<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 2.84%) 在建立其业务时做出了一个决定，即从高端车辆开始。然后，它规划了一条通往更中等价格车辆的道路。这一商业举措取得了成功，现在公司在经历了初期的亏损后，已经实现了可持续盈利。</p>
<p><strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN 0.66%) 目前处于发展阶段的亏损状态，但它有着类似特斯拉的雄心，关键的转折点可能即将到来。</p>
<h2>特斯拉做了什么？</h2>
<p>第一款特斯拉是一款豪华高端跑车。这辆车向世界证明了电动车（EV）是真正的产品，消费者会想要购买。很长一段时间，大型汽车制造商都认为电动车不可行。在特斯拉证明了这一概念后，它推出了能够吸引不仅仅是汽车爱好者的轿车。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUwOTUvMjRfMDZfMjYtYS1saW5lLW9mLXJpdmlhbi10cnVja3MtaW4tYS1wYXJraW5nLWxvdC1fbWYtZGxvYWQtaW1hZ2Utc291cmNlLXJpdmlhbi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUwOTUvMjRfMDZfMjYtYS1saW5lLW9mLXJpdmlhbi10cnVja3MtaW4tYS1wYXJraW5nLWxvdC1fbWYtZGxvYWQtaW1hZ2Utc291cmNlLXJpdmlhbi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Rivian。</p>
<p>那些高端电动车销售良好，突然间，每个主要汽车制造商意识到他们必须制造电动车。如果他们不跟上潮流，就可能被排除在新的汽车市场细分之外。在这一过程中，特斯拉再次转变，推出了具有大众市场吸引力的低成本电动车型。这有助于提高资本密集型业务的销售量并改善盈利能力。</p>
<p>从本质上讲，特斯拉是从富裕客户开始的。但富裕客户的数量是有限的。因此，它向下市场发展，以建立一个可持续盈利的业务。当然，这只是一个非常漫长过程的简化，但这是重要的一般主题。Rivian 正在遵循特斯拉的商业模式。</p>
<h2>从高端开始，然后走向大众市场</h2>
<p>Rivian 目前生产两种类型的卡车，一种是配送车辆，另一种是高端消费者皮卡。配送车辆是一个重要的概念验证，帮助公司开发其技术。它还使 Rivian 能够通过与 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 的合作关系产生一些早期收入。可以将配送卡车视为特斯拉的跑车。</p>
<p>在证明其技术可靠的同时，Rivian 还为消费者市场制造了豪华高端皮卡。这些卡车受到了良好的反响，Rivian 能够逐步提高生产能力，并在此过程中完善其生产流程。事实上，它在 2024 年第四季度和 2025 年第一季度实现了适度的毛利润。</p>
<p>这意味着 Rivian 不再在每辆卡车上亏损，尽管在收益表下方的成本，如研发（R&amp;D）和销售、一般及行政费用（SG&amp;A），仍然使其处于亏损状态。</p>
<p>这就是规模变得重要的地方。Rivian 需要将其成本分摊到更多的车辆销售上，这基本上就是特斯拉所做的。Rivian 的下一个重大车辆发布是 R2，这是一款面向大众市场的低成本卡车。目标是在 2026 年上半年开始生产。凭借约 70 亿美元的现金和与汽车巨头 <strong>大众汽车</strong> 的关键合作关系，Rivian 似乎很有可能启动该工厂。</p>
<p>Rivian 业务的真正考验将在其开始销售 R2 时到来。如果销售强劲，公司将成功借鉴特斯拉的商业模式，并取得类似的成功。而 R2 销售带来的额外销量应该有助于 Rivian 朝着可持续盈利的方向发展，就像特斯拉所实现的那样。</p>
<h2>Rivian 风险高，但执行良好</h2>
<p>Rivian 仍然是一项高风险投资，仅适合更激进的投资者。如果公司执行不力，可能仍会在这个复杂且竞争激烈的汽车行业中未能实现其目标。然而，R2 的推出可能是 Rivian 的重大转折点，使其成为 “下一个特斯拉”。</p>
<p>好的，没有任何公司能够真正成为特斯拉，因为该公司实际上创造了电动车领域。但 Rivian 的 R2 可能使其成为下一个最佳选择。</p>

