<p>在经历了超过两年的快速增长和超过 1000% 的股价涨幅后，<strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA -0.42%) 的投资者开始采取更为谨慎的态度。对人工智能（AI）未来增长前景的担忧、对中国销售的不确定性以及对关税影响的恐惧，最近几个月都对这家芯片制造商造成了压力。或许投资者最大的疑问是，AI 革命是否可持续。</p>
<p>许多专家认为，人工智能的广泛应用才刚刚开始，但投资者一直在寻找更多的证据。<strong>台积电</strong>(TSM -2.12%)，通常被称为 TSMC，在周四早上公布了第二季度的业绩，提供了迄今为止最清晰的迹象，表明 AI 仍有增长空间。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU2NjAvYS1wZXJzb24tb24tdGhlLXBob25lLXBvaW50aW5nLXRvLW1vdmVtZW50LW9uLWEtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="468" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU2NjAvYS1wZXJzb24tb24tdGhlLXBob25lLXBvaW50aW5nLXRvLW1vdmVtZW50LW9uLWEtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>通往 AI 明星的代工厂</h2>
<p>台积电是全球最大的芯片代工厂，控制着约 60% 的合同半导体制造市场。更重要的是，它在最先进芯片市场的份额估计达到 90%，这些芯片用于高性能计算和人工智能，而英伟达是其最大的客户之一。因此，台积电对 AI 需求的脉搏了如指掌，其近期表现与技术的加速采用直接相关。</p>
<p>尽管台积电的投资者对业绩寄予厚望，但他们获得的结果远超预期。在第二季度，该公司实现收入 301 亿美元，同比增长 39%，环比增长 11%。这导致调整后的每股收益（EPS）激增 61%，创下历史新高，达到 2.47 美元（每个美国存托凭证单位）。</p>
<p>为了将结果与预期进行对比，分析师的共识预期为收入 302 亿美元和每股收益 2.38 美元。业绩的提升主要得益于台积电的高性能计算（HPC）部门，因 AI 需求强劲。公司指出，其最先进的芯片——7 纳米及更小的芯片——在该季度的总晶圆销售中占比达到 74%。</p>
<p>如果这些还不足以让投资者兴奋，台积电还上调了 2025 年的预测，现在预计全年收入将以美元计增长 30%。</p>
<p>首席执行官魏哲家毫不怀疑推动这些出色业绩的原因，他表示这些业绩 “主要得益于持续强劲的 AI 和 HPC 相关需求。” 他还表示，“近期的发展对 AI 的长期需求前景也是积极的。” 他指出，AI 模型的使用和采用正在增加，表示公司看到 “AI 需求将继续强劲。”</p>
<h2>这对英伟达意味着什么</h2>
<p>不可否认，英伟达一直是 AI 广泛应用的主要受益者之一。在过去，该公司主要被视为一家游戏公司，提供用于视频游戏中创建逼真图像的图形处理单元（GPU）——但这些日子已经一去不复返。</p>
<p>在英伟达 2026 财年第一季度，收入达到 440 亿美元，同比增长 69%，但深入分析结果则揭示了一个故事。数据中心收入，包括 AI 芯片，激增 69%，达到创纪录的 390 亿美元。同时，游戏和 PC 收入也增长 42%，达到 38 亿美元。换句话说，英伟达的数据中心销售占公司总收入的 89%。这就是为什么投资者如此密切关注 AI 需求是否减弱的任何迹象，因为这对英伟达过去几年的成功至关重要。</p>
<p>展望未来，英伟达预计第二季度收入约为 450 亿美元，这将代表同比增长 50%。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，英伟达在第一季度遭遇了 45 亿美元的费用，这源于对其出口到中国的 H20 芯片的管制。就在本周，首席执行官黄仁勋在一篇博客中透露，英伟达已申请恢复销售这些芯片的许可证，并已获得特朗普政府的保证，称其申请将获得批准。分析师估计，额外的销售在下半年可能价值高达 150 亿美元。</p>
<p>现有证据表明，AI 革命依然生机勃勃。再加上恢复对中国的芯片销售，表明英伟达未来有着广阔的增长空间。而且，由于其市盈率仅为明年预期收益的 29 倍，仍然具有吸引力。</p>
<p>这就是为什么我预测英伟达的股票在 2025 年剩余时间里可能会飙升。</p>

