<p>十年前，许多投资者会嘲笑将 10,000 美元投资于 <strong>比特币</strong>（BTC 0.60%）并将其变成 100,000 美元的想法。今天，这种想法不再那么荒谬。比特币，世界上最有价值的加密货币，超出了所有预期。它在多次巨大的抛售中幸存下来。最近，它的价格飙升至 123,000 美元，创下新高。</p>
<p>现在，金融顾问们常常表示，将少量资本分配到典型的多资产投资组合中的比特币是可以接受的。在如此强劲的势头下，10,000 美元的比特币投资能否在 2030 年前增长十倍，变成 100,000 美元？</p>
<h2>对某些人来说，答案是肯定的</h2>
<p>今年，比特币已经脱离了其他领域，并且表现优于大多数其他加密市场。许多投资者现在将比特币及其 2100 万枚的有限供应视为一种数字黄金，因此成为对抗通货膨胀的一种方式。虽然这一点仍在争论中，但它已成为比许多投资者可能认为的更广泛接受的理论。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUyNzAvYm9hcmRyb29tLTIuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUyNzAvYm9hcmRyb29tLTIuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>随着美国政府债务的不断增加以及对国家财政问题的关注加大，比特币和黄金等资产大幅上涨，提供了一种独特的多样化方式，尤其是如果比特币被更广泛地认知为数字黄金。</p>
<p>唐纳德·特朗普总统的选举胜利及其支持加密货币的政府只为这一趋势增添了动力。政府任命了支持加密货币的内阁成员，提出了旨在澄清监管灰色地带的支持加密货币的立法，甚至计划建立美国战略比特币储备和数字资产储备。</p>
<p>现在的问题是，在如此大幅上涨之后，比特币能否从这里继续上涨，将 10,000 美元变成 100,000 美元？如果你问一些行业内更为知名的看涨者，答案肯定是肯定的。</p>
<p>Ark Invest 的凯西·伍德长期以来表示，她认为比特币到 2030 年可能会达到 150 万美元。但在过去一年半的看涨情景中，她将价格预期提高到了 380 万美元。</p>
<p>伍德认为，更清晰的监管制度将推动机构投资者的兴趣，从而推动比特币价格上涨。伍德之前曾表示，如果所有机构投资基金将 5% 的资产投入比特币，尽管这确实是一个巨大的数字，她可以看到比特币价格上涨到数百万美元。虽然我不确定目前机构比特币持有量的具体数字，但比特币国库公司的数量确实显著增加，这些公司从公共市场筹集资金用于购买加密货币。</p>
<p>说到比特币国库公司，<strong>MicroStrategy</strong>（现以 Strategy 名义运营）的执行主席迈克尔·塞勒一直是比特币的坚定信仰者。</p>
<p>塞勒在今年早些时候的一次比特币会议上表示，他认为比特币的价格将在 2046 年达到 2100 万美元：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>2100 万枚硬币在 21 年内以 2100 万美元的价格出售。人们问，网络将如何增长？它将在 21 年内以 21% 的速度增长。波动性将是 21。你需要记住的唯一数字就是 21。</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>你可以合理期待什么？</h2>
<p>显然，如果塞勒或伍德是对的，投资者将在十年结束时轻松将 10,000 美元变成 100,000 美元。然而，投资者应该记住，伍德和塞勒是永久看涨者，这意味着他们将始终支持比特币。他们的数学，尤其是塞勒的，似乎充其量只是草率估算。</p>
<p>我不会过于关注长期比特币价格目标。尽管比特币的波动性可能在下降，但它仍然是一种非常波动的资产。然而，日益增长的接受度似乎是不可否认的，因此我确实认为投资者可以拥有比特币并获得良好的长期回报。无论比特币是否最终成为数字黄金，投资者多年来错过了一个简单的比特币概念，正如 Coatue Management 的创始人菲利普·拉丰所说：&#34;只要其他人认为它有价值，它就会随着时间的推移而变得更有价值。&#34;</p>

MSTR

<p>根据一些行业专家的说法，1 万美元的比特币投资到 2030 年可能会增长到 10 万美元。比特币超出了预期，最近达到了超过 12.3 万美元的历史新高。金融顾问现在建议将投资组合的一部分分配给比特币，视其为对抗通货膨胀的对冲工具。像 Cathie Wood 和 Michael Saylor 这样的知名人物预测比特币将大幅上涨，估计价格分别可能达到 380 万美元和 2100 万美元。然而，由于比特币固有的波动性，投资者应保持谨慎</p>

<p>A decade ago, many investors would have laughed at the idea of turning $10,000 into $100,000 by investing in <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC 0.60%). Today, not so much. Bitcoin, the world's most valuable cryptocurrency, has surpassed all expectations. It has survived huge sell-offs on numerous occasions. Recently, it rocketed past $123,000, a new all-time high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十年前，许多投资者会嘲笑将 10,000 美元投资于 <strong>比特币</strong>（BTC 0.60%）并将其变成 100,000 美元的想法。今天，这种想法不再那么荒谬。比特币，世界上最有价值的加密货币，超出了所有预期。它在多次巨大的抛售中幸存下来。最近，它的价格飙升至 123,000 美元，创下新高。</p>
</div><p>It's now not uncommon for financial advisors to say it's fine to allocate a small portion of capital in the typical multi-asset portfolio to Bitcoin. With so much momentum, can a $10,000 investment in Bitcoin increase 10-fold and turn into $100,000 by 2030?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，金融顾问们常常表示，将少量资本分配到典型的多资产投资组合中的比特币是可以接受的。在如此强劲的势头下，10,000 美元的比特币投资能否在 2030 年前增长十倍，变成 100,000 美元？</p>
