<p>财报季正式来临，全球一些最大的公司将在接下来的几天内公布其季度财务报告。在这个财报季，我将关注的两只关键股票是 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 1.11%) 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -0.58%)，这两家公司都面临挑战。特斯拉在电动车销售中失去了市场份额，而苹果的增长因其旗舰 iPhone 在全球的成熟而放缓。</p>
<p>在接下来的几天内——特斯拉将在 7 月 23 日，苹果将在 7 月 31 日——这两家公司将公布其第二季度的财报，投资者高度警惕。在报告之前，这两家公司中是否有卖出的机会？</p>
<h2>苹果的停滞增长</h2>
<p>苹果在智能手机领域的主导地位毋庸置疑，这一类别是其在 2007 年推出 iPhone 时普及的，距今已近 20 年。如今，iPhone 硬件销售每年达到 2000 亿美元，软件和服务收入也在其上层叠加。尽管这仍然是一个很好的业务，但增长速度并不快。由于每年新设备之间的差异微乎其微，智能手机的升级购买正在减少（这意味着消费者不再频繁购买新型号）。这导致自 2022 年 COVID-19 消费热潮以来，苹果设备的销售停滞不前。</p>
<p>最终，苹果需要在计算硬件上迈出下一步，否则将面临技术上的落后。例如，它在增强现实和虚拟现实领域已经落后于 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>，后者每年销售数百万台新款基于眼镜的硬件。苹果试图通过 Vision Pro 耳机进入这一市场，但结果不佳，可能已经停产。</p>
<p>停滞的增长对苹果来说是一个担忧。它需要开发出巨大的、广受欢迎的产品，以推动其 4000 亿美元的收入基础。由于没有新产品在即，且在热门的人工智能市场的努力微薄，预测苹果的收入在未来几年将大幅快于通货膨胀是困难的。</p>
<p>在考虑股票估值时，这成为一个问题。目前，苹果的市盈率 (P/E) 为 33，这通常是高增长股票的收益比率。最终，苹果必须重新开始增长，否则将面临市盈率压缩和股价下跌的风险。这意味着你应该考虑在苹果即将公布第二季度财报之前卖出苹果股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3NTUvZXYtYXQtaG9tZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="455" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3NTUvZXYtYXQtaG9tZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>特斯拉的市场份额下降</h2>
<p>如果苹果的投资者需要担心停滞的增长，那么特斯拉的投资者面临的问题更为严重：销售下降。上个季度，特斯拉的汽车收入同比下降 20%，降至 140 亿美元。由于汽车制造部门固定杠杆的解除，利润的下滑幅度甚至比收入更大。过去 12 个月，运营收入比历史最高点下降了近 50%。</p>
<p>这一季度的前景也不乐观。特斯拉对客户的单位销售持续下滑，已报告第二季度交付量为 384,000 辆，而去年同期为 443,000 辆。该品牌在美国、欧洲和中国的市场份额正在被其他电动车初创企业和传统汽车制造商的竞争所侵蚀。</p>
<p>在美国，电动车的税收抵免即将到期，这将使客户购买特斯拉的成本增加。特斯拉被迫削减售价，这损害了其利润率。</p>
<p>尽管面临巨大挑战，特斯拉的股票仍以 179 的高市盈率交易。以 1 万亿美元的市值，它需要实现 400 亿美元或更多的净收入，才能获得一个相对合理的估值。在过去 12 个月中，它的收益为 64 亿美元，仅在短暂时间内达到了超过 100 亿美元的年化水平。特斯拉在短期内实现 400 亿美元的底线利润的可能性似乎不切实际。</p>
<p>我可以理解为何投资者在当前价格下应持有苹果股票的论点。但对于继续冒险持有特斯拉股票没有合理的理由。在第二季度财报发布之前，卖掉你的股份是明智的选择。</p>

