<p>自 1960 年代中期以来，<strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A 0.29%）（BRK.B 0.10%）的沃伦·巴菲特在华尔街的表现一直出色。这位被称为 “奥马哈的先知” 的投资者，至 2023 年 7 月 17 日收盘时，其公司 A 类股票（BRK.A）的累计回报率达到了 5,732,279%。</p>
<p>凭借如此令人印象深刻的业绩，投资者试图模仿他的交易活动，以期获得可观的长期收益，这并不令人惊讶。</p>
<p>由于向证券交易委员会提交的 13F 表格，追踪巴菲特的交易相对容易。13F 是一个必须在季度结束后不超过 45 个日历日内提交的报告，允许投资者查看华尔街最聪明的资产管理者正在买入、卖出和持有哪些股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3MTAvYnVmZmV0dDYtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3MTAvYnVmZmV0dDYtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特。图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<p>根据伯克希尔哈撒韦的季度 13F 报告，我们知道自 2022 年 10 月以来，巴菲特的卖出远远超过买入。这一卖出行为在伯克希尔的主要持股——科技巨头 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 0.46%）中得到了显著体现。但与此同时，这位奥马哈的先知也在寻找一些引人注目的投资机会，正如他连续三个季度增持的消费类股票所示。</p>
<h2>巴菲特告别超过 6.15 亿股苹果股票</h2>
<p>到 2023 年第三季度结束时，沃伦·巴菲特在其公司的投资组合中持有 915,560,382 股苹果股票。但在接下来的 12 个月里，伯克希尔的亿万富翁首席执行官处置了 615,560,382 股，下降幅度达到 67%。巴菲特仍持有 3 亿股苹果股票，这仍然是他公司按市值计算的第一大持股。</p>
<p>百万美元的问题是：“为什么华尔街最受尊敬的资金经理会将其在苹果的三分之二股份送上砧板？”</p>
<p>一个可能的答案与企业所得税率有关。在 2024 年 5 月的伯克希尔哈撒韦年度股东大会上，早在唐纳德·特朗普总统 11 月胜选之前，巴菲特就曾表示，未来边际企业所得税率可能会上升。因此，锁定苹果的可观未实现收益，从事后看来，将受到投资者的青睐。</p>
<p>自从发表这一声明以来，国会通过了《一项伟大的美丽法案》，并由特朗普总统签署成为法律，使 21% 的边际企业所得税率成为永久性。</p>
<p>但这次卖出活动可能还有更多深意。</p>
<p>首先，苹果的增长引擎在过去几年中停滞不前。尽管与订阅服务相关的收入持续以令人印象深刻的速度增长，且服务在净销售中占比越来越大，但苹果的实体设备销售（iPhone、Mac、iPad 及各种可穿戴设备，包括 Apple Watch）却停滞不前或下降。</p>
<p>在 2021 财年（截至 2021 年 9 月 25 日），苹果报告净收入为 947 亿美元，每股收益（EPS）为 5.67 美元。三年后，苹果的净收入为 937 亿美元，每股收益为 6.11 美元。苹果的净收入有所下降，其全球领先的股票回购计划则是其每股收益增长的唯一原因。</p>
<p>巴菲特的另一个担忧可能是苹果的估值。伯克希尔的亿万富翁首席执行官不愿妥协的少数几条不成文规则之一就是他希望获得一个好交易。不幸的是，苹果的前瞻市盈率（P/E）表明，它绝对不是一个好交易。</p>
<p>尽管苹果的利润增长停滞不前，但其股票在过去三年中上涨了 40%，而其前瞻市盈率则相对激进，达到了 27。尽管苹果依然非常盈利，管理层支持积极的股票回购，但苹果股票的价值主张显然并不存在。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3MTAvZW1wbG95ZWVzLWVhdC1waXp6YS1jb25mZXJlbmNlLXJvb20tYnVzaW5lc3MtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="477" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3MTAvZW1wbG95ZWVzLWVhdC1waXp6YS1jb25mZXJlbmNlLXJvb20tYnVzaW5lc3MtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>奥马哈的先知连续三个季度购买这家消费巨头的股票</h2>
<p>尽管沃伦·巴菲特在 2022 年 10 月 1 日至 2025 年 3 月 31 日期间，累计卖出股票的金额比购买的多出 1744 亿美元，但他发现了几家值得大量投资的特殊企业。其中一家顶级公司是餐饮连锁店 <strong>达美乐比萨</strong>（DPZ -0.55%），自 2004 年 7 月首次公开募股（IPO）以来，其股价已上涨超过 7400%，包括分红。</p>
<p>在 2024 年中期，伯克希尔哈撒韦并未持有达美乐比萨的任何股份。从那时起，奥马哈的先知监督了以下购买：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>2024 年第三季度</strong>：1,277,256 股</li>
<li><strong>2024 年第四季度</strong>：1,104,744 股</li>
<li><strong>2025 年第一季度</strong>：238,613 股（总持股 2,620,613 股）</li>
</ul>
<p>巴菲特并不是偶然进入十亿美元的投资。他对达美乐比萨的兴趣可能与其在较长时间内实现或超越增长目标的能力有关。</p>
<p>达美乐管理层提出的最新五年计划，名为 “渴望更多”，优先考虑通过人工智能和供应链改进来推动创新。还特别关注公司的特许经营商及其在提升品牌价值方面的责任。</p>
<p>例如，2024 年是达美乐国际门店连续第 31 年实现同店销售增长。如果公司的品牌传播没有打动消费者，海外的有机销售不会如此持续增长。</p>
<p>巴菲特可能还欣赏的是达美乐比萨与其消费者基础建立的信任。在 2000 年代末，达美乐发起了一场自我反省的宣传活动，承认其比萨质量不佳，并承诺会做得更好。尽管这种类型的广告活动并不总是有效，但达美乐在过去 15 年中展现的透明度与其客户产生了共鸣，并使许多人对该品牌保持忠诚。</p>
<p>此外，达美乐比萨已经连续十多年提高其基础年度股息，并偶尔回购自己的股票。巴菲特这位亿万富翁投资者通常非常喜欢那些奖励/激励其长期股东的企业。</p>
<p>对达美乐比萨唯一的批评是，其股票以 24 倍的未来年度收益率并不便宜。然而，巴菲特对消费者行为有敏锐的洞察力，必定对达美乐的 “渴望更多” 战略增长计划感到满意。</p>

达美乐比萨

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>沃伦·巴菲特已出售伯克希尔哈撒韦在苹果公司的 67% 股份，将其持股从超过 9.15 亿股减少至 3 亿股。这一决定是在对苹果公司增长停滞和高估值的担忧中做出的，其前瞻市盈率为 27。尽管如此，巴菲特仍然投资于达美乐比萨，自 2024 年中以来已收购超过 260 万股，因其自上市以来的出色增长而受到吸引</p>

<p>Since the mid-1960s, <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>'s (BRK.A 0.29%) (BRK.B 0.10%) Warren Buffett has had a knack for outperforming for Wall Street. The aptly named Oracle of Omaha has overseen a cumulative return in his company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 5,732,279%, as of the closing bell on July 17.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 1960 年代中期以来，<strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A 0.29%）（BRK.B 0.10%）的沃伦·巴菲特在华尔街的表现一直出色。这位被称为 “奥马哈的先知” 的投资者，至 2023 年 7 月 17 日收盘时，其公司 A 类股票（BRK.A）的累计回报率达到了 5,732,279%。</p>
