<p>尽管投资者经历了一段颠簸的旅程，但无人能否认 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 1.14%）已经成为一只极为成功的股票。在过去的 10 年中，股价飙升了 1700%（截至 7 月 10 日）。公司的收入增长确实放缓，但特斯拉现在持续盈利，这是一个积极的发展。</p>
<p>尽管目前业务可能并未全面开花，市场仍然继续给予特斯拉信任。股价距离去年 12 月的峰值下跌了 35%，但以 170.4 的市盈率来看，仍然非常昂贵。似乎无论基本面如何变化，特斯拉总是处于高估值状态。</p>
<p>现有股东以及希望购买这只电动车（EV）股票的投资者需要了解当前的情况。以下是我们展望特斯拉未来时最重要的事项。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ2NjcvdHdvLXRlc2xhcy1wYXJrZWQtbmVhci1lYWNoLW90aGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="420" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ2NjcvdHdvLXRlc2xhcy1wYXJrZWQtbmVhci1lYWNoLW90aGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>寄望于不同的未来</h2>
<p>任何时候，当估值像特斯拉这样高时，清楚表明市场相信未来将会非常光明。这正是创始人兼首席执行官埃隆·马斯克让股东们相信的。在这种情况下，主要关注的焦点是其完全自动驾驶（FSD）技术，这也是特斯拉最终成功和当前估值的依赖所在。</p>
<p>经过多次延迟，特斯拉终于在 6 月在德克萨斯州奥斯丁推出了一项机器人出租车服务。这是一次非常有限且受控的发布，仅面向小范围内的特定人群。虽然这些车辆中有监督人员，但仍然出现了驾驶错误。然而，尽管在 FSD 和机器人出租车竞赛中显著落后于 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Waymo，公司仍然值得赞扬，能够走到这一步。</p>
<p>将机器人出租车服务带到全球城市的财务回报是巨大的。因此，马斯克和特斯拉如此专注于这一首要目标是有道理的。根据凯西·伍德和方舟投资的说法，这是一个数万亿美元的机会。</p>
<p>要使特斯拉的战略成功，不仅需要销售更多的电动车，还需要这些人将他们的汽车提供给机器人出租车服务。通过这种方式，特斯拉将能够迅速扩大其车队，如果能够削弱 <strong>Uber</strong> 和 <strong>Lyft</strong> 在美国的市场领先地位，可能会获得非常高的利润收入。如果 FSD 能够降低出行成本，那么需求可能会显著增长，从而为这一方程式提供上行空间。</p>
<h2>如果特斯拉保持不变呢？</h2>
<p>投资者需要意识到，特斯拉实现广泛的机器人出租车采用远非确定。到目前为止，马斯克过度承诺而未能兑现。显然，存在重大的监管障碍，安全性是主要关注点。而乘客必须适应坐在没有人驾驶的汽车中（或者根本没有方向盘）。</p>
<p>这些都是目前无人能解答的大问题。时间会证明事情的发展。这意味着，今天愿意购买该股票的投资者暗示特斯拉将在其 FSD 能力上取得巨大成功，以至于公司的盈利能力在五年或十年后将大幅提高。</p>
<p>这是我乐意放弃的赌注。特斯拉的商业模式不变的可能性依然存在。在未来，这家公司仍可能在销售电动车。在这种情况下，特斯拉的多头将不会满意，特斯拉将应得一个更低的市盈率倍数。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉的股票在过去十年中飙升了 1700%，但其当前的市盈率为 170.4，尽管收入增长放缓，但仍显示出高估值。公司的未来取决于其完全自动驾驶（FSD）技术，最近在奥斯丁有限推出了一项机器人出租车服务。尽管这带来了潜在的数万亿美元机会，但仍面临重大监管和安全挑战。投资者必须考虑 FSD 采用的相关不确定性，以及特斯拉可能继续主要作为电动车销售商的可能性，这可能导致估值降低</p>