<p>随着财报季的临近，投资者被建议在即将发布的第二季度财报之前考虑出售苹果和特斯拉的股票。由于智能手机升级放缓和增强现实领域的竞争，苹果面临增长停滞的问题，而特斯拉则面临汽车收入同比下降 20% 以及市场份额被竞争对手侵蚀的困境。两家公司都拥有较高的市盈率，这引发了对其估值的担忧。分析师指出，如果没有显著的增长，这两只股票在财报发布后可能会面临下行压力</p>

<p>Earnings season is officially upon us, and some of the biggest companies in the world are set to report their quarterly financials in the coming days. Two key stocks I will be watching this earnings season are <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 1.11%) and <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -0.58%), which are both hitting speed bumps. Tesla is losing market share in electric vehicle sales, while Apple's growth has slowed with the flagship iPhone maturing around the globe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>财报季正式来临，全球一些最大的公司将在接下来的几天内公布其季度财务报告。在这个财报季，我将关注的两只关键股票是 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 1.11%) 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -0.58%)，这两家公司都面临挑战。特斯拉在电动车销售中失去了市场份额，而苹果的增长因其旗舰 iPhone 在全球的成熟而放缓。</p>
</div><p>In the coming days -- July 23 for Tesla and July 31 for Apple -- the companies will report their second-quarter earnings, and investors are on high alert. Is either company a sell before their report?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在接下来的几天内——特斯拉将在 7 月 23 日，苹果将在 7 月 31 日——这两家公司将公布其第二季度的财报，投资者高度警惕。在报告之前，这两家公司中是否有卖出的机会？</p>
</div><h2>Apple's stagnant growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果的停滞增长</h2>
</div><p>Apple's dominance in smartphones is undeniable, a category it popularized by releasing the iPhone in 2007, almost 20 years ago. Today, iPhone hardware sales are at $200 billion annually, with a lot of software and services revenue layered on top. It is still a great business, but one that is not growing quickly. Smartphone upgrades are decreasing (meaning customers aren't buying new models as often) because of the little difference between new devices every passing year. This has caused a stagnation in Apple device sales since 2022 after the COVID-19 spending boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在智能手机领域的主导地位毋庸置疑，这一类别是其在 2007 年推出 iPhone 时普及的，距今已近 20 年。如今，iPhone 硬件销售每年达到 2000 亿美元，软件和服务收入也在其上层叠加。尽管这仍然是一个很好的业务，但增长速度并不快。由于每年新设备之间的差异微乎其微，智能手机的升级购买正在减少（这意味着消费者不再频繁购买新型号）。这导致自 2022 年 COVID-19 消费热潮以来，苹果设备的销售停滞不前。</p>
</div><p>Eventually, Apple will need to take the next step up in computing hardware or risk getting left behind technologically. For example, it is losing out so far in augmented and virtual reality to <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, which is selling millions of its new glasses-based hardware every year. Apple tried to enter this market with the Vision Pro headset, but it was a flop and has likely been discontinued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，苹果需要在计算硬件上迈出下一步，否则将面临技术上的落后。例如，它在增强现实和虚拟现实领域已经落后于 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>，后者每年销售数百万台新款基于眼镜的硬件。苹果试图通过 Vision Pro 耳机进入这一市场，但结果不佳，可能已经停产。</p>
</div><p>Stagnant growth is a concern for Apple. It needs to develop huge, widely bought products in order to move the needle for its $400 billion revenue base. With no products on the horizon and meager efforts in the hot AI market, it is hard to predict that Apple's revenue will grow substantially faster than inflation in the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>停滞的增长对苹果来说是一个担忧。它需要开发出巨大的、广受欢迎的产品，以推动其 4000 亿美元的收入基础。由于没有新产品在即，且在热门的人工智能市场的努力微薄，预测苹果的收入在未来几年将大幅快于通货膨胀是困难的。</p>
