<p>英伟达（Nvidia，NVDA 0.37%）股票在 1 月 1 日至 4 月 5 日期间下跌了 30%，这被证明是一个相当大的假象。仅仅几个月后，股价已达到历史新高，许多分析师认为未来还有更大的上涨空间。鉴于该股的非凡动能，现在是仔细审视该股票的好时机。</p>
<p>这家人工智能（AI）芯片制造商能否兑现其股票中蕴含的高期望，还是其大幅上涨是股东减持的机会？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU0MjkvbnZkYS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="467" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU0MjkvbnZkYS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>人工智能热潮才刚刚开始</h2>
<p>在撰写本文时，英伟达的市盈率约为 55，投资者不仅期待英伟达能实现更令人印象深刻的增长，还期待未来几年能保持这种增长。幸运的是，最近的业绩为这种增长前景带来了良好的预兆。</p>
<p>在 5 月份，这家 AI 芯片公司报告的收入为 441 亿美元，同比增长了惊人的 69%。按季度计算，季度收入同比增长了 12%。本季度的主要驱动力是其数据中心收入。该部门负责为人工智能模型提供芯片，同比增长了 73%，达到了 391 亿美元。</p>
<p>展望第二季度，英伟达预计将实现更强劲的增长。公司预计收入为 450 亿美元，意味着同比增长率为 50%。</p>
<p>尤其令人鼓舞的是，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋对其产品需求环境的乐观态度。考虑一下他在公司最近的财报发布中所做的这些乐观评论。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>全球对英伟达 AI 基础设施的需求极其强劲。AI 推理令牌生成在短短一年内激增了十倍，随着 AI 代理的普及，对 AI 计算的需求将加速增长。世界各国正在将 AI 视为与电力和互联网一样的基础设施，而英伟达正处于这一深刻变革的中心。</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>两个不可否认的风险</h2>
<p>鉴于公司令人印象深刻的业务动能以及 AI 芯片市场似乎仍处于早期阶段，可能会让人急于得出结论，认为英伟达是一只必买的股票。但关于这只科技股有两个常被忽视的担忧。首先，当当前的 AI 芯片投资周期开始减弱时会发生什么？此外，如果其他竞争对手缓慢但稳步地制造出可以替代英伟达 AI 芯片的芯片，会发生什么？如果这些对英伟达业务动能的威胁中的任何一个变为现实，销量和价格可能会同时受到压力——这可能会导致股价下跌。</p>
<p>当然，多头会争辩说，由于 AI 仍处于早期阶段，英伟达芯片的需求将远高于一些投资者的预期。此外，他们还会认为，英伟达在竞争对手中的领先地位是如此显著，以至于几乎不可能被任何竞争对手赶上。这两点可能都是真的。但我们生活在一个不确定的世界中。芯片制造商 <strong>英特尔</strong> 曾经也被认为是几乎无敌的。然而，英伟达和其他芯片制造商在功率效率、图形和人工智能方面超越了英特尔，导致了英特尔的衰退。</p>
<p>虽然很难想象英伟达未来会遭遇类似的冲击，但在承认风险时保持一定的谦逊可能是个好主意。</p>
<p>考虑到英伟达令人印象深刻的业务动能以及未来可能较弱的增长率和日益激烈的竞争所带来的风险，我认为对投资者的结论是平衡的：今天的股价可能过高，不适合购买。然而，如果你已经持有该股票，该公司的出色执行力使得继续持有是合理的。然而，股东应预期会经历波动，并确保他们意识到相关风险。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达的股票在经历了今年早些时候 30% 的下跌后，已达到历史新高。分析师对该公司的增长持乐观态度，尤其是在人工智能领域，预计第二季度的收入将达到 450 亿美元，同比增长 50%。然而，潜在风险包括人工智能投资周期的减缓和竞争加剧。虽然目前股票可能过于昂贵，不适合购买，但建议现有股东持有，同时要考虑市场固有的风险和波动性</p>

