<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.46%) 今年的表现并不理想。截至 2025 年 7 月 16 日，股价下跌了 16%。这一负面趋势并没有阻止该股票在过去 10 年中飙升 562%。关于关税和人工智能（AI）进展缓慢的担忧，可能是当前投资者心中的关键因素。</p>
<p>但假设你并不气馁。如果你今天用$10,000 购买苹果股票，到 2035 年这笔钱会变成$1,000,000 吗？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU0OTEvbG9va2luZy1hdC1yaXNpbmctc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtb24tY29tcHV0ZXItc2NyZWVuLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="369" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU0OTEvbG9va2luZy1hdC1yaXNpbmctc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtb24tY29tcHV0ZXItc2NyZWVuLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>成为主导科技企业</h2>
<p>苹果多年来的成功主要归功于公司在品牌管理方面的专业知识、持续推出受欢迎产品的创新文化，以及优先考虑用户体验的设计专长。例如，这不仅仅是关于 iPod、iPhone、MacBook、iPad、AirPods 或 Watch，而是这些设备如何与软件和服务无缝集成，创造出苹果强大的生态系统。</p>
<p>这是全球最优秀的企业之一，拥有无与伦比的覆盖范围。在 2025 年第一季度的财报电话会议上，首席执行官蒂姆·库克提到，全球活跃的苹果设备超过 23.5 亿台。这个数字随着时间的推移持续上升。这表明苹果已经变得多么普遍。</p>
<p>同样令人印象深刻的是，这些产品为苹果提供了更多的经常性收入机会。首席财务官凯文·帕雷克在 2025 年第二季度财报电话会议上表示：“我们在平台上的付费订阅数量超过 10 亿。” 苹果的产品范围从金融服务如 Pay 和 Card，到 TV+、Music 和 Fitness+ 等，证明了它不仅仅是一家硬件公司。</p>
<p>要在消费者科技这一 notoriously difficult 的领域建立这样的用户基础，企业需要具备真正与消费者产生共鸣的稀有能力，且这种能力能够持续很长时间。苹果的品牌极其强大，这推动了客户忠诚度和定价能力。</p>
<p>苹果的服务部门在第二季度（截至 3 月 29 日）实现了 11.6% 的同比收入增长，增速快于整体业务。该部门报告了 75.7% 的卓越毛利率，为公司带来了可观的盈利能力。在最近的财务季度，苹果的净收入达到了 248 亿美元。</p>
<p>管理团队并没有回避向股东返还资本。自 2012 财年开始以来，苹果已向投资者返还了惊人的 9870 亿美元。绝大多数来自股票回购，每年支付约 150 亿美元的股息。</p>
<h2>苹果在未来十年</h2>
<p>投资的一个好规则是，赢家将继续获胜。显然，苹果是一家出色的企业，拥有许多优秀的特质。在过去，它对股东的关照也不遗余力。</p>
<p>但投资者必须清晰地看待今天的情况以及未来十年。随着可持续的每股收益（EPS）增长，我相信到 2035 年苹果的股价将会上涨。这可能是我唯一的积极看法。</p>
<p>我认为股票的表现不会超过更广泛的 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数。毕竟，根据华尔街的共识预测，2024 财年至 2027 财年间，EPS 预计将以每年 8.7% 的速度增长。将这一预测外推到 2035 年，并没有给投资者带来太多兴奋的期待。而且 32.7 的高市盈率也增加了下行风险。</p>
<p>苹果可能会推出另一款颠覆性产品，最终在财务成功上与 iPhone 相抗衡。然而，我认为这种结果发生的概率非常低。</p>
<p>这让我得出最后的结论：如果你今天购买价值$10,000 的苹果股票，10 年内你不会成为百万富翁。这意味着股价需要大幅上涨 100 倍，或每年 58.5%。对于任何公司来说，这都不是一个合理的预期，更不用说一家市值高达 3.1 万亿美元的公司了。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>苹果的股票在 2025 年下跌了 16%，但在过去十年中上涨了 562%。对关税和人工智能进展的担忧影响了投资者情绪。尽管拥有强大的品牌和生态系统，分析师预测到 2027 年每股收益年增长率将温和为 8.7%，这表明苹果的股票可能无法超越标准普尔 500 指数。今天对苹果的 1 万美元投资在 10 年内不太可能达到 100 万美元，因为这需要股票价格不切实际地增长 100 倍</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.46%) isn't having a great year. As of July 16, shares are down 16% in 2025. This negative trend hasn't prevented the stock from soaring 562% in the previous 10-year period. Worries about tariffs and slow progress with artificial intelligence (AI) might be the key factors on the minds of investors these days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.46%) 今年的表现并不理想。截至 2025 年 7 月 16 日，股价下跌了 16%。这一负面趋势并没有阻止该股票在过去 10 年中飙升 562%。关于关税和人工智能（AI）进展缓慢的担忧，可能是当前投资者心中的关键因素。</p>
