<p>投资者可能不会将 <strong>奈飞</strong>(NFLX 1.91%) 视为十年前那种热门成长股，但尽管普遍认为它是一家成熟公司，这只股票在过去几年却一路高歌猛进。</p>
<p>在 2022 年股价暴跌后，公司经历了连续两个季度的用户流失，重新审视了战略，推出了广告层，尽管多年来一直表示不会这样做。它还加强了对密码共享的打击，并尝试了体育等现场活动。</p>
<p>因此，股票在过去三年中飙升，涨幅超过 500%，如下图所示。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9f824c45f5a88c0aad9c9e424f1541e5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9f824c45f5a88c0aad9c9e424f1541e5.png"/></p>
<p>NFLX 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>奈飞在未来三年内不太可能重复这一壮举，至少在没有重大新业务扩展的情况下，但翻倍似乎是一个合理的目标。它能做到吗？投资者在最新的财报中获得了一些线索。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3NDgvc3RyZWFtaW5nLXJlbW90ZS1pbi1mcm9udC1vZi10di5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3NDgvc3RyZWFtaW5nLXJlbW90ZS1pbi1mcm9udC1vZi10di5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>第二季度对观众来说是个成功，但对投资者却不然</h2>
<p>奈飞的股票在周五的第二季度财报发布后下跌了 5%。尽管数据强劲，但近期股价的飙升提高了市场对公司的预期。收入增长了 16%，达到 111 亿美元，创下四个季度以来的最快增长率，但结果基本符合预期。</p>
<p>该流媒体平台停止报告用户数量，因此不容易看出是什么推动了业务增长。管理层表示，增长是由用户增加、广告业务增长以及北美等市场的价格上涨共同推动的。公司现在在所有市场使用其专有的广告技术平台 Netflix Ads Suite，显示出它迅速将广告作为业务核心驱动因素的一部分。</p>
<p>得益于其订阅商业模式，公司的利润率随着业务增长而持续扩大，广告业务也可能促进了利润率的增长，因为它使公司能够以新的方式变现内容，并吸引那些不想为无广告层支付费用的预算有限的用户。运营利润率从一年前的 27.2% 扩大到 34.1%，每股收益（EPS）从 4.88 美元跃升至 7.19 美元，超出市场共识的 7.06 美元。</p>
<p>管理层警告称，随着内容支出增加，利润率将在下半年下降。例如，其第三季度的指导预期运营利润率为 31.5%，但公司也将全年指导从 435 亿至 445 亿美元上调至 448 亿至 452 亿美元。它现在预计货币中性运营利润率将扩大至 29.5%，高于之前预测的 29%。</p>
<p>随着广告引擎的起步，业务似乎正在全面开花。奈飞继续扩展其内容的广度，多个系列和电影在季度内吸引了超过 5000 万观众。</p>
<p>会员在上半年观看了 950 亿小时，增长了 1%，公司的本地内容战略也取得了成效，非英语内容现在占其观看量的三分之一以上。这些趋势都为未来三年的业务发展带来了良好前景。</p>
<h2>奈飞的股票能否达到 2500 美元？</h2>
<p>奈飞在过去三年的飙升主要归功于业务的改善，但它也受益于市盈率的扩张。你可以在下图中看到这一点，尽管这不包括最近的季度。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9f824c45f5a88c0aad9c9e424f1541e5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9f824c45f5a88c0aad9c9e424f1541e5.png"/></p>
<p>NFLX 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>考虑到第二季度的收益，奈飞的市盈率（P/E）将接近 50，但这仍然很昂贵，尤其是对于一只不久前被视为成熟的股票。</p>
<p>要让奈飞的股价翻倍，它可能需要凭借自身的实力来实现，正如周五财报后的抛售所示，尽管结果强劲。投资者似乎认为这只股票现在已经包含了足够的增长，这使得进一步的涨幅变得更加困难。</p>
<p>奈飞可以将每股收益翻倍，但可能需要超过三年的时间才能做到。不过，考虑到其两位数的收入增长、扩大的运营利润率以及向新业务扩展的潜力，在未来五年内每股收益翻倍似乎是一个合理的假设。</p>
<p>这只流媒体股票可能在 2028 年前翻倍，但必须超越已经很高的门槛。这并不容易。</p>

