<p>消费者价格指数预计在六月上涨 0.3%</p><p>核心 CPI 预计上涨 0.3%；同比上涨 3.0%</p><p>六月可能标志着关税引发的价格上涨的开始</p><p>作者：Lucia Mutikani</p><p>华盛顿，7 月 15 日（路透社）- 美国消费者价格在六月可能有所上升，这可能标志着长期预期的关税引发的通货膨胀增加的开始，这使得美联储在恢复降息方面保持谨慎。</p><p>劳工部周二发布的消费者价格指数报告预计将显示上个月汽油价格反弹以及一些受关税影响商品的成本上升。二月至五月的通胀数据表现疲软，导致特朗普总统要求美国中央银行降低借贷成本。</p><p>但随着沃尔玛等零售商警告价格上涨，大多数经济学家预计价格压力将在今夏开始积聚，并持续到年底。他们表示，由于企业仍在销售关税生效前积累的库存，通胀对特朗普的广泛进口关税反应缓慢。商业调查显示，今夏通胀将上升。特朗普上周宣布，针对包括墨西哥、日本、加拿大和巴西在内的多个国家的进口关税将于 8 月 1 日生效，此外还包括欧盟。</p><p>“六月的 CPI 报告可能会显示通胀开始再次增强，尽管在此时并不足以让美联储官员感到担忧，” 富国银行高级经济学家 Sarah House 表示。“虽然库存前置减轻了提高商品价格的必要性，但随着关税前的库存减少，企业吸收更高进口关税的难度将越来越大。”</p><p>根据路透社对经济学家的调查，CPI 上个月可能上涨 0.3%，而五月份仅上涨 0.1%。这将是自一月份以来的最大增幅，汽油价格在连续四个月下降后可能反弹。经济学家预计食品价格将温和上涨，得益于禽流感疫情减缓导致鸡蛋成本的适度下降。</p><p>在截至六月的 12 个月中，CPI 预计将上涨 2.7%，而五月份上涨 2.4%。</p><h3>核心通胀回暖</h3><p>剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分后，CPI 预计上涨 0.3%，而五月份仅上涨 0.1%。这一数据也将是自一月份以来所谓核心 CPI 的最大增幅，预计主要来自一些受关税影响的商品，包括家具和娱乐产品。</p><p>“有轶事报告表明，关税相关的价格上涨在六月开始频繁出现，但我预计大部分影响将在七月和八月显现，” 桑坦德美国资本市场首席经济学家 Stephen Stanley 表示。</p><p>然而，商品价格的稳固上涨可能会被服务成本的适度上涨所抵消。疲软的需求限制了机票以及酒店和汽车旅馆等服务相关类别的价格上涨。</p><p>在截至六月的 12 个月中，核心 CPI 通胀预计上涨 3.0%，而此前连续三个月上涨 2.8%。美联储追踪不同的通胀指标以实现其 2% 的目标。预计中央银行将在本月晚些时候的政策会议结束时将基准隔夜利率维持在 4.25%-4.50% 区间。上周发布的美联储 6 月 17-18 日会议纪要显示，只有 “几位” 官员表示他们认为利率可能在 7 月 29-30 日的会议上下降。</p><p>“即使服务价格放缓并不足以使整体核心 CPI 保持低迷，只有适度的服务通胀也应是一个令人鼓舞的迹象，表明更高的商品价格并未导致广泛的通胀压力，” 花旗集团经济学家 Veronica Clark 表示。“这应该使美联储官员在九月份降低利率时感到舒适，即使在接下来的几个月中出现一些更强的通胀数据。”</p><p>高盛预测未来几个月核心 CPI 通胀将月增 0.3% 至 0.4%，反映出消费电子、汽车和服装价格因关税而上涨。该投资银行预计对核心服务通胀的短期影响有限。</p>