台积电

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达的股票预计将在 2025 年下半年大幅上涨，这主要受到强劲的人工智能需求和台积电（TSMC）的积极消息推动。台积电报告称，其收入同比增长 39%，这主要得益于其高性能计算部门，而该部门对人工智能至关重要。英伟达的收入显著受益于人工智能，数据中心销售占其总收入的 89%。分析师预计，恢复对中国的芯片出口可能带来的额外销售额可达 150 亿美元，这表明英伟达的增长前景强劲</p>

<p>After a blistering run that spanned more than two years and stock price gains of over 1,000%, <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.42%) investors are taking a more measured approach. Concerns about the future growth prospects of artificial intelligence (AI), uncertainty about sales in China, and fears over the impact of tariffs have all weighed on the chipmaker in recent months. Perhaps the biggest question for investors is whether the AI revolution is sustainable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经历了超过两年的快速增长和超过 1000% 的股价涨幅后，<strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA -0.42%) 的投资者开始采取更为谨慎的态度。对人工智能（AI）未来增长前景的担忧、对中国销售的不确定性以及对关税影响的恐惧，最近几个月都对这家芯片制造商造成了压力。或许投资者最大的疑问是，AI 革命是否可持续。</p>
</div><p>Many experts believe the widespread adoption of AI is just getting started, but investors have been looking for additional evidence. <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM -2.12%), commonly referred to as TSMC, reported its second-quarter results Thursday morning, providing the clearest sign yet that AI still has room to run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多专家认为，人工智能的广泛应用才刚刚开始，但投资者一直在寻找更多的证据。<strong>台积电</strong>(TSM -2.12%)，通常被称为 TSMC，在周四早上公布了第二季度的业绩，提供了迄今为止最清晰的迹象，表明 AI 仍有增长空间。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU2NjAvYS1wZXJzb24tb24tdGhlLXBob25lLXBvaW50aW5nLXRvLW1vdmVtZW50LW9uLWEtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825660%2Fa-person-on-the-phone-pointing-to-movement-on-a-stock-chart.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Foundry to the AI stars</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>通往 AI 明星的代工厂</h2>
</div><p>TSMC is the world's largest chip foundry, controlling an estimated 60% of the contract semiconductor manufacturing market. Perhaps more importantly, it has an estimated 90% of the market for the most advanced chips, those used for high-performance computing and AI -- and Nvidia is one of its biggest customers. As such, TSMC has its finger on the pulse of AI demand, and its recent performance is directly tied to the accelerating adoption of the technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电是全球最大的芯片代工厂，控制着约 60% 的合同半导体制造市场。更重要的是，它在最先进芯片市场的份额估计达到 90%，这些芯片用于高性能计算和人工智能，而英伟达是其最大的客户之一。因此，台积电对 AI 需求的脉搏了如指掌，其近期表现与技术的加速采用直接相关。</p>
</div><p>While TSMC investors had high hopes for the results, they got much more than they bargained for. In the second quarter, the company generated revenue of $30.1 billion, up 39% year over year and 11% quarter over quarter. This resulted in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) that surged 61% to a record high $2.47 (per American depositary receipt unit).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管台积电的投资者对业绩寄予厚望，但他们获得的结果远超预期。在第二季度，该公司实现收入 301 亿美元，同比增长 39%，环比增长 11%。这导致调整后的每股收益（EPS）激增 61%，创下历史新高，达到 2.47 美元（每个美国存托凭证单位）。</p>
</div><p>To put the results into context with expectations, analysts' consensus estimates were calling for revenue of $30.2 billion and EPS of $2.38. The results were driven higher by TSMC's high-performance computing (HPC) division due to strong demand for AI. The company noted that its most advanced chips -- 7 nanometer and smaller -- represented 74% of total wafer sales during the quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了将结果与预期进行对比，分析师的共识预期为收入 302 亿美元和每股收益 2.38 美元。业绩的提升主要得益于台积电的高性能计算（HPC）部门，因 AI 需求强劲。公司指出，其最先进的芯片——7 纳米及更小的芯片——在该季度的总晶圆销售中占比达到 74%。</p>
</div><p>If that weren't enough to get investors excited, TSMC raised its 2025 forecast and now expects full-year revenue to climb 30% in U.S. dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这些还不足以让投资者兴奋，台积电还上调了 2025 年的预测，现在预计全年收入将以美元计增长 30%。</p>
