Taipei’s Yonghe/Banqiao approaching Taipei prices vpon.com vpon.com.
Taiwan News, “Taiwan housing starts saw five-year low in 2024”, Feb. 6, 2025 – MOI data on housing starts by city (overall down, New Taipei -62.9% YOY) and description of developers’ reaction to credit controls taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw.
Taiwan News, “Taiwan cracks down on speculative housing loans”, Feb. 2025 – (Referenced via blog) details on credit control measures and first-time buyer loan reviews taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com.
The above sources and data provide the factual backbone of this report, offering a comprehensive view of Taipei’s real estate market in 2025 and beyond.

台北时报（Crystal Hsu），“住房市场将持续低迷：永信”，2025年6月25日– 永信房屋报告关于交易下降和持续温和价格调整的预测 taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com。
台北时报（Crystal Hsu），“房地产市场迅速降温，永信表示”，2025年5月20日– 关于各城市价格谈判差距扩大和 2025 年第一季度交易下降的数据 taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com。
台湾新闻（TY），“台湾住房价格在 Q4 下降 6.6%”，2025年4月14日– 关于六个城市 2024 年 Q4 价格下跌的内政部统计数据和 Chinatrust 房地产分析 taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw。
台湾新闻（Liz Chung），“2025 年第一季度 2 万居民因高房价离开台北”，2025年4月25日– 引用内政部关于台北每坪平均价格和人口迁移到更便宜城市（桃园等）的数据 taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw。
CBRE 台湾，“2025 年台湾房地产市场展望”，2025 年 4 月 – 市场展望亮点（利率持平；办公楼空置率上升至 7 年高；零售谨慎；在住房降温中投资量下降）cbreemail.com cbreemail.com。
台湾住房（博客），“2025 年抵押贷款政策更新：外国买家需要知道的事项”，2024 年 – 中央银行选择性信贷控制（LTV 削减，无宽限期，全国范围）及其目标的总结 taiwanhousing.tw taiwanhousing.tw。
台湾新闻，“台湾新的住房税率将惠及外国居民”，2024年9月5日– 房屋税法修订（房屋囤积税 2.0）细节：非自住住房 2~4.8% 税率，自住住房 1%；包括外国 ARC 持有者 taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw。
台北时报，“新税率将惠及外国人”，2024年9月5日– 财政部公告允许持有 ARC 的外国人获得自住税率（1.2% -> 1%）taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com。
台北时报（Crystal Hsu），“住房交易激增 27%”，2024年7月31日– Sinyi Realty 关于 2024 年上半年交易和城市价格上涨的报告（新竹、桃园等），并提到 2024 年中期信贷收紧措施 taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com。
InvestAsian，“台湾房地产：亚洲最被高估的市场？”，2025年2月20日– 对台湾住房的批评观点：指出台北价格约为$7,000/平方米，租金收益率低约 2%，负担能力差（购房需 40 年收入），以及中国投资者支持减弱 investasian.com investasian.com。
Vpon 大数据，“大台北地区房价与人口趋势”，2022 年 11 月 – 按区价格信息：确认大安为最高（约 NT$1M/坪），外区较低，新北市的永和/板桥接近台北价格 vpon.com vpon.com。
台湾新闻，“台湾住房开工量在 2024 年创五年新低”，2025年2月6日– 关于各城市住房开工量的内政部数据（整体下降，新北市同比下降 62.9%）及开发商对信贷控制反应的描述 taiwannews.com.tw taiwannews.com.tw。
台湾新闻，“台湾打击投机性住房贷款”，2025 年 2 月 –（通过博客引用）关于信贷控制措施和首次购房者贷款审查的详细信息 taipeitimes.com taipeitimes.com。
以上来源和数据为本报告提供了事实基础，全面展示了 2025 年及以后台北房地产市场的情况。

台北房地产市场 2025 年展望：趋势、预测及关键洞察