<p>尽管整体市场表现良好，截至周四市场收盘，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 上涨了 7%，但电动车制造商 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.13%) 的股价却走向了相反的方向，下降了约 21%。</p>
<p>该公司在最近几个季度面临了许多困难，围绕其业务和首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的负面报道层出不穷，这无疑对股价造成了压力。如果情况不尽快改善，特斯拉可能会面临近年来最糟糕的表现。与 2022 年市场动荡不同，这次是在_有利_的市场条件下表现不佳。</p>
<p>这是否意味着特斯拉将开始一个令人担忧的趋势，还是现在是投资这只挣扎中的汽车股票的好时机？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ3MTcvZnJ1c3RyYXRlZC1wZXJzb24tc2l0dGluZy1uZXh0LXRvLWEtbGFwdG9wLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ3MTcvZnJ1c3RyYXRlZC1wZXJzb24tc2l0dGluZy1uZXh0LXRvLWEtbGFwdG9wLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>特斯拉正面临异常糟糕的一年</h2>
<p>特斯拉通常是一个不错的投资。虽然它并不总是优于市场，但在过去十年中，这只汽车股票的回报率约为 1700%，而同期标准普尔 500 指数的涨幅约为 200%。在这段时间内，特斯拉的好年份远远超过了坏年份。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>年份</th>
<th>标准普尔 500 指数</th>
<th>特斯拉股票</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>23.3%</td>
<td>62.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>24.2%</td>
<td>101.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>(19.4%)</td>
<td>(65%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>26.9%</td>
<td>49.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>16.3%</td>
<td>743.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2019</td>
<td>28.9%</td>
<td>25.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2018</td>
<td>(6.2%)</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2017</td>
<td>19.4%</td>
<td>45.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2016</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
<td>(11%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td>(0.7%)</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>来源：YCharts。表格由作者制作。</p>
<p>然而，值得注意的是，在这段时间内，只有一次股价在单一年份内下跌超过 20%——那是在 2022 年。由于利率上升和通货膨胀成为重大问题，这导致特斯拉股票表现惨淡。</p>
<p>今年的损失可能没有那么严重，但如果没有显著的恢复，股价可能会在 10 年内第二次出现超过 20% 的下跌。</p>
<h2>特斯拉今年能否扭转局面？</h2>
<p>由于首席执行官埃隆·马斯克领导唐纳德·特朗普的政府效率部门倡议以及政府支出的削减，今年特斯拉面临了很多负面报道。虽然马斯克已经退出了这一角色，许多投资者认为这对特斯拉的业务是一个积极的发展，但这并不足以成为扭转股价下跌的催化剂。</p>
<p>公司的季度利润是多年来最低的，不仅由于经济环境严峻导致可支配支出受到压力，竞争的加剧也在挤压特斯拉的毛利率。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/62af5a492f629b37b95d52e39ba0adec.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/62af5a492f629b37b95d52e39ba0adec.png"/></p>
<p>特斯拉净收入（季度）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>为了让特斯拉的股票扭转局面，企业需要在盈利能力上有所改善，这可能并不容易。该股票的市盈率约为 180 倍，市值仍然相当高，约为 1 万亿美元。</p>
<h2>现在应该投资特斯拉吗？</h2>
<p>特斯拉历来是一个不错的成长投资，但在目前如此高的市值下，产生强劲收益将不容易。在如此高的价格下，预期也很高，而特斯拉显然没有产生足够的结果来证明其高昂的溢价。今年前三个月，该公司的汽车收入同比下降了 20%。</p>
<p>尽管它是领先的电动车公司，但其高估值意味着许多未来的增长已经被市场定价。特斯拉在过去 10 年的业绩可能看起来令人印象深刻，但这并不意味着它在未来能够继续为投资者带来强劲的回报。</p>
<p>我不期待该股在今年恢复，我会等到它能够证明自己能在增长业务的同时也能提高盈利能力时再考虑购买特斯拉的股票。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉的股票今年下跌了约 21%，与标准普尔 500 指数上涨 7% 形成对比。该公司面临挑战，包括负面新闻和季度利润下降，这引发了对十年来可能出现第二年超过 20% 亏损的担忧。尽管其历史增长显著，但高市场预期和竞争压力使得复苏变得困难。分析师建议在特斯拉展示出改善的财务表现之前，暂时不要投资</p>

<p>Although it has been a good year overall for the markets, with the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> up 7% as of Thursday's market close, shares of electric vehicle maker <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 3.13%) have been going in the opposite direction and are down about 21%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管整体市场表现良好，截至周四市场收盘，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 上涨了 7%，但电动车制造商 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.13%) 的股价却走向了相反的方向，下降了约 21%。</p>
