<p><strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 0.39%）成立于 1994 年，最初通过互联网销售书籍，迅速成为电子商务的先锋，现在提供超过 6 亿种不同的产品。它在云计算、流媒体和数字广告等其他业务的扩展，帮助公司估值飙升至惊人的 2.4 万亿美元。</p>
<p>但在上周一（7 月 14 日），<strong>比特币</strong>（BTC 1.04%）的市值短暂超过了 2.4 万亿美元，当时单个币的价值飙升至超过 123,000 美元。这种加密货币于 2009 年推出，因此它达到这一里程碑的速度甚至比亚马逊还要快，这对于一种不产生任何收入或收益的资产来说是相当了不起的。此外，比特币现在的价值超过了 <strong>字母表</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>，甚至 <strong>特斯拉</strong>。</p>
<p>比特币可能仍有上涨空间。<strong>Strategy</strong>（MSTR -1.00%）的迈克尔·塞勒预测，到 2045 年，单个币的价格可能会超过 1300 万美元，这意味着从周一的峰值来看，潜在的上涨幅度高达 10,500%。这个目标有多现实？继续阅读以了解更多。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU0NTgvYS1nb2xkLWNvaW4td2l0aC10aGUtYml0Y29pbi1zeW1ib2wtb24taXRzLWZhY2UuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU0NTgvYS1nb2xkLWNvaW4td2l0aC10aGUtYml0Y29pbi1zeW1ib2wtb24taXRzLWZhY2UuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>塞勒表示比特币将改变全球金融体系</h2>
<p>到目前为止，比特币作为货币的实用性并不高，因为与传统货币如美元相比，其波动性较大。但越来越多的投资者认为它是一个良好的价值储存工具，原因如下：</p>
<ul>
<li>比特币的供应量上限为 2100 万个，因此它是一种稀缺资产，类似于黄金。</li>
<li>它是完全去中心化的，因此不受任何个人、公司或政府的控制。</li>
<li>它建立在一个安全且可公开验证的记录系统——区块链之上。</li>
</ul>
<p>塞勒创立了前身为 MicroStrategy 的软件转型比特币财库公司，他认为将世界上每一个实物资产 “代币化” 到区块链上将创造透明度，并解决当前金融体系中的一些低效问题。例如，购买房地产伴随着高额的法律费用，因为大多数物业的历史不透明，需要繁琐的研究才能揭示。但如果我们将每一笔房地产交易记录在区块链上，记录将突然变得透明，并可由任何潜在买家验证。</p>
<p>塞勒表示，他认为比特币将是代币化过程中的完美储备资产，因为其去中心化的特性。这意味着比特币将是每个人用来购买、出售或转移代币化资产的货币。因此，任何想要参与这个新金融体系的人都必须在某个时刻使用这种加密货币，从而创造出一种有机的需求来源，可能推动其价格上涨。</p>
<p>实现塞勒的愿景并不容易，因为这需要全球合作。但唐纳德·特朗普总统有非常支持加密货币的议程，因此如果美国政府通过创建法律框架和规则标准来引领，世界可能会跟随。</p>
<h2>每个比特币 1300 万美元意味着天文数字（且可能不切实际）的估值</h2>
<p>根据塞勒的说法，全球约有 500 万亿美元的资产符合代币化条件。他相信到 2045 年，这些资产可以转移到区块链上，这将创造足够的需求，使单个比特币的价格飙升至 1300 万美元。这将是从周一约 123,000 美元的峰值上涨 10,500%。</p>
<p>然而，每个比特币 1300 万美元将意味着完全稀释后的市值为 273 万亿美元（基于其 2100 万个的总供应量）。这意味着这种加密货币的价值将是整个美国经济产出的九倍，而去年美国经济产出为 29.7 万亿美元。它的价值也将是 <strong>英伟达</strong> 的 66 倍，后者目前是全球最大的公司，市值为 4.2 万亿美元。</p>
<p>因此，我认为塞勒的目标不切实际。即使他的愿景成为现实，世界上所有资产都被代币化到区块链上，只有在每个人在出售资产后仍持有他们的比特币时，比特币的价值才会飙升。正如我之前提到的，比特币并不是一种优秀的日常货币。全球只有 6600 家商户接受比特币作为商品和服务的支付（根据加密目录 Cryptwerk），因此人们必须将他们的比特币转换回法定货币以继续生活。</p>
<p>因此，购买比特币以获取资产的人群将与几乎相等数量的卖家相遇，导致价值可能保持中立——而不是增加。</p>
<h2>比特币最终会成为广泛接受的货币吗？</h2>
<p>在我看来，比特币永远不会成为真正的全球货币。每个经济体的运作速度不同，这就是为什么一些国家的法定货币比其他国家更强。澳大利亚和越南的货币远不如美国这样的经济强国，这帮助它们在全球舞台上竞争，使其出口对更大贸易伙伴更具吸引力。</p>
<p>如果每个国家都采用比特币，最小的经济体将与美国等国家处于同一水平，这将损害它们的出口并影响公民的生活质量。这是一些国家可能倾向于拒绝塞勒全球代币化计划的原因之一。</p>
<p>但这并不意味着比特币现在是一个糟糕的投资。当前所有地上黄金储备的总价值为 22.4 万亿美元，因此如果越来越多的投资者继续将其视为合法的价值储存工具，这可能是比特币市值的一个现实目标。这将导致每个比特币的价格为 1,066,000 美元，意味着从周一的峰值来看，潜在的上涨幅度约为 770%。</p>
<p>这个情景并没有保证会实现，但我认为它成为现实的可能性比 Saylor 的预测更大。毕竟，重要的是要记住，Strategy 拥有 601,550 个比特币，价值约 710 亿美元，因此 Saylor 有很大的动力发布看涨预测。</p>

