<p>近三年来，人工智能（AI）的崛起主导了华尔街的讨论。普华永道的分析师认为，AI 驱动的软件和系统能够在没有人类监督的情况下做出瞬间决策，这一前景将改变游戏规则，预计到本世纪末可以为全球经济增加 15.7 万亿美元。</p>
<p>没有哪家公司比 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 1.75%）更直接地受益于 AI 的演变。自 2023 年开始，Nvidia 从一家边缘重要的科技公司变成了市值超过 4 万亿美元的最有价值上市公司。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYyNTMvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYyNTMvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Nvidia。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的崛起反映了其 AI 图形处理单元（GPU）在高计算数据中心运营的企业中是无可替代的。Nvidia 的 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell GPU 的订单已经积压，这使得公司能够对其硬件收取三位数百分比的溢价，相较于其他外部竞争对手。</p>
<p>首席执行官黄仁勋正在努力确保他的公司在 AI 领域保持计算领导地位。黄仁勋预计每年推出一款新的先进 AI 芯片，接下来是 Blackwell Ultra（2025）、Vera Rubin（2026）和 Vera Rubin Ultra（2027）。后两者将基于全新的 Vera 处理器。</p>
<p>最后，Nvidia 的 CUDA 软件平台将一切联系在一起。CUDA 是开发者用来最大化其 Nvidia 硬件计算潜力的工具。它实际上是保持买家忠诚于 Nvidia 生态系统的关键。</p>
<p>对于华尔街和投资者来说，毫无疑问，Nvidia 在 8 月 27 日的财务第二季度运营结果是最重要的（Nvidia 的财年在 1 月底结束）。虽然大多数分析师预计将再次出现爆炸性表现，但在 8 月 27 日，AI 革命的面孔可能会面临不少于五个原因的挑战。</p>
<h2>1. 内部竞争开始对利润率施加压力</h2>
<p>对于大多数投资者来说，外部竞争被视为对 Nvidia AI-GPU 主导地位的最大威胁。直接竞争对手包括 <strong>超微半导体</strong> 和中国的华为等。</p>
<p>尽管来自外部竞争对手的 GPU 数量随着每个季度的推移而增加，但这并不是投资者应该担心的威胁。对 Nvidia 来说，最大的风险来自内部。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的一些最大客户（想想 “七大奇迹” 成员）正在开发 AI-GPU 以部署在他们的数据中心。虽然这些芯片不会在公开市场上与 Nvidia 的硬件竞争，但它们对 Nvidia 的增长构成了多种危险：</p>
<ul>
<li>它们减少了 AI-GPU 的稀缺性，而 Nvidia 正是利用这一点来提升其定价能力并提高其毛利率。</li>
<li>它们明显比 Nvidia 的硬件便宜，这可能对 Nvidia 的定价能力施加额外的下行压力。</li>
<li>与 Nvidia 的 GPU 不同，它们不会出现积压。这可能会减缓升级周期，从而削弱 Nvidia 未来的增长预测。</li>
</ul>
<h2>2. 特朗普总统的互惠关税引入预测不确定性</h2>
<p>另一个可能阻碍 AI 革命面孔的逆风是特朗普总统的关税和贸易政策。</p>
<p>4 月 2 日，总统公布了 10% 的全球关税，以及对被认为与美国存在不利贸易失衡的数十个国家的更高 “互惠关税”。这些互惠关税率在 4 月 9 日暂停 90 天，并于 7 月 7 日通过行政命令再次延长至 8 月 1 日。从今天起一周后，它们将生效。</p>
<p>特朗普的关税和贸易政策令人担忧之处在于，它为 Nvidia 的情况引入了不确定性，而在此之前，完美和透明度已被定价。如果贸易协议未达成，报复性关税、供应链问题和不利影响利润率的更高价格都可能出现。</p>
<p>也就是说，截至 7 月 22 日，Nvidia 的增长预测远非确定。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYyNTMvbnZpZGlhLWNlby1qZW5zZW4taHVhbmctZGVsaXZlcnMtZ3RjLWtleW5vdGUuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYyNTMvbnZpZGlhLWNlby1qZW5zZW4taHVhbmctZGVsaXZlcnMtZ3RjLWtleW5vdGUuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>黄仁勋在 GTC 上发表主题演讲。图片来源：Nvidia。</p>
<h2>3. 黄仁勋的创新周期开始引发不满</h2>
<p>另一个可能让华尔街不满并使 Nvidia 失去其地位的因素是公司的创新周期。</p>
<p>通常，积极投资开发新技术会受到投资者的丰厚回报。但在技术进步和通过对外部竞争对手收取三位数溢价来维持 70% 以上的毛利率之间存在着微妙的平衡。</p>
<p>例如，黄仁勋每年推出一款新的 AI-GPU 的目标存在迅速贬值前一代芯片价值的风险。如果 Hopper GPU 的价值暴跌，购买了大量 Hopper GPU 的客户以及租赁计算能力的数据中心将不太可能升级到新芯片。</p>
<p>另一种可能性是，随着 Nvidia 推出更快和更高价的 GPU，企业可能会选择以折扣价购买前一代芯片。我们可能会开始看到这反映在公司更弱的毛利率预测中。</p>
<h2>4. 特朗普政府在出口限制上反复无常</h2>
<p>自 2022 年 10 月以来，乔·拜登和唐纳德·特朗普政府已限制向中国出口高性能 AI 芯片及相关设备。尽管 Nvidia 专门开发了其最高性能 AI 芯片的简化版本，但两届政府均已取消其向世界第二大经济体出口的能力。</p>
<p>好消息是，特朗普政府最近（不到两周前）撤销了出口禁令，这使得英伟达可以向中国销售其较不先进的 H20 芯片。虽然这一消息使英伟达的股票飙升，但这也做出了一个危险的假设，即特朗普政府不会对这一决定反复无常。</p>
<p>尽管美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克建议允许向中国销售 AI 芯片将使公司依赖美国技术，但特朗普及其政府在过去六个月中对关税和贸易政策的改变次数不计其数。与中国尚未达成任何贸易协议，英伟达的技术仍有可能被用作特朗普获取其所需的筹码。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7814310564931bdfdd023653c9de17d1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7814310564931bdfdd023653c9de17d1.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS 比率数据来自 YCharts。PS 比率=市销率。</p>
<h2>5. 历史终于追上英伟达的高估值</h2>
<p>英伟达在 8 月 27 日的派对可能结束的第五个也是最后一个原因是历史终于追上了其过高的估值。</p>