</div><p>With a track record this impressive, it's not surprising that investors attempt to mirror his trading activity and ride his coattails to substantive long-term gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>凭借如此令人印象深刻的业绩，投资者试图模仿他的交易活动，以期获得可观的长期收益，这并不令人惊讶。</p>
</div><p>Tracking Buffett's trades is relatively easy, thanks to Form 13F filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. A 13F is a required filing no later than 45 calendar days following the end to a quarter that allows investors to see which stocks Wall Street's smartest asset managers have been buying, selling, and holding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于向证券交易委员会提交的 13F 表格，追踪巴菲特的交易相对容易。13F 是一个必须在季度结束后不超过 45 个日历日内提交的报告，允许投资者查看华尔街最聪明的资产管理者正在买入、卖出和持有哪些股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3MTAvYnVmZmV0dDYtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825710%2Fbuffett6-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔哈撒韦首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特。图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><p>Based on Berkshire Hathaway's quarterly 13Fs, we know Buffett has been doing far more selling than buying since October 2022. This selling has been highlighted by a significant pare down in Berkshire's top holding, tech goliath <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.46%). But at the same time, the Oracle of Omaha is finding pockets of intrigue, as evidenced by the consumer-facing stock he's loaded up on for three consecutive quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据伯克希尔哈撒韦的季度 13F 报告，我们知道自 2022 年 10 月以来，巴菲特的卖出远远超过买入。这一卖出行为在伯克希尔的主要持股——科技巨头 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 0.46%）中得到了显著体现。但与此同时，这位奥马哈的先知也在寻找一些引人注目的投资机会，正如他连续三个季度增持的消费类股票所示。</p>
</div><h2>Buffett bids adieu to more than 615 million shares of Apple</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特告别超过 6.15 亿股苹果股票</h2>
</div><p>When the third quarter of 2023 came to an end, Warren Buffett oversaw 915,560,382 shares of Apple in his company's investment portfolio. But over the following 12 months, Berkshire's billionaire chief disposed of 615,560,382 shares, equating to a decline of 67%. Buffett still holds 300 million shares of Apple, and it remains his company's No. 1 holding by market value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到 2023 年第三季度结束时，沃伦·巴菲特在其公司的投资组合中持有 915,560,382 股苹果股票。但在接下来的 12 个月里，伯克希尔的亿万富翁首席执行官处置了 615,560,382 股，下降幅度达到 67%。巴菲特仍持有 3 亿股苹果股票，这仍然是他公司按市值计算的第一大持股。</p>
</div><p>The million-dollar question is: &#34;Why did Wall Street's most esteemed money manager send two-thirds of his stake in Apple to the chopping block?&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>百万美元的问题是：“为什么华尔街最受尊敬的资金经理会将其在苹果的三分之二股份送上砧板？”</p>
</div><p>One possible answer has to do with corporate income tax rates. In May 2024, during Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting and well before President Donald Trump's November victory, Buffett opined that the peak marginal corporate income tax rate was likely to climb in the future. Therefore, locking in sizable unrealized gains in Apple would, in hindsight, be viewed favorably by investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个可能的答案与企业所得税率有关。在 2024 年 5 月的伯克希尔哈撒韦年度股东大会上，早在唐纳德·特朗普总统 11 月胜选之前，巴菲特就曾表示，未来边际企业所得税率可能会上升。因此，锁定苹果的可观未实现收益，从事后看来，将受到投资者的青睐。</p>
