<p><strong>ASML</strong>(ASML 1.53%) 的股票在 7 月 16 日的交易日中一度下跌超过 11%，最终收盘下跌 8.3%。然而，这只成长股在接下来的几天中继续下跌，目前过去一年已下跌 21%。</p>
<p>该公司制造先进的光刻机，芯片制造商使用这些机器来生产由 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.06%) 和 <strong>Broadcom</strong>(AVGO 1.83%) 设计的芯片。ASML 的极紫外（EUV）系统在每个硅晶圆中集成了前所未有数量的晶体管，提高了精度并降低了制造成本。这些机器是人工智能（AI）革命背后的动力。</p>
<p>以下是关于 ASML 抛售的你需要知道的内容，以及这是否会对 Nvidia 和 Broadcom 造成影响，使其从历史高点回落。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU1ODgvbGlnaHQtaGl0cy1hLXNpbGljb24td2FmZXItaWxsdXN0cmF0aW5nLXRoZS1jb21wbGV4aXR5LW9mLXNlbWljb25kdWN0b3ItbWFudWZhY3R1cmluZy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU1ODgvbGlnaHQtaGl0cy1hLXNpbGljb24td2FmZXItaWxsdXN0cmF0aW5nLXRoZS1jb21wbGV4aXR5LW9mLXNlbWljb25kdWN0b3ItbWFudWZhY3R1cmluZy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>ASML 的稳健业绩被其指引所掩盖</h2>
<p>ASML 在 7 月 16 日公布了其最新的季度业绩。它在第二季度表现出色，并预计全年收入增长 15%，毛利率略有上升。该半导体设备供应商重申了其 2030 年的目标，预计收入将比 2024 年的 283 亿欧元（328.1 亿美元）增长 55% 至 112%，毛利率将从低 50% 区间扩展至 56% 至 60%。</p>
<p>毛利率的扩张可能是由于公司预计其销售组合中 EUV 机器的增加。目前，其较旧且技术较低的深紫外（DUV）机器仍占新销售的大部分。ASML 通过为客户提供现有机器的服务来获得可观的收入。随着销售组合转向更昂贵的 EUV 机器，毛利率应该会增长，尤其是其约 4 亿美元的超高数值孔径（高-NA）版本。</p>
<p>短期业绩和 2030 年的目标不是问题。相反，问题在于模糊的中期前景。ASML 提到地缘政治挑战和宏观经济逆风正在影响其客户及其支出时机。</p>
<p>该公司直接受到对其美国制造中心和现场运营的进口关税的影响。ASML 还从全球各地采购组件来制造其机器，因此它的供应链复杂，容易受到关税的影响。</p>
<p>尽管 ASML 是一家荷兰公司，但荷兰与美国在贸易政策上密切合作。这限制了 ASML 向中国销售产品的能力，尽管中国对半导体光刻系统的需求迅速增长。根据目前的情况，ASML 无法向中国销售其最先进的系统，只能销售较旧、成本较低的设备。</p>
<p>关税还有间接影响，可能涉及更严重的行业整体放缓和客户情绪的转变。鉴于不确定性，ASML 表示无法确认其将在 2026 年实现增长。这可能是股票抛售的原因。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 和 Broadcom 在 AI 价值链中位于 ASML 的上游</h2>
<p>ASML 最新的财报和管理层评论提醒我们半导体行业的周期性。尽管对 AI 的热情和支出广泛存在，但由于地缘政治或宏观经济原因，仍然可能出现下滑，从关税和贸易政策到利率和投资周期的时机。</p>
<p>在 Nvidia 和 Broadcom 的投资者开始担忧之前，重要的是要记住 ASML 的销售周期与这两家公司截然不同。ASML 在最新季度仅售出了 76 台新的光刻机。这不到每天一台。你很难找到一家市值近 2900 亿美元的公司，其订单量如此之小。但这证明了 ASML 尖端技术的复杂性。该公司几乎垄断市场，其客户愿意为其机器支付高价，因为如果能够降低成本并提高精度，从长远来看是值得的。但由于这些设备价格昂贵，关键客户更容易决定推迟一两年的购买，以等待更有利的条件。</p>
<p>在最新季度，ASML 表示 35% 的新系统销售来自台湾，27% 来自中国，19% 来自韩国，10% 来自美国，9% 来自其他地方。你可以肯定，台湾的大部分销售将给 <strong>台湾半导体制造</strong>(TSM 2.35%)，韩国可能是 <strong>三星电子</strong>(SSNL.F 9.01%)，而美国主要是 <strong>英特尔</strong>(INTC 0.97%)。</p>
<p>Nvidia 和 Broadcom 也有国际曝光。但由于它们不仅仅是每季度销售几项大宗商品，因此它们的销售周期截然不同。Nvidia 主要通过销售图形处理单元（GPU）、软件和相关基础设施来为超大规模企业构建 AI 生态系统来赚取大部分收入。像 <strong>微软</strong>(MSFT 0.05%) 这样的超大规模企业正在获取自由现金流，并将资本支出投入到 AI 投资中，从而使 Nvidia 受益。</p>
<p>Broadcom 正在从超大规模企业的 AI 芯片中经历爆炸性增长。但 Broadcom 在 AI 之外还有很多业务，包括网络连接、网络安全、宽带、无线和基础设施软件。</p>
<p>Nvidia 和 Broadcom 都具有国际曝光，并且容易受到贸易紧张和关税风险的影响，但它们的销售周期与 ASML 截然不同。因此，ASML 对即将放缓的警告并不一定意味着 Nvidia 和 Broadcom 也会如此。然而，如果晶圆厂（制造商）放慢投资，可能会导致积压增加，从而延迟芯片设计师的发货。</p>
<h2>从半导体行业的全局来看</h2>
<p>ASML 股票的抛售是对短期指引的反应，与长期投资无关。处理任何芯片股票，尤其是像英伟达和博通这样估值昂贵的股票，最好的方法是采取长期视角，最好是至少三到五年。</p>
<p>如果你相信全球连接和人工智能的长期增长，并且认为英伟达和博通将继续保持行业领先地位，那么这两只股票可能值得购买和持有。即使有几个季度或几年的糟糕收益，最终也会被长期投资论点所弥补。</p>
