<p>每个人都在谈论 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.42%)，这种情况已经持续了几年。这家人工智能（AI）巨头的股票在过去五年中上涨了 1600%，并在本月达到了一个巨大的里程碑，成为首个市值达到 4 万亿美元的公司。</p>
<p>但如果让我今天选择一只 AI 股票，我不会选择 Nvidia。并不是因为 Nvidia 不是一家优秀的公司，潜力巨大，而是因为还有另一只股票在我看来更具吸引力。</p>
<h2>AI 时刻</h2>
<p>老实说，我并没有在寻找 AI 股票。许多投资者希望通过确定哪些股票能够接触到 AI 趋势来获利。这不是我投资的方式；我有一些标准来评估股票，这些标准可以适用于任何行业，尽管类别多样化确实很重要。</p>
<p>但我理解投资 AI 的愿望，尤其是如果你是一个成长型投资者。AI 领域正在经历大量增长，预计未来还会有更多。Nvidia 本身报告了惊人的增长，包括最近一个季度收入同比增长 69%。根据 Grand View Research 的报告，AI 市场预计到 2030 年将以近 36% 的年复合增长率增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUyNjQvcGVyc29uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtY29tcHV0ZXItY2hpcC1pbi1hLWZhY3RvcnkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUyNjQvcGVyc29uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtY29tcHV0ZXItY2hpcC1pbi1hLWZhY3RvcnkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>然而，今天对 Nvidia 的看法不一，考虑到其高昂的交易价格。毫无疑问，它可以继续增长，但其高估值存在一定风险，根据某些指标，它可能显得昂贵。Nvidia 的股票交易价格与销售比率为 29，市盈率为 55。它的确值得一定的溢价，但这就是溢价。</p>
<p>考虑到其规模，Nvidia 提供给投资者的增长可能存在上限。如果 Nvidia 的股票翻倍，它的市值将达到 8 万亿美元。如果你在寻找一只能够让你资金翻倍的股票，Nvidia 可能无法像其他股票那样迅速实现。</p>
<h2>另一种投资 AI 的方式</h2>
<p>那么我会选择哪只股票呢？我最近购买了 <strong>台积电</strong>(TSM -2.12%) 的股票，所以这是一个简单的答案。同样，我并不是为了购买一只 AI 股票而买它。它因多种原因引起了我的注意，其中之一是它的增长前景，这与需要其产品的 AI 进步密切相关。然而，如果它仅仅是一只 AI 股票而没有其他机会，我就不会考虑它。</p>
<p>这就是 TSMC 作为股票看起来有吸引力的原因之一：它不是一只单一业务的公司。投资于纯 AI 股票存在风险，就像投资于任何依赖当前趋势的公司一样。它在 2023 年曾短暂出现在 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 的投资组合中，这可以让你感受到它的稳定性。当时，巴菲特称其为 “世界上管理最好的公司之一和最重要的公司之一。” 巴菲特通常不会给出卖出股票的理由，但他对 TSM 的看法是公开的。他担心其地理位置，看到了一些风险，这些风险在某种程度上今天已经显现出来。他说：“优秀的人和优秀的竞争地位以及一切，” 但 “我宁愿在美国找到它。”</p>
<p>我说它在某种程度上显现出这些风险，因为它似乎确实容易受到关税变化的影响，但它仍然继续展现出韧性和增长，并且也在采取措施使其全球工厂多样化，减少对关税的依赖。这对投资论点来说是个好消息。</p>
<p>根据 Statista 的数据，台积电与许多客户合作，负责全球半导体市场的 58%。作为当前的领导者，它在一个进入壁垒高的行业中具有竞争优势。由于它在多个领域拥有许多合作伙伴，因此它能够抵御任何一个领域的变化，例如 AI。</p>
<h2>顶级表现，巨大的增长潜力，合理的价格</h2>
<p>然后是你希望在优秀股票中看到的基本实力：稳健的增长，强劲的盈利能力和长期展望。</p>
<p>在第二季度，收入同比增长 39%，超出预期，净收入增长 61%。毛利率提高了 5.1 个百分点，营业利润率提高了 7.1 个百分点。包括 AI 在内的高性能计算部门占总收入的 60%，但除了汽车部门保持平稳外，所有部门都实现了增长。AI 可能会继续成为主要的增长驱动力，但它并没有把所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。</p>
<p>关于关税的担忧依然存在，可能会出现进口商在关税上调前急于获取芯片的需求激增。管理层指出，进口商负责关税，而不是 TSMC，并且它也在大力投资美国设施以抵消这些风险。</p>
<p>台积电的股票市盈率为 31，价格与销售比率为 13，这对于一只具有潜力的股票来说是合理的。如果你在寻找一只不仅仅是 AI 的顶级 AI 股票，台积电是一个很好的选择。</p>

