<p>随着财报季的临近，投资者应该审视他们的投资组合，并评估是否还有上涨空间，或者下一个消息是否可能是负面的。这可能适用于 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.46%)，因为投资者对该股票的看法相当悲观，这并非没有理由。</p>
<p>尽管市场其他部分自四月和五月的低点反弹，但苹果的股票相对平稳，截至目前，今年下跌了 15%。我认为这种缺乏参与并不是一个买入机会，而是未来趋势的迹象。因此，在苹果下一个季度财报发布之前，可能是抛售股票的好时机，财报将在 7 月 31 日发布。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ4NDkvcGVyc29uLWluLWEtd2hpdGUtc2hpcnQtd29uZGVyaW5nLWFib3V0LWEtcXVlc3Rpb24uanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ4NDkvcGVyc29uLWluLWEtd2hpdGUtc2hpcnQtd29uZGVyaW5nLWFib3V0LWEtcXVlc3Rpb24uanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>苹果最近未能成为创新者</h2>
<p>苹果无需多做介绍；它是领先的消费科技品牌，全球有数百万人拥有其产品。然而，市场有限，苹果可能已接近其产品线的饱和点。</p>
<p>此外，苹果近年来未能推出任何真正具有颠覆性的功能。就在不久之前，消费者每年都会购买新款 iPhone 以获取所有新升级。现在，只有增量的电池续航和相机升级，几乎没有真正的创新。</p>
<p>在人工智能方面，苹果被其安卓竞争对手甩在了后面，因为苹果智能（Apple Intelligence）作为其人工智能的尝试，并没有带来任何值得注意的成果。</p>
<p>这明显表明该公司依赖于以往的成功，这在苹果的财务数据中显而易见。</p>
<h2>苹果的增长最近非常缓慢</h2>
<p>苹果的收入增长在过去几年表现不佳。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a6f0806dffac17c882abe092de7b71b3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a6f0806dffac17c882abe092de7b71b3.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 营业收入（季度同比增长）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>苹果上个季度 5.1% 的增长看起来比之前的季度有了很大改善，但这并不是一个好的位置。然而，对于像苹果这样的成熟公司，投资者更关心每股收益（EPS）的增长，而不是收入的增长。苹果可以回购股票并提高利润率，以实现比收入增长更快的收益增长，但这样的日子可能也有限。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fc82caf9b8319bb5646013d76a367a7f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fc82caf9b8319bb5646013d76a367a7f.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 每股收益基本（季度同比增长）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>苹果多次交出每股收益增长率低于 10% 的季度业绩，这表明考虑到市场长期平均增长率约为 10%，它可能在长期内表现不佳。尽管苹果持续交出低于平均水平的增长，但其股票的交易价格仍远高于市场。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d585ed021f5e98d0b764b25ed030925f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d585ed021f5e98d0b764b25ed030925f.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>尽管苹果的估值有所下降，但其 29.4 倍的前瞻性收益仍然远高于 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的 23.7 倍前瞻性收益。</p>
<p>这表明市场对苹果股票的溢价过高，而其 2025 财年第三季度的收益公告将在 7 月 31 日发布，可能会成为投资者的另一个警钟。在这一季度，几乎没有什么事情能够推动苹果的销售，考虑到关税可能会压缩其利润率，股票下跌的可能性远大于上涨的可能性。</p>
<p>投资者应该考虑放弃苹果股票。它的表现一直很好，带来了惊人的回报，但现在有许多其他股票的增长更强，看起来更适合投资。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>随着财报季的临近，投资者被建议重新评估他们的投资组合，特别是关于苹果（AAPL），该公司今年已出现 15% 的下跌。苹果在创新方面面临挑战，收入增长缓慢，EPS 增长始终低于 10%。尽管估值略有下降，但苹果的股票与标准普尔 500 指数相比仍然显得昂贵。由于销售增长有限且可能面临利润率压力，投资者可能希望在 7 月 31 日即将发布的财报之前考虑出售他们的股票，因为其他地方存在更好的增长机会</p>

