<p>世界上最重要的公司之一将在 7 月 31 日公布财报。<strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 0.46%）——iPhone、Apple Watch、Air Pods 等产品的制造商——将为投资者提供 2025 年第二季度的财务更新。在过去五年中，股票价格飙升，但在 2025 年最近遭遇了一些困难，年初至今（YTD）股价下跌了 14%，原因是对增长放缓和美国对其他国家实施关税的担忧。</p>
<p>2025 年对苹果来说是一个关键年份，因为它试图寻找新的增长方式。这是否意味着你应该在 7 月 31 日财报公布前买入或卖出股票？查看数据后，答案显而易见。</p>
<h2>与同行保持增长的困难</h2>
<p>毫无疑问，iPhone 是有史以来最盈利的产品之一，但它在全球年销售额方面正逐渐走向成熟。定价能力可以帮助这款每年 2000 亿美元的产品在未来几年中勉强实现一些增长，但客户的升级周期不断延长将始终对产品增长构成持续的阻力。新款手机与旧款相似，几乎没有技术创新来刺激客户升级到最新设备。</p>
<p>iPhone 占苹果整体收入的一半。iPhone 收入的停滞——自 2021 年以来没有增长——是苹果整体收入在过去几年几乎没有增长的原因。苹果正在寻找下一个重磅计算产品。去年，它推出了 Apple Vision Pro，一款售价 3000 美元的混合现实头显。如今，显然 Vision Pro 对公司来说是一次彻底的失败，实际销售的头显非常少。是的，苹果的服务部门显示出稳定的增长，在过去 12 个月中整体收入达到了创纪录的 1000 亿美元，但对于市值达到 3.1 万亿美元的股票来说，这不会带来巨大的推动。</p>
<p>苹果需要一款新的硬件设备来将其业务提升到一个新的水平。除非发生这种情况，否则它将继续落后于其大型科技同行。通过对比苹果、<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>字母表</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 在过去五年的收入增长，可以看出这一点。苹果的收入增长了 46%，自 2022 年以来没有增长，而微软增长了 83.5%，亚马逊增长了 86.9%，字母表增长了 109.5%。其他大型科技公司正在将苹果甩在身后。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0b9a66d2ae94947a735253790e721d54.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="490" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0b9a66d2ae94947a735253790e721d54.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 收入（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<h2>中国的潜在复苏</h2>
<p>苹果面临的另一个阻力是中国，那里本土科技公司和智能手机制造商正在抢占 iPhone 的市场份额。自 2022 年 3 月以来，该国的收入一直在下降，这令人失望，因为它曾是苹果的重要增长引擎。然而，第三方分析师估计，苹果在第二季度的中国收入同比增长了 8%，这可能意味着情况在今年有所好转。</p>
<p>从长远来看，投资者很难对苹果在中国持乐观态度。该国有一个&#34;中国制造 2025&#34;的计划，正在降低对西方品牌的需求。苹果在中国作为品牌具有很强的吸引力，但很难与这样的政府阻力抗衡。此外，美国与中国之间的关税和贸易战，苹果可能会被卷入其中，因为它在中国进行大部分制造。这是投资者在购买苹果股票之前需要考虑的风险。</p>
<p>其他国家可能会在一定程度上支持收入增长，例如印度及其庞大的人口。然而，这些国家目前仅占苹果销售的一小部分，未来几年不会对其合并财务产生影响。公司的增长将主要依赖于北美和中国。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3MTIvd29tYW4tbG9va2luZy1hdC1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3MTIvd29tYW4tbG9va2luZy1hdC1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>在财报公布前，你应该买入还是卖出苹果股票？</h2>
<p>在今天的市值下，苹果的市盈率（P/E）为 33。这远高于其长期平均水平，甚至高于一些收入增长更快的大型科技同行，如字母表。</p>
<p>展望未来，除了提高 iPhone 价格和逐步增加服务收入外，很难找到苹果增长的理由。它在人工智能（AI）方面几乎没有存在感，没有云计算战略，也未能在新的计算范式中取得突破。在接下来的几年里，投资者似乎将被困在同样的老苹果及其 iPhone、计算机和配件产品中。</p>
<p>尽管这是世界上最好的品牌之一，但投资者应该在苹果第二季度财报公布前卖出苹果股票。这只股票几乎没有增长的空间。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>苹果公司定于 7 月 31 日公布 2025 年第二季度财报，当前股价年初至今已下跌 14%，主要由于增长放缓和关税影响。iPhone 占苹果收入的一半，自 2021 年以来增长停滞，公司在现有产品之外的创新面临困难。尽管其服务部门正在增长，但仍不足以推动显著的股价增长。分析师建议中国市场可能会出现复苏，但由于政府政策和竞争，长期增长仍然不确定。由于市盈率高达 33，投资者在寻找苹果的增长催化剂时面临挑战</p>

<p>One of the most important companies in the world reports earnings on July 31. <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.46%) -- maker of the iPhone, Apple Watch, Air Pods, and more -- is set to give investors another financial update for the second quarter of 2025. The stock has soared in the last five years but has recently hit a rough patch in 2025, with shares down 14% year to date (YTD) due to concerns over slowing growth and tariffs implemented by the United States on other nations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>世界上最重要的公司之一将在 7 月 31 日公布财报。<strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 0.46%）——iPhone、Apple Watch、Air Pods 等产品的制造商——将为投资者提供 2025 年第二季度的财务更新。在过去五年中，股票价格飙升，但在 2025 年最近遭遇了一些困难，年初至今（YTD）股价下跌了 14%，原因是对增长放缓和美国对其他国家实施关税的担忧。</p>