亚马逊

MSTR

<p>比特币的市值最近超过了 2.4 万亿美元，与亚马逊的估值相匹配。迈克尔·塞勒预测到 2045 年，比特币的价格可能达到每枚 130 万美元，比其最高点的 12.3 万美元增长 10,500%。他认为，比特币的供应量有限和去中心化的特性使其成为一种强有力的价值储存工具，尤其是在全球资产代币化方面。然而，这一估值将超过美国经济的产出，可能不切实际，因为比特币在日常货币使用中面临挑战。比特币作为全球货币的未来仍然不确定，各国经济的法币强度差异也使情况复杂</p>

<p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 0.39%) was founded in 1994 to sell books using the internet, and it quickly became an e-commerce pioneer which now offers more than 600 million different products. Its expansion into other businesses like cloud computing, streaming, and digital advertising helped catapult the company's valuation to an eye-popping $2.4 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 0.39%）成立于 1994 年，最初通过互联网销售书籍，迅速成为电子商务的先锋，现在提供超过 6 亿种不同的产品。它在云计算、流媒体和数字广告等其他业务的扩展，帮助公司估值飙升至惊人的 2.4 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>But last Monday (July 14), <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC 1.04%) briefly surpassed $2.4 trillion in market capitalization when the value of a single coin rocketed past $123,000. The cryptocurrency was introduced in 2009, so it reached the milestone even faster than Amazon, which is remarkable for an asset that doesn't produce any revenue or earnings. Furthermore, Bitcoin is now worth more than <strong>Alphabet</strong>, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, and even <strong>Tesla</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在上周一（7 月 14 日），<strong>比特币</strong>（BTC 1.04%）的市值短暂超过了 2.4 万亿美元，当时单个币的价值飙升至超过 123,000 美元。这种加密货币于 2009 年推出，因此它达到这一里程碑的速度甚至比亚马逊还要快，这对于一种不产生任何收入或收益的资产来说是相当了不起的。此外，比特币现在的价值超过了 <strong>字母表</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>，甚至 <strong>特斯拉</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin might still have room to run. <strong>Strategy</strong>'s (MSTR -1.00%) Michael Saylor predicts that the price of a single coin could top $13 million by 2045, translating to a whopping 10,500% upside from Monday's peak. How realistic is that target? Read on to find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币可能仍有上涨空间。<strong>Strategy</strong>（MSTR -1.00%）的迈克尔·塞勒预测，到 2045 年，单个币的价格可能会超过 1300 万美元，这意味着从周一的峰值来看，潜在的上涨幅度高达 10,500%。这个目标有多现实？继续阅读以了解更多。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU0NTgvYS1nb2xkLWNvaW4td2l0aC10aGUtYml0Y29pbi1zeW1ib2wtb24taXRzLWZhY2UuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825458%2Fa-gold-coin-with-the-bitcoin-symbol-on-its-face.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Saylor says Bitcoin will transform the global financial system</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>塞勒表示比特币将改变全球金融体系</h2>
</div><p>So far, Bitcoin hasn't proven to be very useful as a currency because of its high volatility relative to traditional currencies like the U.S. dollar. But a growing number of investors consider it to be a good store of value for the following reasons:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，比特币作为货币的实用性并不高，因为与传统货币如美元相比，其波动性较大。但越来越多的投资者认为它是一个良好的价值储存工具，原因如下：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Bitcoin has a capped supply of 21 million coins, so it's a scarce asset, similar to gold.</li>
<li>It's fully decentralized, so it isn't controlled by any person, company, or government.</li>
<li>It's built on a secure, and publicly verifiable system of record called the blockchain.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>比特币的供应量上限为 2100 万个，因此它是一种稀缺资产，类似于黄金。</li>
<li>它是完全去中心化的，因此不受任何个人、公司或政府的控制。</li>