<p>我坚信，拥有可持续护城河和垄断市场份额的公司应当获得高估值……<em>在一定程度上</em>。去年夏天，英伟达的股票市销率（P/S）达到了 42，这与互联网泡沫破裂前华尔街领先企业的峰值过去 12 个月（TTM）市销率大致相符。</p>
<p>尽管英伟达在过去两年中销售额激增，但截至 7 月 22 日，其 TTM 市销率仍为 28。没有任何市场领先公司能够在较长时间内维持如此高的溢价。这表明英伟达几乎没有犯错的余地，其股票将因最轻微的失误或感知的不确定性而受到惩罚。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达作为人工智能技术的领导者，在 8 月 27 日的财年第二季度业绩发布前面临潜在挑战。主要担忧包括主要客户开发自有 AI-GPU 带来的内部竞争、特朗普总统关税的不确定性，以及快速创新可能导致对旧型号需求下降的风险。尽管英伟达在人工智能需求中表现出色，但这些因素可能会影响其定价能力和增长预测，令其在人工智能市场的未来表现引发疑问</p>

<p>For nearly three years, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has dominated discussion on Wall Street. The prospect of AI-empowered software and systems making split-second decisions without the oversight of humans is a game-changer that the analysts at PwC believe can add $15.7 trillion to the global economy by the turn of the decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近三年来，人工智能（AI）的崛起主导了华尔街的讨论。普华永道的分析师认为，AI 驱动的软件和系统能够在没有人类监督的情况下做出瞬间决策，这一前景将改变游戏规则，预计到本世纪末可以为全球经济增加 15.7 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>No company has been a more direct beneficiary of the evolution of AI than <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.75%). Since 2023 began, Nvidia has gone from being a tech company of fringe importance to the most-valuable publicly traded company at north of $4 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有哪家公司比 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 1.75%）更直接地受益于 AI 的演变。自 2023 年开始，Nvidia 从一家边缘重要的科技公司变成了市值超过 4 万亿美元的最有价值上市公司。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYyNTMvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F826253%2Fnvidia-voyager-headquarters-artificial-intelligence-gpu-ai-semiconductor.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Nvidia。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's ascension is a reflection of its AI-graphic processing units (GPUs) being the bee's knees among businesses operating high-compute data centers. Orders for Nvidia's Hopper (H100) and Blackwell GPUs are backlogged, which has allowed the company to charge a triple-digit percentage premium for its hardware, when compared to other external competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的崛起反映了其 AI 图形处理单元（GPU）在高计算数据中心运营的企业中是无可替代的。Nvidia 的 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell GPU 的订单已经积压，这使得公司能够对其硬件收取三位数百分比的溢价，相较于其他外部竞争对手。</p>
</div><p>CEO Jensen Huang is doing his part to ensure that his company remains the compute leader in the AI space. Huang anticipates bringing a new advanced AI chip to market annually, with Blackwell Ultra (2025), Vera Rubin (2026), and Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) next in line. The latter two will operate on the all-new Vera processor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席执行官黄仁勋正在努力确保他的公司在 AI 领域保持计算领导地位。黄仁勋预计每年推出一款新的先进 AI 芯片，接下来是 Blackwell Ultra（2025）、Vera Rubin（2026）和 Vera Rubin Ultra（2027）。后两者将基于全新的 Vera 处理器。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, Nvidia's CUDA software platform has tied everything together. CUDA is what developers use to maximize the compute potential of their Nvidia hardware. It's effectively the hook that keeps buyers loyal to Nvidia's ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，Nvidia 的 CUDA 软件平台将一切联系在一起。CUDA 是开发者用来最大化其 Nvidia 硬件计算潜力的工具。它实际上是保持买家忠诚于 Nvidia 生态系统的关键。</p>