<p>As earnings season approaches, investors should review their portfolios and assess whether there is still upside left or if the next piece of news could be negative. This could apply to <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.46%), as investors have been fairly bearish on the stock for a good reason.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着财报季的临近，投资者应该审视他们的投资组合，并评估是否还有上涨空间，或者下一个消息是否可能是负面的。这可能适用于 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.46%)，因为投资者对该股票的看法相当悲观，这并非没有理由。</p>
</div><p>While the rest of the market has rallied from its lows in April and May, Apple's stock has remained relatively flat, down 15% for the year at the time of this writing. I think this lack of participation isn't a buying opportunity; it's a sign of things to come. As a result, it may be a good idea to unload shares before Apple's next quarterly earnings report on July 31.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管市场其他部分自四月和五月的低点反弹，但苹果的股票相对平稳，截至目前，今年下跌了 15%。我认为这种缺乏参与并不是一个买入机会，而是未来趋势的迹象。因此，在苹果下一个季度财报发布之前，可能是抛售股票的好时机，财报将在 7 月 31 日发布。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ4NDkvcGVyc29uLWluLWEtd2hpdGUtc2hpcnQtd29uZGVyaW5nLWFib3V0LWEtcXVlc3Rpb24uanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824849%2Fperson-in-a-white-shirt-wondering-about-a-question.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Apple has failed to be an innovator lately</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果最近未能成为创新者</h2>
</div><p>Apple needs little introduction; it's the leading consumer technology brand and millions around the globe own its products. However, there's only a limited population, and Apple may have neared the saturation point for its product line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果无需多做介绍；它是领先的消费科技品牌，全球有数百万人拥有其产品。然而，市场有限，苹果可能已接近其产品线的饱和点。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Apple has failed to release any real game-changing features in recent years. It wasn't all that long ago when consumers would purchase a new iPhone each year for all of the new upgrades. Now, it's only incremental battery life and camera upgrades, with little true innovation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，苹果近年来未能推出任何真正具有颠覆性的功能。就在不久之前，消费者每年都会购买新款 iPhone 以获取所有新升级。现在，只有增量的电池续航和相机升级，几乎没有真正的创新。</p>
</div><p>On the AI front, Apple has been left behind by its Android peers, as Apple Intelligence, its take on AI, hasn't delivered anything noteworthy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在人工智能方面，苹果被其安卓竞争对手甩在了后面，因为苹果智能（Apple Intelligence）作为其人工智能的尝试，并没有带来任何值得注意的成果。</p>
</div><p>This is a telltale sign of a company that's relying on its prior success, and it's evident in Apple's financials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这明显表明该公司依赖于以往的成功，这在苹果的财务数据中显而易见。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's growth has been very slow recently</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果的增长最近非常缓慢</h2>
</div><p>Apple's revenue growth has been poor over the past few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的收入增长在过去几年表现不佳。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a6f0806dffac17c882abe092de7b71b3.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a6f0806dffac17c882abe092de7b71b3.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 营业收入（季度同比增长）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>With Apple's 5.1% increase last quarter looking like a huge improvement from prior quarters, that's not a great position to be in. However, for a mature company like Apple, investors care more about earnings per share (EPS) growth than revenue growth. Apple can repurchase shares and improve margins to squeeze out faster earnings growth than revenue growth, but those days may be limited as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果上个季度 5.1% 的增长看起来比之前的季度有了很大改善，但这并不是一个好的位置。然而，对于像苹果这样的成熟公司，投资者更关心每股收益（EPS）的增长，而不是收入的增长。苹果可以回购股票并提高利润率，以实现比收入增长更快的收益增长，但这样的日子可能也有限。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fc82caf9b8319bb5646013d76a367a7f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fc82caf9b8319bb5646013d76a367a7f.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL EPS Basic (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 每股收益基本（季度同比增长）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Apple has repeatedly delivered quarters with less than a 10% EPS growth rate, which suggests it may underperform the market over the long term, given the market's long-term average growth rate of around 10%. Despite Apple continuously delivering slower-than-average growth, its stock trades at a hefty premium to the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果多次交出每股收益增长率低于 10% 的季度业绩，这表明考虑到市场长期平均增长率约为 10%，它可能在长期内表现不佳。尽管苹果持续交出低于平均水平的增长，但其股票的交易价格仍远高于市场。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d585ed021f5e98d0b764b25ed030925f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d585ed021f5e98d0b764b25ed030925f.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Although Apple's valuation has come down, its 29.4 times forward earnings is still far more expensive than the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s 23.7 times forward earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管苹果的估值有所下降，但其 29.4 倍的前瞻性收益仍然远高于 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的 23.7 倍前瞻性收益。</p>
</div><p>This suggests that the market is overpaying for Apple's stock, and its third-quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings announcement on July 31 could serve as another wake-up call for investors. There wasn't much that happened in the quarter that could have boosted Apple's sales, and with tariffs likely squeezing its margins, the odds of the stock moving lower are far more likely than it moving higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这表明市场对苹果股票的溢价过高，而其 2025 财年第三季度的收益公告将在 7 月 31 日发布，可能会成为投资者的另一个警钟。在这一季度，几乎没有什么事情能够推动苹果的销售，考虑到关税可能会压缩其利润率，股票下跌的可能性远大于上涨的可能性。</p>
</div><p>Investors should consider moving on from Apple stock. It has been on a great run and produced phenomenal returns, but there are many other stocks with stronger growth that look like better places to be invested in right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者应该考虑放弃苹果股票。它的表现一直很好，带来了惊人的回报，但现在有许多其他股票的增长更强，看起来更适合投资。</p>
</div>

Should You Sell Apple's Stock Before July 31?

- 投资者应评估投资组合，考虑在苹果财报前是否出售股票。  
- 苹果股价今年下跌 15%，缺乏创新和增长，面临市场压力。  
- 苹果的估值仍高于市场，未来财报可能引发投资者警觉。  

你是否应该在 7 月 31 日之前出售苹果的股票？