<p>然而，股票价格越是超出盈利增长，估值越是昂贵，股票价格中充斥的泡沫就越多，这种泡沫可能会像进来时一样迅速消失。因此，以正确的心态看待这些股票至关重要，并接受地缘政治和宏观经济因素在短期内对这些公司的股价可能产生巨大影响。</p>

博通

阿斯麦

英伟达

<p>ASML 的股票在过去一年中下跌超过 21%，在 7 月 16 日下跌了 8.3%。尽管季度业绩稳健且长期前景积极，ASML 仍面临影响客户支出的地缘政治和宏观经济挑战。这种不确定性引发了对可能对英伟达和博通产生连锁反应的担忧，因为这两家公司在人工智能价值链的上游运营。ASML 的销售周期与英伟达和博通显著不同，因为它销售的光刻机数量较少且成本较高，这使得客户更容易推迟购买。由于半导体行业的周期性和外部压力，投资者变得谨慎</p>

<p><strong>ASML</strong>(ASML 1.53%) stock was down over 11% at one point during the trading day July 16 before closing the session down 8.3%. However, the growth stock continued falling over the next couple of days and is now down 21% over the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>ASML</strong>(ASML 1.53%) 的股票在 7 月 16 日的交易日中一度下跌超过 11%，最终收盘下跌 8.3%。然而，这只成长股在接下来的几天中继续下跌，目前过去一年已下跌 21%。</p>
</div><p>The company makes advanced lithography machines that chip manufacturers use to produce chips designed by companies like <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.06%) and <strong>Broadcom</strong>(AVGO 1.83%). ASML's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) systems pack an unprecedented number of transistors into each silicon wafer, advancing precision and lowering manufacturing costs. These machines are the muscle behind the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司制造先进的光刻机，芯片制造商使用这些机器来生产由 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.06%) 和 <strong>Broadcom</strong>(AVGO 1.83%) 设计的芯片。ASML 的极紫外（EUV）系统在每个硅晶圆中集成了前所未有数量的晶体管，提高了精度并降低了制造成本。这些机器是人工智能（AI）革命背后的动力。</p>
</div><p>Here's what you need to know about the ASML sell-off, and whether it could have ripple effects that could drag Nvidia and Broadcom down from their all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是关于 ASML 抛售的你需要知道的内容，以及这是否会对 Nvidia 和 Broadcom 造成影响，使其从历史高点回落。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU1ODgvbGlnaHQtaGl0cy1hLXNpbGljb24td2FmZXItaWxsdXN0cmF0aW5nLXRoZS1jb21wbGV4aXR5LW9mLXNlbWljb25kdWN0b3ItbWFudWZhY3R1cmluZy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825588%2Flight-hits-a-silicon-wafer-illustrating-the-complexity-of-semiconductor-manufacturing.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>ASML's solid results were overshadowed by its guidance</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>ASML 的稳健业绩被其指引所掩盖</h2>
</div><p>ASML reported its most recent quarterly results on July 16. It had a great second quarter and is guiding for 15% revenue growth and slightly higher gross margins for the full year. The semiconductor equipment supplier reaffirmed its 2030 targets, which forecast revenue to increase by 55% to 112% from its 2024 results of 28.3 billion euros ($32.81 billion), and gross margin expansion from the low 50% range to 56% to 60%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ASML 在 7 月 16 日公布了其最新的季度业绩。它在第二季度表现出色，并预计全年收入增长 15%，毛利率略有上升。该半导体设备供应商重申了其 2030 年的目标，预计收入将比 2024 年的 283 亿欧元（328.1 亿美元）增长 55% 至 112%，毛利率将从低 50% 区间扩展至 56% 至 60%。</p>