</div><p>For Wall Street and investors, arguably nothing is of greater importance than Nvidia's fiscal second-quarter operating results on Aug. 27 (Nvidia's fiscal year ends in late January). While most analysts are counting on another blowout performance, there are no fewer than five reasons the party can end on Aug. 27 for the face of the AI revolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于华尔街和投资者来说，毫无疑问，Nvidia 在 8 月 27 日的财务第二季度运营结果是最重要的（Nvidia 的财年在 1 月底结束）。虽然大多数分析师预计将再次出现爆炸性表现，但在 8 月 27 日，AI 革命的面孔可能会面临不少于五个原因的挑战。</p>
</div><h2>1. Internal competition begins pressuring margins</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 内部竞争开始对利润率施加压力</h2>
</div><p>For most investors, external competition is viewed as the greatest threat to Nvidia's AI-GPU dominance. Direct rivals include the likes of <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> and China-based Huawei, among others.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于大多数投资者来说，外部竞争被视为对 Nvidia AI-GPU 主导地位的最大威胁。直接竞争对手包括 <strong>超微半导体</strong> 和中国的华为等。</p>
</div><p>Though the number of GPUs becoming available from external competitors is climbing with each passing quarter, this isn't the threat investors should be worried about. The biggest risk to Nvidia comes from within.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管来自外部竞争对手的 GPU 数量随着每个季度的推移而增加，但这并不是投资者应该担心的威胁。对 Nvidia 来说，最大的风险来自内部。</p>
</div><p>Many of Nvidia's largest customers by net sales (think members of the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34;) are developing AI-GPUs to deploy in their data centers. While these chips aren't going to compete with Nvidia's hardware on the open market, they're dangerous to Nvidia's growth for a number of reasons:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的一些最大客户（想想 “七大奇迹” 成员）正在开发 AI-GPU 以部署在他们的数据中心。虽然这些芯片不会在公开市场上与 Nvidia 的硬件竞争，但它们对 Nvidia 的增长构成了多种危险：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>They're reducing AI-GPU scarcity, which Nvidia has used to pump up its pricing power and boost its gross margin.</li>
<li>They're notably cheaper than Nvidia's hardware, which can provide additional downside pressure on Nvidia's pricing power.</li>
<li>Unlike Nvidia's GPUs, they aren't going to be backlogged. This can slow upgrade cycles, which would weaken Nvidia's future growth forecasts.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>它们减少了 AI-GPU 的稀缺性，而 Nvidia 正是利用这一点来提升其定价能力并提高其毛利率。</li>
<li>它们明显比 Nvidia 的硬件便宜，这可能对 Nvidia 的定价能力施加额外的下行压力。</li>
<li>与 Nvidia 的 GPU 不同，它们不会出现积压。这可能会减缓升级周期，从而削弱 Nvidia 未来的增长预测。</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>2. President Trump's reciprocal tariffs introduce forecast uncertainty</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 特朗普总统的互惠关税引入预测不确定性</h2>
</div><p>A second headwind that can trip up the face of the AI revolution is President Donald Trump's tariff and trade policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个可能阻碍 AI 革命面孔的逆风是特朗普总统的关税和贸易政策。</p>
</div><p>On April 2, the president unveiled a 10% global tariff, along with higher &#34;reciprocal tariffs&#34; on dozens of countries deemed to have adverse trade imbalances with America. These reciprocal tariff rates were paused for 90 days on April 9, and extended once more on July 7 via executive order to August 1. One week from today, they go into effect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4 月 2 日，总统公布了 10% 的全球关税，以及对被认为与美国存在不利贸易失衡的数十个国家的更高 “互惠关税”。这些互惠关税率在 4 月 9 日暂停 90 天，并于 7 月 7 日通过行政命令再次延长至 8 月 1 日。从今天起一周后，它们将生效。</p>
