<p><strong>美光科技</strong>(MU -2.73%) 的股票在周四下午再次遭受重创，截至东部时间 12:20 下跌 3.1%。</p>
<p>本周早些时候，如果你还记得，计算机半导体存储制造商的股票在 Edgewater Research 警告计算机内存芯片的价格和需求将在 2025 年下半年下滑后暴跌。</p>
<p>今天，我们听到了来自 <strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong>(TSM 3.69%) 的相同预测的回声，该公司是合同芯片制造领域最大的参与者。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU2NDgvMS1kb3R0ZWQtcmVkLWFycm93LWdsb3dpbmctYW5kLWdvaW5nLWRvd24uanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU2NDgvMS1kb3R0ZWQtcmVkLWFycm93LWdsb3dpbmctYW5kLWdvaW5nLWRvd24uanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>为什么台积电的消息应该让美光投资者感到担忧</h2>
<p>今天早上，台积电报告了强劲的第二季度销售和收益。根据一个指标，销售额增长了 44.4%，利润增长了 60.7%。</p>
<p>这对现在来说是个好消息。但在指导方面，台积电警告投资者，第三季度销售将略有放缓，最多增长 38%，而毛利和营业利润率将环比下降。</p>
<p>不幸的是，这条消息与 Edgewater 本周早些时候告诉我们的内容一致：芯片需求和芯片价格在今年下半年（即第三季度和第四季度）都将处于 “季节性以下”，并且有 “向下偏差”——这意味着情况可能会变得更糟，而不是更好。</p>
<h2>美光股票值得出售吗？</h2>
<p>美光自己的数据并没有带来更多的乐观理由。</p>
<p>正如我在周一指出的，股票报告了良好的收益——在过去 12 个月中净利润为 62 亿美元。然而，根据公认会计原则（GAAP），自由现金流仅为其收益的三分之一不到：过去一年仅产生了 19 亿美元。</p>
<p>这对于支持美光 1260 亿美元的市值来说并不算多。实际上，这使得该股票的市盈率为 66.5，这可能是支付过高的价格。如果价格和需求正在恶化，而不是改善，这几乎肯定是过高的。</p>

美光科技

<p>美光科技的股票因对计算机内存芯片需求和价格下滑的担忧而下跌了 3.1%，这一担忧与台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）谨慎的第三季度指引相呼应。TSMC 报告了强劲的第二季度业绩，但警告销售放缓和利润率下降。美光科技的财务数据显示其盈利与自由现金流之间存在显著差距，这引发了人们对其 66.5 的高市盈率与自由现金流比率的担忧，尤其是在市场下行的情况下</p>

<p><strong>Micron</strong>(MU -2.73%) stock is getting hammered again Thursday afternoon, down 3.1% through 12:20 p.m. ET.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美光科技</strong>(MU -2.73%) 的股票在周四下午再次遭受重创，截至东部时间 12:20 下跌 3.1%。</p>
</div><p>Earlier in the week, if you recall, shares of the computer semiconductor memory maker tumbled after Edgewater Research warned that prices and demand for computer memory chips would fall in the second half of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周早些时候，如果你还记得，计算机半导体存储制造商的股票在 Edgewater Research 警告计算机内存芯片的价格和需求将在 2025 年下半年下滑后暴跌。</p>
</div><p>Today, we're hearing echoes of the same forecast from <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 3.69%), the biggest player in contract chip manufacturing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，我们听到了来自 <strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong>(TSM 3.69%) 的相同预测的回声，该公司是合同芯片制造领域最大的参与者。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU2NDgvMS1kb3R0ZWQtcmVkLWFycm93LWdsb3dpbmctYW5kLWdvaW5nLWRvd24uanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825648%2F1-dotted-red-arrow-glowing-and-going-down.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why TSMC's news should worry Micron investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么台积电的消息应该让美光投资者感到担忧</h2>
</div><p>Early this morning, TSMC reported strong Q2 sales and earnings. By one measure, sales climbed 44.4%, and profits were up 60.7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天早上，台积电报告了强劲的第二季度销售和收益。根据一个指标，销售额增长了 44.4%，利润增长了 60.7%。</p>
</div><p>That's great news for now. But turning to guidance, TSMC warned investors that Q3 sales will slow a bit, rising 38% at best, while gross and operating profit margins will both decline sequentially.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对现在来说是个好消息。但在指导方面，台积电警告投资者，第三季度销售将略有放缓，最多增长 38%，而毛利和营业利润率将环比下降。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, this news tallies with what Edgewater told us earlier in the week: That chip demand and chip prices will both be &#34;subseasonal&#34; in the second half of this year (meaning Q3, and Q4 as well), and that there's a &#34;bias lower&#34; -- meaning things could get worse, not better.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，这条消息与 Edgewater 本周早些时候告诉我们的内容一致：芯片需求和芯片价格在今年下半年（即第三季度和第四季度）都将处于 “季节性以下”，并且有 “向下偏差”——这意味着情况可能会变得更糟，而不是更好。</p>
</div><h2>Is Micron stock a sell?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美光股票值得出售吗？</h2>
</div><p>Micron's own numbers don't give any more cause for optimism.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美光自己的数据并没有带来更多的乐观理由。</p>
</div><p>As I pointed out on Monday, the stock reports good earnings -- $6.2 billion in net profit over the last 12 months. However, free cash flow is less than one-third as good as its earnings according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP): Just $1.9 billion generated over the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我在周一指出的，股票报告了良好的收益——在过去 12 个月中净利润为 62 亿美元。然而，根据公认会计原则（GAAP），自由现金流仅为其收益的三分之一不到：过去一年仅产生了 19 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>That's not a lot of cash to support Micron's $126 billion market cap. It actually gives the stock a price-to-free cash flow ratio of 66.5, which is probably too much to pay. It's almost certainly too much if pricing and demand are getting worse, not better.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对于支持美光 1260 亿美元的市值来说并不算多。实际上，这使得该股票的市盈率为 66.5，这可能是支付过高的价格。如果价格和需求正在恶化，而不是改善，这几乎肯定是过高的。</p>
</div>

Why Micron Stock Dropped Today

- Micron 股票周四下午再次下跌 3.1%。  
- TSMC 警告 Q3 销售将放缓，芯片需求和价格可能下降。  
- Micron 自身现金流不足，市值高达 1260 亿美元。  

为什么美光科技的股价今天出现下跌