</div><p>The margin expansion is likely due to the company's anticipated increase in EUV machines in its sales mix. Right now, its older and less advanced deep ultraviolet machines (DUV) still make up the bulk of new sales. ASML brings in a significant amount of revenue by servicing existing machines for its customers. Margins should grow as the sales mix shifts to more expensive EUV machines -- especially its roughly $400 million ultra-powered high-numerical aperture (high-NA) versions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率的扩张可能是由于公司预计其销售组合中 EUV 机器的增加。目前，其较旧且技术较低的深紫外（DUV）机器仍占新销售的大部分。ASML 通过为客户提供现有机器的服务来获得可观的收入。随着销售组合转向更昂贵的 EUV 机器，毛利率应该会增长，尤其是其约 4 亿美元的超高数值孔径（高-NA）版本。</p>
</div><p>The near-term results and the 2030 targets aren't the issue. Rather, it's a murky medium-term outlook. ASML cited geopolitical challenges and macroeconomic headwinds that are affecting its customers and the timing of their spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期业绩和 2030 年的目标不是问题。相反，问题在于模糊的中期前景。ASML 提到地缘政治挑战和宏观经济逆风正在影响其客户及其支出时机。</p>
</div><p>The company is directly affected by tariffs on imports to its U.S. manufacturing centers and field operations. ASML also sources components from around the world to build its machines, so it has a complex supply chain that is vulnerable to tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司直接受到对其美国制造中心和现场运营的进口关税的影响。ASML 还从全球各地采购组件来制造其机器，因此它的供应链复杂，容易受到关税的影响。</p>
</div><p>Although ASML is a Dutch company, the Netherlands works closely with the U.S. on trade policy. This limits ASML's ability to sell products to China, despite China's rapidly growing demand for semiconductor lithography systems. As it stands today, ASML can't sell its most advanced systems to China -- just older, lower-cost units.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 ASML 是一家荷兰公司，但荷兰与美国在贸易政策上密切合作。这限制了 ASML 向中国销售产品的能力，尽管中国对半导体光刻系统的需求迅速增长。根据目前的情况，ASML 无法向中国销售其最先进的系统，只能销售较旧、成本较低的设备。</p>
</div><p>There's also the indirect effect of tariffs, which could involve a more severe industrywide slowdown and a shift in customer sentiment. Given the uncertainty, ASML said that it cannot confirm it will grow in 2026. That's likely the reason that the stock is selling off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关税还有间接影响，可能涉及更严重的行业整体放缓和客户情绪的转变。鉴于不确定性，ASML 表示无法确认其将在 2026 年实现增长。这可能是股票抛售的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia and Broadcom operate upstream of ASML along the AI value chain</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 和 Broadcom 在 AI 价值链中位于 ASML 的上游</h2>