</div><p>The company has been facing a lot of adversity in recent quarters and there's been plenty of negative press surrounding the business and its CEO, Elon Musk, which has undoubtedly weighed on the stock. If things don't improve soon, Tesla could be on track for one of its worst performances in recent years. And unlike in 2022, when the markets were in a tailspin, this time, it's doing badly amid <em>favorable</em> market conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司在最近几个季度面临了许多困难，围绕其业务和首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的负面报道层出不穷，这无疑对股价造成了压力。如果情况不尽快改善，特斯拉可能会面临近年来最糟糕的表现。与 2022 年市场动荡不同，这次是在_有利_的市场条件下表现不佳。</p>
</div><p>Could this be the start of a troubling trend for Tesla, or can now be a good time to take a chance on this struggling auto stock?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是否意味着特斯拉将开始一个令人担忧的趋势，还是现在是投资这只挣扎中的汽车股票的好时机？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ3MTcvZnJ1c3RyYXRlZC1wZXJzb24tc2l0dGluZy1uZXh0LXRvLWEtbGFwdG9wLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824717%2Ffrustrated-person-sitting-next-to-a-laptop.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla is on track for an unusually bad year</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉正面临异常糟糕的一年</h2>
</div><p>Tesla has normally been a good investment. While it hasn't always outperformed the market, the automotive stock has generated returns of around 1,700% over the past decade, while the S&amp;P is up around 200% over that time frame. Tesla's good years have more than outweighed the bad ones during that stretch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉通常是一个不错的投资。虽然它并不总是优于市场，但在过去十年中，这只汽车股票的回报率约为 1700%，而同期标准普尔 500 指数的涨幅约为 200%。在这段时间内，特斯拉的好年份远远超过了坏年份。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Year</th>
<th>S&amp;P 500</th>
<th>Tesla Stock</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>23.3%</td>
<td>62.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>24.2%</td>
<td>101.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>(19.4%)</td>
<td>(65%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>26.9%</td>
<td>49.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>16.3%</td>
<td>743.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2019</td>
<td>28.9%</td>
<td>25.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2018</td>
<td>(6.2%)</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2017</td>
<td>19.4%</td>
<td>45.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2016</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
<td>(11%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td>(0.7%)</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>年份</th>
<th>标准普尔 500 指数</th>
<th>特斯拉股票</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>23.3%</td>
<td>62.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>24.2%</td>
<td>101.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>(19.4%)</td>
<td>(65%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>26.9%</td>
<td>49.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>16.3%</td>
<td>743.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2019</td>
<td>28.9%</td>
<td>25.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2018</td>
<td>(6.2%)</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2017</td>
<td>19.4%</td>
<td>45.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2016</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
<td>(11%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td>(0.7%)</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Source: YCharts. Table by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：YCharts。表格由作者制作。</p>
</div><p>What's notable, however, is that only once during that stretch has the stock been down more than 20% in a single year -- that was back in 2022. As interest rates were on the rise and inflation was a big concern, that led to a disastrous performance for Tesla stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，值得注意的是，在这段时间内，只有一次股价在单一年份内下跌超过 20%——那是在 2022 年。由于利率上升和通货膨胀成为重大问题，这导致特斯拉股票表现惨淡。</p>