</div><p>What's so worrisome about Trump's tariff and trade policy is that it introduces uncertainty into a situation (for Nvidia) where perfection and transparency have been priced in. If trade deals aren't reached, retaliatory tariffs, supply chain hiccups, and higher prices that adversely impact margins, can all come into play.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普的关税和贸易政策令人担忧之处在于，它为 Nvidia 的情况引入了不确定性，而在此之前，完美和透明度已被定价。如果贸易协议未达成，报复性关税、供应链问题和不利影响利润率的更高价格都可能出现。</p>
</div><p>The point being that Nvidia's growth forecast is anything but certain, as of this writing on July 22.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，截至 7 月 22 日，Nvidia 的增长预测远非确定。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYyNTMvbnZpZGlhLWNlby1qZW5zZW4taHVhbmctZGVsaXZlcnMtZ3RjLWtleW5vdGUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F826253%2Fnvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-delivers-gtc-keynote.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Jensen Huang delivering his keynote address at GTC. Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄仁勋在 GTC 上发表主题演讲。图片来源：Nvidia。</p>
</div><h2>3. Jensen Huang's innovation cycle begins to ruffle feathers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 黄仁勋的创新周期开始引发不满</h2>
</div><p>Something else that can ruffle Wall Street's feathers and knock Nvidia off of its pedestal is the company's innovation cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个可能让华尔街不满并使 Nvidia 失去其地位的因素是公司的创新周期。</p>
</div><p>Typically, aggressive spending to develop new technology is rewarded handsomely by investors. But there's a fine line between technological advancements and maintaining a 70%-plus gross margin by charging a triple-digit premium to external competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常，积极投资开发新技术会受到投资者的丰厚回报。但在技术进步和通过对外部竞争对手收取三位数溢价来维持 70% 以上的毛利率之间存在着微妙的平衡。</p>
</div><p>For example, Huang's goal of bringing a new AI-GPU to market annually runs the risk of rapidly depreciating the value of prior-generation chips. If the value of Hopper GPUs tanks, customers that made the largest purchases of Hopper GPUs, along with data centers leasing out compute capacity, are going to be less likely to upgrade to new chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，黄仁勋每年推出一款新的 AI-GPU 的目标存在迅速贬值前一代芯片价值的风险。如果 Hopper GPU 的价值暴跌，购买了大量 Hopper GPU 的客户以及租赁计算能力的数据中心将不太可能升级到新芯片。</p>
</div><p>The other possibility is that as Nvidia introduces faster and higher-priced GPUs, businesses will simply opt for prior-generation chips at a discounted price. We may begin to see this reflected in the form of a weaker gross margin forecast from the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一种可能性是，随着 Nvidia 推出更快和更高价的 GPU，企业可能会选择以折扣价购买前一代芯片。我们可能会开始看到这反映在公司更弱的毛利率预测中。</p>
</div><h2>4. The Trump administration flip-flops on export restrictions</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. 特朗普政府在出口限制上反复无常</h2>
</div><p>Since October 2022, the Joe Biden and Donald Trump administrations have restricted exports of high-powered AI chips and related equipment to China. Even though Nvidia had specifically developed toned-down versions of its highest-powered AI chips, both administrations had nixed its ability to export to the world's No. 2 economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2022 年 10 月以来，乔·拜登和唐纳德·特朗普政府已限制向中国出口高性能 AI 芯片及相关设备。尽管 Nvidia 专门开发了其最高性能 AI 芯片的简化版本，但两届政府均已取消其向世界第二大经济体出口的能力。</p>