<p>Nvidia (NVDA 0.37%) stock's 30% slide between Jan. 1 and April 05 has proven to be quite the head fake. Just a few months later, shares are sitting at all-time highs and many analysts think there's more upside ahead. Given the stock's extraordinary momentum, it's a good time to take a close look at the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达（Nvidia，NVDA 0.37%）股票在 1 月 1 日至 4 月 5 日期间下跌了 30%，这被证明是一个相当大的假象。仅仅几个月后，股价已达到历史新高，许多分析师认为未来还有更大的上涨空间。鉴于该股的非凡动能，现在是仔细审视该股票的好时机。</p>
</div><p>Can the artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker live up to the high expectations baked into its stock, or is its big move higher an opportunity for shareholders to take some chips off the table?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家人工智能（AI）芯片制造商能否兑现其股票中蕴含的高期望，还是其大幅上涨是股东减持的机会？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU0MjkvbnZkYS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825429%2Fnvda.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The AI boom is just getting started</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>人工智能热潮才刚刚开始</h2>
</div><p>With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 55 at the time of this writing, investors expect not only more impressive growth from Nvidia but <em>sustained</em> growth for years to come. Fortunately, recent results bode well for this sort of growth profile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在撰写本文时，英伟达的市盈率约为 55，投资者不仅期待英伟达能实现更令人印象深刻的增长，还期待未来几年能保持这种增长。幸运的是，最近的业绩为这种增长前景带来了良好的预兆。</p>
</div><p>In May, the AI chip company reported revenue of $44.1 billion, up an incredible 69% year over year. Sequentially, quarterly revenue was up 12% year over year. The quarter's main driver was its data center revenue. The segment, which is responsible for providing chips for artificial intelligence models, rose 73% year over year to $39.1 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 5 月份，这家 AI 芯片公司报告的收入为 441 亿美元，同比增长了惊人的 69%。按季度计算，季度收入同比增长了 12%。本季度的主要驱动力是其数据中心收入。该部门负责为人工智能模型提供芯片，同比增长了 73%，达到了 391 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead to Q2, Nvidia expects more strong growth. The company guided for revenue of $45 billion, translating to a year-over-year growth rate of 50%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望第二季度，英伟达预计将实现更强劲的增长。公司预计收入为 450 亿美元，意味着同比增长率为 50%。</p>
</div><p>What's especially encouraging is Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's optimism regarding the demand environment for its products. Consider these bullish remarks he made in the company's most recent earnings release.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尤其令人鼓舞的是，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋对其产品需求环境的乐观态度。考虑一下他在公司最近的财报发布中所做的这些乐观评论。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Global demand for NVIDIA's AI infrastructure is incredibly strong. AI inference token generation has surged tenfold in just one year, and as AI agents become mainstream, the demand for AI computing will accelerate. Countries around the world are recognizing AI as essential infrastructure -- just like electricity and the internet -- and NVIDIA stands at the center of this profound transformation.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>全球对英伟达 AI 基础设施的需求极其强劲。AI 推理令牌生成在短短一年内激增了十倍，随着 AI 代理的普及，对 AI 计算的需求将加速增长。世界各国正在将 AI 视为与电力和互联网一样的基础设施，而英伟达正处于这一深刻变革的中心。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Two undeniable risks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>两个不可否认的风险</h2>
</div><p>Given the company's impressive business momentum and the fact that the market for AI chips appears to still be in its early stages, it may be tempting to quickly conclude that Nvidia is a must-buy stock. But there are two concerns about this tech stock that are often overlooked. First, what happens when the current investment cycle for AI chips begins to taper off? Additionally, what happens if other competitors slowly but surely build chips that can serve as alternatives to Nvidia's AI chips? If just one of these threats to Nvidia's business momentum materializes, volume and pricing could be pressured simultaneously -- and this could send shares lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于公司令人印象深刻的业务动能以及 AI 芯片市场似乎仍处于早期阶段，可能会让人急于得出结论，认为英伟达是一只必买的股票。但关于这只科技股有两个常被忽视的担忧。首先，当当前的 AI 芯片投资周期开始减弱时会发生什么？此外，如果其他竞争对手缓慢但稳步地制造出可以替代英伟达 AI 芯片的芯片，会发生什么？如果这些对英伟达业务动能的威胁中的任何一个变为现实，销量和价格可能会同时受到压力——这可能会导致股价下跌。</p>
</div><p>Of course, bulls would argue that since these are still early days for AI and that the demand for Nvidia's chips will be far higher for much longer than some investors think. Additionally, they'd argue that Nvidia's lead over its competitors is so significant that it's nearly impossible for any of them to catch up. Both of these things may be true. But we live in an uncertain world. Chipmaker <strong>Intel</strong>, too, was once considered virtually invincible. However, Nvidia and other chipmakers outmaneuvered Intel in terms of power efficiency, graphics, and artificial intelligence, leading to Intel's decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，多头会争辩说，由于 AI 仍处于早期阶段，英伟达芯片的需求将远高于一些投资者的预期。此外，他们还会认为，英伟达在竞争对手中的领先地位是如此显著，以至于几乎不可能被任何竞争对手赶上。这两点可能都是真的。但我们生活在一个不确定的世界中。芯片制造商 <strong>英特尔</strong> 曾经也被认为是几乎无敌的。然而，英伟达和其他芯片制造商在功率效率、图形和人工智能方面超越了英特尔，导致了英特尔的衰退。</p>
</div><p>While it's hard to imagine how Nvidia could be similarly disrupted in the future, embracing some humility when it comes to acknowledging risks is likely a good idea.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然很难想象英伟达未来会遭遇类似的冲击，但在承认风险时保持一定的谦逊可能是个好主意。</p>
</div><p>Considering Nvidia's impressive business momentum alongside the risks associated with a potentially weaker growth rate in the future and rising competition, I believe there's a balanced conclusion when it comes to the takeaway for investors: Shares may be too pricey to buy today. However, the company's incredible execution makes a good case for holding onto the stock if you already own it. However, shareholders should expect a bumpy ride and ensure they are aware of the associated risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到英伟达令人印象深刻的业务动能以及未来可能较弱的增长率和日益激烈的竞争所带来的风险，我认为对投资者的结论是平衡的：今天的股价可能过高，不适合购买。然而，如果你已经持有该股票，该公司的出色执行力使得继续持有是合理的。然而，股东应预期会经历波动，并确保他们意识到相关风险。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Stock at All-Time Highs: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

- Nvidia 股票在 2025 年初经历了 30% 的下滑，但现已创下历史新高。  
- 公司预计 Q2 收入将达 450 亿美元，同比增长 50%。  
- 投资者需关注 AI 芯片市场的竞争风险及未来增长放缓的可能性。

英伟达股票创历史新高：是该买入、卖出还是持有？