<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.56%) 的投资者已经习惯了波动。这只股票在过去十年中的涨跌起伏不定，但该公司的股东在过去八个月里经历了一段特别疯狂的旅程。</p>
<p>考虑到公司正在发生的一切——机器人出租车的推出、全球销售下滑等——即将于 7 月 23 日举行的财报电话会议将比特斯拉的财报通常更受关注。鉴于所有的关注，现在是买入的时机吗？</p>
<h2>特斯拉的核心业务面临威胁</h2>
<p>尽管围绕特斯拉的许多炒作集中在其正在开发的未来科技上，但投资者必须评估该公司今天的实际情况：一家电动汽车（EV）制造商。是的，投资绝对与未来有关，但你必须牢牢扎根于当前的现实。理解公司如何实现其短期目标对于评估其实现长期愿景的能力至关重要。</p>
<p>在许多方面，特斯拉的电动车业务令人印象深刻。它无疑是国内最成功的电动车制造商，在竞争对手如 <strong>Rivian</strong> 和 <strong>Lucid</strong> 仍在巨额亏损的情况下，特斯拉实现了显著的盈利。而与 <strong>福特</strong> 和 <strong>通用汽车</strong> 等传统汽车制造商相比，特斯拉的利润率更是惊人。尽管在 2024 年特斯拉的营收大约只有这些公司的一半，但其净收入却高于两者。</p>
<p>尽管如此，特斯拉的核心业务并不乐观。公司的销售正在急剧下滑，利润率也在下降，因为它面临着不断上升的制造成本，并调整价格，先是下调以刺激销售，然后又上调以应对特朗普总统的关税影响。这些调整是在公司上一次报告期之后进行的，因此我们必须等到这个夏天才能了解其影响，但公司的第一季度报告显示其收益同比下降超过 70%。这真是一个巨大的下滑。</p>
<h2>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的公众形象正在影响业务</h2>
<p>第一季度的收入环比下降了 25%，第二季度的交付量同比下降了 13%。来自特定市场的报告显示，特斯拉的销售急剧下滑，而整体电动车销售却在增长。</p>
<p>那么，为什么销售会急剧下滑呢？公司声称这与其热门的 Model Y SUV 的改造所引入的延迟有关，因为特斯拉在重新调整制造流程以专注于其推出。虽然这可能有一定影响，但我认为问题的主要原因显然来自于首席执行官埃隆·马斯克所引发的争议。</p>
<p>这位直言不讳的特斯拉领导者首先脱离了公司的日常运营，加入特朗普总统的竞选活动，随后成为特朗普政府新成立的政府效率部（DOGE）的一部分。尽管他后来辞职，回归特斯拉的领导角色，但我认为他在政治上的经历对特斯拉品牌造成了不可逆转的伤害。</p>
<p>他造成的损害将很难弥补，且时机也不可能更糟。特斯拉在质量和技术上的初步领先几乎已经消失，公司面临着来自主要竞争对手的更多竞争，尤其是来自中国的竞争。<strong>比亚迪</strong> 在多个关键市场上已经超越了特斯拉。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ4MTYvY2hhcmdpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ4MTYvY2hhcmdpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>未来可能会很大——但它会来吗？</h2>
<p>也许如果特斯拉能够兑现其交付全球机器人出租车车队和实现国内机器人梦想的承诺，这些挑战就会消失。确实，这些是巨大的市场机会，可能会与其电动车业务相媲美甚至超越。但问题是：我并不相信特斯拉能够在公司声称的时间框架内兑现这些承诺。</p>
<p>现实是，马斯克有过度承诺和未能兑现的习惯。他曾表示他 “非常有信心预测”，到 “明年” 将有 100 万辆特斯拉机器人出租车上路——这是在 2019 年。他多次做出类似的预测，但未能兑现。</p>
<p>最近在奥斯汀推出的机器人出租车非常受控，考虑到之前的承诺以及特斯拉的竞争对手在更多城市运营且限制更少的情况下，这并不算令人印象深刻。</p>
<p>这些竞争对手中的许多都得到了与特斯拉同样资本雄厚的公司的支持。特斯拉要真正交付完全自主的汽车和机器人出租车，可能需要的时间远比许多投资者意识到的要长，而且它可能不是第一个做到这一点的公司。</p>
<p>考虑到这只股票的市盈率高达三位数（而且这是基于前瞻性的），在特斯拉 7 月财报发布之前买入的理由并不充分。任何新投资者都在押注于公司兑现其大胆承诺的能力——我对此并不自信。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉的股票波动较大，市场对即将于 7 月 23 日举行的财报电话会议给予了高度关注。尽管特斯拉是领先的电动车制造商，但由于成本上升和价格调整，销售和利润率面临下降的挑战。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的政治参与也对品牌产生了负面影响。尽管未来在机器人出租车方面存在机会，但人们对特斯拉兑现承诺的能力仍持怀疑态度。由于市盈率较高，在财报发布前购买特斯拉股票的理由似乎较为薄弱</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 3.56%) investors are used to volatility. The stock's rise over the last decade has had its ups and downs, but shareholders of the company have been on a particularly wild ride over the last eight months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.56%) 的投资者已经习惯了波动。这只股票在过去十年中的涨跌起伏不定，但该公司的股东在过去八个月里经历了一段特别疯狂的旅程。</p>
</div><p>With all that's happening for the company -- a robotaxi launch, declining global sales, and more -- the upcoming earnings call on July 23 is going to be watched even more closely than Tesla earnings normally are. Given all the attention, is now the time to buy?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到公司正在发生的一切——机器人出租车的推出、全球销售下滑等——即将于 7 月 23 日举行的财报电话会议将比特斯拉的财报通常更受关注。鉴于所有的关注，现在是买入的时机吗？</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's core business is under threat</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的核心业务面临威胁</h2>