台积电

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>这篇文章讨论了作者在人工智能领域投资时更倾向于台积电（Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing，TSMC）而非英伟达（Nvidia）。尽管英伟达经历了显著增长，并且是领先的人工智能公司，但其高估值带来了风险。相比之下，台积电则提供了强劲的增长潜力、盈利能力以及在多个领域的多元化，使其成为更具吸引力的选择。该公司在全球半导体市场中占据了重要份额，并且在关税问题上表现出韧性。台积电最近的财务表现显示出强劲的增长，特别是在高性能计算领域，包括人工智能</p>

<p>Everyone is talking about <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.42%), and it's been that way for a few years already. The artificial intelligence (AI) giant's stock gained 1,600% over the past five years, and it reached a tremendous milestone this month, becoming the first $4 trillion company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每个人都在谈论 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.42%)，这种情况已经持续了几年。这家人工智能（AI）巨头的股票在过去五年中上涨了 1600%，并在本月达到了一个巨大的里程碑，成为首个市值达到 4 万亿美元的公司。</p>
</div><p>But if I had to choose an AI stock to buy today, it wouldn't be Nvidia. Not because Nvidia isn't an excellent company with lots of potential, but because there's another stock that looks more compelling to me today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果让我今天选择一只 AI 股票，我不会选择 Nvidia。并不是因为 Nvidia 不是一家优秀的公司，潜力巨大，而是因为还有另一只股票在我看来更具吸引力。</p>
</div><h2>The AI moment</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AI 时刻</h2>
</div><p>To be honest, I haven't been looking for an AI stock. Many investors want to cash in on AI trends by determining which stocks offer exposure to AI. That's not how I invest; I have criteria I look to satisfy in stocks that could be in any industry, although category diversification is definitely important.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>老实说，我并没有在寻找 AI 股票。许多投资者希望通过确定哪些股票能够接触到 AI 趋势来获利。这不是我投资的方式；我有一些标准来评估股票，这些标准可以适用于任何行业，尽管类别多样化确实很重要。</p>
</div><p>But I understand the desire to invest in AI, especially if you're a growth investor. There's tons of growth happening in AI, with a lot more expected. Nvidia itself is reporting fabulous increases, including a 69% rise in revenue year over year in its most recent quarter. According to Grand View Research, the AI market is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate of nearly 36% through 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但我理解投资 AI 的愿望，尤其是如果你是一个成长型投资者。AI 领域正在经历大量增长，预计未来还会有更多。Nvidia 本身报告了惊人的增长，包括最近一个季度收入同比增长 69%。根据 Grand View Research 的报告，AI 市场预计到 2030 年将以近 36% 的年复合增长率增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUyNjQvcGVyc29uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtY29tcHV0ZXItY2hpcC1pbi1hLWZhY3RvcnkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825264%2Fperson-looking-at-computer-chip-in-a-factory.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>However, there are mixed views on Nvidia today, trading as high as it is. There seems to be little doubt that it can continue to grow, but there's some risk in its sky-high value, and according to certain metrics, it could be expensive. Nvidia stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 29 and a P/E ratio of 55. It's worth a certain premium, but premium it is.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，今天对 Nvidia 的看法不一，考虑到其高昂的交易价格。毫无疑问，它可以继续增长，但其高估值存在一定风险，根据某些指标，它可能显得昂贵。Nvidia 的股票交易价格与销售比率为 29，市盈率为 55。它的确值得一定的溢价，但这就是溢价。</p>
</div><p>There also may be a ceiling on just how much growth it offers investors, considering its size. If Nvidia stock doubles, it will reach $8 trillion in market cap. If you're looking for a stock that can double your money, Nvidia may not be able to do that as quickly as other stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到其规模，Nvidia 提供给投资者的增长可能存在上限。如果 Nvidia 的股票翻倍，它的市值将达到 8 万亿美元。如果你在寻找一只能够让你资金翻倍的股票，Nvidia 可能无法像其他股票那样迅速实现。</p>
</div><h2>Another way to play AI</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>另一种投资 AI 的方式</h2>
</div><p>So which stock would I choose instead? I recently bought shares of <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM -2.12%), so that's an easy answer. Again, I didn't buy it to buy an AI stock. It stood out to me for a variety of reasons, one of which is its growth prospects, and that's tied to advances in AI that require its products. If, however, it was only an AI stock and didn't have other opportunities, I would not have considered it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么我会选择哪只股票呢？我最近购买了 <strong>台积电</strong>(TSM -2.12%) 的股票，所以这是一个简单的答案。同样，我并不是为了购买一只 AI 股票而买它。它因多种原因引起了我的注意，其中之一是它的增长前景，这与需要其产品的 AI 进步密切相关。然而，如果它仅仅是一只 AI 股票而没有其他机会，我就不会考虑它。</p>
