<p>沃伦·巴菲特作为投资者的巨大成功并不是通过试图把握市场时机，也不是通过预测哪些股票在短期内会上涨或下跌而获得的。他在多次场合指出，这些都是不可能的任务。相反，巴菲特和他的团队在 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A 0.29%)(BRK.B 0.10%) 所做的主要工作是试图判断某个企业在特定时刻的价值是否高于或低于其市场价格。</p>
<p>这一策略带来了惊人的成果。自 1965 年巴菲特接管当时处于困境的纺织企业以来，伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票以约 20% 的复合年增长率增长。为了更好地理解这一点，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC -0.01%) 在此期间的复合年回报率仅为 10.4%。</p>
<p>尽管这听起来令人印象深刻，但当复利有数十年的时间来发挥其魔力时，这种差异变得难以想象。从 1965 年到 2024 年，投资于标准普尔 500 指数（再投资股息）将使其价值增长约 390 倍。而同样的投资在伯克希尔的价值则增长了超过 55,000 倍。</p>
<p>简而言之，购买那些基本上比市场认为的更有价值的股票是有效的。但最近，巴菲特得出结论，伯克希尔投资组合中的许多股票可能并不值市场所支付的价格。此外，他发现潜在的新股票投资机会非常有限。因此，伯克希尔哈撒韦已经连续 10 个季度成为股票的净卖方。在此期间，巴菲特和他的团队卖出的股票比买入的多出 1740 亿美元。</p>
<p>最近，伯克希尔哈撒韦削减的两个最大持仓是 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.46%) 和 <strong>美国银行</strong>(BAC 0.64%)。该集团分别将其在这两家公司的股份削减了 67% 和 39%。利用这些销售及其他交易的部分收益，巴菲特正在投资一种当前收益率约为 4.3% 的高收益投资。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ5ODYvYnVmZmV0dDE3LXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ5ODYvYnVmZmV0dDE3LXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>削减一些最大的持仓</h2>
<p>在某个时刻，苹果股票占伯克希尔股票投资组合价值的一半以上。巴菲特在 2016 年首次购买了这家 iPhone 制造商的股票，当时其股价约为 25 美元（经过拆股调整）。在接下来的几年里，他在该股票上建立了巨额持仓，到 2018 年底时投入了约 360 亿美元。</p>
<p>当巴菲特首次投资苹果时，其市盈率约为 10。这对于当时正经历净收入下滑的公司来说是一个令人难以置信的价值。巴菲特看到了 iPhone 和苹果生态系统的价值，注意到人们对智能手机的依赖程度。他预计，得益于苹果的品牌实力、在智能手机市场的领先地位以及强劲的自由现金流，业务将会好转。果然，在接下来的八年里，股票飙升。</p>
<p>但到 2023 年底，其市盈率已攀升至超过 30 倍，这对于一家每年以个位数百分比增长每股收益的公司来说是一个极高的倍数。这足以说服巴菲特开始兑现部分利润。从 2023 年 10 月到 2024 年 9 月，他卖出了伯克希尔在这家科技巨头的超过三分之二的股份。</p>
<p>苹果仍然是伯克希尔投资组合中最大的持仓，占其价值的近 22%。但考虑到其前瞻性市盈率为 29，巴菲特不太可能在近期内再次增加该持仓，除非出现重大进展。</p>
<p>美国银行是伯克希尔去年夏天的第二大持仓。但在过去三个季度中，伯克希尔已将其在该公司的股份削减了 39%。根据伯克希尔最近向证券交易委员会提交的 13F 文件，美国银行仍是伯克希尔的第三大持仓。但巴菲特可能在第二季度继续出售该股票。</p>
<p>伯克希尔在美国银行的最初持仓来自于 2011 年巴菲特通过一项特殊交易获得的优先股所附带的股票认购权。当时美国银行正面临困境。这些优先股支付了不错的股息，但在 2017 年，持有普通股变得更有利可图。因此，巴菲特行使了他的认购权，将优先股转换为普通股，然后在 2020 年之前逐步增加该持仓。</p>
<p>再次，估值似乎是巴菲特决定兑现部分美国银行投资利润的最大原因。该股票价格的上涨是由于市场对利率将下降的预期。美国银行在其资产负债表上持有长期债务，在美联储加息时面临困难，但当利率下降时，这将使其相对于同行处于良好位置。但随着过去几年股票价格的上涨，其有形账面价值的市价比率也随之上升。过去一年中，该比率大部分时间超过 1.6。目前交易接近 1.7，远高于其 10 年平均值 1.49。</p>
<h2>每年为伯克希尔带来 135 亿美元的投资</h2>
<p>这些巨额股票销售为伯克希尔哈撒韦的资金库注入了大量现金。如前所述，过去两年半中，巴菲特的股票销售超过了购买 1740 亿美元。虽然其中一大部分现金用于支付伯克希尔去年的巨额税单，但几乎所有剩余的资金都用于一项单一的投资持仓。</p>
<p>截至第一季度末，伯克希尔在其资产负债表上持有 3141 亿美元的美国国债。这些债券的平均收益率约为 4.3%，公司预计到 2025 年仅从政府债券持有的利息中就能收获 135 亿美元。如果巴菲特在全年内购买更多国债，这一数字可能会更高。</p>
<p>仅仅通过支持美国政府而获得 135 亿美元的收益，这笔交易并不差。伯克希尔在 2024 年的总运营收入为 475 亿美元。但巴菲特明确表示，他更愿意将伯克希尔不断增长的现金储备（国债被视为现金等价物）投资于股票，而不是债券。</p>
<p>巴菲特在 2024 年致股东的信中写道：“伯克希尔的股东可以放心，我们将永远将其大部分资金投入股票。”</p>
<p>巴菲特目前面临的挑战是，市场上大多数股票从估值角度来看都很昂贵。对于他能够购买足够数量以真正影响像伯克希尔哈撒韦这样巨头的股票尤其如此。伯克希尔可投入的资金接近 3500 亿美元，但可投资的股票范围仅限于那些市值较大、能够吸纳数十亿美元资本的公司。不幸的是，如今大盘股的交易估值要高得多。以此趋势为例，标准普尔 500 指数的前瞻市盈率已攀升至 22 以上，达到了自互联网泡沫以来的最高水平，仅在 2020 年和 2021 年的几个季度（在 2022 年熊市之前）有所例外。</p>
<p>如果巴菲特是一位只有几百万美元投资的小型投资者，他肯定能在市场上找到很好的机会。小型和中型股指数的预期前瞻市盈率约为 16 倍。即使是等权重的标准普尔 500 指数，其市盈率也仅为 17.6 倍，反映出该指数中较小成分股的交易价值比其最大成分股更具吸引力。</p>
<p>花时间研究市场上那些不那么知名的个别公司，投资者可以找到一些价值超过其当前市场价值的优秀公司。如果你持续购买这些股票，长期来看可以获得优异的回报。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

苹果

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>沃伦·巴菲特抛售苹果和美国银行，转而投资这一乏味的投资，收益率为 4.3%</p>