</div><p>But let's say that you're not deterred. If you buy Apple shares today with $10,000, will that starting sum turn into $1 million by 2035?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但假设你并不气馁。如果你今天用$10,000 购买苹果股票，到 2035 年这笔钱会变成$1,000,000 吗？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU0OTEvbG9va2luZy1hdC1yaXNpbmctc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtb24tY29tcHV0ZXItc2NyZWVuLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825491%2Flooking-at-rising-stock-chart-on-computer-screen.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Becoming a dominant tech enterprise</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>成为主导科技企业</h2>
</div><p>Apple's success over the years has largely come down to the company's expertise in brand management, its innovative culture that consistently introduces popular products, and its design expertise that prioritizes the user experience. It's not just about the iPod, iPhone, MacBook, iPad, AirPods, or Watch, for example, but about how these devices seamlessly integrate with the software and services to create Apple's powerful ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果多年来的成功主要归功于公司在品牌管理方面的专业知识、持续推出受欢迎产品的创新文化，以及优先考虑用户体验的设计专长。例如，这不仅仅是关于 iPod、iPhone、MacBook、iPad、AirPods 或 Watch，而是这些设备如何与软件和服务无缝集成，创造出苹果强大的生态系统。</p>
</div><p>This is one of the best businesses in the world with unmatched reach. During the first-quarter 2025 earnings call, CEO Tim Cook mentioned that there are more than 2.35 billion active Apple devices across the globe. That figure continues to creep higher over time. And it demonstrates just how ubiquitous Apple has become.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是全球最优秀的企业之一，拥有无与伦比的覆盖范围。在 2025 年第一季度的财报电话会议上，首席执行官蒂姆·库克提到，全球活跃的苹果设备超过 23.5 亿台。这个数字随着时间的推移持续上升。这表明苹果已经变得多么普遍。</p>
</div><p>Equally if not more impressive is that these products provide Apple with the opportunity to generate more recurring revenue. ''We have well over 1 billion paid subscriptions across the services on our platform,&#34; CFO Kevan Parekh said on the Q2 2025 earnings call. With an offering set that ranges from financial services like Pay and Card, all the way to TV+, Music, and Fitness+, among others, Apple is proving that's it not just a hardware company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样令人印象深刻的是，这些产品为苹果提供了更多的经常性收入机会。首席财务官凯文·帕雷克在 2025 年第二季度财报电话会议上表示：“我们在平台上的付费订阅数量超过 10 亿。” 苹果的产品范围从金融服务如 Pay 和 Card，到 TV+、Music 和 Fitness+ 等，证明了它不仅仅是一家硬件公司。</p>
</div><p>For a business to build this kind of adoption, especially in the notoriously difficult arena of consumer technology, it requires the rare ability to truly resonate with consumers over a long period of time. Apple's brand is extremely strong, which drives customer loyalty and pricing power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要在消费者科技这一 notoriously difficult 的领域建立这样的用户基础，企业需要具备真正与消费者产生共鸣的稀有能力，且这种能力能够持续很长时间。苹果的品牌极其强大，这推动了客户忠诚度和定价能力。</p>
</div><p>Apple's services segment posted 11.6% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 (ended March 29), faster than the business overall. And this segment reports a stellar 75.7% gross margin, driving impressive profitability for the company. Apple raked in $24.8 billion in net income during the most recent fiscal quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的服务部门在第二季度（截至 3 月 29 日）实现了 11.6% 的同比收入增长，增速快于整体业务。该部门报告了 75.7% 的卓越毛利率，为公司带来了可观的盈利能力。