<p>电动汽车制造商 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -8.09%) 在过去六年里震撼了华尔街。自 2019 年 7 月股价为 17 美元、市值为 462 亿美元起，埃隆·马斯克的帝国让电动汽车变得时尚，并扩展到更广泛的替代能源业务，甚至涉足火箭科学。如今，特斯拉的市值已达到一万亿美元，股价为每股 332 美元。早期股东迄今享受了 1830% 的回报。</p>
<p>然而，特斯拉在新兴电动汽车领域的主导地位已经不复存在。其他汽车制造商也加入了环保交通市场，特斯拉的销售增长势头已经减弱。同时，传统汽车巨头 <strong>丰田汽车</strong>(TM -0.79%) 正在适应改造后的汽车市场，运用其数十年的工程技术和超高效的运营来应对新问题。</p>
<p>目前，特斯拉的市场价值大约是丰田的五倍。信不信由你，我认为丰田将在 2035 年前再次拥有比特斯拉更大的市场份额。</p>
<h2>丰田已经是个巨头</h2>
<p>事情是这样的，丰田在许多方面 <em>已经</em> 超过了特斯拉。这家日本公司在 2025 财年的全球销售额达到了 3150 亿美元，该财年于 3 月 31 日结束。而特斯拉在同一时期的销售额仅为 957 亿美元。</p>
<p>而且这不仅仅是销售额。丰田的全年运营现金流为 243 亿美元，而特斯拉为 168 亿美元。例如，在特斯拉令人畏惧的存在背景下，丰田的股票看起来确实较小。</p>
<p>现在，你应该知道丰田不仅仅是一家汽车制造商。该公司是一个真正的日本 <em>企业集团</em>，其市场领先的业务涵盖多个行业。由此产生的综合企业包括汽车零部件供应商、一个去年占丰田总销售额 8% 的银行部门等。</p>
<p>截至 2025 财年末，丰田拥有 585 家子公司和 165 个合资企业。这是一个具有全球规模和创新雄心的复杂商业帝国。如今，该公司正在重组为一家出行公司。其理念是帮助人们运输自己、他们的实物商品、各种类型的信息和能源，所有这些都在丰田品牌之下。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYyNzgvY2hhcmdpbmctZWxlY3RyaWMtY2FyLWV2LTE0MDUyNDI3MDMuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYyNzgvY2hhcmdpbmctZWxlY3RyaWMtY2FyLWV2LTE0MDUyNDI3MDMuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images</p>
<h2>创新的长期计划</h2>
<p>该公司目前运转良好。过去三年中，四个地理区域的销售均有所增长。虽然其车辆可能没有特斯拉 Cybertruck 那样引人注目，但丰田的产品因其在各种驾驶条件下的质量和可靠性而闻名。</p>
<p>该公司是混合动力汽车的早期参与者，早在 1997 年就推出了普锐斯。丰田现在正在全球范围内建设电池和电动汽车工厂，重点关注其在日本和北美的最大市场。</p>
<p>但这并不是丰田唯一的替代燃料系统。它还在积极研究和市场开发燃料电池汽车，旨在使氢动力汽车成为一种常见解决方案，并建立完善的加氢基础设施。在这个早期阶段，丰田的大部分燃料电池工作集中在重型车辆上，如卡车和公交车。乘用车和 SUV 也将在未来加入这个行列。</p>
<h2>丰田终将走出华尔街的廉价货架</h2>
<p>因此，丰田已经准备好并愿意在 2020 年代及以后日益电动化的汽车行业中竞争。这一努力将持续进行，巩固丰田作为世界级环保交通工具设计和制造商的地位——或者说，作为公司所称的四个新目标领域的出行解决方案。</p>
<p>与此同时，丰田的股票交易于低估值比率，如市盈率为 7.2 倍，市销率为 0.7 倍。另一方面，特斯拉的股票仍然是市场宠儿，市盈率为 183，市销率为 11.2。再说一次，特斯拉的业务规模远小于丰田，其曾经令人印象深刻的销售增长在最近几个季度大幅放缓。如果这种趋势持续下去，华尔街可能会取消特斯拉的高估值，并开始将该公司视为其他汽车制造商。</p>
<p>如果这种公平竞争的环境真的出现，特斯拉的股票在丰田面前将显得微不足道——就像丰田的财务数据今天已经超越特斯拉一样。当然，这一切不会在一夜之间发生。但除非这些公司对其商业模式进行重大改变，否则我预计到 2035 年丰田的股票将超过特斯拉的股票。到那时，丰田应该会成为无燃料车辆的一个重要供应商。</p>

丰田(ADR)

