<p><strong>字母表</strong>(GOOG 0.52%)(GOOGL 0.36%) 在日历上有一个重要的日期：7 月 23 日。在那天市场收盘后，它将向投资者更新第二季度的业绩，我认为这些数据可能是字母表股票需要的催化剂，使其飙升。</p>
<p>字母表目前是市场上最不受欢迎的大型科技股之一，与同行和更广泛的市场相比，其估值相对便宜。市场特别关注一个问题，如果字母表在这方面向投资者提供好消息，股票可能会迎来上涨的机会。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ4NTIvb3ZlcmpveWVkLXNob3V0aW5nLWZyaWVuZHMtY2VsZWJyYXRpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ4NTIvb3ZlcmpveWVkLXNob3V0aW5nLWZyaWVuZHMtY2VsZWJyYXRpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>字母表的交易价格远低于同行和更广泛的市场</h2>
<p>字母表旗下有多家公司，但最大（也是最重要）的公司是谷歌搜索。巧合的是，这也是投资者最担心的领域，这就是为什么该股票的交易价格低于同行的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1bf7e29759dd4801fe13ddf2c62b678d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1bf7e29759dd4801fe13ddf2c62b678d.png"/></p>
<p>GOOG 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>尽管从低点回升，但字母表的股票仍然以不到 19 倍的前瞻性收益交易，这远低于其他大型科技股。此外，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的前瞻性收益为 23.7 倍，因此其估值相对于更广泛的市场有显著折扣。这传达了对字母表未来的深刻担忧，因为其过去表现相当强劲。</p>
<p>在第一季度，字母表的收入同比增长 12%，而稀释每股收益（EPS）则增长了令人印象深刻的 49%。这些都是强劲的业绩，如果其他任何大型科技公司发布这样的收益，它们的估值都会很高。然而，投资者担心谷歌可能会失去市场份额。</p>
<p>华尔街的主要担忧是谷歌搜索可能会受到生成性人工智能的冲击。越来越多的消费者开始使用生成性人工智能而不是谷歌搜索，这可能导致其在该平台上的广告收入下降。我们已经看到一些影响，因为谷歌的搜索引擎市场份额首次跌破 90%，这是自 2015 年以来的首次。此外，有传言称各种生成性人工智能公司将推出以人工智能为首的网络浏览器，这将威胁到谷歌浏览器。</p>
<p>这些都是谷歌搜索面临的巨大逆风，但它们尚未在业绩中显现出来。</p>
<h2>所有关于谷歌搜索的担忧尚未实现</h2>
<p>在第一季度，谷歌搜索的收入同比增长 10%。这与成熟企业应有的增长水平相符，从财务角度来看，所有的担忧似乎都是没有根据的。</p>
<p>可能发生的一件事是确认偏误，华尔街分析师和其他科技领域的人士将谷歌替换为生成性人工智能，但他们忘记了绝大多数人群永远不会转向生成性人工智能，因为传统的谷歌搜索技术已经深深植根于他们的互联网行为中，运作得很好。此外，谷歌实施了人工智能搜索概述，提供了生成性人工智能驱动的谷歌搜索结果概述。</p>
<p>对于绝大多数人来说，这可能足以让他们留在平台上，这将使谷歌搜索保持其主导地位。</p>
<p>我认为这是最可能的结果，随着每个季度谷歌搜索发布强劲业绩（我相信它将在第二季度做到这一点），这一论点将开始被更广泛地接受。</p>
<p>然而，如果你看到谷歌搜索的收入开始下滑，不要惊讶于股票会大幅抛售，因为这将确认空头论点。我认为这不会发生，我坚信字母表今天是一个很好的买入机会，因为悲观情绪尚未影响字母表的财务业绩。</p>

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

<p>Alphabet 的股票预计将在 7 月 23 日发布第二季度业绩更新后上涨，因为其当前交易价格相较于同行处于折扣状态。尽管由于生成性人工智能对谷歌搜索市场份额的担忧，第一季度的业绩显示收入增长 12%，每股收益增长 49%。分析师担心潜在的干扰，但谷歌搜索的收入同比增长 10%，这表明这些担忧可能是没有根据的。作者认为 Alphabet 是一个强烈的买入，预计第二季度将继续表现强劲，同时警告称，谷歌搜索收入的任何下降可能会导致股票的大幅抛售</p>