</div><p>Since making this statement, Congress passed and President Trump signed the One, Big, Beautiful Bill into law, which makes the 21% peak marginal corporate income tax rate permanent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自从发表这一声明以来，国会通过了《一项伟大的美丽法案》，并由特朗普总统签署成为法律，使 21% 的边际企业所得税率成为永久性。</p>
</div><p>But there might be more to this selling activity than meets the eye.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这次卖出活动可能还有更多深意。</p>
</div><p>For starters, Apple's growth engine has stalled over the last couple of years. Although revenue tied to subscription services has continued to climb at an impressive pace, and services are becoming a larger percentage of net sales, Apple's physical device sales (iPhone, Mac, iPad, and various wearables, including Apple Watch) have been stagnant or down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，苹果的增长引擎在过去几年中停滞不前。尽管与订阅服务相关的收入持续以令人印象深刻的速度增长，且服务在净销售中占比越来越大，但苹果的实体设备销售（iPhone、Mac、iPad 及各种可穿戴设备，包括 Apple Watch）却停滞不前或下降。</p>
</div><p>In fiscal 2021 (ended Sept. 25, 2021), Apple reported $94.7 billion in net income and $5.67 in earnings per share (EPS). Three years later, Apple delivered $93.7 billion in net income and $6.11 in EPS. Apple's net income has declined, with its world-leading share repurchase program responsible for the entirety of its EPS growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2021 财年（截至 2021 年 9 月 25 日），苹果报告净收入为 947 亿美元，每股收益（EPS）为 5.67 美元。三年后，苹果的净收入为 937 亿美元，每股收益为 6.11 美元。苹果的净收入有所下降，其全球领先的股票回购计划则是其每股收益增长的唯一原因。</p>
</div><p>The other concern for Warren Buffett might be Apple's valuation. One of the few unwritten rules that Berkshire's billionaire chief wont waver on is his desire to get a good deal. Unfortunately, Apple's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio suggests it's anything but a good deal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特的另一个担忧可能是苹果的估值。伯克希尔的亿万富翁首席执行官不愿妥协的少数几条不成文规则之一就是他希望获得一个好交易。不幸的是，苹果的前瞻市盈率（P/E）表明，它绝对不是一个好交易。</p>
</div><p>In spite of Apple's profit growth being stagnant, its stock is up 40% over the trailing-three-year period, and its forward P/E ratio is a fairly aggressive 27. Though Apple remains very profitable and management supports aggressive share buybacks, the value proposition with Apple stock simply isn't there.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管苹果的利润增长停滞不前，但其股票在过去三年中上涨了 40%，而其前瞻市盈率则相对激进，达到了 27。尽管苹果依然非常盈利，管理层支持积极的股票回购，但苹果股票的价值主张显然并不存在。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3MTAvZW1wbG95ZWVzLWVhdC1waXp6YS1jb25mZXJlbmNlLXJvb20tYnVzaW5lc3MtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825710%2Femployees-eat-pizza-conference-room-business-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The Oracle of Omaha has purchased shares of this consumer giant for three consecutive quarters</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>奥马哈的先知连续三个季度购买这家消费巨头的股票</h2>
</div><p>Though Warren Buffett has, collectively, sold $174.4 billion more in stocks than he's purchased between Oct. 1, 2022 and March 31, 2025, he's found a couple of special businesses worth piling into. One of those premier companies is restaurant chain <strong>Domino's Pizza</strong>(DPZ -0.55%), which has soared more than 7,400% since its July 2004 initial public offering (IPO), including dividends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管沃伦·巴菲特在 2022 年 10 月 1 日至 2025 年 3 月 31 日期间，累计卖出股票的金额比购买的多出 1744 亿美元，但他发现了几家值得大量投资的特殊企业。其中一家顶级公司是餐饮连锁店 <strong>达美乐比萨</strong>（DPZ -0.55%），自 2004 年 7 月首次公开募股（IPO）以来，其股价已上涨超过 7400%，包括分红。</p>