大众(ADR)

RIVN

大众汽车(ADR)

<p>Rivian Automotive 即将迎来一个重要的转折点，计划推出面向大众市场的 R2 卡车。Rivian 最初专注于高端车辆，包括一款送货卡车和一款消费者皮卡，这些车型获得了积极的市场反响，策略与特斯拉相似。Rivian 目前拥有 70 亿美元的现金，并与大众汽车建立了合作关系，计划在 2026 年初开始 R2 的生产。如果销售成功，Rivian 有望实现可持续盈利，成为电动车市场的强劲竞争者，尽管面临固有风险</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 2.84%) made a decision when it built its business to start with high-end vehicles. And then it charted a path toward more moderately priced vehicles. That business move worked and now the company is sustainably profitable despite years of red ink at the get-go.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 2.84%) 在建立其业务时做出了一个决定，即从高端车辆开始。然后，它规划了一条通往更中等价格车辆的道路。这一商业举措取得了成功，现在公司在经历了初期的亏损后，已经实现了可持续盈利。</p>
</div><p><strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN 0.66%) is currently in the red ink stage of its development, but it has Tesla-like ambitions and a key turning point could be fast approaching.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN 0.66%) 目前处于发展阶段的亏损状态，但它有着类似特斯拉的雄心，关键的转折点可能即将到来。</p>
</div><h2>What did Tesla do?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉做了什么？</h2>
</div><p>The first Tesla was a fancy, high-end sports car. That vehicle proved to the world that electric vehicles (EVs) were a real product that customers would want to buy. For a long time the large automakers shunned EVs as not being viable. After Tesla proved the concept, it brought out sedans that would appeal to more than just car enthusiasts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一款特斯拉是一款豪华高端跑车。这辆车向世界证明了电动车（EV）是真正的产品，消费者会想要购买。很长一段时间，大型汽车制造商都认为电动车不可行。在特斯拉证明了这一概念后，它推出了能够吸引不仅仅是汽车爱好者的轿车。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUwOTUvMjRfMDZfMjYtYS1saW5lLW9mLXJpdmlhbi10cnVja3MtaW4tYS1wYXJraW5nLWxvdC1fbWYtZGxvYWQtaW1hZ2Utc291cmNlLXJpdmlhbi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825095%2F24_06_26-a-line-of-rivian-trucks-in-a-parking-lot-_mf-dload-image-source-rivian.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Rivian.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Rivian。</p>
</div><p>Those higher-end EVs sold well and, suddenly, every major automaker realized that they had to make EVs. If they didn't jump on the bandwagon they could get boxed out of a new segment auto market. As that was going on, Tesla pivoted again, bringing out lower-cost models of its EVs that had mass-market appeal. That helped to boost sales volumes in the capital-intensive business and improve profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那些高端电动车销售良好，突然间，每个主要汽车制造商意识到他们必须制造电动车。如果他们不跟上潮流，就可能被排除在新的汽车市场细分之外。在这一过程中，特斯拉再次转变，推出了具有大众市场吸引力的低成本电动车型。这有助于提高资本密集型业务的销售量并改善盈利能力。</p>
</div><p>Essentially, Tesla started with rich customers. But there are only so many rich customers. And, thus, it moved down market to build a sustainably profitable business. That's a simplification of a very long process, of course, but it is the general theme that's important. Rivian is following the Tesla playbook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从本质上讲，特斯拉是从富裕客户开始的。但富裕客户的数量是有限的。因此，它向下市场发展，以建立一个可持续盈利的业务。当然，这只是一个非常漫长过程的简化，但这是重要的一般主题。Rivian 正在遵循特斯拉的商业模式。</p>
</div><h2>Start high-end, then go mass-market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>从高端开始，然后走向大众市场</h2>
</div><p>Rivian currently makes two kinds of trucks, a delivery vehicle and a high-end consumer pickup truck. The delivery vehicle was an important proof of concept that helped the company develop its technology. It also allowed Rivian to generate some early revenue thanks to a relationship with <strong>Amazon</strong>. Consider the delivery truck similar to Tesla's sports car.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 目前生产两种类型的卡车，一种是配送车辆，另一种是高端消费者皮卡。配送车辆是一个重要的概念验证，帮助公司开发其技术。它还使 Rivian 能够通过与 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 的合作关系产生一些早期收入。可以将配送卡车视为特斯拉的跑车。</p>