<p>美国的通货膨胀预计将在 6 月份上升，消费者物价指数（CPI）预计将增加 0.3%。这标志着可能出现因关税引发的价格上涨，特别是在汽油和对关税敏感的商品方面。经济学家预测，CPI 同比增长 2.7%，核心 CPI 增长 3.0%。尽管这些增长存在，但由于整体通胀压力仍然温和，美联储可能会维持利率不变。分析师预计，由于对进口商品的关税，未来几个月价格将继续上涨，但对核心服务通胀的影响有限</p>

<p>Consumer price index expected to increase 0.3% in June</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消费者价格指数预计在六月上涨 0.3%</p>
</div><p>Core CPI forecast to be up 0.3%; rise 3.0% on year-over-year basis</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>核心 CPI 预计上涨 0.3%；同比上涨 3.0%</p>
</div><p>June could mark the start of tariff-induced price rises</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>六月可能标志着关税引发的价格上涨的开始</p>
</div><p>By Lucia Mutikani</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Lucia Mutikani</p>
</div><p>WASHINGTON, July 15 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices likely picked up in June, potentially marking the start of a long-anticipated, tariff-induced increase in inflation that has left the Federal Reserve cautious about resuming its interest rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华盛顿，7 月 15 日（路透社）- 美国消费者价格在六月可能有所上升，这可能标志着长期预期的关税引发的通货膨胀增加的开始，这使得美联储在恢复降息方面保持谨慎。</p>
</div><p>The Consumer Price Index report from the Labor Department on Tuesday is expected to show a rebound in gasoline prices and higher costs for some tariff-sensitive goods last month. Inflation readings from February through May were on the soft side, leading to demands by President Donald Trump for the U.S. central bank to lower borrowing costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>劳工部周二发布的消费者价格指数报告预计将显示上个月汽油价格反弹以及一些受关税影响商品的成本上升。二月至五月的通胀数据表现疲软，导致特朗普总统要求美国中央银行降低借贷成本。</p>
</div><p>But with retailers like Walmart (WMT.N) warning of price increases, most economists expect price pressures to begin building up beginning this summer and stretching through the end of the year. They said inflation has been slow to respond to Trump’s sweeping import duties because businesses were still selling stock accumulated before the tariffs came into effect. Business surveys have pointed to inflation rising this summer. Trump last week announced higher tariffs would come into effect on August 1 on imports from a range of countries, including Mexico, Japan, Canada and Brazil, as well as the European Union.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着沃尔玛等零售商警告价格上涨，大多数经济学家预计价格压力将在今夏开始积聚，并持续到年底。他们表示，由于企业仍在销售关税生效前积累的库存，通胀对特朗普的广泛进口关税反应缓慢。商业调查显示，今夏通胀将上升。特朗普上周宣布，针对包括墨西哥、日本、加拿大和巴西在内的多个国家的进口关税将于 8 月 1 日生效，此外还包括欧盟。</p>
</div><p>“The June CPI report is likely to show inflation beginning to strengthen again, albeit not enough to alarm Fed officials at this juncture,” said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo. “While inventory front-running has mitigated the need to raise goods prices, it will become increasingly difficult for businesses to absorb higher import duties as pre-tariff stockpiles dwindle.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“六月的 CPI 报告可能会显示通胀开始再次增强，尽管在此时并不足以让美联储官员感到担忧，” 富国银行高级经济学家 Sarah House 表示。“虽然库存前置减轻了提高商品价格的必要性，但随着关税前的库存减少，企业吸收更高进口关税的难度将越来越大。”</p>
</div><p>The CPI likely increased 0.3% last month after edging up 0.1% in May, a Reuters survey of economists showed. That would be the largest gain since January, with gasoline prices likely rebounding after four straight monthly declines. Economists expect mild food price increases, thanks to a moderation in the cost of eggs as an avian flu outbreak abates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据路透社对经济学家的调查，CPI 上个月可能上涨 0.3%，而五月份仅上涨 0.1%。这将是自一月份以来的最大增幅，汽油价格在连续四个月下降后可能反弹。经济学家预计食品价格将温和上涨，得益于禽流感疫情减缓导致鸡蛋成本的适度下降。</p>