</div><p>ASML's latest earnings report and management commentary were a reminder of the cyclicality of the semiconductor industry. Despite widespread enthusiasm and spending on AI, downturns can still happen for geopolitical or macroeconomic reasons, from tariffs and trade policy to interest rates and the timing of the investment cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ASML 最新的财报和管理层评论提醒我们半导体行业的周期性。尽管对 AI 的热情和支出广泛存在，但由于地缘政治或宏观经济原因，仍然可能出现下滑，从关税和贸易政策到利率和投资周期的时机。</p>
</div><p>Before Nvidia and Broadcom investors start to worry, it's important to remember that ASML operates in a very different sales cycle from those two companies. ASML sold just 76 new lithography units in its latest quarter. That's less than one sale per day. You would be hard-pressed to find a company with a market cap of nearly $290 billion with an order volume that small. But it's a testament to the sophistication of ASML's cutting-edge tech. The company has a virtual monopoly, and its customers are willing to pay a high price for its machines because they're worth it in the long run if they can reduce costs and improve precision. But because these units are so expensive, it's easier for a key customer to decide to delay a purchase by a year or two to wait for more favorable conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Nvidia 和 Broadcom 的投资者开始担忧之前，重要的是要记住 ASML 的销售周期与这两家公司截然不同。ASML 在最新季度仅售出了 76 台新的光刻机。这不到每天一台。你很难找到一家市值近 2900 亿美元的公司，其订单量如此之小。但这证明了 ASML 尖端技术的复杂性。该公司几乎垄断市场，其客户愿意为其机器支付高价，因为如果能够降低成本并提高精度，从长远来看是值得的。但由于这些设备价格昂贵，关键客户更容易决定推迟一两年的购买，以等待更有利的条件。</p>
</div><p>In its latest quarter, ASML said that 35% of new system sales were in Taiwan, while 27% were in China, 19% were in South Korea, 10% were in the U.S., and 9% were in other places. You can bet that the majority of sales in Taiwan are going to <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 2.35%), South Korea is probably <strong>Samsung Electronics</strong>(SSNL.F 9.01%), and the U.S. is mostly <strong>Intel</strong>(INTC 0.97%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最新季度，ASML 表示 35% 的新系统销售来自台湾，27% 来自中国，19% 来自韩国，10% 来自美国，9% 来自其他地方。你可以肯定，台湾的大部分销售将给 <strong>台湾半导体制造</strong>(TSM 2.35%)，韩国可能是 <strong>三星电子</strong>(SSNL.F 9.01%)，而美国主要是 <strong>英特尔</strong>(INTC 0.97%)。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia and Broadcom have international exposure, too. But their sales cycle is far different because they aren't just selling a few big-ticket items every quarter. Nvidia makes most of its money selling graphics processing units (GPUs), software, and associated infrastructure to build AI ecosystems for hyperscalers. Hyperscalers like <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.05%) are raking in the free cash flow and pouring capital expenditures into AI investments -- benefiting Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 和 Broadcom 也有国际曝光。但由于它们不仅仅是每季度销售几项大宗商品，因此它们的销售周期截然不同。Nvidia 主要通过销售图形处理单元（GPU）、软件和相关基础设施来为超大规模企业构建 AI 生态系统来赚取大部分收入。像 <strong>微软</strong>(MSFT 0.05%) 这样的超大规模企业正在获取自由现金流，并将资本支出投入到 AI 投资中，从而使 Nvidia 受益。</p>