</div><p>This is a problem when looking at the stock's valuation. Today, Apple has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 33, which is an earnings ratio typically reserved for high-growth stocks. Eventually, Apple is going to have to start growing again or risk multiple compression and a falling share price. This means you should consider selling Apple stock before it soon reports Q2 earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考虑股票估值时，这成为一个问题。目前，苹果的市盈率 (P/E) 为 33，这通常是高增长股票的收益比率。最终，苹果必须重新开始增长，否则将面临市盈率压缩和股价下跌的风险。这意味着你应该考虑在苹果即将公布第二季度财报之前卖出苹果股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3NTUvZXYtYXQtaG9tZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825755%2Fev-at-home.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's declining market share</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的市场份额下降</h2>
</div><p>If Apple investors need to be worried about stagnant growth, then Tesla investors have an even worse issue: declining sales. Last quarter, Tesla's automotive revenue declined 20% year-over-year to $14 billion. Profits are moving in the wrong direction and even worse than revenue due to the fixed leverage unwinding in the automotive manufacturing division. Operating income is off close to 50% from all-time highs over the last 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果苹果的投资者需要担心停滞的增长，那么特斯拉的投资者面临的问题更为严重：销售下降。上个季度，特斯拉的汽车收入同比下降 20%，降至 140 亿美元。由于汽车制造部门固定杠杆的解除，利润的下滑幅度甚至比收入更大。过去 12 个月，运营收入比历史最高点下降了近 50%。</p>
</div><p>This quarter does not look promising, either. Tesla's unit sales to customers continue to slide and it already reported Q2 deliveries of 384,000 compared to 443,000 in the year-ago quarter. The brand is losing market share in the United States, Europe, and China to increasing competition among other electric vehicle upstarts and legacy automotive players.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一季度的前景也不乐观。特斯拉对客户的单位销售持续下滑，已报告第二季度交付量为 384,000 辆，而去年同期为 443,000 辆。该品牌在美国、欧洲和中国的市场份额正在被其他电动车初创企业和传统汽车制造商的竞争所侵蚀。</p>
</div><p>In the United States, tax credits for electric vehicles are expiring, which will make it more expensive for customers to buy a Tesla. It has been forced to slash its selling prices, which has hurt its profit margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国，电动车的税收抵免即将到期，这将使客户购买特斯拉的成本增加。特斯拉被迫削减售价，这损害了其利润率。</p>
</div><p>Even though it is struggling mightily, Tesla stock trades at a nosebleed P/E ratio of 179. At a market cap of $1 trillion, it will need to grow into net income of $40 billion or more just to get a somewhat reasonable valuation. It generated $6.4 billion in earnings over the last 12 months and only briefly hit an annualized rate of over $10 billion. The likelihood that Tesla achieves a bottom-line profit of $40 billion anytime soon seems far-fetched.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管面临巨大挑战，特斯拉的股票仍以 179 的高市盈率交易。以 1 万亿美元的市值，它需要实现 400 亿美元或更多的净收入，才能获得一个相对合理的估值。在过去 12 个月中，它的收益为 64 亿美元，仅在短暂时间内达到了超过 100 亿美元的年化水平。特斯拉在短期内实现 400 亿美元的底线利润的可能性似乎不切实际。</p>
</div><p>I can understand an argument for why an investor should hold Apple stock at today's prices. But there is no rational argument for continuing to risk your portfolio in Tesla shares. It would be prudent to sell your stake before this Q2 earnings report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我可以理解为何投资者在当前价格下应持有苹果股票的论点。但对于继续冒险持有特斯拉股票没有合理的理由。在第二季度财报发布之前，卖掉你的股份是明智的选择。</p>
</div>

Should You Sell These 2 Popular "Magnificent Seven" Stocks Before They Report Earnings?

- 苹果和特斯拉即将公布第二季度财报，投资者高度关注。  
- 苹果面临增长停滞，特斯拉销售下滑，市场份额减少。  
- 建议在财报前考虑出售苹果和特斯拉股票。

Motley Fool

苹果

特斯拉

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XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

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Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Apple Aapl ETF

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在这两只受欢迎的 “七大巨头” 股票公布财报之前，你是否应该卖掉它们？