<li>它建立在一个安全且可公开验证的记录系统——区块链之上。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Saylor, who founded the software-turned-Bitcoin treasury company formerly known as MicroStrategy, believes that &#34;tokenizing&#34; every physical asset in the world onto the blockchain would create transparency and also solve some of the inefficiencies in the current financial system. For instance, buying real estate comes with high legal fees because most properties have an opaque history that requires tedious research to uncover. But if we placed every real estate transaction on the blockchain, records would suddenly become transparent and verifiable by any prospective buyer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>塞勒创立了前身为 MicroStrategy 的软件转型比特币财库公司，他认为将世界上每一个实物资产 “代币化” 到区块链上将创造透明度，并解决当前金融体系中的一些低效问题。例如，购买房地产伴随着高额的法律费用，因为大多数物业的历史不透明，需要繁琐的研究才能揭示。但如果我们将每一笔房地产交易记录在区块链上，记录将突然变得透明，并可由任何潜在买家验证。</p>
</div><p>Saylor says he thinks Bitcoin would be the perfect reserve asset for the tokenization process because of its decentralized nature. This means Bitcoin would be the currency everybody uses to buy, sell, or transfer tokenized assets. Therefore, anyone who wants to participate in this new financial system will have to use the cryptocurrency at some point, creating an organic source of demand that could drive its price higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>塞勒表示，他认为比特币将是代币化过程中的完美储备资产，因为其去中心化的特性。这意味着比特币将是每个人用来购买、出售或转移代币化资产的货币。因此，任何想要参与这个新金融体系的人都必须在某个时刻使用这种加密货币，从而创造出一种有机的需求来源，可能推动其价格上涨。</p>
</div><p>Bringing Saylor's vision to life won't be easy because it will require global cooperation. But President Donald Trump has a very pro-crypto agenda, so the world might follow if the U.S. government were to lead the way by creating a legal framework with rules and standards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>实现塞勒的愿景并不容易，因为这需要全球合作。但唐纳德·特朗普总统有非常支持加密货币的议程，因此如果美国政府通过创建法律框架和规则标准来引领，世界可能会跟随。</p>
</div><h2>$13 million per Bitcoin implies a sky-high (and potentially unrealistic) valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>每个比特币 1300 万美元意味着天文数字（且可能不切实际）的估值</h2>
</div><p>According to Saylor, there are about $500 trillion in global assets eligible for tokenization. He believes they can be shifted onto the blockchain by 2045, which would create enough demand to send the price of a single Bitcoin soaring to $13 million. That would be a whopping 10,500% increase from Monday's peak of about $123,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据塞勒的说法，全球约有 500 万亿美元的资产符合代币化条件。他相信到 2045 年，这些资产可以转移到区块链上，这将创造足够的需求，使单个比特币的价格飙升至 1300 万美元。这将是从周一约 123,000 美元的峰值上涨 10,500%。</p>
</div><p>However, $13 million per Bitcoin would translate to a fully diluted market capitalization of $273 trillion (based on its total supply of 21 million coins). That means the cryptocurrency would be worth a whopping nine times more than the output of the entire U.S. economy, which was $29.7 trillion last year. It would also be 66 times more valuable than <strong>Nvidia</strong>, which is currently the world's largest company thanks to its market cap of $4.2 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，每个比特币 1300 万美元将意味着完全稀释后的市值为 273 万亿美元（基于其 2100 万个的总供应量）。这意味着这种加密货币的价值将是整个美国经济产出的九倍，而去年美国经济产出为 29.7 万亿美元。