</div><p>As it was proving that its technology was reliable, Rivian was also building fancy high-end pickups for the consumer market. The trucks have been well-received, and Rivian has been able to ramp up production and fine tune its production processes along the way. In fact, it was able to turn a modest gross profit in the fourth quarter of 2024 and in the first quarter of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在证明其技术可靠的同时，Rivian 还为消费者市场制造了豪华高端皮卡。这些卡车受到了良好的反响，Rivian 能够逐步提高生产能力，并在此过程中完善其生产流程。事实上，它在 2024 年第四季度和 2025 年第一季度实现了适度的毛利润。</p>
</div><p>This means that Rivian stopped losing money on every truck it sold, though costs further down the earnings statement, like research and development (R&amp;D) and selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&amp;A), still leave it bleeding red ink.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着 Rivian 不再在每辆卡车上亏损，尽管在收益表下方的成本，如研发（R&amp;D）和销售、一般及行政费用（SG&amp;A），仍然使其处于亏损状态。</p>
</div><p>This is where scale becomes important. Rivian needs to spread its costs over more vehicle sales, which is basically what Tesla did. The next big vehicle release for Rivian is the R2, which is a lower-cost truck meant for the mass market. The goal is to start production in the first half of 2026. With around $7 billion of cash on the balance sheet and a key partnership with auto giant <strong>Volkswagen</strong>, it seems highly probable that Rivian gets that factory up and running.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是规模变得重要的地方。Rivian 需要将其成本分摊到更多的车辆销售上，这基本上就是特斯拉所做的。Rivian 的下一个重大车辆发布是 R2，这是一款面向大众市场的低成本卡车。目标是在 2026 年上半年开始生产。凭借约 70 亿美元的现金和与汽车巨头 <strong>大众汽车</strong> 的关键合作关系，Rivian 似乎很有可能启动该工厂。</p>
</div><p>The real test of Rivian's business will come when it starts selling the R2. If sales are robust the company will have successfully taken Tesla's playbook and achieved similar wins. And the added volume from R2 sales should help move Rivian toward sustainable profitability, just like Tesla achieved.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 业务的真正考验将在其开始销售 R2 时到来。如果销售强劲，公司将成功借鉴特斯拉的商业模式，并取得类似的成功。而 R2 销售带来的额外销量应该有助于 Rivian 朝着可持续盈利的方向发展，就像特斯拉所实现的那样。</p>
</div><h2>Rivian is high-risk, but executing well</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Rivian 风险高，但执行良好</h2>
</div><p>Rivian remains a high-risk investment that's only appropriate for more aggressive investors. If the company doesn't execute well it could still fall short of its goals in what is a very complex and competitive auto sector. However, the launch of the R2 could be the big turning point for Rivian that turns it into the &#34;next Tesla.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 仍然是一项高风险投资，仅适合更激进的投资者。如果公司执行不力，可能仍会在这个复杂且竞争激烈的汽车行业中未能实现其目标。然而，R2 的推出可能是 Rivian 的重大转折点，使其成为 “下一个特斯拉”。</p>
</div><p>OK, no company is ever going to be Tesla, given that the company effectively created the EV space. But Rivian's R2 could make it the next best thing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好的，没有任何公司能够真正成为特斯拉，因为该公司实际上创造了电动车领域。但 Rivian 的 R2 可能使其成为下一个最佳选择。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Rivian's New R2 Truck Will Be a "Tesla-Like" Turning Point for the Company

- 特斯拉从高端车型起步，成功转向中低价位，现已实现可持续盈利。  
- Rivian 目前处于亏损阶段，计划推出 R2 低成本车型以吸引大众市场。  
- 若 R2 销售强劲，Rivian 有望实现与特斯拉类似的成功。

预测：Rivian 的新款 R2 卡车将成为公司一个类似特斯拉的转折点