<p>对于 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.06%) 的投资者来说，这一年并不好。截至 7 月 14 日，这家消费科技巨头的股价下跌了 17%。<strong>特斯拉</strong> 是 “七大巨头” 中表现更差的唯一公司。</p>
<p>苹果股票今年的失望表现并没有削弱其在过去十年中上涨 564% 的事实。这一增幅远超 <strong>标准普尔</strong> 指数。但其股价目前比去年 12 月的峰值低 19%。</p>
<p>现在是投资者买入的好时机吗？答案可能会让你感到惊讶。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUwMDkvcmVkLWRvd24tYXJyb3ctb24tdG9wLW9mLTEwMC1kb2xsYXItYmlsbHMuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUwMDkvcmVkLWRvd24tYXJyb3ctb24tdG9wLW9mLTEwMC1kb2xsYXItYmlsbHMuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>苹果是世界上最优秀的企业之一</h2>
<p>我相信，长期投资成功的关键在于拥有正确的公司。我的意思是，拥有具有持久竞争优势的高质量企业。此外，从财务实力的角度出发也是必要的。</p>
<p>这就是苹果的突出之处。这个公司之所以如此优秀的一个原因是其品牌影响力。全球消费者都喜欢苹果精美设计的硬件和易于使用的软件。这些产品处于高端市场，确实与人们产生了共鸣。</p>
<p>苹果所建立的生态系统是另一个使其成为卓越企业的原因。其产品仅与公司的软件和服务兼容，这创造了一个封闭的环境，为消费者提供了卓越的体验。这也使得消费者很难转向竞争对手的产品。</p>
<p>在财务实力方面，苹果几乎位于顶尖位置。截至 3 月 29 日，其资产负债表上有 350 亿美元的净现金。在最新的财季中，公司的净收入达到了 250 亿美元。苹果陷入财务困境的风险几乎不存在。</p>
<h2>难以忽视的风险</h2>
<p>无论一家公司多么出色，所有公司在某个时刻都必须克服挑战。苹果也不例外。目前投资者需要关注三个紧迫的问题。</p>
<p>增长正在放缓。2023 财年的收入下降了 2.8%，降至 3830 亿美元，2024 财年仅增长了 2%。在接下来的三年中，华尔街共识分析师预计销售将以 5.3% 的年复合增长率增长。这一前景并没有吸引到以增长为导向的投资者。</p>
<p>在 2025 年第二季度，iPhone 的总收入占比为 49%，这一产品已经进入生命周期的第 18 年。虽然这可能是有史以来最成功的产品，但如今的成熟度并没有真正激励消费者不断购买最新的升级版本。公平地说，苹果的其他产品也非常受欢迎，但在如此高的销售基数上推动有意义的增长是困难的。</p>
<p>人们对苹果在人工智能（AI）领域的进入速度表示担忧。新改进的 AI 驱动的 Siri 预计要到 2026 年才能推出。</p>
<p>而且观察者似乎总是听到来自大型科技同行的新 AI 发展。尽管如此，苹果对用户体验和隐私的关注始终是亮点。</p>
<p>投资者不能忘记动态关税形势。对于其大部分生产，苹果依赖中国，而中国在特朗普总统制定贸易政策时始终处于关注之中。苹果的庞大规模和知名度也使其成为特朗普的攻击目标，他批评该公司将更多生产转移到印度。</p>
<p>最新的挑战确实值得关注。然而，这仍然是一家出色的公司，应该能够应对未来的各种挑战。</p>
<p>但即使股票距离历史高点下跌了 19%，其当前的市盈率（P/E）为 32.5，仍然显得昂贵。实际上，这一数字远高于过去 10 年的平均水平。在市盈率接近 25 之前，投资者不应购买苹果股票。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>苹果的股票从峰值下跌了 19%，引发了是否该趁机买入的疑问。尽管在过去十年中增长了 564%，但近期的表现令人失望，收入下降，增长放缓。苹果强大的品牌和财务状况，包括 350 亿美元的净现金，是积极因素。然而，iPhone 销量放缓、人工智能发展延迟以及关税问题等挑战依然存在。目前的市盈率为 32.5，被认为较高，这表明投资者应等待更有利的估值再考虑购买股票</p>