</div><h2>For some, the answer is a definitive yes</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对某些人来说，答案是肯定的</h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin has broken away from the rest of the sector this year and outperformed most of the rest of the crypto market. Many investors now view Bitcoin and its finite supply of 21 million tokens as a form of digital gold and therefore a way to hedge inflation. While the jury is still out on that point, it has become a much more widely accepted thesis than many investors likely believed possible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年，比特币已经脱离了其他领域，并且表现优于大多数其他加密市场。许多投资者现在将比特币及其 2100 万枚的有限供应视为一种数字黄金，因此成为对抗通货膨胀的一种方式。虽然这一点仍在争论中，但它已成为比许多投资者可能认为的更广泛接受的理论。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUyNzAvYm9hcmRyb29tLTIuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825270%2Fboardroom-2.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>With the growing pile of debt held by the U.S. government and more of a spotlight on the country's fiscal concerns, assets like Bitcoin and gold have surged, offering a unique form of diversification, especially if Bitcoin becomes more universally known as digital gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着美国政府债务的不断增加以及对国家财政问题的关注加大，比特币和黄金等资产大幅上涨，提供了一种独特的多样化方式，尤其是如果比特币被更广泛地认知为数字黄金。</p>
</div><p>President Donald Trump's election victory and his pro-crypto administration have only added fuel to the fire. The administration has appointed cabinet members that support cryptocurrencies, proposed pro-crypto legislation intended to clarify regulatory gray areas, and even planned the creation of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and digital asset stockpile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>唐纳德·特朗普总统的选举胜利及其支持加密货币的政府只为这一趋势增添了动力。政府任命了支持加密货币的内阁成员，提出了旨在澄清监管灰色地带的支持加密货币的立法，甚至计划建立美国战略比特币储备和数字资产储备。</p>
</div><p>Now, the question is, after such a big run, can Bitcoin rise from here and turn $10,000 into $100,000? Well, if you ask some of the more preeminent bulls in the industry, the answer would be a definite yes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在的问题是，在如此大幅上涨之后，比特币能否从这里继续上涨，将 10,000 美元变成 100,000 美元？如果你问一些行业内更为知名的看涨者，答案肯定是肯定的。</p>
</div><p>Cathie Wood of Ark Invest has long said she could see Bitcoin hitting $1.5 million by 2030. But her bull case scenario during the past year and a half has put the price as high as $3.8 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ark Invest 的凯西·伍德长期以来表示，她认为比特币到 2030 年可能会达到 150 万美元。但在过去一年半的看涨情景中，她将价格预期提高到了 380 万美元。</p>