</div><p>While so much of the hype surrounding Tesla is focused on the futuristic technologies it's developing, it's critical for investors to evaluate the company for what it is today: an electric vehicle (EV) maker. Yes, investing is absolutely about the future, but you have to keep your feet firmly planted in the present reality. Understanding how the company delivers on its shorter-term goals is critical to evaluating its ability to deliver on its long-term vision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管围绕特斯拉的许多炒作集中在其正在开发的未来科技上，但投资者必须评估该公司今天的实际情况：一家电动汽车（EV）制造商。是的，投资绝对与未来有关，但你必须牢牢扎根于当前的现实。理解公司如何实现其短期目标对于评估其实现长期愿景的能力至关重要。</p>
</div><p>In many ways, Tesla's EV business is impressive. It is by far the most successful domestic EV maker, delivering significant profitability while competitors like <strong>Rivian</strong> and <strong>Lucid</strong> continue to operate deep in the red. And when compared to legacy automakers like <strong>Ford</strong> and <strong>General Motors</strong>, Tesla's margins are incredible. Despite having roughly half the top-line of these companies in 2024, Tesla's net income was higher than both.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在许多方面，特斯拉的电动车业务令人印象深刻。它无疑是国内最成功的电动车制造商，在竞争对手如 <strong>Rivian</strong> 和 <strong>Lucid</strong> 仍在巨额亏损的情况下，特斯拉实现了显著的盈利。而与 <strong>福特</strong> 和 <strong>通用汽车</strong> 等传统汽车制造商相比，特斯拉的利润率更是惊人。尽管在 2024 年特斯拉的营收大约只有这些公司的一半，但其净收入却高于两者。</p>
</div><p>As impressive as this is, all is not well for Tesla's core business. The company's sales are plummeting, and so too are its margins as it faces rising manufacturing costs and adjusts prices, first down in an attempt to boost sales and then up in order to counter the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariffs. These adjustments have come after the company's last reporting period, so we'll have to wait until this summer to understand their impacts, but the company's first-quarter report showed its earnings fall over 70% year over year. That's quite a decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，特斯拉的核心业务并不乐观。公司的销售正在急剧下滑，利润率也在下降，因为它面临着不断上升的制造成本，并调整价格，先是下调以刺激销售，然后又上调以应对特朗普总统的关税影响。这些调整是在公司上一次报告期之后进行的，因此我们必须等到这个夏天才能了解其影响，但公司的第一季度报告显示其收益同比下降超过 70%。这真是一个巨大的下滑。</p>
</div><h2>CEO Elon Musk's public profile is affecting the business</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的公众形象正在影响业务</h2>
</div><p>The first quarter saw a 25% sequential revenue decline, and Q2 deliveries were down 13% year over year. Reports from specific markets show Tesla sales falling off a cliff while overall EV sales gain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一季度的收入环比下降了 25%，第二季度的交付量同比下降了 13%。来自特定市场的报告显示，特斯拉的销售急剧下滑，而整体电动车销售却在增长。</p>
</div><p>So why are sales plummeting? The company claims it has to do with delays introduced by the revamp of its popular Model Y SUV as Tesla overhauled manufacturing to focus on its launch. While this may have had some effect, I think it's clear the lion's share of the issue comes from the controversy surrounding CEO Elon Musk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，为什么销售会急剧下滑呢？公司声称这与其热门的 Model Y SUV 的改造所引入的延迟有关，因为特斯拉在重新调整制造流程以专注于其推出。虽然这可能有一定影响，但我认为问题的主要原因显然来自于首席执行官埃隆·马斯克所引发的争议。</p>
</div><p>The outspoken leader of Tesla stepped away from the company's day-to-day operations to first join President Trump on the campaign trail and then as part of the Trump administration's newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Although he has since stepped down, returning to a more active role in Tesla's leadership, his time in politics, in my opinion, did irreparable harm to the Tesla brand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这位直言不讳的特斯拉领导者首先脱离了公司的日常运营，加入特朗普总统的竞选活动，随后成为特朗普政府新成立的政府效率部（DOGE）的一部分。尽管他后来辞职，回归特斯拉的领导角色，但我认为他在政治上的经历对特斯拉品牌造成了不可逆转的伤害。</p>