特斯拉

丰田汽车

<p>一项预测表明，到 2035 年，丰田的股票可能会超过特斯拉。尽管特斯拉目前在市场上占据主导地位并且增长势头强劲，但其销售增速已放缓，而丰田则凭借更广泛的商业模式和显著的全球销售，正在重组为一家移动出行公司。丰田的财务状况，包括来自运营的现金流较高以及与特斯拉相比估值比率较低，显示出在电动车市场增长的潜力。随着丰田在电池和氢燃料电池技术上的投资，它旨在在环保交通领域有效竞争</p>

<p>Electric vehicle maker <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -8.09%) has taken Wall Street by storm in the past six years. Starting from a stock price of $17 and a $46.2 billion market cap in July, 2019, Elon Musk's empire made electric cars cool and expanded into a broader alternative energy business with a side gig in literal rocket science. Today, Tesla has a trillion-dollar market cap and a stock price of $332 per share. Early shareholders enjoyed a 1,830% return so far.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电动汽车制造商 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -8.09%) 在过去六年里震撼了华尔街。自 2019 年 7 月股价为 17 美元、市值为 462 亿美元起，埃隆·马斯克的帝国让电动汽车变得时尚，并扩展到更广泛的替代能源业务，甚至涉足火箭科学。如今，特斯拉的市值已达到一万亿美元，股价为每股 332 美元。早期股东迄今享受了 1830% 的回报。</p>
</div><p>However, Tesla doesn't dominate the newfangled category of electric vehicles anymore. Other carmakers have joined the eco-friendly transportation market, and Tesla's skyrocketing sales growth has fizzled out. At the same time, classic auto giant <strong>Toyota Motor</strong>(TM -0.79%) is adapting to the revamped car market, applying its decades of engineering know-how and ultraefficient operations to new issues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，特斯拉在新兴电动汽车领域的主导地位已经不复存在。其他汽车制造商也加入了环保交通市场，特斯拉的销售增长势头已经减弱。同时，传统汽车巨头 <strong>丰田汽车</strong>(TM -0.79%) 正在适应改造后的汽车市场，运用其数十年的工程技术和超高效的运营来应对新问题。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's market value is about five times Toyota's right now. Believe it or not, but I think Toyota will have a larger market footprint than Tesla again -- probably before 2035.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，特斯拉的市场价值大约是丰田的五倍。信不信由你，我认为丰田将在 2035 年前再次拥有比特斯拉更大的市场份额。</p>
</div><h2>Toyota is already a giant</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>丰田已经是个巨头</h2>
</div><p>Here's the thing. Toyota is <em>already</em> larger than Tesla in many ways. The Japanese company boasted $315 billion of global sales in fiscal year 2025, which ended on March 31. Tesla's sales stopped at $95.7 billion in the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事情是这样的，丰田在许多方面 <em>已经</em> 超过了特斯拉。这家日本公司在 2025 财年的全球销售额达到了 3150 亿美元，该财年于 3 月 31 日结束。而特斯拉在同一时期的销售额仅为 957 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>And it's not just top-line sales. Toyota's full-year cash from operations were $24.3 billion versus Tesla's $16.8 billion, for example. It's really just the stock that looks small in the context of Tesla's intimidating presence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且这不仅仅是销售额。丰田的全年运营现金流为 243 亿美元，而特斯拉为 168 亿美元。例如，在特斯拉令人畏惧的存在背景下，丰田的股票看起来确实较小。</p>
</div><p>Now, you should know that Toyota is more than just a car maker. The company is a proper Japanese <em>Keiretsu</em>, with market-leading operations spanning many industries. The resulting conglomerate includes auto parts suppliers, a banking division that accounted for 8% of Toyota's total sales last year, and more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，你应该知道丰田不仅仅是一家汽车制造商。该公司是一个真正的日本 <em>企业集团</em>，其市场领先的业务涵盖多个行业。由此产生的综合企业包括汽车零部件供应商、一个去年占丰田总销售额 8% 的银行部门等。</p>
</div><p>Toyota had 585 subsidiaries and 165 joint ventures at the end of fiscal 2025. It's a sophisticated business empire with global scale and innovative ambitions. These days, the company is restructuring itself into a mobility company. The idea is to help people transport themselves, their physical goods, various types of information, and energy, all under the Toyota brand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 财年末，丰田拥有 585 家子公司和 165 个合资企业。这是一个具有全球规模和创新雄心的复杂商业帝国。如今，该公司正在重组为一家出行公司。其理念是帮助人们运输自己、他们的实物商品、各种类型的信息和能源，所有这些都在丰田品牌之下。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYyNzgvY2hhcmdpbmctZWxlY3RyaWMtY2FyLWV2LTE0MDUyNDI3MDMuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F826278%2Fcharging-electric-car-ev-1405242703.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images</p>
