<p>在 <strong>微软</strong>（MSFT -0.33%）于 7 月 30 日发布季度财报之前，许多投资者可能正在密切关注这家软件巨头的股票。毕竟，最近该股经历了令人难以置信的上涨。从 4 月 21 日到 7 月 17 日，股价上涨了 42%。不仅该股在经历了一次与关税相关的市场抛售后，迅速恢复了 V 型反弹，而且还达到了新的历史高点。问题是？目前的估值显得相当高昂。</p>
<p>值得一提的是，该公司正在经历令人印象深刻的业务势头。收入和利润均以两位数的速度增长，公司似乎在人工智能（AI）方面处于有利位置——无论是对其 AI 相关服务的需求增加，还是 AI 提升员工生产力带来的成本效率。</p>
<p>但最大的问题是，股价是否上涨得太快，太高。显然，该公司具有强大的势头。但如此高的估值是否已经将该股的乐观前景考虑在内？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3MDYvbXNmdC1zdG9jay5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="485" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3MDYvbXNmdC1zdG9jay5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>加速增长</h2>
<p>微软在 4 月底发布的财政第三季度业绩（其最近报告的季度）展示了公司表现良好的原因——以及投资者为何推高股价。收入同比增长 13%——较财政第二季度的 12% 增长加速。值得注意的是，调整外汇因素后，财政第三季度的收入实际上同比增长了 15%。此外，营业收入增长更快，增长了 16%，以固定汇率计算则增长了 19%。</p>
<p>微软首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉在公司财政第三季度财报中表示：“云计算和人工智能是每个企业扩展产出、降低成本和加速增长的基本要素。我们正在整个技术栈中进行创新，以满足客户的需求，从 AI 基础设施和平台到应用程序。”</p>
<p>推动本季度业绩的是公司智能云部门的收入同比增长 21%。该部门包括公司的云计算业务 Azure。云计算基础设施系统和软件部门贡献了 33% 的同比收入增长。</p>
<p>但增长较慢的部门表现也不错。例如，微软的生产力和商业流程部门的收入同比增长了 10%，得益于微软 365 订阅的增长。</p>
<h2>高期望</h2>
<p>这种由盈利软件和服务驱动的广泛强劲表现，为公司的长期增长潜力提供了有力的支持。但考虑到目前股价的市盈率接近 40，估值是否过高？</p>
<p>鉴于该股最近的上涨，投资者不应过于兴奋。一方面，微软的平衡业务显然值得高估值倍数。毕竟，该公司拥有健康的资产负债表、强大的产品组合，并且正在实现双位数的收入和利润增长。然而，40 的市盈率似乎已经反映了大量的乐观情绪。</p>
<p>总体而言，我更倾向于将该股视为持有而非买入，尤其是在当前股价下。尽管该股估值较高，但我对这一观点感到舒适的一个原因是，公司每个季度通过支付股息来降低一些风险。</p>
<p>微软是一只优秀的股息股票。尽管其股息收益率仅为 0.7%，但未来股息支付有很大的增长空间。这一点从公司支付的股息占其收益的比例不到 25% 可以看出。此外，如果历史能对未来有所指引，更多的股息增长是很可能的。该公司已经连续 23 年每年增加股息。</p>
<p>此外，微软的股票回购计划也有助于看涨的论点。由于有充足的现金，公司正在积极回购股票。结合股息和回购，公司在财政第三季度向股东返还了 97 亿美元的资本，同比增长 15%。</p>
<p>总体而言，微软的股票在当前价格下可能不是一个很好的买入选择。另一方面，公司给股东提供了许多持有股票的理由。但考虑到该股的高估值，股东们应该预期会经历一段波动的旅程。</p>

微软

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

MSFO

微软每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

微软每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

MSFX

MSFY

<p>微软的股票从四月到七月上涨了 42%，在季度财报发布前达到了历史新高。尽管收入和利润增长令人印象深刻，但其高估值引发了担忧，市盈率接近 40。虽然公司在云计算和人工智能服务方面展现出强劲的势头，但该股票可能更适合持有而非购买。微软通过分红和股票回购继续回馈股东，但投资者应做好因股票高估值而可能出现的波动的准备</p>