</div><p>2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for Apple as it tries to find new ways to grow. Does that mean you should buy or sell the stock before the July 31 earnings? The answer is clear when looking at the numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年对苹果来说是一个关键年份，因为它试图寻找新的增长方式。这是否意味着你应该在 7 月 31 日财报公布前买入或卖出股票？查看数据后，答案显而易见。</p>
</div><h2>Struggles to keep growing with peers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>与同行保持增长的困难</h2>
</div><p>It is undoubtedly one of the most profitable products ever, but the iPhone is now hitting maturity in relation to its annual sales around the globe. Pricing power can help the $200 billion-per-year product eke out a little bit of growth in the coming years, but the fact that upgrade cycles for customers keep expanding will be a consistent headwind for product growth. New phones are now similar to older models, with little technological innovation to spur customers to upgrade to the latest devices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫无疑问，iPhone 是有史以来最盈利的产品之一，但它在全球年销售额方面正逐渐走向成熟。定价能力可以帮助这款每年 2000 亿美元的产品在未来几年中勉强实现一些增长，但客户的升级周期不断延长将始终对产品增长构成持续的阻力。新款手机与旧款相似，几乎没有技术创新来刺激客户升级到最新设备。</p>
</div><p>The iPhone makes up half of Apple's overall revenue. Stagnation in iPhone revenue -- which hasn't grown since 2021 -- is why Apple's overall revenue has barely grown in the last few years. It is searching for the next blockbuster computing product. Last year, it debuted the Apple Vision Pro, a $3,000 mixed reality headset. Today, it is clear that the Vision Pro has been a total flop for the company, with very few headsets actually sold. Yes, Apple's services division is showing steady growth, hitting a record $100 billion in overall revenue in the last 12 months, but it is not going to be a huge needle mover for a stock with a market cap of $3.1 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>iPhone 占苹果整体收入的一半。iPhone 收入的停滞——自 2021 年以来没有增长——是苹果整体收入在过去几年几乎没有增长的原因。苹果正在寻找下一个重磅计算产品。去年，它推出了 Apple Vision Pro，一款售价 3000 美元的混合现实头显。如今，显然 Vision Pro 对公司来说是一次彻底的失败，实际销售的头显非常少。是的，苹果的服务部门显示出稳定的增长，在过去 12 个月中整体收入达到了创纪录的 1000 亿美元，但对于市值达到 3.1 万亿美元的股票来说，这不会带来巨大的推动。</p>
</div><p>Apple needs a new hardware device to take its business to the next level. Unless that happens, it will keep falling behind its big technology peers. We can see this by indexing revenue growth for Apple, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Amazon</strong> in the last five years. Apple's revenue is up 46% and hasn't grown since 2022, while Microsoft's is up 83.5%, Amazon's is up 86.9%, and Alphabet's is up 109.5%. The other big technology players are leaving Apple in the dust.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果需要一款新的硬件设备来将其业务提升到一个新的水平。除非发生这种情况，否则它将继续落后于其大型科技同行。通过对比苹果、<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>字母表</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 在过去五年的收入增长，可以看出这一点。苹果的收入增长了 46%，自 2022 年以来没有增长，而微软增长了 83.5%，亚马逊增长了 86.9%，字母表增长了 109.5%。其他大型科技公司正在将苹果甩在身后。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0b9a66d2ae94947a735253790e721d54.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0b9a66d2ae94947a735253790e721d54.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 收入（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Potential recovery in China</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中国的潜在复苏</h2>