</div><h2>Innovative long-term plans</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>创新的长期计划</h2>
</div><p>The company is humming on every cylinder right now. Sales have grown in all four of its geographic segments for the last three years. Its vehicles may not be as flashy as a Tesla Cybertruck, but Toyota's products are renowned for their quality and reliability in a wide range of driving conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司目前运转良好。过去三年中，四个地理区域的销售均有所增长。虽然其车辆可能没有特斯拉 Cybertruck 那样引人注目，但丰田的产品因其在各种驾驶条件下的质量和可靠性而闻名。</p>
</div><p>The company was an early player in hybrid cars, introducing the Prius way back in 1997. Toyota is now building battery and electric vehicle factories around the world, focusing on its largest markets in Japan and North America.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司是混合动力汽车的早期参与者，早在 1997 年就推出了普锐斯。丰田现在正在全球范围内建设电池和电动汽车工厂，重点关注其在日本和北美的最大市场。</p>
</div><p>But that's not the only alternative fuel system up Toyota's sleeve. It is also doing heavy research and market development for fuel cell vehicles, aiming to make hydrogen-powered cars a common solution with a full-fledged refueling infrastructure. At this early stage, most of Toyota's fuel cell efforts focus on heavy vehicles, such as trucks and buses. Passenger cars and SUVs should join the party over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这并不是丰田唯一的替代燃料系统。它还在积极研究和市场开发燃料电池汽车，旨在使氢动力汽车成为一种常见解决方案，并建立完善的加氢基础设施。在这个早期阶段，丰田的大部分燃料电池工作集中在重型车辆上，如卡车和公交车。乘用车和 SUV 也将在未来加入这个行列。</p>
</div><h2>Toyota will climb out of Wall Street's bargain bin someday</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>丰田终将走出华尔街的廉价货架</h2>
</div><p>So Toyota is ready and willing to compete in the increasingly electric car industry of the 2020s and beyond. This effort will continue in the long run, cementing Toyota as a world-class designer and manufacturer of eco-friendly transportation tools -- or mobility solutions, as the company likes to think of its four new target segments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，丰田已经准备好并愿意在 2020 年代及以后日益电动化的汽车行业中竞争。这一努力将持续进行，巩固丰田作为世界级环保交通工具设计和制造商的地位——或者说，作为公司所称的四个新目标领域的出行解决方案。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Toyota's stock trades at low valuation ratios such as 7.2 times earnings and 0.7 times sales. Tesla shares, on the other hand, are still market darlings with a P/E ratio of 183 and P/S at 11.2. Again, Tesla is a much smaller business than Toyota and its formerly impressive sales growth has slowed down dramatically in recent quarters. If that trend continues, Wall Street will probably cancel Tesla's sky-high ratios and start treating the company like any other carmaker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，丰田的股票交易于低估值比率，如市盈率为 7.2 倍，市销率为 0.7 倍。另一方面，特斯拉的股票仍然是市场宠儿，市盈率为 183，市销率为 11.2。再说一次，特斯拉的业务规模远小于丰田，其曾经令人印象深刻的销售增长在最近几个季度大幅放缓。如果这种趋势持续下去，华尔街可能会取消特斯拉的高估值，并开始将该公司视为其他汽车制造商。</p>
</div><p>If that level playing field ever develops, Tesla's stock will look small next to Toyota's -- just like Toyota's financial figures already outclass Tesla's today. None of this will happen overnight, of course. But unless these companies make drastic changes to their business models, I expect Toyota's stock to be worth more than Tesla's by 2035. And Toyota should be a serious supplier of gas-free vehicles by then.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这种公平竞争的环境真的出现，特斯拉的股票在丰田面前将显得微不足道——就像丰田的财务数据今天已经超越特斯拉一样。当然，这一切不会在一夜之间发生。但除非这些公司对其商业模式进行重大改变，否则我预计到 2035 年丰田的股票将超过特斯拉的股票。到那时，丰田应该会成为无燃料车辆的一个重要供应商。</p>
</div>

Prediction: 1 Stock Will Be Worth More Than Tesla 10 Years From Now

- 特斯拉市值已达一万亿美元，股价为 332 美元，早期股东回报达 1830%。  
- 丰田在 2025 财年的全球销售额为 3150 亿美元，现金流为 243 亿美元，远超特斯拉。  
- 预计到 2035 年，丰田的市值将超过特斯拉，成为无排放车辆的重要供应商。  

预测：10 年后有一只股票的价值将超过特斯拉