</div><p>Broadcom is experiencing explosive growth from hyperscalers for its AI chips. But Broadcom does a lot outside AI, from network connectivity to cybersecurity, broadband, wireless, and infrastructure software.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Broadcom 正在从超大规模企业的 AI 芯片中经历爆炸性增长。但 Broadcom 在 AI 之外还有很多业务，包括网络连接、网络安全、宽带、无线和基础设施软件。</p>
</div><p>Both Nvidia and Broadcom have international exposure and are vulnerable to trade tensions and tariff risks, but their sales cycles are distinctly different from ASML's. So ASML's warning of an impending slowdown doesn't necessarily mean the same for Nvidia and Broadcom. However, if fabs (the fabricators) slow down their investment, it could lead to a backlog buildup, which could delay shipments for chip designers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 和 Broadcom 都具有国际曝光，并且容易受到贸易紧张和关税风险的影响，但它们的销售周期与 ASML 截然不同。因此，ASML 对即将放缓的警告并不一定意味着 Nvidia 和 Broadcom 也会如此。然而，如果晶圆厂（制造商）放慢投资，可能会导致积压增加，从而延迟芯片设计师的发货。</p>
</div><h2>Zooming out in the semiconductor industry</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>从半导体行业的全局来看</h2>
</div><p>The sell-off in ASML stock is a reaction to near-term guidance and has nothing to do with the long-term investment. The best way to approach any chip stock, especially ones with expensive valuations like Nvidia and Broadcom, is to take a long-term view, preferably at least three to five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ASML 股票的抛售是对短期指引的反应，与长期投资无关。处理任何芯片股票，尤其是像英伟达和博通这样估值昂贵的股票，最好的方法是采取长期视角，最好是至少三到五年。</p>
</div><p>If you believe in the long-term growth of global connectivity and AI and that Nvidia and Broadcom will remain industry leaders, then both stocks are probably worth buying and holding. Even a few quarters or a few years of bad earnings will ultimately be made up for by the long-term investment thesis playing out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你相信全球连接和人工智能的长期增长，并且认为英伟达和博通将继续保持行业领先地位，那么这两只股票可能值得购买和持有。即使有几个季度或几年的糟糕收益，最终也会被长期投资论点所弥补。</p>
</div><p>However, the further stock prices outpace earnings growth, and the more expensive valuations become, the more hot air fills the stock price, which can go out just as fast as it went in. Therefore, it's essential to approach these stocks with the right mindset and accept that geopolitical and macroeconomic factors can have a massive effect on the stock prices of these companies in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，股票价格越是超出盈利增长，估值越是昂贵，股票价格中充斥的泡沫就越多，这种泡沫可能会像进来时一样迅速消失。因此，以正确的心态看待这些股票至关重要，并接受地缘政治和宏观经济因素在短期内对这些公司的股价可能产生巨大影响。</p>
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Does the ASML Stock Sell-Off Signal Trouble for Nvidia and Broadcom?

- ASML 股价在 7 月 16 日一度下跌超过 11%，最终收盘下跌 8.3%。  
- 公司预计 2023 年收入增长 15%，但面临地缘政治和宏观经济挑战。  
- ASML 的警告可能影响 Nvidia 和 Broadcom，但两者销售周期不同。  

阿斯麦股票的抛售是否意味着英伟达和博通将面临困境？