<p>Warren Buffett's tremendous success as an investor didn't come from trying to time the market, nor from predicting which stocks would go up or down in the near term. Those are impossible tasks, he has noted on multiple occasions. Instead, the primary thing that Buffett and his team at <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A 0.29%)(BRK.B 0.10%) do is try to determine whether a business, at that particular moment, is worth more or less than its market price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦·巴菲特作为投资者的巨大成功并不是通过试图把握市场时机，也不是通过预测哪些股票在短期内会上涨或下跌而获得的。他在多次场合指出，这些都是不可能的任务。相反，巴菲特和他的团队在 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A 0.29%)(BRK.B 0.10%) 所做的主要工作是试图判断某个企业在特定时刻的价值是否高于或低于其市场价格。</p>
</div><p>That strategy has led to some phenomenal results. Berkshire Hathaway stock has grown at a compound annual rate of about 20% since 1965, when Buffett took control of what was then a failing textile business. To put that in perspective, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -0.01%) has produced compound annual returns of just 10.4% over that time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一策略带来了惊人的成果。自 1965 年巴菲特接管当时处于困境的纺织企业以来，伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票以约 20% 的复合年增长率增长。为了更好地理解这一点，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC -0.01%) 在此期间的复合年回报率仅为 10.4%。</p>
</div><p>As impressive as that may sound, it can be hard to grasp just how vast that difference becomes when compounding has decades to work its magic. From 1965 through 2024, an investment in the S&amp;P 500 (with dividends reinvested) would have multiplied in value by about 390 times. The same investment in Berkshire would have risen by more than 55,000 times.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这听起来令人印象深刻，但当复利有数十年的时间来发挥其魔力时，这种差异变得难以想象。从 1965 年到 2024 年，投资于标准普尔 500 指数（再投资股息）将使其价值增长约 390 倍。而同样的投资在伯克希尔的价值则增长了超过 55,000 倍。</p>
</div><p>In short, buying stocks that are fundamentally worth more than the market thinks they are works. But in recent times, Buffett has concluded that many of the equities in Berkshire's portfolio might not be worth as much as the market is paying for them. Further, he has found the pickings quite slim in terms of potential new equity holdings to buy. As a result, Berkshire Hathaway has been a net seller of stocks for 10 consecutive quarters. In that period, Buffett and his team have sold $174 billion more in stocks than they bought.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简而言之，购买那些基本上比市场认为的更有价值的股票是有效的。但最近，巴菲特得出结论，伯克希尔投资组合中的许多股票可能并不值市场所支付的价格。此外，他发现潜在的新股票投资机会非常有限。因此，伯克希尔哈撒韦已经连续 10 个季度成为股票的净卖方。在此期间，巴菲特和他的团队卖出的股票比买入的多出 1740 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Two of the biggest positions recently getting trimmed at Berkshire Hathaway were <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.46%) and <strong>Bank of America</strong>(BAC 0.64%). The conglomerate cut its stakes in them by 67% and 39%, respectively. With some of the proceeds from those sales and others, Buffett has been piling into a high-yield investment that's paying around 4.3% as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，伯克希尔哈撒韦削减的两个最大持仓是 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.46%) 和 <strong>美国银行</strong>(BAC 0.64%)。