</div><p>This year's losses may not be nearly as deep, but without a significant recovery, the stock may be on track for a decline of more than 20% for just the second time in 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年的损失可能没有那么严重，但如果没有显著的恢复，股价可能会在 10 年内第二次出现超过 20% 的下跌。</p>
</div><h2>Can Tesla turn things around this year?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉今年能否扭转局面？</h2>
</div><p>There's been a lot of bad press involving Tesla this year due to its CEO -- Elon Musk -- leading Donald Trump's Department of Government Efficiency initiative and its cutbacks in government spending. While Musk has stepped away from that role, which many investors see as a positive development for Tesla's business, that hasn't been enough of a catalyst to undo the stock's losses this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于首席执行官埃隆·马斯克领导唐纳德·特朗普的政府效率部门倡议以及政府支出的削减，今年特斯拉面临了很多负面报道。虽然马斯克已经退出了这一角色，许多投资者认为这对特斯拉的业务是一个积极的发展，但这并不足以成为扭转股价下跌的催化剂。</p>
</div><p>The company's quarterly profits are the lowest they've been in years, as not only has discretionary spending come under pressure due to challenging economic conditions, but a rise in competition is also squeezing Tesla's gross margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的季度利润是多年来最低的，不仅由于经济环境严峻导致可支配支出受到压力，竞争的加剧也在挤压特斯拉的毛利率。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/62af5a492f629b37b95d52e39ba0adec.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/62af5a492f629b37b95d52e39ba0adec.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA Net Income (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉净收入（季度）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>For Tesla's stock to turn things around, the business needs to show improvement on its bottom line, which may not be easy. The stock trades at around 180 times its trailing earnings, with its market cap still fairly high at around $1 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了让特斯拉的股票扭转局面，企业需要在盈利能力上有所改善，这可能并不容易。该股票的市盈率约为 180 倍，市值仍然相当高，约为 1 万亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>Should you invest in Tesla right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在应该投资特斯拉吗？</h2>
</div><p>Tesla has historically been a good growth investment, but it's not going to be easy for it to generate strong gains with its market cap as high as it is right now. At such a high price tag, expectations are also high, and Tesla simply hasn't been producing the results necessary to justify its steep premium. In the first three months of this year, the company's automotive revenue was down 20% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉历来是一个不错的成长投资，但在目前如此高的市值下，产生强劲收益将不容易。在如此高的价格下，预期也很高，而特斯拉显然没有产生足够的结果来证明其高昂的溢价。今年前三个月，该公司的汽车收入同比下降了 20%。</p>
</div><p>Although it's a leading electric vehicle company, its high valuation means a lot of future growth is already priced in. Tesla's track record may look impressive over the past 10 years, but that doesn't mean it's likely to continue generating strong returns for investors in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管它是领先的电动车公司，但其高估值意味着许多未来的增长已经被市场定价。特斯拉在过去 10 年的业绩可能看起来令人印象深刻，但这并不意味着它在未来能够继续为投资者带来强劲的回报。</p>
</div><p>I don't expect the stock to recover this year, and I'd hold off on buying shares of Tesla until it can show that it can get back to growing its business while also growing its bottom line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不期待该股在今年恢复，我会等到它能够证明自己能在增长业务的同时也能提高盈利能力时再考虑购买特斯拉的股票。</p>
</div>

Tesla Stock Could Be on Track to Do This for Only the Second Time in 10 Years. (Hint: It's Not a Good Thing)

- 特斯拉股价下跌约 21%，与整体市场表现相反。  
- 公司面临负面新闻和竞争压力，季度利润降至多年低点。  
- 高估值使得未来增长预期高，短期内难以恢复。  

特斯拉股票可能在 10 年内第二次面临这样的情况。（提示：这并不是一件好事）