<p>It hasn't been a good year for investors in <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.06%). As of July 14, shares of the consumer tech powerhouse are down 17%. <strong>Tesla</strong> is the only other &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; company to have a worse performance in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.06%) 的投资者来说，这一年并不好。截至 7 月 14 日，这家消费科技巨头的股价下跌了 17%。<strong>特斯拉</strong> 是 “七大巨头” 中表现更差的唯一公司。</p>
</div><p>Apple stock's disappointing showing this year doesn't take away from the fact that it's up 564% in the past decade. That gain is well ahead of the <strong>S&amp;P</strong> index. But shares are trading 19% below their peak from December last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果股票今年的失望表现并没有削弱其在过去十年中上涨 564% 的事实。这一增幅远超 <strong>标准普尔</strong> 指数。但其股价目前比去年 12 月的峰值低 19%。</p>
</div><p>Is now the time for investors to buy the dip? The answer might surprise you.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在是投资者买入的好时机吗？答案可能会让你感到惊讶。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUwMDkvcmVkLWRvd24tYXJyb3ctb24tdG9wLW9mLTEwMC1kb2xsYXItYmlsbHMuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825009%2Fred-down-arrow-on-top-of-100-dollar-bills.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Apple is one of the world's best businesses</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果是世界上最优秀的企业之一</h2>
</div><p>I believe long-term investing success comes down to owning the right companies. And by this, I mean high-quality businesses that have durable competitive strengths. What's more, operating from a position of financial prowess is also a necessity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我相信，长期投资成功的关键在于拥有正确的公司。我的意思是，拥有具有持久竞争优势的高质量企业。此外，从财务实力的角度出发也是必要的。</p>
</div><p>Here's where Apple stands out. One reason this is such a great company is its brand presence. Consumers across the globe have come to love Apple's beautifully designed hardware and easy-to-use software. These are at the premium end of the spectrum, and they really resonate with people.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是苹果的突出之处。这个公司之所以如此优秀的一个原因是其品牌影响力。全球消费者都喜欢苹果精美设计的硬件和易于使用的软件。这些产品处于高端市场，确实与人们产生了共鸣。</p>
</div><p>The ecosystem Apple has built is another reason this is a superb business. Its products only work with the company's own software and services, which creates a walled garden that makes for an exceptional experience for consumers. This also makes it difficult to switch to the offerings of competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果所建立的生态系统是另一个使其成为卓越企业的原因。其产品仅与公司的软件和服务兼容，这创造了一个封闭的环境，为消费者提供了卓越的体验。这也使得消费者很难转向竞争对手的产品。</p>
</div><p>When it comes to financial strength, Apple is near the top. As of March 29, it carried $35 billion in net cash on its balance sheet. And during the latest fiscal quarter, the business generated $25 billion in net income. The risk that Apple gets into financial trouble is practically nonexistent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在财务实力方面，苹果几乎位于顶尖位置。截至 3 月 29 日，其资产负债表上有 350 亿美元的净现金。在最新的财季中，公司的净收入达到了 250 亿美元。苹果陷入财务困境的风险几乎不存在。</p>
</div><h2>Risks that are too hard to ignore</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>难以忽视的风险</h2>
</div><p>It doesn't matter how wonderful a company is; all of them must overcome challenges at some point. Apple is no different. There are three pressing issues investors need to be mindful of right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论一家公司多么出色，所有公司在某个时刻都必须克服挑战。苹果也不例外。目前投资者需要关注三个紧迫的问题。</p>
</div><p>Growth is slowing. Revenue declined 2.8% in fiscal 2023 to $383 billion, before rising by just 2% in fiscal 2024. Over the following three fiscal years, Wall Street consensus analyst estimates call for sales to increase at a compound annual rate of 5.3%. This outlook isn't exactly bringing in growth-minded investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>增长正在放缓。2023 财年的收入下降了 2.8%，降至 3830 亿美元，2024 财年仅增长了 2%。在接下来的三年中，华尔街共识分析师预计销售将以 5.3% 的年复合增长率增长。这一前景并没有吸引到以增长为导向的投资者。</p>
</div><p>During the second quarter of 2025, 49% of total revenue came from the iPhone, a product that's 18 years into its life cycle. While this might be the most successful product of all time, its maturity these days doesn't really incentivize consumers to constantly buy the newest upgrades. To be fair, Apple's other products are incredibly popular, but it's hard to drive meaningful growth on a very high sales base.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年第二季度，iPhone 的总收入占比为 49%，这一产品已经进入生命周期的第 18 年。虽然这可能是有史以来最成功的产品，但如今的成熟度并没有真正激励消费者不断购买最新的升级版本。公平地说，苹果的其他产品也非常受欢迎，但在如此高的销售基数上推动有意义的增长是困难的。</p>
</div><p>There have been concerns that Apple's entrance into artificial intelligence (AI) has been slow. The new and improved AI-powered Siri isn't expected to be launched until 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人们对苹果在人工智能（AI）领域的进入速度表示担忧。新改进的 AI 驱动的 Siri 预计要到 2026 年才能推出。</p>
</div><p>And it seems that observers are constantly hearing about new AI developments from big tech peers. For what it's worth, though, Apple's focus on the user experience and privacy are always bright spots.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且观察者似乎总是听到来自大型科技同行的新 AI 发展。尽管如此，苹果对用户体验和隐私的关注始终是亮点。</p>
</div><p>Investors can't forget about the dynamic tariff situation. For a lot of its production, the company relies on China, a country that's always on top of President Donald Trump's mind when making decisions about trade policy. It also doesn't help that Apple's sheer size and visibility make it a punching bag for Trump, who criticized the company for moving more production to India.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者不能忘记动态关税形势。对于其大部分生产，苹果依赖中国，而中国在特朗普总统制定贸易政策时始终处于关注之中。苹果的庞大规模和知名度也使其成为特朗普的攻击目标，他批评该公司将更多生产转移到印度。</p>
</div><p>The latest challenges are certainly worth paying attention to. However, this is still a fantastic company that should be able to navigate whatever comes its way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新的挑战确实值得关注。然而，这仍然是一家出色的公司，应该能够应对未来的各种挑战。</p>
</div><p>But even though the stock is 19% off its record, its current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 32.5 is still expensive. In fact, it's well above the trailing-10-year average. Until the P/E gets closer to 25, investors shouldn't buy Apple shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但即使股票距离历史高点下跌了 19%，其当前的市盈率（P/E）为 32.5，仍然显得昂贵。实际上，这一数字远高于过去 10 年的平均水平。在市盈率接近 25 之前，投资者不应购买苹果股票。</p>
</div>

Down 19%, Should You Buy the Dip on Apple Stock? The Answer Might Surprise You.

- 苹果公司股价今年下跌 17%，但过去十年上涨 564%。  
- 目前面临增长放缓、iPhone 依赖及 AI 进展缓慢等挑战。  
- 尽管股价回落，当前市盈率仍高，建议投资者观望。  

苹果股票已经下跌了 19%，现在是否应该趁低买入？答案可能会让你感到意外