</div><p>The damage he's done will be hard to undo and likely couldn't come at a worse time. Tesla's initial lead in quality and technology has all but evaporated, and the company is facing more competition than ever from major players, especially from China. <strong>BYD</strong> has overtaken Tesla in several key markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他造成的损害将很难弥补，且时机也不可能更糟。特斯拉在质量和技术上的初步领先几乎已经消失，公司面临着来自主要竞争对手的更多竞争，尤其是来自中国的竞争。<strong>比亚迪</strong> 在多个关键市场上已经超越了特斯拉。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ4MTYvY2hhcmdpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824816%2Fcharging.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The future could be big -- but will it come?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>未来可能会很大——但它会来吗？</h2>
</div><p>Perhaps these challenges will fall away if Tesla manages to follow through on its promises of delivering a global robotaxi fleet and making domestic robots a reality. It's true these are huge market opportunities that could rival or even eclipse its EV business. But here's the thing: I'm not convinced Tesla can deliver on these promises, especially in the time frame the company is claiming.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也许如果特斯拉能够兑现其交付全球机器人出租车车队和实现国内机器人梦想的承诺，这些挑战就会消失。确实，这些是巨大的市场机会，可能会与其电动车业务相媲美甚至超越。但问题是：我并不相信特斯拉能够在公司声称的时间框架内兑现这些承诺。</p>
</div><p>The reality is Musk has a habit of overpromising and underdelivering. He said he was &#34;very confident predicting&#34; there would be 1 million Tesla robotaxis on the roads no later than &#34;next year&#34; -- in 2019. He's made similar predictions many times and failed to delivered on them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现实是，马斯克有过度承诺和未能兑现的习惯。他曾表示他 “非常有信心预测”，到 “明年” 将有 100 万辆特斯拉机器人出租车上路——这是在 2019 年。他多次做出类似的预测，但未能兑现。</p>
</div><p>The recent robotaxi launch in Austin was highly controlled and not exactly impressive, given what has been promised before and the fact Tesla's competitors have been operating in more cities with fewer guardrails for more than a year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近在奥斯汀推出的机器人出租车非常受控，考虑到之前的承诺以及特斯拉的竞争对手在更多城市运营且限制更少的情况下，这并不算令人印象深刻。</p>
</div><p>Many of these competitors have the backing of companies as well capitalized as Tesla. It will likely take much longer than many investors realize before Tesla delivers truly autonomous cars and robotaxis, and it may not be the first company to do it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些竞争对手中的许多都得到了与特斯拉同样资本雄厚的公司的支持。特斯拉要真正交付完全自主的汽车和机器人出租车，可能需要的时间远比许多投资者意识到的要长，而且它可能不是第一个做到这一点的公司。</p>
</div><p>With the stock sporting a triple-digit price-to-earnings ratio (and that's on a forward-looking basis), the case for buying Tesla before its July earnings report just isn't there. Any new investor is betting big on the company's ability to deliver on its bold promises -- I'm not confident it can.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这只股票的市盈率高达三位数（而且这是基于前瞻性的），在特斯拉 7 月财报发布之前买入的理由并不充分。任何新投资者都在押注于公司兑现其大胆承诺的能力——我对此并不自信。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Tesla Stock Before July 23?

- 特斯拉面临销售下滑和利润下降的挑战。  
- CEO 马斯克的政治活动对品牌造成了负面影响。  
- 投资者对特斯拉未来的承诺持怀疑态度。  

你是否应该在 7 月 23 日之前购买特斯拉股票？