<p><strong>微软</strong>(MSFT -0.01%) 的股价超过 500 美元，年初至今上涨 19.1% -- 远远超过 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数的 6.8% 增幅。</p>
<p>尽管 <strong>英伟达</strong> 是首家市值达到 4 万亿美元的公司，但微软紧随其后 -- 市值超过 3.7 万亿美元。</p>
<p>以下是微软与其他投资机会的区别，它需要做些什么才能证明 600 美元的股价合理，以及投资者在全力投入这只成长股之前需要关注的一些问题。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ3MDgvYS1wZXJzb24tcG9pbnRpbmctb24tdGhlLWxpbmUtb2YtYW4tdXB3YXJkLXNsb3BpbmctY2hhcnQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="465" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ3MDgvYS1wZXJzb24tcG9pbnRpbmctb24tdGhlLWxpbmUtb2YtYW4tdXB3YXJkLXNsb3BpbmctY2hhcnQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>长期增长的秘诀</h2>
<p>微软因其多元化的商业模式，继续被认为是市场上最平衡的科技公司。</p>
<p>它在企业软件领域是行业领导者，通过 Microsoft 365、其商业应用程序、Windows 操作系统、开发工具如 GitHub、游戏软件等。它也是云计算巨头，通过 Microsoft Azure 平台及其相关产品和服务。它还生产技术硬件，如 Surface 设备、Xbox 游戏机及配件等。</p>
<p>微软正在将人工智能（AI）整合到其各个业务部门，既面向消费者（通过 Copilot AI 助手），也面向企业（通过 Azure OpenAI 和 Azure AI 服务等工具）。</p>
<p>微软为投资者提供了在一个公司旗下接触多个不同终端市场的机会，拥有卓越的资产负债表、高利润率和稳定的现金流。</p>
<h2>在充满不确定性的行业中获胜</h2>
<p>微软表现如此出色并徘徊在历史高点的原因可能是它在云基础设施和应用软件领域的蓬勃发展，尤其是在人工智能时代。</p>
<p>这并非易事，因为云计算领导者 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 和第三名 <strong>谷歌母公司</strong> <strong>Alphabet</strong> 仍在积极投资其云计算业务 -- 挑战第二名微软的市场份额保持和增长。像 <strong>甲骨文</strong> 和 <strong>国际商业机器公司</strong> 这样的较小参与者也在成功扩展其云产品。</p>
<p>投资者最初对企业软件通过新工具和代理利用人工智能的潜力感到兴奋，这些工具可以帮助用户节省时间，完成任务。然而，许多软件股票在这种乐观情绪减弱后大幅回落。</p>
<p>例如，<strong>Salesforce</strong> 今年迄今下跌 21%，在去年 12 月创下历史新高后。<strong>Adobe</strong> 今年下跌超过 16%，比峰值下跌惊人的 46%。</p>
<p>在代理人工智能时代，哪些公司能够蓬勃发展仍然存在许多不确定性 -- 这些工具可以在被请求后独立完成多种任务，而不仅仅是响应提示。许多软件即服务（SaaS）公司依赖于向用户和组织销售订阅和座位许可证。但如果 AI 代理能够承担一些这些任务，这可能会直接影响像 Salesforce 或 Adobe 这样的公司的盈利能力。多年来，这些大型企业软件公司的护城河首次看起来是可以被攻破的。如果一个代理能够完成原本需要员工或个人拥有多个 SaaS 订阅的工作，这将尤其重要。</p>