该集团分别将其在这两家公司的股份削减了 67% 和 39%。利用这些销售及其他交易的部分收益，巴菲特正在投资一种当前收益率约为 4.3% 的高收益投资。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ5ODYvYnVmZmV0dDE3LXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824986%2Fbuffett17-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Cutting some of his biggest holdings</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>削减一些最大的持仓</h2>
</div><p>At one point, Apple stock accounted for more than half the value of Berkshire's equity portfolio. Buffett first purchased shares of the iPhone maker in 2016 when it traded for around $25 on a split-adjusted basis. Over the next few years, he built a massive stake in the stock, pouring an estimated $36 billion into it by late 2018.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在某个时刻，苹果股票占伯克希尔股票投资组合价值的一半以上。巴菲特在 2016 年首次购买了这家 iPhone 制造商的股票，当时其股价约为 25 美元（经过拆股调整）。在接下来的几年里，他在该股票上建立了巨额持仓，到 2018 年底时投入了约 360 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>When Buffett made his initial investment in Apple, it was trading at a P/E multiple of around 10. That was an incredible value for the stock, even as the company was experiencing a downturn in net income. Buffett saw the value of the iPhone and the Apple ecosystem, noticing how attached people were to their smartphones. He expected the business to turn around, thanks to Apple's brand strength, its leading position in smartphones, and its strong free cash flow. Sure enough, the stock soared over the next eight years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当巴菲特首次投资苹果时，其市盈率约为 10。这对于当时正经历净收入下滑的公司来说是一个令人难以置信的价值。巴菲特看到了 iPhone 和苹果生态系统的价值，注意到人们对智能手机的依赖程度。他预计，得益于苹果的品牌实力、在智能手机市场的领先地位以及强劲的自由现金流，业务将会好转。果然，在接下来的八年里，股票飙升。</p>
</div><p>But by late 2023, it had climbed to above 30 times earnings, which is an extremely high multiple for a company growing its earnings per share at a single-digit percentage annual rate. That was enough to convince Buffett to start taking some cash off the table. From October 2023 through September 2024, he sold more than two-thirds of Berkshire's stake in the tech giant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但到 2023 年底，其市盈率已攀升至超过 30 倍，这对于一家每年以个位数百分比增长每股收益的公司来说是一个极高的倍数。这足以说服巴菲特开始兑现部分利润。从 2023 年 10 月到 2024 年 9 月，他卖出了伯克希尔在这家科技巨头的超过三分之二的股份。</p>
</div><p>Apple remains the largest holding in Berkshire's portfolio, accounting for nearly 22% of its value. But given its forward P/E of 29, it's unlikely that Buffett plans to start adding to the position again in the near future, absent any significant developments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果仍然是伯克希尔投资组合中最大的持仓，占其价值的近 22%。但考虑到其前瞻性市盈率为 29，巴菲特不太可能在近期内再次增加该持仓，除非出现重大进展。</p>