奈飞

<p>奈飞的股票在过去三年中上涨了超过 500%，尽管人们普遍认为它是一家成熟公司。最近发布的第二季度财报显示，收入增长了 16%，达到了 111 亿美元，但由于市场预期过高，财报发布后股价下跌了 5%。运营利润率从 27.2% 提高至 34.1%，每股收益上升至 7.19 美元。虽然奈飞通过广告和内容扩展来寻求增长，但到 2028 年将其股价翻倍将需要付出重大努力，因为当前估值较高，进一步的涨幅可能会面临挑战</p>

<p>Investors may not think of <strong>Netflix</strong>(NFLX 1.91%) as the hot growth stock it was a decade ago, but the stock has been on a warpath over the last few years, despite the broader perception that it's a mature company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者可能不会将 <strong>奈飞</strong>(NFLX 1.91%) 视为十年前那种热门成长股，但尽管普遍认为它是一家成熟公司，这只股票在过去几年却一路高歌猛进。</p>
</div><p>After the stock tumbled in 2022, following two straight quarters of subscriber declines, the company went back to the drawing board, launching an advertising tier after years of saying it wouldn't. It also cracked down on password-sharing and experimented with live events, like sports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2022 年股价暴跌后，公司经历了连续两个季度的用户流失，重新审视了战略，推出了广告层，尽管多年来一直表示不会这样做。它还加强了对密码共享的打击，并尝试了体育等现场活动。</p>
</div><p>As a result, the stock has skyrocketed, gaining more than 500% over the last three years as the chart below shows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，股票在过去三年中飙升，涨幅超过 500%，如下图所示。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9f824c45f5a88c0aad9c9e424f1541e5.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9f824c45f5a88c0aad9c9e424f1541e5.png"/></p>
<p>NFLX data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NFLX 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Netflix isn't going to repeat that feat over the next three years, at least without a major new expansion of the business, but a double seems like a reasonable goal. Can it get there? Investors just got some clues in its latest earnings report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奈飞在未来三年内不太可能重复这一壮举，至少在没有重大新业务扩展的情况下，但翻倍似乎是一个合理的目标。它能做到吗？投资者在最新的财报中获得了一些线索。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3NDgvc3RyZWFtaW5nLXJlbW90ZS1pbi1mcm9udC1vZi10di5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825748%2Fstreaming-remote-in-front-of-tv.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Q2 was a hit with viewers, but not investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>第二季度对观众来说是个成功，但对投资者却不然</h2>
</div><p>Netflix stock slipped 5% on the second-quarter report on Friday. The numbers were strong, but the recent surge in the share price has raised expectations for the company. Revenue was up 16% to $11.1 billion, marking its fastest growth rate in four quarters, but the result essentially matched estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奈飞的股票在周五的第二季度财报发布后下跌了 5%。尽管数据强劲，但近期股价的飙升提高了市场对公司的预期。收入增长了 16%，达到 111 亿美元，创下四个季度以来的最快增长率，但结果基本符合预期。</p>
</div><p>The streamer stopped reporting subscriber counts, so it's not as easy to see what's driving the business growth. Management said it was driven by a combination of subscriber additions, growth in the ad business, and price hikes in markets like North America. The company is now using its proprietary ad tech platform, Netflix Ads Suite, in all of its markets, showing it's rapidly embraced advertising as part of the core driver of its business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该流媒体平台停止报告用户数量，因此不容易看出是什么推动了业务增长。管理层表示，增长是由用户增加、广告业务增长以及北美等市场的价格上涨共同推动的。公司现在在所有市场使用其专有的广告技术平台 Netflix Ads Suite，显示出它迅速将广告作为业务核心驱动因素的一部分。</p>
</div><p>Thanks to its subscription business model, the company's profit margin continues to expand as the business grows, and the ad business is likely contributing to margin growth as it's allowed the company to monetize its content in a new way and attract budget-conscious subscribers who didn't want to pay for the ad-free tier. Operating margin expanded from 27.2% in the quarter a year ago to 34.1%, and earnings per share (EPS) jumped from $4.88 to $7.19, beating the consensus at $7.06.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>得益于其订阅商业模式，公司的利润率随着业务增长而持续扩大，广告业务也可能促进了利润率的增长，因为它使公司能够以新的方式变现内容，并吸引那些不想为无广告层支付费用的预算有限的用户。运营利润率从一年前的 27.2% 扩大到 34.1%，每股收益（EPS）从 4.88 美元跃升至 7.19 美元，超出市场共识的 7.06 美元。</p>
