<p>财报季来临！上周，<strong>台积电</strong>（TSM 0.81%）公布了 2024 年第二季度的财务和运营结果。让我们来探讨一下台积电的第二季度报告。</p>
<p>接下来，我将深入一些更广泛的行业趋势，以帮助解释为什么该公司最新的季度业绩如此令人印象深刻，更重要的是，它如何为长期进一步增长做好准备。</p>
<h2>台积电刚刚发布了一个全面的强劲季度，且...</h2>
<p>台积电是领先芯片公司如 <strong>英伟达</strong>、<strong>超微半导体</strong> 和 <strong>博通</strong> 的重要供应商。此外，该公司的影响力超越了传统半导体业务，因为它还与科技巨头 <strong>苹果</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 建立了强大的合作关系。</p>
<p>在第二季度，该公司销售额超过 300 亿美元，这在很大程度上得益于对其 5nm 和 3nm 芯片节点的持续强劲需求。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3119d8b5f83c8dfd70935e477e4f56d3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="473" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3119d8b5f83c8dfd70935e477e4f56d3.png"/></p>
<p>TSM 收入（季度）数据来自 YCharts；EPS = 每股收益。</p>
<p>尽管公司的收入同比增长了 44%，但稳定改善的毛利率和严格的成本结构进一步推动了其底线的加速。在第二季度，每股收益（EPS）约为 2.50 美元，同比增长近 61%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU5NzcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTY4NTUxNDgyNi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="525" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU5NzcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTY4NTUxNDgyNi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>... 预测显示未来将有更多增长</h2>
<p>仅在 2025 年，云计算巨头 <strong>微软</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>，以及社交媒体帝国 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>，预计将共同拥有高达 3300 亿美元的资本支出（capex）。进一步说，管理咨询公司麦肯锡预测，未来十年对 AI 基础设施的投资——包括数据中心建设和芯片——预计将达到 6.7 万亿美元。</p>
<p>随着台积电在全球芯片代工市场中占据约 60% 的市场份额，且实现超过 40% 的收入增长，台积电似乎处于一个良好的位置，可以利用这些长期趋势并在未来几年内获得更多市场份额。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/78981d525afcc1a729770a56775fd62b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="524" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/78981d525afcc1a729770a56775fd62b.png"/></p>
<p>TSM 当前财政年度的收入预测；数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<h2>台积电的财报告诉我们关于 AI 需求的什么？</h2>
<p>对我来说，财报强劲的最简单解释是，AI 需求不仅强劲，而且正在加速。虽然增长会在季度之间波动，但我现在并不认为台积电是一只周期性的半导体股票。</p>
<p>相反，上述资本支出和基础设施趋势强调了 AI 增长对全球经济的重要性。该芯片制造商在边缘设备、高性能计算（HPC）和 AI 加速器方面的领先代工服务正处于这一长期演变的中心。</p>
<h2>现在台积电股票值得买吗？</h2>
<p>尽管公司增长惊人且前景强劲，台积电的前瞻市盈率（P/E）仅为 24。这不仅远低于历史水平，而且也相对于许多其他领先芯片股票而言是一个显著的折扣。</p>
<p>尽管怀疑者可能会引用芯片市场的周期性或与中国的潜在地缘政治紧张局势作为熊市叙事的一部分，但我认为台积电当前的财务状况及其未来轨迹无论如何都能自我说明。</p>
<p>在我看来，公司估值与其基本业务基本面之间的脱节可能表明投资者可能没有完全理解或欣赏其在更广泛芯片生态系统中的重要性。</p>
<p>我认为现在台积电的股票是个明智的选择，我认为公司的价格走势表明其被低估。拥有长期投资视野的投资者可能想考虑购买股票并紧紧持有，因为 AI 故事的基础设施篇章仍在继续书写。台积电在这些有利趋势中独特地定位，能够在未来几年内维持高水平的收入和利润增长。</p>