</div><p>Bank of America was Berkshire's second-largest holding as of last summer. But over the last three quarters, Berkshire has trimmed its stake in the company by 39%. Bank of America remains Berkshire's third-largest holding based on the company's most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. But Buffett may have continued selling the stock in the second quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国银行是伯克希尔去年夏天的第二大持仓。但在过去三个季度中，伯克希尔已将其在该公司的股份削减了 39%。根据伯克希尔最近向证券交易委员会提交的 13F 文件，美国银行仍是伯克希尔的第三大持仓。但巴菲特可能在第二季度继续出售该股票。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire's original stake in Bank of America came from stock warrants received in connection with preferred shares Buffett picked up in 2011 through a special deal he made while Bank of America was struggling. Those preferred shares paid nice dividends, but in 2017, it became more lucrative to own the common stock instead. So, Buffett exercised his warrants and converted the preferred shares into common stock, then proceeded to gradually add to the position through 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔在美国银行的最初持仓来自于 2011 年巴菲特通过一项特殊交易获得的优先股所附带的股票认购权。当时美国银行正面临困境。这些优先股支付了不错的股息，但在 2017 年，持有普通股变得更有利可图。因此，巴菲特行使了他的认购权，将优先股转换为普通股，然后在 2020 年之前逐步增加该持仓。</p>
</div><p>Again, valuation seems to be the biggest reason for Buffett's decision to book some profits on his Bank of America investment. The stock's run-up in price has been fueled by expectations that interest rates will decline. Bank of America has longer-dated debt on its balance sheet that struggled when the Federal Reserve was hiking interest rates, but that will leave it well positioned relative to its peers when interest rates decline. But as the stock price climbed over the past couple of years, its price to tangible book value did too. That ratio has exceeded 1.6 for much of the past year. It currently trades closer to 1.7, well above its 10-year average of 1.49.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再次，估值似乎是巴菲特决定兑现部分美国银行投资利润的最大原因。该股票价格的上涨是由于市场对利率将下降的预期。美国银行在其资产负债表上持有长期债务，在美联储加息时面临困难，但当利率下降时，这将使其相对于同行处于良好位置。但随着过去几年股票价格的上涨，其有形账面价值的市价比率也随之上升。过去一年中，该比率大部分时间超过 1.6。目前交易接近 1.7，远高于其 10 年平均值 1.49。</p>
</div><h2>The investment paying Berkshire $13.5 billion per year</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>每年为伯克希尔带来 135 亿美元的投资</h2>
</div><p>Those massive stock sales put a lot of cash in Berkshire Hathaway's coffers. As mentioned, Buffett's stock sales outpaced his purchases by $174 billion over the past two and a half years. While a sizeable chunk of that cash went toward paying Berkshire's massive tax bill from last year, almost all of the rest went toward a single investment holding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些巨额股票销售为伯克希尔哈撒韦的资金库注入了大量现金。如前所述，过去两年半中，巴菲特的股票销售超过了购买 1740 亿美元。虽然其中一大部分现金用于支付伯克希尔去年的巨额税单，但几乎所有剩余的资金都用于一项单一的投资持仓。</p>
</div><p>As of the end of the first quarter, Berkshire held $314.1 billion in U.S. Treasury bills on its balance sheet. With those bonds delivering an average yield of around 4.3%, the company is in line to collect $13.5 billion in 2025 just from interest on its government bond holdings. That number could climb higher if Buffett buys more T-bills throughout the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至第一季度末，伯克希尔在其资产负债表上持有 3141 亿美元的美国国债。这些债券的平均收益率约为 4.3%，公司预计到 2025 年仅从政府债券持有的利息中就能收获 135 亿美元。如果巴菲特在全年内购买更多国债，这一数字可能会更高。</p>