<p>While it has taken investors on a bumpy drive, no one can deny that <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 1.14%) has worked out to be a wildly successful stock. In the past 10 years, shares have rocketed 1,700% higher (as of July 10). The company's revenue growth has slowed, to be sure, but Tesla is now consistently profitable, which is a positive development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管投资者经历了一段颠簸的旅程，但无人能否认 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 1.14%）已经成为一只极为成功的股票。在过去的 10 年中，股价飙升了 1700%（截至 7 月 10 日）。公司的收入增长确实放缓，但特斯拉现在持续盈利，这是一个积极的发展。</p>
</div><p>Even though the business might not be firing on all cylinders right now, the market continues to give Tesla the benefit of the doubt. Shares trade 35% off their peak from December last year, but they're very expensive, at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 170.4. It seems that Tesla is always at a nosebleed valuation regardless of what's going on with the underlying fundamentals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管目前业务可能并未全面开花，市场仍然继续给予特斯拉信任。股价距离去年 12 月的峰值下跌了 35%，但以 170.4 的市盈率来看，仍然非常昂贵。似乎无论基本面如何变化，特斯拉总是处于高估值状态。</p>
</div><p>Existing shareholders, as well as those investors looking to buy the electric vehicle (EV) stock, need to understand what's going on. Here's what matters most as we look at Tesla's future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现有股东以及希望购买这只电动车（EV）股票的投资者需要了解当前的情况。以下是我们展望特斯拉未来时最重要的事项。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ2NjcvdHdvLXRlc2xhcy1wYXJrZWQtbmVhci1lYWNoLW90aGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824667%2Ftwo-teslas-parked-near-each-other.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>Betting on a different future</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>寄望于不同的未来</h2>
</div><p>Anytime there's a valuation as high as Tesla's, it's a clear indication that the market believes the future will be incredibly bright. And that's exactly what founder and CEO Elon Musk has gotten shareholders to believe. In this case, the main thing to focus on is its full self-driving (FSD) technology, which is what Tesla's ultimate success and current valuation depend on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>任何时候，当估值像特斯拉这样高时，清楚表明市场相信未来将会非常光明。这正是创始人兼首席执行官埃隆·马斯克让股东们相信的。在这种情况下，主要关注的焦点是其完全自动驾驶（FSD）技术，这也是特斯拉最终成功和当前估值的依赖所在。</p>
</div><p>After many delays, Tesla finally introduced a robotaxi service in Austin, Texas in June. It was a very limited and controlled launch to a select number of people in a small area. The cars, which had supervisors in them, did make driving errors. However, the company deserves credit for getting to this point, even though it's significantly behind <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Waymo in the FSD and robotaxi race.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经过多次延迟，特斯拉终于在 6 月在德克萨斯州奥斯丁推出了一项机器人出租车服务。这是一次非常有限且受控的发布，仅面向小范围内的特定人群。虽然这些车辆中有监督人员，但仍然出现了驾驶错误。然而，尽管在 FSD 和机器人出租车竞赛中显著落后于 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Waymo，公司仍然值得赞扬，能够走到这一步。</p>
</div><p>The financial reward of one day bringing a robotaxi service to cities across the world is massive. So, it makes sense why Musk and Tesla are so focused on this top objective. According to Cathie Wood and Ark Invest, this is a multitrillion-dollar opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将机器人出租车服务带到全球城市的财务回报是巨大的。因此，马斯克和特斯拉如此专注于这一首要目标是有道理的。根据凯西·伍德和方舟投资的说法，这是一个数万亿美元的机会。</p>
</div><p>To make Tesla's strategy a success, it involves not only selling more of its EVs but having these people offer up their cars to the robotaxi service. In this way, Tesla would be able to rapidly scale up its fleet, earning what could be very high-margin revenue if it can chip away at the leading market positions of <strong>Uber</strong> and <strong>Lyft</strong>, at least in the U.S. And if FSD can bring down the cost of travel, then perhaps demand would grow meaningfully, providing upside to the equation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要使特斯拉的战略成功，不仅需要销售更多的电动车，还需要这些人将他们的汽车提供给机器人出租车服务。通过这种方式，特斯拉将能够迅速扩大其车队，如果能够削弱 <strong>Uber</strong> 和 <strong>Lyft</strong> 在美国的市场领先地位，可能会获得非常高的利润收入。如果 FSD 能够降低出行成本，那么需求可能会显著增长，从而为这一方程式提供上行空间。</p>
</div><h2>What if Tesla stays the same?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如果特斯拉保持不变呢？</h2>
</div><p>Investors need to realize that it's far from a certainty that Tesla achieves broad robotaxi adoption. Up until this point, Musk has overpromised and underdelivered. There are obviously major regulatory hurdles to overcome, with safety being the leading concern. And riders must get comfortable sitting in a car that has no one behind the wheel (or no wheel at all).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者需要意识到，特斯拉实现广泛的机器人出租车采用远非确定。到目前为止，马斯克过度承诺而未能兑现。显然，存在重大的监管障碍，安全性是主要关注点。而乘客必须适应坐在没有人驾驶的汽车中（或者根本没有方向盘）。</p>
</div><p>These are big question marks that no one has answers for at this point. Time will tell how things play out. This means that investors who are comfortable buying the stock today are implying that Tesla will find monster success with its FSD capabilities, enough so that the company's earnings power will be substantially higher five or 10 years from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些都是目前无人能解答的大问题。时间会证明事情的发展。这意味着，今天愿意购买该股票的投资者暗示特斯拉将在其 FSD 能力上取得巨大成功，以至于公司的盈利能力在五年或十年后将大幅提高。</p>
</div><p>That's a bet I'll gladly skip out on. There remains a good possibility that Tesla's business model doesn't change. And in the future, this company could still be selling EVs. In that scenario, something the Tesla bulls would not be pleased with, Tesla would be deserving of a much lower P/E multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是我乐意放弃的赌注。特斯拉的商业模式不变的可能性依然存在。在未来，这家公司仍可能在销售电动车。在这种情况下，特斯拉的多头将不会满意，特斯拉将应得一个更低的市盈率倍数。</p>
</div>

1 Thing That Matters Most for Tesla Stock Investors

- 特斯拉股票在过去 10 年上涨了 1,700%，现已实现持续盈利。  
- 尽管面临高估值和市场质疑，特斯拉仍专注于全自动驾驶技术。  
- 投资者需警惕特斯拉未来的机器人出租车服务能否成功。  

特斯拉股票投资者最关注的关键因素