在最近的财务季度，苹果的净收入达到了 248 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The management team hasn't shied away from returning capital to shareholders. Since the start of fiscal 2012, Apple has returned a whopping $987 billion to its investors. The vast majority has come from stock buybacks, with about $15 billion paid in dividends annually.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理团队并没有回避向股东返还资本。自 2012 财年开始以来，苹果已向投资者返还了惊人的 9870 亿美元。绝大多数来自股票回购，每年支付约 150 亿美元的股息。</p>
</div><h2>Apple over the next decade</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果在未来十年</h2>
</div><p>A good rule of thumb in investing is that winners will continue winning. Apple is clearly a fantastic business that has many wonderful qualities. And it has done nothing but take care of its shareholders in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资的一个好规则是，赢家将继续获胜。显然，苹果是一家出色的企业，拥有许多优秀的特质。在过去，它对股东的关照也不遗余力。</p>
</div><p>But investors must view the situation today and over the next decade with clarity. With sustainable earnings per share (EPS) growth, Apple's stock price will be higher in 2035, I believe. That might be the only positive perspective that I have.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但投资者必须清晰地看待今天的情况以及未来十年。随着可持续的每股收益（EPS）增长，我相信到 2035 年苹果的股价将会上涨。这可能是我唯一的积极看法。</p>
</div><p>I don't think shares will outperform the broader <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>. After all, EPS is projected to increase at a yearly clip of 8.7% between fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2027, according to Wall Street consensus estimates. Extrapolating that forecast out to 2035 doesn't give investors much to be excited about. And the expensive price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 32.7 adds downside risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为股票的表现不会超过更广泛的 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数。毕竟，根据华尔街的共识预测，2024 财年至 2027 财年间，EPS 预计将以每年 8.7% 的速度增长。将这一预测外推到 2035 年，并没有给投资者带来太多兴奋的期待。而且 32.7 的高市盈率也增加了下行风险。</p>
</div><p>Apple could introduce another game-changing product that eventually rivals the iPhone in terms of its financial success. However, I believe this outcome has a very low probability of happening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果可能会推出另一款颠覆性产品，最终在财务成功上与 iPhone 相抗衡。然而，我认为这种结果发生的概率非常低。</p>
</div><p>This brings me to the final conclusion: If you buy $10,000 worth of Apple shares today, you won't become a millionaire in 10 years. This implies a monster 100-fold increase in the stock price, or 58.5% per year. That's not a reasonable outlook to have for any company, let alone one that carries a huge $3.1 trillion market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这让我得出最后的结论：如果你今天购买价值$10,000 的苹果股票，10 年内你不会成为百万富翁。这意味着股价需要大幅上涨 100 倍，或每年 58.5%。对于任何公司来说，这都不是一个合理的预期，更不用说一家市值高达 3.1 万亿美元的公司了。</p>
</div>

If You Buy Apple With $10,000 in 2025, Will You Become a Millionaire in 10 Years?

- 苹果公司 (AAPL) 2025 年股价下跌 16%，但过去 10 年上涨 562%。  
- CEO 提到全球活跃设备超过 23.5 亿台，服务收入增长 11.6%。  
- 预计未来 10 年 EPS 年增 8.7%，不太可能实现百万富翁目标。  

如果你在 2025 年用 1 万美元购买苹果股票，10 年后能否成为百万富翁？