<p><strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR -0.30%) 的股票在 2025 年表现异常出色，目前上涨约 100%。在五年内，只有少数股票能达到这样的表现，更不用说在短短半年内了。</p>
<p>由于 Palantir 的出色表现，它已成为市场上最受欢迎的股票之一；然而，过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。相反，投资者需要展望这家人工智能（AI）巨头的未来。三年是一个漫长的时间，但到那时 Palantir 的股价会是什么样子呢？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ0MTQvc3RvY2staW52ZXN0b3ItbG9va2luZy1hdC1sYXB0b3AtY29uZnVzZWQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ0MTQvc3RvY2staW52ZXN0b3ItbG9va2luZy1hdC1sYXB0b3AtY29uZnVzZWQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Palantir 的增长有两个方面</h2>
<p>Palantir 是一款基于人工智能的数据分析软件平台，允许客户将多个数据流输入平台并获得可操作的洞察。最初，这款软件是为政府使用而设计的，但在过去十年中已扩展到商业领域。</p>
<p>由于与政府的长期合作，它已深深融入政府的运作中，使得其产品难以被替代。不过，这并不意味着各种政府机构（无论是外国还是国内）没有在扩大对 Palantir 软件的使用。在第一季度，政府收入在美国和全球均增长了 45%，这表明基于人工智能的政府仍在不断发展。</p>
<p>尽管 Palantir 的政府收入超过其商业收入，但美国商业部门的增长速度最快。在第一季度，美国商业收入同比增长 71%，显示出令人印象深刻的采用率。然而，全球商业销售疲软，主要是由于欧洲对人工智能的采用较慢。这在未来几年可能会有所改善，并对 Palantir 的长期增长产生实质性好处。</p>
<p>在公司层面，Palantir 在第一季度实现了 39% 的令人印象深刻的增长率。要在未来几年内保持这一增长率将是一项艰巨的任务，但如果能够做到，股价将上涨多少呢？</p>
<h2>即使是最乐观的 Palantir 投资论点也难以证明今天的价格合理</h2>
<p>让我们考虑一个极端乐观的 Palantir 股票情景，以确定其从今天的价值中潜在的上行空间。在过去的 12 个月中，Palantir 的收入为 31.1 亿美元。假设它的增长率从当前的 39% 加速到 50%，并在接下来的三年内保持这一增长率。如果能够做到，Palantir 的收入将达到 105 亿美元。</p>
<p>Palantir 也开始成熟，因此假设其利润率在此期间提高到 30%，这将意味着 Palantir 的利润为 31.5 亿美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f7d6396c993860123cd697793434dd02.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f7d6396c993860123cd697793434dd02.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR 利润率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>这表明与今天的水平相比有显著增长，但我们仍然缺少一些关键信息点来准确评估股票的价值。许多软件公司以 10 到 20 倍的销售额和 30 到 50 倍的收益交易。如果我们给 Palantir 一个好处，使用 20 倍的销售额和 50 倍的收益数据，这将使 Palantir 的股票价格为 89 美元（基于销售比率），或 67 美元（基于收益比率）。</p>
<p>这远低于今天约 150 美元的股价。这就是当你使用实际的增长预测来确定未来股价时所发生的情况。Palantir 的股票已与实际业务脱节，目前的估值极其昂贵。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d75211be19d746ed2e8bc7b85c8ba832.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d75211be19d746ed2e8bc7b85c8ba832.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS 比率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>其当前估值已反映出超过三年的增长，这表明今天的估值极其泡沫化。</p>
<p>投资者需要理解这一点，或者减少他们在 Palantir 的持仓，或者完全避开它。投资者不应感到惊讶，如果三年后 Palantir 的股价更低，因为 Palantir 必须继续超越预期，否则将面临因其昂贵估值而被抛售的风险。</p>

PLTR

<p>Palantir Technologies (PLTR) 的股票在 2025 年上涨了 100%，成为投资者的热门选择。然而，其未来股价仍然不确定。该公司在政府收入方面实现了显著增长（增长 45%）和美国商业收入（增长 71%），但由于欧洲人工智能的采用缓慢，全球销售滞后。尽管有乐观的情景预测收入将达到 105 亿美元，利润为 31.5 亿美元，但当前估值显示该股票在约 150 美元的价格上被高估，如果未能满足增长预期，可能会出现下跌</p>