</div><p>So that's one reason TSMC looks attractive as a stock: It's not a one-trick pony. There are risks in investing in pure-play AI stocks like there are risks in investing in any company that relies on a current trend for its business. It was briefly in the <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> portfolio in 2023, which can give you a sense of its stability. At the time, Buffett called it &#34;one of the best-managed companies and [most] important companies in the world.&#34; Buffett doesn't usually give reasons for selling a stock, but he was open about his take on TSM. He was worried about its location, seeing risks that have to some degree played out today. &#34;Marvelous people and marvelous competitive position and everything,&#34; he said, &#34;[but] I'd rather find it in the United States.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是 TSMC 作为股票看起来有吸引力的原因之一：它不是一只单一业务的公司。投资于纯 AI 股票存在风险，就像投资于任何依赖当前趋势的公司一样。它在 2023 年曾短暂出现在 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 的投资组合中，这可以让你感受到它的稳定性。当时，巴菲特称其为 “世界上管理最好的公司之一和最重要的公司之一。” 巴菲特通常不会给出卖出股票的理由，但他对 TSM 的看法是公开的。他担心其地理位置，看到了一些风险，这些风险在某种程度上今天已经显现出来。他说：“优秀的人和优秀的竞争地位以及一切，” 但 “我宁愿在美国找到它。”</p>
</div><p>I say it played out that way to some degree because it does seem to be susceptible to changes in tariffs, but it has continued to demonstrate resilience and growth nonetheless, and it's also taking action to diversify its global factories and have less exposure to tariffs. That's a thumbs-up for the investing thesis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我说它在某种程度上显现出这些风险，因为它似乎确实容易受到关税变化的影响，但它仍然继续展现出韧性和增长，并且也在采取措施使其全球工厂多样化，减少对关税的依赖。这对投资论点来说是个好消息。</p>
</div><p>TSMC works with many clients and is responsible for 58% of the global semiconductor market, according to Statista. As the current leader, it has an edge against the competition in an industry with high barriers to entry. Since it has many partners in many spaces, it's protected against changes in any one of them, like AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Statista 的数据，台积电与许多客户合作，负责全球半导体市场的 58%。作为当前的领导者，它在一个进入壁垒高的行业中具有竞争优势。由于它在多个领域拥有许多合作伙伴，因此它能够抵御任何一个领域的变化，例如 AI。</p>
</div><h2>Top performance, huge growth potential, low price</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>顶级表现，巨大的增长潜力，合理的价格</h2>
</div><p>Then there's the baseline strength you want to see in a great stock: solid growth, robust profitability, and a long-term outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后是你希望在优秀股票中看到的基本实力：稳健的增长，强劲的盈利能力和长期展望。</p>
</div><p>In the second quarter, revenue rose 39% year over year, topping estimates, and net income was up 61%. Gross margin improved by 5.1 percentage points, and operating margin by 7.1 percentage points. The high-performance computing segment, which includes AI, increased to 60% of the total, but all of its segments enjoyed growth except for automotive, which remained flat. AI is likely to remain the major growth driver for now, but it doesn't have all of its eggs in one basket.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第二季度，收入同比增长 39%，超出预期，净收入增长 61%。毛利率提高了 5.1 个百分点，营业利润率提高了 7.1 个百分点。包括 AI 在内的高性能计算部门占总收入的 60%，但除了汽车部门保持平稳外，所有部门都实现了增长。AI 可能会继续成为主要的增长驱动力，但它并没有把所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。</p>
</div><p>There are continued concerns about tariffs, and there may be a surge in demand for importers to get chips before tariffs are raised. Management has pointed out that importers are responsible for tariffs, not TSMC, and it's also heavily investing in U.S. facilities to offset these risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于关税的担忧依然存在，可能会出现进口商在关税上调前急于获取芯片的需求激增。管理层指出，进口商负责关税，而不是 TSMC，并且它也在大力投资美国设施以抵消这些风险。</p>
</div><p>Taiwan Semiconductor stock trades at a P/E ratio of 31 and a price-to-sales ratio of 13, which is reasonable for a stock with its potential. If you're looking for a top AI stock that's more than just AI, Taiwan Semiconductor is a great choice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电的股票市盈率为 31，价格与销售比率为 13，这对于一只具有潜力的股票来说是合理的。如果你在寻找一只不仅仅是 AI 的顶级 AI 股票，台积电是一个很好的选择。</p>
</div>

If I Could Load Up on Any Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock, It Would Be This One (Hint: It's Not Nvidia)

- Nvidia 股票在过去五年上涨 1,600%，成为首个市值 4 万亿美元的公司。  
- 但作者更看好台积电，认为其增长潜力更大，且不单依赖 AI。  
- 台积电在全球半导体市场占有 58% 的份额，第二季度收入同比增长 39%。

如果我能大量投资于任何人工智能（AI）股票，我会选择这只股票（提示：不是英伟达）