<p>微软并未免受代理人工智能威胁，但相较于其他软件公司，它处于有利位置，因为许多 Microsoft 365 应用程序的日常使用和简单性，以及 Windows 操作系统与 Copilot 等 AI 工具在应用程序中的交叉使用。同样，Azure AI 也集成在 Azure 生态系统中。对于 GitHub，微软推出了 &#34;代理 DevOps&#34;，允许 AI 代理与用户协作，更快地开发软件。</p>
<p>总之，微软的商业模式和现有解决方案正在不断演变，而不是停滞不前。它的适应能力，加上其他部门的强大，是微软表现良好的原因，而许多其他企业软件公司则面临压力。</p>
<h2>微软的估值溢价</h2>
<p>微软的股东不应因为股票表现火热而感到自满。公司需要证明用户愿意持续为其 AI 工具付费，并且能够维持其高利润率和良好的增长率。</p>
<p>最近，微软的股价增长超过了其盈利增长，因为投资者愿意为今天的股票支付更高的价格，因为他们对其增长潜力持乐观态度。因此，微软的估值指标相对于其历史平均水平相对较高。实际上，其未来市盈率（P/E）几乎与其 10 年中位数市盈率相同。这意味着投资者实际上愿意为微软股票支付一年的溢价 -- 相信公司能够随着时间的推移实现其估值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d9ad8805b704cdcfddb7db04326422e1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="538" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d9ad8805b704cdcfddb7db04326422e1.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>还需注意微软的自由现金流（FCF）与价格比率较高。</p>
<p>微软是一头现金奶牛，但它在研发上的支出如此之高，以至于其资本支出激增 -- 削弱了自由现金流。如果微软的 AI 投资加速其盈利增长，这一策略可能会带来回报。但就目前而言，股票确实偏贵，投资者在购买之前应对此有所了解。</p>
<h2>投资微软股票的最佳方式</h2>
<p>在股市中，短期内任何事情都有可能发生。因此，微软的股价可能仅凭热情就能达到 600 美元。</p>
<p>但要让微软的股价达到每股 600 美元，并保持在这个水平之上并继续增长，公司必须将其资本支出转化为盈利增长。更具体地说，它必须保持或扩大在云基础设施中的市场份额，继续开发有用的人工智能工具，并引领自主智能的发展。否则，投资者可能会开始质疑其高额资本支出是否值得，甚至是否有些浪费。</p>
<p>值得一提的是，微软并不是将所有的资金都投入到人工智能上并寄希望于一场繁荣。该公司已将相当大一部分资本用于股票回购和分红，同时保持着一个现金、现金等价物和短期投资远超长期债务的资产负债表。换句话说，微软并没有将所有的希望都寄托在其人工智能投资上——但它确实执行了一项比过去几年更为激进的资本配置策略。</p>
<p>总体而言，微软仍然是一只稳健的基础成长股，投资者可以围绕其构建投资组合。很容易看着微软在后视镜中的上涨，认为该股票被高估了。或者认为，直到公司能够弥合预期与结果之间的差距之前，这只股票都不值得购买。但仅仅因为其估值偏高而出售一家优秀公司的股份通常是个坏主意。</p>
<p>相反，更好的方法是让你的赢家继续增长，并允许它们随着时间的推移逐渐实现其估值。我认为这是一种目前投资微软的好方法。该股票并不便宜，但考虑到公司各方面都在全力运转，或许也不应当便宜。因此，尽管微软的股价确实快速上涨，但对于耐心的长期投资者来说，其股票仍然值得购买。</p>