</div><p>The silver lining is that the Trump administration recently (less than two weeks ago) reversed its export ban, which allows Nvidia to sell its less-advanced H20 chip to China. While this news sent Nvidia's stock soaring, it makes the dangerous assumption that the Trump administration won't flip-flop on this decision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，特朗普政府最近（不到两周前）撤销了出口禁令，这使得英伟达可以向中国销售其较不先进的 H20 芯片。虽然这一消息使英伟达的股票飙升，但这也做出了一个危险的假设，即特朗普政府不会对这一决定反复无常。</p>
</div><p>Though U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has suggested that allowing AI chip sales to China will keep companies reliant on American technology, President Trump and his administration have altered tariff and trade policy more times than can be counted over the last six months. No trade deal has been reached with China, and there remains the possibility that Nvidia's technology is used as a bargaining chip for Trump to get what he wants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克建议允许向中国销售 AI 芯片将使公司依赖美国技术，但特朗普及其政府在过去六个月中对关税和贸易政策的改变次数不计其数。与中国尚未达成任何贸易协议，英伟达的技术仍有可能被用作特朗普获取其所需的筹码。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7814310564931bdfdd023653c9de17d1.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7814310564931bdfdd023653c9de17d1.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS Ratio data by YCharts. PS Ratio= price-to-sales ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA PS 比率数据来自 YCharts。PS 比率=市销率。</p>
</div><h2>5. History finally catches up with Nvidia's premium valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>5. 历史终于追上英伟达的高估值</h2>
</div><p>The fifth and final reason the party can end for Nvidia on Aug. 27 is if history finally catches up to its outsized valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达在 8 月 27 日的派对可能结束的第五个也是最后一个原因是历史终于追上了其过高的估值。</p>
</div><p>I'm a firm believer that companies with sustainable moats and monopoly like market share deserve a premium valuation... <em>to a point</em>. Last summer, Nvidia stock tipped the scales at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 42, which is more or less in-line with the peak trailing-12-month (TTM) P/S ratios of Wall Street's leading businesses prior to the dot-com bubble bursting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我坚信，拥有可持续护城河和垄断市场份额的公司应当获得高估值……<em>在一定程度上</em>。去年夏天，英伟达的股票市销率（P/S）达到了 42，这与互联网泡沫破裂前华尔街领先企业的峰值过去 12 个月（TTM）市销率大致相符。</p>
</div><p>Despite Nvidia's sales skyrocketing over the last two years, its P/S ratio on a TTM basis is still 28, as of July 22. No market-leading company has ever been able to sustain such a high premium over an extended period. What this suggests is that Nvidia has zero margin for error and its stock will be punished for the slightest miss or perceived uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管英伟达在过去两年中销售额激增，但截至 7 月 22 日，其 TTM 市销率仍为 28。没有任何市场领先公司能够在较长时间内维持如此高的溢价。这表明英伟达几乎没有犯错的余地，其股票将因最轻微的失误或感知的不确定性而受到惩罚。</p>
</div>

5 Reasons the Party Can End for Nvidia On Aug. 27

- 人工智能的崛起为全球经济带来 15.7 万亿美元的潜在增长。  
- Nvidia 成为 AI 领域的领军企业，市值超过 4 万亿美元。  
- 内部竞争、关税政策和高估值等因素可能影响 Nvidia 的未来增长。

8 月 27 日英伟达的盛宴可能结束的五个原因