</div><p>A $13.5 billion payout for doing nothing but supporting the U.S. government isn't a bad deal. Berkshire's total income from operations in 2024 was $47.5 billion. But Buffett has made it clear that he would rather invest Berkshire's growing pile of cash (Treasury bills are considered a cash equivalent) in equities instead of bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仅仅通过支持美国政府而获得 135 亿美元的收益，这笔交易并不差。伯克希尔在 2024 年的总运营收入为 475 亿美元。但巴菲特明确表示，他更愿意将伯克希尔不断增长的现金储备（国债被视为现金等价物）投资于股票，而不是债券。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Berkshire shareholders can rest assured that we will forever deploy a substantial majority of their money in equities,&#34; Buffett wrote in his 2024 letter to shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特在 2024 年致股东的信中写道：“伯克希尔的股东可以放心，我们将永远将其大部分资金投入股票。”</p>
</div><p>The challenge Buffett currently faces is that most stocks on the market are expensive from a valuation standpoint. That's especially true for stocks that he could buy in quantities large enough that they could actually move the needle for a giant like Berkshire Hathaway. With nearly $350 billion to deploy, Berkshire's universe of investable stocks is limited to those with large market caps that can absorb billions of dollars of capital. Unfortunately, large-cap stocks trade at much higher valuations these days. Illustrating that trend, the S&amp;P 500's forward P/E ratio has climbed above 22 to one of its highest levels since the dot-com bubble, save for a few quarters in 2020 and 2021 (ahead of the 2022 bear market).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特目前面临的挑战是，市场上大多数股票从估值角度来看都很昂贵。对于他能够购买足够数量以真正影响像伯克希尔哈撒韦这样巨头的股票尤其如此。伯克希尔可投入的资金接近 3500 亿美元，但可投资的股票范围仅限于那些市值较大、能够吸纳数十亿美元资本的公司。不幸的是，如今大盘股的交易估值要高得多。以此趋势为例，标准普尔 500 指数的前瞻市盈率已攀升至 22 以上，达到了自互联网泡沫以来的最高水平，仅在 2020 年和 2021 年的几个季度（在 2022 年熊市之前）有所例外。</p>
</div><p>If Buffett were a smaller investor with just a few million dollars to invest, he'd surely be able to find great opportunities in the market. The small- and mid-cap indices trade for around 16 times expected forward earnings. Even the equal-weight S&amp;P 500 index trades at just 17.6 times earnings, reflecting the fact that smaller members of the index are trading at more attractive values than its largest components.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果巴菲特是一位只有几百万美元投资的小型投资者，他肯定能在市场上找到很好的机会。小型和中型股指数的预期前瞻市盈率约为 16 倍。即使是等权重的标准普尔 500 指数，其市盈率也仅为 17.6 倍，反映出该指数中较小成分股的交易价值比其最大成分股更具吸引力。</p>
</div><p>Investors who take the time to research individual companies outside of the largest and most well-known names in the market can find some great companies worth more than their current market values. And if you consistently buy those stocks, you can generate excellent returns over the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>花时间研究市场上那些不那么知名的个别公司，投资者可以找到一些价值超过其当前市场价值的优秀公司。如果你持续购买这些股票，长期来看可以获得优异的回报。</p>
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Warren Buffett Sold Apple and Bank of America in Favor of This Boring Investment Offering a 4.3% Yield

- 巴菲特的成功源于评估企业价值，而非市场时机。  
- 伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票年均增长约 20%，远超标普 500 的 10.4%。  
- 近期，伯克希尔已连续 10 个季度净卖出股票，出售额达 1740 亿美元。

沃伦·巴菲特出售了苹果和美国银行的股票，转而选择了一个提供 4.3% 收益率的乏味投资