<p><strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR -0.30%) stock has been on an absolute roll in 2025, rising around 100% so far. Few stocks deliver that level of performance in five years, let alone half of one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR -0.30%) 的股票在 2025 年表现异常出色，目前上涨约 100%。在五年内，只有少数股票能达到这样的表现，更不用说在短短半年内了。</p>
</div><p>As a result of Palantir's performance, it has become one of the most popular stocks to own in the market; however, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Instead, investors need to look ahead to what's next for this artificial intelligence (AI) giant. Three years is a long way away, but what will Palantir's stock price look like at that point?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于 Palantir 的出色表现，它已成为市场上最受欢迎的股票之一；然而，过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。相反，投资者需要展望这家人工智能（AI）巨头的未来。三年是一个漫长的时间，但到那时 Palantir 的股价会是什么样子呢？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ0MTQvc3RvY2staW52ZXN0b3ItbG9va2luZy1hdC1sYXB0b3AtY29uZnVzZWQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824414%2Fstock-investor-looking-at-laptop-confused.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Palantir's growth is two-pronged</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir 的增长有两个方面</h2>
</div><p>Palantir is an AI-powered data analytics software platform that allows its clients to input several data streams into the platform and receive actionable insights. Originally, this software was intended for government use, but it has expanded to the commercial side within the past decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 是一款基于人工智能的数据分析软件平台，允许客户将多个数据流输入平台并获得可操作的洞察。最初，这款软件是为政府使用而设计的，但在过去十年中已扩展到商业领域。</p>
</div><p>As a result of its long history with the government, it has become deeply interwoven throughout the government's workings, making it a challenging product to move away from. Still, that doesn't mean various government entities (both foreign and domestic) aren't expanding their use of Palantir's software. In Q1, government revenue increased by 45% in both the U.S. and worldwide, indicating that the AI-powered government is still being developed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于与政府的长期合作，它已深深融入政府的运作中，使得其产品难以被替代。不过，这并不意味着各种政府机构（无论是外国还是国内）没有在扩大对 Palantir 软件的使用。在第一季度，政府收入在美国和全球均增长了 45%，这表明基于人工智能的政府仍在不断发展。</p>
</div><p>Although Palantir's government revenue exceeds its commercial revenue, the U.S. commercial segment is growing at the fastest rate. In Q1, U.S. commercial revenue rose 71% year over year, showcasing impressive adoption. However, global commerce sales were weak, mainly due to Europe's slower adoption of AI. That could turn around in the next few years and substantially benefit Palantir's long-term growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Palantir 的政府收入超过其商业收入，但美国商业部门的增长速度最快。在第一季度，美国商业收入同比增长 71%，显示出令人印象深刻的采用率。然而，全球商业销售疲软，主要是由于欧洲对人工智能的采用较慢。这在未来几年可能会有所改善，并对 Palantir 的长期增长产生实质性好处。</p>
</div><p>Companywide, Palantir posted an impressive 39% growth rate during Q1. It will be a tall task to maintain that growth rate for the next few years, but how much higher will the stock price rise if it does?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在公司层面，Palantir 在第一季度实现了 39% 的令人印象深刻的增长率。要在未来几年内保持这一增长率将是一项艰巨的任务，但如果能够做到，股价将上涨多少呢？</p>
</div><h2>Even the most bullish Palantir investment thesis has problems justifying today's price</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>即使是最乐观的 Palantir 投资论点也难以证明今天的价格合理</h2>
</div><p>Let's consider an extreme bullish scenario for Palantir's stock to determine its potential upside from today's value. Over the past 12 months, Palantir generated $3.11 billion in revenue. Instead of the current 39% growth rate, let's assume it can accelerate to 50% and sustain this rate over the next three years. If it can do that, Palantir would have $10.5 billion in revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们考虑一个极端乐观的 Palantir 股票情景，以确定其从今天的价值中潜在的上行空间。在过去的 12 个月中，Palantir 的收入为 31.1 亿美元。假设它的增长率从当前的 39% 加速到 50%，并在接下来的三年内保持这一增长率。如果能够做到，Palantir 的收入将达到 105 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Palantir is also starting to mature as a business, so let's say its profit margin can improve to 30% during that time frame, which would indicate Palantir produced $3.15 billion in profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 也开始成熟，因此假设其利润率在此期间提高到 30%，这将意味着 Palantir 的利润为 31.5 亿美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f7d6396c993860123cd697793434dd02.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f7d6396c993860123cd697793434dd02.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR Profit Margin data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR 利润率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>That indicates significant growth from today's level, but we're still missing a few key information points to value the stock accurately. Many software companies trade for 10 to 20 times sales and 30 to 50 times earnings. If we give Palantir the benefit of the doubt and use the 20 times sales and 50 times earnings figure, that would give Palantir a stock price of $89 using the price-to-sales ratio, or $67 using the price-to-earnings ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这表明与今天的水平相比有显著增长，但我们仍然缺少一些关键信息点来准确评估股票的价值。许多软件公司以 10 到 20 倍的销售额和 30 到 50 倍的收益交易。如果我们给 Palantir 一个好处，使用 20 倍的销售额和 50 倍的收益数据，这将使 Palantir 的股票价格为 89 美元（基于销售比率），或 67 美元（基于收益比率）。</p>
</div><p>That's <em>far</em> less than today's stock price of about $150. That's what happens when you use actual growth projections to determine a future stock price. Palantir's stock has become unlinked from the actual business, and trades for an incredibly expensive valuation right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这远低于今天约 150 美元的股价。这就是当你使用实际的增长预测来确定未来股价时所发生的情况。Palantir 的股票已与实际业务脱节，目前的估值极其昂贵。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d75211be19d746ed2e8bc7b85c8ba832.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d75211be19d746ed2e8bc7b85c8ba832.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR PS 比率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Its current valuation prices in well over three years of growth, which indicates that today's valuation is incredibly frothy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其当前估值已反映出超过三年的增长，这表明今天的估值极其泡沫化。</p>
</div><p>Investors need to understand this, and either reduce their Palantir position or steer clear of it entirely. Investors shouldn't be surprised if Palantir's stock price is lower three years from now, as Palantir must continue beating expectations or risk being sold off due to its expensive valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者需要理解这一点，或者减少他们在 Palantir 的持仓，或者完全避开它。投资者不应感到惊讶，如果三年后 Palantir 的股价更低，因为 Palantir 必须继续超越预期，否则将面临因其昂贵估值而被抛售的风险。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Will Be Palantir's Stock Price in 3 Years

- Palantir Technologies 股票在 2025 年上涨约 100%，成为市场热门股票。  
- 政府收入在 Q1 增长 45%，而美国商业收入增长 71%。  
- 当前估值高于实际业务增长，未来三年可能面临下行风险。

预测：这将是 Palantir Tech 三年后的股票价格