微软

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

MSFO

微软每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

微软每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

MSFX

MSFY

<p>微软的股票目前超过 500 美元，今年迄今上涨了 19.1%，显著超过标准普尔 500 指数。微软的市值超过 3.7 万亿美元，是企业软件和云计算的领导者，在其服务中整合了人工智能。尽管面临来自亚马逊和字母表等公司的竞争，微软凭借其多元化的商业模式蓬勃发展。然而，其股票估值较高，投资者对在新兴人工智能技术面前维持增长和盈利能力持谨慎态度</p>

<p><strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -0.01%) is over $500 a share and up 19.1% year to date at the time of this writing -- handily outperforming the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s 6.8% gain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>微软</strong>(MSFT -0.01%) 的股价超过 500 美元，年初至今上涨 19.1% -- 远远超过 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数的 6.8% 增幅。</p>
</div><p>Although <strong>Nvidia</strong> is capturing the spotlight as the first company to reach a $4 trillion market cap, Microsoft is right behind -- sporting a market cap of over $3.7 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 <strong>英伟达</strong> 是首家市值达到 4 万亿美元的公司，但微软紧随其后 -- 市值超过 3.7 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Here's what differentiates Microsoft from other investment opportunities, what it would have to do to justify a $600 share price, and some concerns that investors will want to monitor before diving headfirst into this growth stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是微软与其他投资机会的区别，它需要做些什么才能证明 600 美元的股价合理，以及投资者在全力投入这只成长股之前需要关注的一些问题。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ3MDgvYS1wZXJzb24tcG9pbnRpbmctb24tdGhlLWxpbmUtb2YtYW4tdXB3YXJkLXNsb3BpbmctY2hhcnQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824708%2Fa-person-pointing-on-the-line-of-an-upward-sloping-chart.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A recipe for long-term growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>长期增长的秘诀</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft continues to be arguably the most balanced tech company on the market due to its diversified business model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软因其多元化的商业模式，继续被认为是市场上最平衡的科技公司。</p>
</div><p>It's an industry leader in enterprise software through Microsoft 365, its business applications, the Windows operating system, developer tools like GitHub, gaming software, and more. It is also a cloud computing giant through the Microsoft Azure platform and its associated products and services. It also makes tech hardware like Surface devices, Xbox gaming consoles and accessories, and more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它在企业软件领域是行业领导者，通过 Microsoft 365、其商业应用程序、Windows 操作系统、开发工具如 GitHub、游戏软件等。它也是云计算巨头，通过 Microsoft Azure 平台及其相关产品和服务。它还生产技术硬件，如 Surface 设备、Xbox 游戏机及配件等。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft is integrating artificial intelligence (AI) across its business segments for both consumers (through Copilot AI assistants) and for enterprises (through tools like Azure OpenAI and Azure AI services).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软正在将人工智能（AI）整合到其各个业务部门，既面向消费者（通过 Copilot AI 助手），也面向企业（通过 Azure OpenAI 和 Azure AI 服务等工具）。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft offers investors exposure to many different end markets under the umbrella of one company with an exceptional balance sheet, high margins, and stable cash flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软为投资者提供了在一个公司旗下接触多个不同终端市场的机会，拥有卓越的资产负债表、高利润率和稳定的现金流。</p>
</div><h2>A winner in an industry riddled with uncertainty</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在充满不确定性的行业中获胜</h2>
</div><p>Possibly the simplest reason why Microsoft is doing so well and hovering around an all-time high is that its thriving in both the cloud infrastructure and application software niches in the age of AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软表现如此出色并徘徊在历史高点的原因可能是它在云基础设施和应用软件领域的蓬勃发展，尤其是在人工智能时代。</p>
</div><p>This has been no easy task, as both cloud leader <strong>Amazon</strong> and third-place player <strong>Alphabet</strong> continue to aggressively invest in their cloud computing businesses -- challenging second-place Microsoft's efforts to hold and gain market share. Smaller players like <strong>Oracle</strong> and <strong>International Business Machines</strong> are also successfully building out their cloud offerings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并非易事，因为云计算领导者 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 和第三名 <strong>谷歌母公司</strong> <strong>Alphabet</strong> 仍在积极投资其云计算业务 -- 挑战第二名微软的市场份额保持和增长。像 <strong>甲骨文</strong> 和 <strong>国际商业机器公司</strong> 这样的较小参与者也在成功扩展其云产品。</p>