</div><p>Management warned that margins would fall in the second half of the year as content expenses grew. Its third-quarter guidance, for example, called for 31.5% operating margin, but the company also raised its full-year guidance from $43.5 billion-$44.5 billion to $44.8 billion-$45.2 billion. It now sees currency-neutral operating margin expanding to 29.5%, up from a previous forecast at 29%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层警告称，随着内容支出增加，利润率将在下半年下降。例如，其第三季度的指导预期运营利润率为 31.5%，但公司也将全年指导从 435 亿至 445 亿美元上调至 448 亿至 452 亿美元。它现在预计货币中性运营利润率将扩大至 29.5%，高于之前预测的 29%。</p>
</div><p>The business seems to be firing on all cylinders as the ad engine takes off. Netflix continues to expand the breadth of its content with several series and films bringing audiences of 50 million or more in the quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着广告引擎的起步，业务似乎正在全面开花。奈飞继续扩展其内容的广度，多个系列和电影在季度内吸引了超过 5000 万观众。</p>
</div><p>Members watched 95 billion hours in the first half of the year, a 1% increase, and the company's local content strategy is paying off, as well, as non-English content now represents more than a third of its viewing. Those trends all bode well for the business over the next three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>会员在上半年观看了 950 亿小时，增长了 1%，公司的本地内容战略也取得了成效，非英语内容现在占其观看量的三分之一以上。这些趋势都为未来三年的业务发展带来了良好前景。</p>
</div><h2>Can Netflix stock get to $2,500?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>奈飞的股票能否达到 2500 美元？</h2>
</div><p>Netflix's surge over the last three years is primarily due to the improvements in the business, but it's also benefited from multiple expansion. You can see that in the chart below, though that doesn't include the most recent quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奈飞在过去三年的飙升主要归功于业务的改善，但它也受益于市盈率的扩张。你可以在下图中看到这一点，尽管这不包括最近的季度。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9f824c45f5a88c0aad9c9e424f1541e5.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9f824c45f5a88c0aad9c9e424f1541e5.png"/></p>
<p>NFLX data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NFLX 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Factoring in second-quarter earnings, Netflix's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) would be closer to 50, but that's still pricey, especially for a stock that was regarded as mature not long ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到第二季度的收益，奈飞的市盈率（P/E）将接近 50，但这仍然很昂贵，尤其是对于一只不久前被视为成熟的股票。</p>
</div><p>For Netflix to double from here, it will likely have to earn it on its own merits, as Friday's post-earnings sell-off shows, despite the strong results. Investors seem to feel the stock now has enough growth baked in, which makes further gains more difficult.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要让奈飞的股价翻倍，它可能需要凭借自身的实力来实现，正如周五财报后的抛售所示，尽管结果强劲。投资者似乎认为这只股票现在已经包含了足够的增长，这使得进一步的涨幅变得更加困难。</p>
</div><p>Netflix can double earnings per share, but it may take more than three years to do it. Still, with its double-digit revenue, expanding operating margins, and potential to expand into new businesses, doubling EPS in the next five years seems like a fair assumption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奈飞可以将每股收益翻倍，但可能需要超过三年的时间才能做到。不过，考虑到其两位数的收入增长、扩大的运营利润率以及向新业务扩展的潜力，在未来五年内每股收益翻倍似乎是一个合理的假设。</p>
</div><p>The streaming stock could double by 2028 but will have to top an already high bar. That won't be easy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这只流媒体股票可能在 2028 年前翻倍，但必须超越已经很高的门槛。这并不容易。</p>
</div>

Can Netflix Stock Double by 2028?

- Netflix 股票在过去三年上涨超过 500%，尽管被视为成熟公司。  
- 第二季度营收增长 16% 至 111 亿美元，运营利润率从 27.2% 增至 34.1%。  
- 管理层预计下半年利润率将下降，但全年营收预期上调至 448 亿至 452 亿美元。  

奈飞的股票能在 2028 年翻倍吗？