</div><p>Another headwind for Apple has been China, where homegrown technology players and smartphone makers have been taking market share from iPhones. Revenue in the country has been in decline since March 2022, which is disappointing since it used to be such a big growth engine for Apple. However, things may be turning around this year, with third-party analysts estimating that China revenue grew 8% year over year for Apple in Q2.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果面临的另一个阻力是中国，那里本土科技公司和智能手机制造商正在抢占 iPhone 的市场份额。自 2022 年 3 月以来，该国的收入一直在下降，这令人失望，因为它曾是苹果的重要增长引擎。然而，第三方分析师估计，苹果在第二季度的中国收入同比增长了 8%，这可能意味着情况在今年有所好转。</p>
</div><p>Over the long term, it is hard for investors to be bullish on Apple in China. The country has a &#34;Made in China 2025&#34; mandate, which is driving down demand for Western brands. Apple has a fantastic pull as a brand in China, but it is hard to fight government headwinds like this. There is also the tariff and trade war between the United States and China, which Apple could end up being caught right in the middle of, since it does the majority of its manufacturing in China. This is a risk that investors need to consider before buying Apple stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从长远来看，投资者很难对苹果在中国持乐观态度。该国有一个&#34;中国制造 2025&#34;的计划，正在降低对西方品牌的需求。苹果在中国作为品牌具有很强的吸引力，但很难与这样的政府阻力抗衡。此外，美国与中国之间的关税和贸易战，苹果可能会被卷入其中，因为它在中国进行大部分制造。这是投资者在购买苹果股票之前需要考虑的风险。</p>
</div><p>Other countries may provide some level of support to revenue growth, such as India and its large population. However, these are only a tiny portion of Apple's sales today and won't affect its consolidated financials for many years. The company's growth will be driven by North America and China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他国家可能会在一定程度上支持收入增长，例如印度及其庞大的人口。然而，这些国家目前仅占苹果销售的一小部分，未来几年不会对其合并财务产生影响。公司的增长将主要依赖于北美和中国。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3MTIvd29tYW4tbG9va2luZy1hdC1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825712%2Fwoman-looking-at-phone.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy or sell Apple stock before earnings?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在财报公布前，你应该买入还是卖出苹果股票？</h2>
</div><p>At today's market cap, Apple trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 33. This is much higher than its long-term average, and even higher than some of its big technology peers like Alphabet that are growing revenue much faster.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今天的市值下，苹果的市盈率（P/E）为 33。这远高于其长期平均水平，甚至高于一些收入增长更快的大型科技同行，如字母表。</p>
</div><p>Looking toward the future, it is difficult to find reasons for Apple to grow besides raising prices on iPhones and incremental services revenue. It has shown zero presence in artificial intelligence (AI), has no cloud computing strategy, and has failed to leap ahead into new computing paradigms. For at least the next few years, it looks like investors will be stuck with the same old Apple and its iPhone, computer, and accessories products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，除了提高 iPhone 价格和逐步增加服务收入外，很难找到苹果增长的理由。它在人工智能（AI）方面几乎没有存在感，没有云计算战略，也未能在新的计算范式中取得突破。在接下来的几年里，投资者似乎将被困在同样的老苹果及其 iPhone、计算机和配件产品中。</p>
</div><p>Even though this is one of the best brands in the world, investors should sell Apple before its Q2 earnings report. There isn't much growth left to be had with this stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这是世界上最好的品牌之一，但投资者应该在苹果第二季度财报公布前卖出苹果股票。这只股票几乎没有增长的空间。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy or Sell Apple Stock Before July 31? The Answer May Surprise You

- 苹果公司将于 7 月 31 日发布 2025 年第二季度财报。  
- 由于 iPhone 收入停滞和市场竞争加剧，股价年初至今下跌 14%。  
- 投资者需谨慎，未来增长前景不明，建议在财报前卖出。

在 7 月 31 日之前，你是否应该买入或卖出苹果股票？这个答案可能会让你意外