</div><p>At the midpoint of 2024, Berkshire Hathaway didn't own a single share of Domino's Pizza. Since then, the Oracle of Omaha has overseen the purchase of:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年中期，伯克希尔哈撒韦并未持有达美乐比萨的任何股份。从那时起，奥马哈的先知监督了以下购买：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Q3 2024</strong>: 1,277,256 shares</li>
<li><strong>Q4 2024</strong>: 1,104,744 shares</li>
<li><strong>Q1 2025</strong>: 238,613 shares (2,620,613 total shares held)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>2024 年第三季度</strong>：1,277,256 股</li>
<li><strong>2024 年第四季度</strong>：1,104,744 股</li>
<li><strong>2025 年第一季度</strong>：238,613 股（总持股 2,620,613 股）</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Buffett doesn't enter billion-dollar stakes by accident. His fascination with Domino's Pizza likely has to do with its ability to meet or exceed growth initiatives over an extended period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特并不是偶然进入十亿美元的投资。他对达美乐比萨的兴趣可能与其在较长时间内实现或超越增长目标的能力有关。</p>
</div><p>The newest five-year plan laid out by Domino's management, known as &#34;Hungry for MORE,&#34; prioritizes innovation through the use of artificial intelligence and supply chain improvements. There's also added focus on the company's franchisees and the responsibility they hold in building up the value of the brand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>达美乐管理层提出的最新五年计划，名为 “渴望更多”，优先考虑通过人工智能和供应链改进来推动创新。还特别关注公司的特许经营商及其在提升品牌价值方面的责任。</p>
</div><p>For instance, 2024 marked the 31st consecutive year of same-store sales growth for Domino's international locations. Organic sales wouldn't grow overseas with such consistency if the company's brand messaging wasn't hitting home with consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，2024 年是达美乐国际门店连续第 31 年实现同店销售增长。如果公司的品牌传播没有打动消费者，海外的有机销售不会如此持续增长。</p>
</div><p>Something else Buffett probably appreciates is the trust Domino's Pizza has built up with its consumer base. In the late 2000s, Domino's kicked off a <em>mea culpa</em> campaign where it admitted its pizza was subpar and vowed to do better. Though this type of advertising campaign doesn't always work, the transparency Domino's has demonstrated over the last 15-plus years has resonated with its customers and kept many loyal to the brand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特可能还欣赏的是达美乐比萨与其消费者基础建立的信任。在 2000 年代末，达美乐发起了一场自我反省的宣传活动，承认其比萨质量不佳，并承诺会做得更好。尽管这种类型的广告活动并不总是有效，但达美乐在过去 15 年中展现的透明度与其客户产生了共鸣，并使许多人对该品牌保持忠诚。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Domino's Pizza has increased its base annual dividend for more than a decade and occasionally repurchases its own stock. Berkshire's billionaire investor tends to be a huge fan of businesses that reward/incent their long-term shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，达美乐比萨已经连续十多年提高其基础年度股息，并偶尔回购自己的股票。巴菲特这位亿万富翁投资者通常非常喜欢那些奖励/激励其长期股东的企业。</p>
</div><p>The only knock against Domino's Pizza is that its stock isn't cheap at 24 times forward-year earnings. However, Buffett has a keen eye for consumer behaviors and must like what he sees from Domino's Hungry for MORE strategic growth plan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对达美乐比萨唯一的批评是，其股票以 24 倍的未来年度收益率并不便宜。然而，巴菲特对消费者行为有敏锐的洞察力，必定对达美乐的 “渴望更多” 战略增长计划感到满意。</p>
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Billionaire Warren Buffett Sold 67% of Berkshire's Stake in Apple and Has Loaded Up On a Consumer Favorite That's Rallied 7,400% Since Its IPO

- 巴菲特自 1960 年代中期以来表现优于华尔街，BRK.A 累计回报达 5,732,279%。
- 自 2022 年 10 月以来，巴菲特出售了超过 615 百万股苹果股票，持股降至 300 百万股。
- 他连续三季度增持多米诺比萨，显示出对其长期增长潜力的信心。

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亿万富翁沃伦·巴菲特出售了伯克希尔哈撒韦在苹果公司 67% 的股份，并增持了一家自 IPO 以来股价上涨了 7400% 的消费者热门公司