台积电

英伟达

苹果

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）公布了令人印象深刻的 2024 年第二季度业绩，销售额超过 300 亿美元，同比增长 44%。这一增长得益于对 5nm 和 3nm 芯片的强劲需求，特别是来自主要客户如英伟达和苹果的需求。TSMC 的每股收益几乎增长了 61%，达到约 2.50 美元。随着预测显示未来在人工智能基础设施方面将有显著投资，TSMC 在持续增长方面处于良好位置。尽管表现强劲，TSMC 的股票市盈率低于同行，暗示其可能被低估，是长期投资者的潜在买入机会</p>

<p>Earnings season is upon us! Last week, <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 0.81%) reported financial and operating results for the second quarter of 2024. Let's explore the Q2 report from TSMC (as the company is known for short).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>财报季来临！上周，<strong>台积电</strong>（TSM 0.81%）公布了 2024 年第二季度的财务和运营结果。让我们来探讨一下台积电的第二季度报告。</p>
</div><p>From there, I'll dive into some broader industry trends to help explain why the company's latest quarterly result was so impressive, and more importantly, how it is set up for even further growth in the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下来，我将深入一些更广泛的行业趋势，以帮助解释为什么该公司最新的季度业绩如此令人印象深刻，更重要的是，它如何为长期进一步增长做好准备。</p>
</div><h2>TSMC just posted a monster quarter all around, and...</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>台积电刚刚发布了一个全面的强劲季度，且...</h2>
</div><p>TSMC is a major supplier for leading chip companies such as <strong>Nvidia</strong>, <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>, and <strong>Broadcom</strong>. Moreover, the company's reach extends beyond traditional semiconductor businesses since it has also forged strong relationships with tech giants <strong>Apple</strong> and <strong>Amazon</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电是领先芯片公司如 <strong>英伟达</strong>、<strong>超微半导体</strong> 和 <strong>博通</strong> 的重要供应商。此外，该公司的影响力超越了传统半导体业务，因为它还与科技巨头 <strong>苹果</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 建立了强大的合作关系。</p>
</div><p>During the second quarter, the company generated more than $30 billion in sales, thanks in large part to continued robust demand for the company's 5nm and 3nm chip nodes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第二季度，该公司销售额超过 300 亿美元，这在很大程度上得益于对其 5nm 和 3nm 芯片节点的持续强劲需求。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3119d8b5f83c8dfd70935e477e4f56d3.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3119d8b5f83c8dfd70935e477e4f56d3.png"/></p>
<p>TSM Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts; EPS = earnings per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSM 收入（季度）数据来自 YCharts；EPS = 每股收益。</p>
</div><p>While the company's revenue grew 44% year over year, steadily improving gross margins and a disciplined cost structure fueled even more acceleration for its bottom line. During the second quarter, earnings per share (EPS) were roughly $2.50 -- representing nearly 61% growth year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管公司的收入同比增长了 44%，但稳定改善的毛利率和严格的成本结构进一步推动了其底线的加速。在第二季度，每股收益（EPS）约为 2.50 美元，同比增长近 61%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU5NzcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTY4NTUxNDgyNi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825977%2Fgettyimages-1685514826.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>... forecasts suggest much more growth is in store</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>... 预测显示未来将有更多增长</h2>
</div><p>In 2025 alone, cloud hyperscalers <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and Amazon, in combination with social media empire <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, are expected to collectively have up to $330 billion in capital expenditures (capex). Taking this one step further, management consulting firm McKinsey &amp; Company forecasts that investments in AI infrastructure -- which include data center buildouts and chips -- are expected to reach $6.7 trillion by next decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仅在 2025 年，云计算巨头 <strong>微软</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>，以及社交媒体帝国 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>，预计将共同拥有高达 3300 亿美元的资本支出（capex）。