<p><strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 0.52%)(GOOGL 0.36%) has an important date coming up on the calendar: July 23. After the market closes on that day, it gives investors an update on Q2 results, and I think these figures could be the catalyst Alphabet stock needs to send it soaring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>字母表</strong>(GOOG 0.52%)(GOOGL 0.36%) 在日历上有一个重要的日期：7 月 23 日。在那天市场收盘后，它将向投资者更新第二季度的业绩，我认为这些数据可能是字母表股票需要的催化剂，使其飙升。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet is currently one of the most disliked big tech stocks on the market, and has a fairly cheap valuation compared to its peers and the broader market. The market is particularly concerned about one item, and if Alphabet provides investors with good news on this front, the stock could be ripe for a surge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>字母表目前是市场上最不受欢迎的大型科技股之一，与同行和更广泛的市场相比，其估值相对便宜。市场特别关注一个问题，如果字母表在这方面向投资者提供好消息，股票可能会迎来上涨的机会。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ4NTIvb3ZlcmpveWVkLXNob3V0aW5nLWZyaWVuZHMtY2VsZWJyYXRpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824852%2Foverjoyed-shouting-friends-celebrating.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet trades at a deep discount to its peers and the broader market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>字母表的交易价格远低于同行和更广泛的市场</h2>
</div><p>Alphabet has multiple companies underneath its umbrella, but the largest (and most important) is Google Search. Coincidentally, this is also the segment that investors are the most worried about, which is why the stock trades at a discount to its peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>字母表旗下有多家公司，但最大（也是最重要）的公司是谷歌搜索。巧合的是，这也是投资者最担心的领域，这就是为什么该股票的交易价格低于同行的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1bf7e29759dd4801fe13ddf2c62b678d.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1bf7e29759dd4801fe13ddf2c62b678d.png"/></p>
<p>GOOG PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GOOG 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Although it's recovered from its lows, Alphabet's stock still trades for less than 19 times forward earnings, which is far less than every other big tech stock trades for. Furthermore, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> trades for 23.7 times forward earnings, so it's valued at a significant discount to the broader market. This conveys deep fear about Alphabet's future, as its past has been quite strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管从低点回升，但字母表的股票仍然以不到 19 倍的前瞻性收益交易，这远低于其他大型科技股。此外，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的前瞻性收益为 23.7 倍，因此其估值相对于更广泛的市场有显著折扣。这传达了对字母表未来的深刻担忧，因为其过去表现相当强劲。</p>
</div><p>In Q1, Alphabet's revenue increased 12% year over year, while diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose an impressive 49%. Those are strong results, and if any other big tech company posted earnings like that, they'd have a premium valuation. However, investors are worried about Google's potential to lose market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第一季度，字母表的收入同比增长 12%，而稀释每股收益（EPS）则增长了令人印象深刻的 49%。这些都是强劲的业绩，如果其他任何大型科技公司发布这样的收益，它们的估值都会很高。然而，投资者担心谷歌可能会失去市场份额。</p>
</div><p>The primary concern on Wall Street is that Google Search is poised to be disrupted by generative AI. More consumers are starting to use generative AI instead of Google Search, which could cause its ad revenue on the platform to decline. We've already seen some effects of this occur, as Google's search engine market share fell below 90% for the first time since 2015. Additionally, rumors suggest that various generative AI firms are set to launch artificial intelligence (AI)-first web browsers that would threaten Google Chrome.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街的主要担忧是谷歌搜索可能会受到生成性人工智能的冲击。越来越多的消费者开始使用生成性人工智能而不是谷歌搜索，这可能导致其在该平台上的广告收入下降。我们已经看到一些影响，因为谷歌的搜索引擎市场份额首次跌破 90%，这是自 2015 年以来的首次。此外，有传言称各种生成性人工智能公司将推出以人工智能为首的网络浏览器，这将威胁到谷歌浏览器。</p>
</div><p>These are all massive headwinds for Google Search, but they haven't shown up in the results yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些都是谷歌搜索面临的巨大逆风，但它们尚未在业绩中显现出来。</p>
</div><h2>All the Google Search fears haven't materialized yet</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>所有关于谷歌搜索的担忧尚未实现</h2>
</div><p>In Q1, Google Search's revenue rose 10% year over year. That's in line with where a mature business should be growing, and at least from a financial standpoint, all the fears seem to be unfounded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第一季度，谷歌搜索的收入同比增长 10%。这与成熟企业应有的增长水平相符，从财务角度来看，所有的担忧似乎都是没有根据的。</p>
</div><p>One thing that could be occurring is confirmation bias, where Wall Street analysts and other people in the tech realm have replaced Google with generative AI, but they've forgotten about the vast majority of the population that is never going to make the switch to generative AI because the traditional Google Search techniques ingrained in their internet behavior works just fine for them. Furthermore, Google implemented AI search overviews, which provide a generative AI-powered overview of the Google Search results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能发生的一件事是确认偏误，华尔街分析师和其他科技领域的人士将谷歌替换为生成性人工智能，但他们忘记了绝大多数人群永远不会转向生成性人工智能，因为传统的谷歌搜索技术已经深深植根于他们的互联网行为中，运作得很好。此外，谷歌实施了人工智能搜索概述，提供了生成性人工智能驱动的谷歌搜索结果概述。</p>
</div><p>For the vast majority of the population, this could be enough AI to keep them on the platform, which will cause Google Search to maintain its dominance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于绝大多数人来说，这可能足以让他们留在平台上，这将使谷歌搜索保持其主导地位。</p>
</div><p>I think this is the most likely outcome, and with each passing quarter of Google Search posting strong results (which I believe it will do in Q2), this thesis will start to become more widely accepted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为这是最可能的结果，随着每个季度谷歌搜索发布强劲业绩（我相信它将在第二季度做到这一点），这一论点将开始被更广泛地接受。</p>
</div><p>However, if you see Google Search revenue start to slip, don't be surprised if the stock sells off drastically, as it would be a confirmation of the bear case. I don't think that will happen, and I firmly believe that Alphabet is a great buy today because of the bearish sentiment that has yet to impact Alphabet's financial results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果你看到谷歌搜索的收入开始下滑，不要惊讶于股票会大幅抛售，因为这将确认空头论点。我认为这不会发生，我坚信字母表今天是一个很好的买入机会，因为悲观情绪尚未影响字母表的财务业绩。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Alphabet Stock Will Soar After July 23

- Alphabet 将于 7 月 23 日发布 Q2 财报，可能推动股价上涨。  
- 目前 Alphabet 的市盈率低于同行，市场对其未来持悲观态度。  
- 尽管存在对 Google Search 的担忧，Q1 收入仍增长 10%，显示出强劲表现。  

预测：Alphabet 的股票将在 7 月 23 日之后大幅上涨