</div><p>CEO C.C. Wei left no doubt about what drove the blockbuster results, which he said were &#34;mainly due to continued robust AI and HPC-related demand.&#34; He went on to say that &#34;recent developments are also positive to AI's long-term demand outlook.&#34; He pointed to increasing AI model usage and adoption, saying the company sees &#34;AI demand continuing to be strong.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席执行官魏哲家毫不怀疑推动这些出色业绩的原因，他表示这些业绩 “主要得益于持续强劲的 AI 和 HPC 相关需求。” 他还表示，“近期的发展对 AI 的长期需求前景也是积极的。” 他指出，AI 模型的使用和采用正在增加，表示公司看到 “AI 需求将继续强劲。”</p>
</div><h2>What this means for Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这对英伟达意味着什么</h2>
</div><p>There's no denying that Nvidia has been one of the primary beneficiaries of the broad adoption of AI. In the past, the company was primarily known as a gaming company, supplying the graphics processing units (GPUs) that create lifelike images in video games -- but those days are long gone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不可否认，英伟达一直是 AI 广泛应用的主要受益者之一。在过去，该公司主要被视为一家游戏公司，提供用于视频游戏中创建逼真图像的图形处理单元（GPU）——但这些日子已经一去不复返。</p>
</div><p>In Nvidia's fiscal 2026 first quarter, revenue of $44 billion jumped 69% year over year, but drilling down into the results tells a story. Data center revenue, including AI chips, soared 69% to a record $39 billion. At the same time, gaming and PC revenue jumped 42% to $3.8 billion. Put another way, Nvidia's data center sales accounted for 89% of the company's considerable revenue. That's why investors are watching so closely for any sign of weakening demand for AI, as it's so central to Nvidia's success over the past few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在英伟达 2026 财年第一季度，收入达到 440 亿美元，同比增长 69%，但深入分析结果则揭示了一个故事。数据中心收入，包括 AI 芯片，激增 69%，达到创纪录的 390 亿美元。同时，游戏和 PC 收入也增长 42%，达到 38 亿美元。换句话说，英伟达的数据中心销售占公司总收入的 89%。这就是为什么投资者如此密切关注 AI 需求是否减弱的任何迹象，因为这对英伟达过去几年的成功至关重要。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, Nvidia is guiding for second-quarter revenue of roughly $45 billion, which would represent year-over-year growth of 50%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，英伟达预计第二季度收入约为 450 亿美元，这将代表同比增长 50%。</p>
</div><p>It's worth noting that Nvidia incurred a $4.5 billion charge in the first quarter, the result of export controls on its H20 chips destined for China. Just this week, CEO Jensen Huang revealed in a blog post that Nvidia has applied for a license to resume sales of these chips and had received assurances from the Trump administration that its application will be approved. Analysts estimate that the additional sales could be worth as much as $15 billion in the second half of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，英伟达在第一季度遭遇了 45 亿美元的费用，这源于对其出口到中国的 H20 芯片的管制。就在本周，首席执行官黄仁勋在一篇博客中透露，英伟达已申请恢复销售这些芯片的许可证，并已获得特朗普政府的保证，称其申请将获得批准。分析师估计，额外的销售在下半年可能价值高达 150 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The available evidence suggests the AI revolution is alive and well. That, combined with the resumption of chip sales to China, suggests Nvidia has a long runway for growth ahead. And since it's selling for just 29 times next year's expected earnings, it's still attractively priced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现有证据表明，AI 革命依然生机勃勃。再加上恢复对中国的芯片销售，表明英伟达未来有着广阔的增长空间。而且，由于其市盈率仅为明年预期收益的 29 倍，仍然具有吸引力。</p>
</div><p>And that's why I predict Nvidia stock will likely soar for the rest of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么我预测英伟达的股票在 2025 年剩余时间里可能会飙升。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Nvidia Stock Will Soar in the Second Half of 2025, Thanks to This Incredible News From Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

- 英伟达投资者对未来增长前景持谨慎态度，受多重因素影响。  
- 台积电第二季度营收达 301 亿美元，同比增长 39%，显示 AI 需求强劲。  
- 英伟达预计第二季度营收约 450 亿美元，AI 革命仍在持续。  

预测：由于台积电传来的这一令人难以置信的消息，英伟达的股票将在 2025 年下半年大幅上涨