进一步说，管理咨询公司麦肯锡预测，未来十年对 AI 基础设施的投资——包括数据中心建设和芯片——预计将达到 6.7 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>With TSMC producing more than 40% revenue growth with an estimated 60% of the global chip foundry market, it appears well-positioned to capitalize on these secular tailwinds and acquire even more market share over the next several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着台积电在全球芯片代工市场中占据约 60% 的市场份额，且实现超过 40% 的收入增长，台积电似乎处于一个良好的位置，可以利用这些长期趋势并在未来几年内获得更多市场份额。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/78981d525afcc1a729770a56775fd62b.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/78981d525afcc1a729770a56775fd62b.png"/></p>
<p>TSM Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year; data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSM 当前财政年度的收入预测；数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>What does TSMC's earnings report tell us about AI demand?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>台积电的财报告诉我们关于 AI 需求的什么？</h2>
</div><p>To me, the simplest explanation of the blowout earnings report is that AI demand is not only strong, but it's also accelerating. While growth will fluctuate from quarter to quarter, I don't really see TSMC as a cyclical semiconductor stock at this point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对我来说，财报强劲的最简单解释是，AI 需求不仅强劲，而且正在加速。虽然增长会在季度之间波动，但我现在并不认为台积电是一只周期性的半导体股票。</p>
</div><p>Rather, the capex and infrastructure trends referenced above underscore how crucial AI growth is to the global economy at this point. The chipmaker's leading foundry services across edge devices, high-performance computing (HPC), and AI accelerators are at the center of this secular evolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，上述资本支出和基础设施趋势强调了 AI 增长对全球经济的重要性。该芯片制造商在边缘设备、高性能计算（HPC）和 AI 加速器方面的领先代工服务正处于这一长期演变的中心。</p>
</div><h2>Is Taiwan Semiconductor stock a buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在台积电股票值得买吗？</h2>
</div><p>Despite the company's jaw-dropping growth and robust outlook, TSMC trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple (P/E) of just 24. Not only is this much lower than historical levels, but it is also a meaningful discount to many other leading chip stocks, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管公司增长惊人且前景强劲，台积电的前瞻市盈率（P/E）仅为 24。这不仅远低于历史水平，而且也相对于许多其他领先芯片股票而言是一个显著的折扣。</p>
</div><p>While skeptics may cite the cyclicality of the chip market or potential geopolitical tensions with China as part of the bear narrative, I think TSMC's current financial profile and its future trajectory speak for themselves regardless of these risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管怀疑者可能会引用芯片市场的周期性或与中国的潜在地缘政治紧张局势作为熊市叙事的一部分，但我认为台积电当前的财务状况及其未来轨迹无论如何都能自我说明。</p>
</div><p>In my eyes, the disconnect between the company's valuation and its underlying business fundamentals could suggest that investors may not fully understand or appreciate the importance of its role in the broader chip ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，公司估值与其基本业务基本面之间的脱节可能表明投资者可能没有完全理解或欣赏其在更广泛芯片生态系统中的重要性。</p>
</div><p>I see TSMC stock as a no-brainer right now, and I think the company's price action suggests it is undervalued. Investors with a long-run time horizon might want to consider scooping up shares and holding on tight as the infrastructure chapter of the AI story continues to be written. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is uniquely positioned to ride these tailwinds and sustain high levels of revenue and profit growth for years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为现在台积电的股票是个明智的选择，我认为公司的价格走势表明其被低估。拥有长期投资视野的投资者可能想考虑购买股票并紧紧持有，因为 AI 故事的基础设施篇章仍在继续书写。台积电在这些有利趋势中独特地定位，能够在未来几年内维持高水平的收入和利润增长。</p>
</div>

The $30 Billion Quarter: What TSMC's Blowout AI Demand Tells Us

- 台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）第二季度营收超过 300 亿美元，年增 44%。  
- 预计 2025 年云计算巨头将有高达 3300 亿美元的资本支出，推动 TSMC 持续增长。  
- TSMC 在全球芯片代工市场占有 60%，未来有望进一步扩大市场份额。  

300 亿美元的季度：台积电爆炸性的 AI 需求告诉了我们什么