它的价值也将是 <strong>英伟达</strong> 的 66 倍，后者目前是全球最大的公司，市值为 4.2 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>As a result, I think Saylor's target is unrealistic. Even if his vision became reality and all of the world's assets were tokenized onto the blockchain, Bitcoin would only soar in value if every person held on to their coins after selling an asset. As I alluded to earlier, Bitcoin isn't a great everyday currency. Only 6,600 merchants worldwide accept it as payment for goods and services (according to crypto directory Cryptwerk), so people would have to convert their coins back to fiat currency to carry on with their lives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我认为塞勒的目标不切实际。即使他的愿景成为现实，世界上所有资产都被代币化到区块链上，只有在每个人在出售资产后仍持有他们的比特币时，比特币的价值才会飙升。正如我之前提到的，比特币并不是一种优秀的日常货币。全球只有 6600 家商户接受比特币作为商品和服务的支付（根据加密目录 Cryptwerk），因此人们必须将他们的比特币转换回法定货币以继续生活。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the pool of people who are purchasing Bitcoin to acquire an asset would be met with an almost equal number of sellers, leading to a potentially neutral -- not increasing -- value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，购买比特币以获取资产的人群将与几乎相等数量的卖家相遇，导致价值可能保持中立——而不是增加。</p>
</div><h2>Could Bitcoin eventually become a widely adopted currency?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特币最终会成为广泛接受的货币吗？</h2>
</div><p>In my opinion, Bitcoin will never be a true global currency. Every economy operates at a different speed, which is why some countries have stronger fiat currencies than others. Australia and Vietnam have much weaker currencies than economic powerhouses like the U.S., which helps them compete on the global stage by making their exports more attractive to larger trading partners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，比特币永远不会成为真正的全球货币。每个经济体的运作速度不同，这就是为什么一些国家的法定货币比其他国家更强。澳大利亚和越南的货币远不如美国这样的经济强国，这帮助它们在全球舞台上竞争，使其出口对更大贸易伙伴更具吸引力。</p>
</div><p>If every country adopted Bitcoin, the smallest economies would be thrust onto a level playing field with the likes of the U.S., which would damage their exports and dent their citizens' quality of life. This is one reason several countries might be inclined to reject Saylor's plan for tokenization on a global scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果每个国家都采用比特币，最小的经济体将与美国等国家处于同一水平，这将损害它们的出口并影响公民的生活质量。这是一些国家可能倾向于拒绝塞勒全球代币化计划的原因之一。</p>
</div><p>But that doesn't mean Bitcoin is a bad investment right now. The total value of all above-ground gold reserves currently stands at $22.4 trillion, so that could be a realistic target for Bitcoin's market cap if a growing number of investors continue to view it as a legitimate store of value. It would result in a price-per-Bitcoin of $1,066,000, implying a potential upside of about 770% from Monday's peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这并不意味着比特币现在是一个糟糕的投资。当前所有地上黄金储备的总价值为 22.4 万亿美元，因此如果越来越多的投资者继续将其视为合法的价值储存工具，这可能是比特币市值的一个现实目标。这将导致每个比特币的价格为 1,066,000 美元，意味着从周一的峰值来看，潜在的上涨幅度约为 770%。</p>
</div><p>There's no guarantee that this scenario will play out, but I think it has a better shot at becoming reality than Saylor's forecast. After all, it's important to remember that Strategy owns 601,550 Bitcoin worth about $71 billion, so Saylor has a very big incentive to issue bullish predictions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个情景并没有保证会实现，但我认为它成为现实的可能性比 Saylor 的预测更大。毕竟，重要的是要记住，Strategy 拥有 601,550 个比特币，价值约 710 亿美元，因此 Saylor 有很大的动力发布看涨预测。</p>
</div>

This Unstoppable Cryptocurrency Is Now As Big As Amazon, and It Could Soar By Another 10,500%, According to Strategy's Michael Saylor

- 亚马逊成立于 1994 年，现市值达 2.4 万亿美元。  
- 比特币在 7 月 14 日市值短暂超过 2.4 万亿美元，单币价值超 123,000 美元。  
- Saylor 预测比特币到 2045 年可能涨至 1300 万美元，但这一目标被认为不切实际。

这种势不可挡的加密货币现在已经和亚马逊一样大。根据 Strategy 的 Michael Saylor 的说法，它可能会再上涨 10,500%