</div><p>In the 12 months through June, the CPI is forecast to advance 2.7% in June after rising by 2.4% in May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在截至六月的 12 个月中，CPI 预计将上涨 2.7%，而五月份上涨 2.4%。</p>
</div><h3>WARMER CORE INFLATION</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>核心通胀回暖</h3>
</div><p>Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI is estimated to have risen 0.3% after edging up 0.1% in May. That reading also would be the biggest advance in the so-called core CPI since January, with the lift likely coming from a number of items that are exposed to tariffs, including furniture and recreation goods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分后，CPI 预计上涨 0.3%，而五月份仅上涨 0.1%。这一数据也将是自一月份以来所谓核心 CPI 的最大增幅，预计主要来自一些受关税影响的商品，包括家具和娱乐产品。</p>
</div><p>“Anecdotal reports suggest that tariff-related price hikes began to finally grow in frequency in June, but I expect the bulk of the impact to come in July and August,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“有轶事报告表明，关税相关的价格上涨在六月开始频繁出现，但我预计大部分影响将在七月和八月显现，” 桑坦德美国资本市场首席经济学家 Stephen Stanley 表示。</p>
</div><p>Solid price increases for goods, however, could be somewhat offset by moderate rises in services costs. Soft demand has limited price increases for services-related categories like air fares as well as hotel and motel rooms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，商品价格的稳固上涨可能会被服务成本的适度上涨所抵消。疲软的需求限制了机票以及酒店和汽车旅馆等服务相关类别的价格上涨。</p>
</div><p>In the 12 months through June, core CPI inflation is estimated to have increased 3.0% after rising 2.8% for three straight months. The Fed tracks different inflation measures for its 2% target. The central bank is expected to leave its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range at the end of a policy meeting later this month. The minutes of the central bank’s June 17-18 meeting, which were published last week, showed only “a couple” of officials said they felt rates could fall as soon as the July 29-30 meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在截至六月的 12 个月中，核心 CPI 通胀预计上涨 3.0%，而此前连续三个月上涨 2.8%。美联储追踪不同的通胀指标以实现其 2% 的目标。预计中央银行将在本月晚些时候的政策会议结束时将基准隔夜利率维持在 4.25%-4.50% 区间。上周发布的美联储 6 月 17-18 日会议纪要显示，只有 “几位” 官员表示他们认为利率可能在 7 月 29-30 日的会议上下降。</p>
</div><p>“And even if slowing services prices are not quite weak enough to keep overall core CPI subdued, only modest services inflation should be an encouraging sign that higher goods prices are not leading to broad-based inflationary pressures,” said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup. “This should keep Fed officials comfortable lowering rates in September even if there is some stronger inflation data in the next few months.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“即使服务价格放缓并不足以使整体核心 CPI 保持低迷，只有适度的服务通胀也应是一个令人鼓舞的迹象，表明更高的商品价格并未导致广泛的通胀压力，” 花旗集团经济学家 Veronica Clark 表示。“这应该使美联储官员在九月份降低利率时感到舒适，即使在接下来的几个月中出现一些更强的通胀数据。”</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs is forecasting monthly core CPI inflation increases of between 0.3% and 0.4% over the next few months, reflecting tariff-related increases in the prices of consumer electronics, autos and apparel. The investment bank expects limited near-term impact on core services inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛预测未来几个月核心 CPI 通胀将月增 0.3% 至 0.4%，反映出消费电子、汽车和服装价格因关税而上涨。该投资银行预计对核心服务通胀的短期影响有限。</p>
</div>

WRAPUP 1-US inflation expected to rise in June with tariff-driven price hikes

- 美国消费者价格指数预计在 6 月上涨 0.3%。  
- 核心 CPI 预计同比上涨 3.0%。  
- 关税引发的价格上涨可能在 6 月开始显现。  

总结 1-预计美国 6 月通胀将因关税导致的价格上涨而上升