</div><p>Investors were initially excited about the potential for enterprise software to capitalize on AI through new tools and agents that would save users time by helping them create and accomplish tasks. However, many software stocks have pulled back considerably as that optimism has moderated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者最初对企业软件通过新工具和代理利用人工智能的潜力感到兴奋，这些工具可以帮助用户节省时间，完成任务。然而，许多软件股票在这种乐观情绪减弱后大幅回落。</p>
</div><p><strong>Salesforce</strong>, for example, is down 21% year to date after hitting an all-time high in December. <strong>Adobe</strong> is down more than 16% this year and a staggering 46% from its peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，<strong>Salesforce</strong> 今年迄今下跌 21%，在去年 12 月创下历史新高后。<strong>Adobe</strong> 今年下跌超过 16%，比峰值下跌惊人的 46%。</p>
</div><p>There are a lot of question marks as to which companies will thrive in the age of agentic AI -- tools that can do a variety of tasks independently once asked, rather than simply responding to prompts. Many software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies rely on selling subscriptions and seat licenses to users and organizations. But if AI agents can take on some of those tasks, that could directly impact the profitability of a company like Salesforce or Adobe. For the first time in years, the moats of some of these large enterprise software companies look penetrable. That could be especially significant if an agent can do the work that would have required an employee or individual to have several different SaaS subscriptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在代理人工智能时代，哪些公司能够蓬勃发展仍然存在许多不确定性 -- 这些工具可以在被请求后独立完成多种任务，而不仅仅是响应提示。许多软件即服务（SaaS）公司依赖于向用户和组织销售订阅和座位许可证。但如果 AI 代理能够承担一些这些任务，这可能会直接影响像 Salesforce 或 Adobe 这样的公司的盈利能力。多年来，这些大型企业软件公司的护城河首次看起来是可以被攻破的。如果一个代理能够完成原本需要员工或个人拥有多个 SaaS 订阅的工作，这将尤其重要。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft isn't immune to the threat of agentic AI, but it is in an advantageous position relative to other software companies because of the everyday use and simplicity of many of the Microsoft 365 apps and the crossover between the Windows operating system and AI tools like Copilot across applications. Similarly, Azure AI is integrated into the Azure ecosystem. For GitHub, Microsoft has introduced &#34;agentic DevOps,&#34; which allows AI agents to collaborate with users to develop software faster.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软并未免受代理人工智能威胁，但相较于其他软件公司，它处于有利位置，因为许多 Microsoft 365 应用程序的日常使用和简单性，以及 Windows 操作系统与 Copilot 等 AI 工具在应用程序中的交叉使用。同样，Azure AI 也集成在 Azure 生态系统中。对于 GitHub，微软推出了 &#34;代理 DevOps&#34;，允许 AI 代理与用户协作，更快地开发软件。</p>
</div><p>In sum, Microsoft's business model and existing solutions are evolving, not remaining stagnant. Its ability to adapt, paired with the strength of its other segments, is why Microsoft is doing well while many other enterprise software companies are under pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总之，微软的商业模式和现有解决方案正在不断演变，而不是停滞不前。它的适应能力，加上其他部门的强大，是微软表现良好的原因，而许多其他企业软件公司则面临压力。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft commands a premium valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微软的估值溢价</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft shareholders shouldn't get complacent just because the stock has been red-hot. The company will need to demonstrate that users are consistently willing to pay for its AI tools and that it can sustain its high margins and decent growth rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软的股东不应因为股票表现火热而感到自满。公司需要证明用户愿意持续为其 AI 工具付费，并且能够维持其高利润率和良好的增长率。</p>