</div><p>Wood believes a clearer regulatory regime will drive institutional interest, which will in turn drive the price of Bitcoin higher. Wood has previously said that if all institutional investment funds place 5% of their assets in Bitcoin, a huge amount to be sure, she could see Bitcoin rising into the millions. While I'm not sure what the count is when it comes to institutional Bitcoin ownership, there has certainly been a significant increase in Bitcoin treasury companies, which raise capital from the public markets that they use to buy the crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伍德认为，更清晰的监管制度将推动机构投资者的兴趣，从而推动比特币价格上涨。伍德之前曾表示，如果所有机构投资基金将 5% 的资产投入比特币，尽管这确实是一个巨大的数字，她可以看到比特币价格上涨到数百万美元。虽然我不确定目前机构比特币持有量的具体数字，但比特币国库公司的数量确实显著增加，这些公司从公共市场筹集资金用于购买加密货币。</p>
</div><p>Speaking of Bitcoin treasury companies, Michael Saylor, the executive chairman of <strong>MicroStrategy</strong>(now doing business as Strategy), the largest Bitcoin-treasury company, has always been a big believer in Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>说到比特币国库公司，<strong>MicroStrategy</strong>（现以 Strategy 名义运营）的执行主席迈克尔·塞勒一直是比特币的坚定信仰者。</p>
</div><p>Saylor said earlier this year at a Bitcoin conference that he sees the price of Bitcoin rising all the way to $21 million by 2046:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>塞勒在今年早些时候的一次比特币会议上表示，他认为比特币的价格将在 2046 年达到 2100 万美元：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Twenty one million coins at a $21 million price in 21 years. And people ask, how's the network going to grow? It's going to be growing at 21% in 21 years. The volatility is going to be 21. The only number you need to remember is the number 21.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>2100 万枚硬币在 21 年内以 2100 万美元的价格出售。人们问，网络将如何增长？它将在 21 年内以 21% 的速度增长。波动性将是 21。你需要记住的唯一数字就是 21。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>What can you reasonably expect?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你可以合理期待什么？</h2>
</div><p>Obviously, if Saylor or Wood are right, investors will easily be able to turn $10,000 into $100,000 by the end of the decade. However, investors should keep in mind that Wood and Saylor are perma-bulls, meaning they are always going to be Bitcoin advocates. And their math, especially Saylor's, seems like napkin math at best.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>显然，如果塞勒或伍德是对的，投资者将在十年结束时轻松将 10,000 美元变成 100,000 美元。然而，投资者应该记住，伍德和塞勒是永久看涨者，这意味着他们将始终支持比特币。他们的数学，尤其是塞勒的，似乎充其量只是草率估算。</p>
</div><p>I wouldn't read too much into long-term Bitcoin price targets. Although Bitcoin's volatility may be on the decline, it's still a very volatile asset. However, growing acceptance does seem undeniable, so I do think investors can own Bitcoin and generate good long-term returns. Regardless of whether Bitcoin turns out to be digital gold, there is a simple concept to Bitcoin that investors have missed over the years, as stated by Coatue Management's founder Philippe Laffont: &#34;As long as other people think it's valuable, it gets more valuable over time.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不会过于关注长期比特币价格目标。尽管比特币的波动性可能在下降，但它仍然是一种非常波动的资产。然而，日益增长的接受度似乎是不可否认的，因此我确实认为投资者可以拥有比特币并获得良好的长期回报。无论比特币是否最终成为数字黄金，投资者多年来错过了一个简单的比特币概念，正如 Coatue Management 的创始人菲利普·拉丰所说：&#34;只要其他人认为它有价值，它就会随着时间的推移而变得更有价值。&#34;</p>
</div>

一万美元投资比特币能否在 2030 年增值至十万美元？