<p>Ahead of <strong>Microsoft</strong>'s (MSFT -0.33%) quarterly earnings release on July 30, many investors are likely looking closely at their shares of the software giant. After all, the stock has seen an incredible run recently. Shares are up 42% from April 21 to July 17. Not only has the stock benefited from a sharp V-shaped recovery following a tariff-related sell-off that impacted much of the market, but it has also risen to a new all-time high. The problem? The valuation is now questionably rich.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 <strong>微软</strong>（MSFT -0.33%）于 7 月 30 日发布季度财报之前，许多投资者可能正在密切关注这家软件巨头的股票。毕竟，最近该股经历了令人难以置信的上涨。从 4 月 21 日到 7 月 17 日，股价上涨了 42%。不仅该股在经历了一次与关税相关的市场抛售后，迅速恢复了 V 型反弹，而且还达到了新的历史高点。问题是？目前的估值显得相当高昂。</p>
</div><p>To the company's credit, it's seeing impressive business momentum. Revenue and profit are both rising at double-digit rates, and the company appears well positioned to benefit from tailwinds in artificial intelligence (AI) -- both in terms of increased demand for its AI-related services and cost efficiencies as AI boosts employee productivity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得一提的是，该公司正在经历令人印象深刻的业务势头。收入和利润均以两位数的速度增长，公司似乎在人工智能（AI）方面处于有利位置——无论是对其 AI 相关服务的需求增加，还是 AI 提升员工生产力带来的成本效率。</p>
</div><p>But the big question is whether the stock has risen too far, too fast. Clearly, the company has great momentum. But has a sky-high valuation already priced in the bull case for this stock?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但最大的问题是，股价是否上涨得太快，太高。显然，该公司具有强大的势头。但如此高的估值是否已经将该股的乐观前景考虑在内？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3MDYvbXNmdC1zdG9jay5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825706%2Fmsft-stock.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Accelerating growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>加速增长</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft's fiscal third-quarter results from late April (its most recently reported quarter) capture how well the company is doing -- and why investors are bidding shares higher. Revenue rose 13% year over year -- an acceleration from 12% growth in fiscal Q2. Notably, when adjusting for foreign exchange, fiscal third-quarter revenue actually rose 15% year over year. Additionally, operating income grew even faster, rising 16%, or 19% in constant currency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软在 4 月底发布的财政第三季度业绩（其最近报告的季度）展示了公司表现良好的原因——以及投资者为何推高股价。收入同比增长 13%——较财政第二季度的 12% 增长加速。值得注意的是，调整外汇因素后，财政第三季度的收入实际上同比增长了 15%。此外，营业收入增长更快，增长了 16%，以固定汇率计算则增长了 19%。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Cloud and AI are the essential inputs for every business to expand output, reduce costs, and accelerate growth,&#34; said Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella in the company's fiscal third-quarter earnings release. &#34;From AI infra and platforms to apps, we are innovating across the stack to deliver for our customers.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉在公司财政第三季度财报中表示：“云计算和人工智能是每个企业扩展产出、降低成本和加速增长的基本要素。我们正在整个技术栈中进行创新，以满足客户的需求，从 AI 基础设施和平台到应用程序。”</p>
</div><p>Driving the quarter's results was a 21% year-over-year increase in revenue from the company's intelligent cloud segment. Included in this segment is the company's cloud-computing business, Azure. The cloud-powering infrastructure systems and software segment contributed 33% year-over-year revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推动本季度业绩的是公司智能云部门的收入同比增长 21%。该部门包括公司的云计算业务 Azure。云计算基础设施系统和软件部门贡献了 33% 的同比收入增长。</p>
</div><p>But slower-growing segments still did well. For instance, Microsoft's revenue from its productivity and business processes segment rose 10% year over year, helped by growing Microsoft 365 subscriptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但增长较慢的部门表现也不错。例如，微软的生产力和商业流程部门的收入同比增长了 10%，得益于微软 365 订阅的增长。</p>
</div><h2>High expectations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>高期望</h2>
</div><p>Such broad-based strength, driven by lucrative software and services, makes a compelling case for the company's long-term growth potential. But with shares now trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of nearly 40, is the valuation simply too high?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种由盈利软件和服务驱动的广泛强劲表现，为公司的长期增长潜力提供了有力的支持。但考虑到目前股价的市盈率接近 40，估值是否过高？</p>
</div><p>Given the stock's recent run-up, investors shouldn't get too excited. On the one hand, Microsoft's balanced business clearly deserves a high valuation multiple. After all, the company has a healthy balance sheet, a strong suite of products, and is seeing double-digit top- and bottom-line growth. However, a price-to-earnings ratio of 40 seems to price in plenty of optimism.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于该股最近的上涨，投资者不应过于兴奋。一方面，微软的平衡业务显然值得高估值倍数。毕竟，该公司拥有健康的资产负债表、强大的产品组合，并且正在实现双位数的收入和利润增长。然而，40 的市盈率似乎已经反映了大量的乐观情绪。</p>
</div><p>Altogether, I'd lean more toward calling the stock a hold instead of a buy at the stock's current price. One reason I'm comfortable with this view, despite the stock's high valuation, is that the company takes some risk off the table every quarter by paying investors a quarterly dividend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，我更倾向于将该股视为持有而非买入，尤其是在当前股价下。尽管该股估值较高，但我对这一观点感到舒适的一个原因是，公司每个季度通过支付股息来降低一些风险。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft is a great dividend stock. Though its dividend yield is just 0.7%, there's plenty of room for this dividend payment to grow over time. This is evident by the fact that the company is paying out less than 25% of its earnings in dividends. Additionally, if history is any indication of the future, more dividend increases are likely. The company has increased its dividend every year for 23 years straight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软是一只优秀的股息股票。尽管其股息收益率仅为 0.7%，但未来股息支付有很大的增长空间。这一点从公司支付的股息占其收益的比例不到 25% 可以看出。此外，如果历史能对未来有所指引，更多的股息增长是很可能的。该公司已经连续 23 年每年增加股息。</p>
</div><p>Also helping the bull case is Microsoft's share repurchase program. With plenty of excess cash, the company is aggressively buying back its stock. Combining its dividends and repurchases, the company spent $9.7 billion returning capital to shareholders in fiscal Q3, up 15% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，微软的股票回购计划也有助于看涨的论点。由于有充足的现金，公司正在积极回购股票。结合股息和回购，公司在财政第三季度向股东返还了 97 亿美元的资本，同比增长 15%。</p>
</div><p>Overall, Microsoft shares may not be a great buy at their current price. On the other hand, the company is giving shareholders plenty of reasons to hold onto their shares. But given the stock's premium valuation, shareholders should expect a bumpy ride.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，微软的股票在当前价格下可能不是一个很好的买入选择。另一方面，公司给股东提供了许多持有股票的理由。但考虑到该股的高估值，股东们应该预期会经历一段波动的旅程。</p>
</div>

Buy Microsoft Stock Now, or Wait for a Pullback?

- 微软股价自 4 月 21 日至 7 月 17 日上涨 42%，创下新高。  
- 第三季度营收同比增长 13%，云计算和 AI 推动业绩。  
- 当前市盈率接近 40，投资者应谨慎持股。  

现在是购买微软股票的时机，还是应该等待股价回调？