</div><p>Lately, Microsoft's stock price growth has been outpacing its earnings growth as investors are willing to pay a higher price for the stock today because they are optimistic about its growth potential. As a result, Microsoft's valuation metrics are relatively high compared to their historical averages. In fact, its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is nearly identical to its 10-year median P/E. Meaning investors are essentially willing to pay a year's worth of premium for Microsoft stock today -- trusting that the company can grow into its valuation over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，微软的股价增长超过了其盈利增长，因为投资者愿意为今天的股票支付更高的价格，因为他们对其增长潜力持乐观态度。因此，微软的估值指标相对于其历史平均水平相对较高。实际上，其未来市盈率（P/E）几乎与其 10 年中位数市盈率相同。这意味着投资者实际上愿意为微软股票支付一年的溢价 -- 相信公司能够随着时间的推移实现其估值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d9ad8805b704cdcfddb7db04326422e1.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d9ad8805b704cdcfddb7db04326422e1.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSFT 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Also note Microsoft's elevated price to free cash flow (FCF).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还需注意微软的自由现金流（FCF）与价格比率较高。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft is a cash cow, but it is spending so much on research and development that its capital expenditures are spiking -- cutting into FCF. That strategy could pay off if Microsoft's AI investments accelerate its earnings growth. But for now, the stock is definitely on the expensive side, which is something investors should be aware of before buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软是一头现金奶牛，但它在研发上的支出如此之高，以至于其资本支出激增 -- 削弱了自由现金流。如果微软的 AI 投资加速其盈利增长，这一策略可能会带来回报。但就目前而言，股票确实偏贵，投资者在购买之前应对此有所了解。</p>
</div><h2>The best way to approach Microsoft stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资微软股票的最佳方式</h2>
</div><p>In the stock market, anything can happen in the short term. So Microsoft could get to $600 a share on euphoria alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在股市中，短期内任何事情都有可能发生。因此，微软的股价可能仅凭热情就能达到 600 美元。</p>
</div><p>But for Microsoft to reach $600 a share, stay above that level, and continue growing, the company must convert its capex into earnings growth. Or more specifically, it must hold or grow its market share in cloud infrastructure, continue developing useful AI tools, and spearhead agentic AI. Otherwise, investors may start to question whether its high capex is worthwhile or borderline wasteful.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但要让微软的股价达到每股 600 美元，并保持在这个水平之上并继续增长，公司必须将其资本支出转化为盈利增长。更具体地说，它必须保持或扩大在云基础设施中的市场份额，继续开发有用的人工智能工具，并引领自主智能的发展。否则，投资者可能会开始质疑其高额资本支出是否值得，甚至是否有些浪费。</p>
</div><p>It's also worth mentioning that Microsoft isn't just throwing all of its dry powder on AI and hoping for a boom. The company has allocated a considerable amount of capital toward stock buybacks and dividends while maintaining a balance sheet with far more cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments than long-term debt. In other words, Microsoft isn't betting the farm on its AI investments -- but it is executing a more aggressive capital allocation strategy than it has in years past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得一提的是，微软并不是将所有的资金都投入到人工智能上并寄希望于一场繁荣。该公司已将相当大一部分资本用于股票回购和分红，同时保持着一个现金、现金等价物和短期投资远超长期债务的资产负债表。换句话说，微软并没有将所有的希望都寄托在其人工智能投资上——但它确实执行了一项比过去几年更为激进的资本配置策略。</p>
</div><p>Overall, Microsoft remains a solid, foundational growth stock that investors can build a portfolio around. It would be easy to look at the run-up Microsoft has in its rear-view mirror and say the stock is overvalued. Or to say that the stock won't be worth buying until the company can bridge the gap between expectations and results. But selling shares of an excellent business just because its valuation is on the pricey side is usually a bad idea.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，微软仍然是一只稳健的基础成长股，投资者可以围绕其构建投资组合。很容易看着微软在后视镜中的上涨，认为该股票被高估了。或者认为，直到公司能够弥合预期与结果之间的差距之前，这只股票都不值得购买。但仅仅因为其估值偏高而出售一家优秀公司的股份通常是个坏主意。</p>
</div><p>Rather, a better approach is to let your winners run and allow them to grow into their valuations over time. I think that's a good approach to investing in Microsoft right now. The stock isn't cheap, but it arguably doesn't deserve to be, given that the company is firing on all cylinders. So, while Microsoft has certainly run up far and fast, its shares could still be worth buying for patient long-term investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，更好的方法是让你的赢家继续增长，并允许它们随着时间的推移逐渐实现其估值。我认为这是一种目前投资微软的好方法。该股票并不便宜，但考虑到公司各方面都在全力运转，或许也不应当便宜。因此，尽管微软的股价确实快速上涨，但对于耐心的长期投资者来说，其股票仍然值得购买。</p>
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Microsoft: Next Stop $600 or Has the Growth Stock Run Up Too Far, Too Fast?

- 微软股价超过 500 美元，年初至今上涨 19.1%，超越标普 500 的 6.8% 增长。  
- 微软在云计算和企业软件领域表现强劲，市场价值超过 3.7 万亿美元。  
- 投资者需关注其高估值及能否持续增长，尤其是在 AI 领域的表现。  

微软：下一站是 600 美元，还是成长股涨得过快过远了？