<p>五年前仅投资 1000 美元购买 <strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA -0.12%) 的股票，现在的价值已达到 16000 美元。该股票在此期间的显著上涨是有理由的，因为英伟达凭借人工智能（AI）实现了收入和盈利的显著增长。</p>
<p>然而，投资者现在可能会想，英伟达是否能够在未来五年继续保持顶级成长股的地位。毕竟，它现在是全球市值超过 4 万亿美元的最大公司。这庞大的市值使得英伟达在未来五年内复制其多倍回报变得困难，因为其股价若上涨 16 倍，将使市值超过 64 万亿美元。</p>
<p>预计到 2028 年，全球经济将达到 144.5 万亿美元。因此，英伟达占全球国内生产总值（GDP）近 45% 似乎是荒谬的，而其目前的份额约为 3.5%。</p>
<p>然而，尽管过去五年英伟达取得了惊人的收益，但不要惊讶于其市值仍可能进一步上升。让我们看看这家半导体巨头到 2030 年可能带来的潜在上行空间。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYyNTYvcGVyc29uLWdhbWluZy1jb21wdXRlci5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYyNTYvcGVyc29uLWdhbWluZy1jb21wdXRlci5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>英伟达的业务仍有很大的增长空间</h2>
<p>分析师预计英伟达在当前财政年度（将于 2026 年 1 月结束）将实现 2000 亿美元的收入。这比上一财政年度增长 53%。英伟达已经实现的这一庞大收入基础解释了为什么分析师预计英伟达的收入增长将在未来几个财政年度放缓。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/53c43186134cd70b02b0f0ec5edc47a8.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="380" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/53c43186134cd70b02b0f0ec5edc47a8.png"/></p>
<p>当前财政年度的 NVDA 收入预估数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>但分析师们可能忽视了数据中心的巨大机会，这可能帮助英伟达轻松超出预期。预计到 2030 年，将在数据中心上花费大量资金，以支持 AI 和非 AI 工作负载。咨询公司麦肯锡预测，到 2030 年，数据中心基础设施的总支出将达到 6.7 万亿美元，其中四分之三预计将用于 AI 特定工作负载。</p>
<p>同样，在预计用于 AI 数据中心支出的 5.2 万亿美元中，麦肯锡表示，31 万亿美元将用于 “技术开发者和设计师，他们为数据中心生产芯片和计算硬件”。英伟达在 AI 芯片市场的领导地位意味着它在未来能够充分利用这一巨大的终端市场机会。</p>
<p>根据一项估计，去年 GPU 占整体 AI 加速器市场的近 60%。假设到 2030 年，由于定制 AI 加速器的日益普及，GPU 的市场份额降至 40%，它们仍可能占据超过 1.2 万亿美元的收入。去年，英伟达控制了 92% 的 AI GPU 市场。</p>
<p><strong>AMD</strong> 是该市场上最接近的竞争对手，但其数据中心 GPU 收入远不及英伟达。当然，AMD 的产品开发举措可能帮助其缩小与英伟达的技术差距，但后者在供应链方面享有优势。</p>
<p>有报道称，英伟达的代工合作伙伴 <strong>台积电</strong> 已将 70% 的先进芯片封装产能分配给英伟达，计划到 2025 年完成。这是个大事，因为先进封装是生产 AI 芯片平台的关键。因此，英伟达失去对供应链和 AI 芯片市场的控制似乎有些困难。</p>
<p>这家芯片设计公司拥有超过 430 亿美元的净现金储备。这使得英伟达在考虑到 AMD 的现金储备甚至不到 10% 时，能够为自己确保大部分 AI 供应链。因此，英伟达在未来五年内仍能控制 AI 芯片市场的很大份额，这可能会转化为健康的上行空间。</p>
<h2>投资者可以期待多少上行空间？</h2>
<p>尽管英伟达在 AI 芯片领域高于其竞争对手，但我们将假设其在 AI GPU 市场的份额在五年后降至 50%。即使如此，公司的数据中心收入可能达到 6000 亿美元（基于之前计算的 2030 年 AI GPU 市场 1.2 万亿美元的估计）。</p>
<p>数据中心业务在当前财政年度第一季度占英伟达收入的 88%。如果英伟达在本财政年度确实实现 2000 亿美元的收入，而数据中心部门占其中的 88%，那么其来自数据中心的收入可能接近 1800 亿美元。因此，英伟达的数据中心收入在未来五年内可能增长超过 3 倍，达到 6000 亿美元（如前段所估计）。</p>
<p>如果公司在五年后没有来自其他部门的收入，仅依赖数据中心，它仍然可以实现健康的股价增长。英伟达的五年平均销售倍数接近 24。如果在五年后以该倍数的一半交易，其市值可能基于 6000 亿美元的收入预估跃升至 7.2 万亿美元。</p>
<p>这将比当前水平增长 80%，这意味着投资者仍然可以考虑购买这只 AI 股票，因为它似乎在未来五年内有更大的上行空间。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达的股票在过去五年中从 1,000 美元飙升至 16,000 美元，这一增长主要得益于与人工智能相关的显著收入增长。市值超过 4 万亿美元的英伟达，分析师对其能否复制这样的增长表示质疑。尽管预计收入增长放缓，英伟达仍然处于有利位置，可以从到 2030 年 6.7 万亿美元的数据中心投资中受益，特别是在人工智能工作负载方面。英伟达在人工智能 GPU 领域占据 92% 的市场份额，其数据中心收入在五年内可能会增长三倍，达到 6,000 亿美元，显示出持续增长的强大潜力</p>

<p>An investment of just $1,000 in shares of <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.12%) five years ago is now worth $16,000 as of this writing. The stock's outstanding jump during this period is justified as Nvidia has delivered a remarkable increase in its revenue and earnings, thanks to artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>五年前仅投资 1000 美元购买 <strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA -0.12%) 的股票，现在的价值已达到 16000 美元。该股票在此期间的显著上涨是有理由的，因为英伟达凭借人工智能（AI）实现了收入和盈利的显著增长。</p>
</div><p>Investors, however, may now be wondering if Nvidia can continue to remain a top growth stock over the next five years as well. After all, it is now the largest company in the world with a market cap of more than $4 trillion. This huge market cap makes it difficult for Nvidia to replicate its multibagger returns over the next five years, as a 16x jump in its share price would send its market cap beyond $64 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投资者现在可能会想，英伟达是否能够在未来五年继续保持顶级成长股的地位。毕竟，它现在是全球市值超过 4 万亿美元的最大公司。这庞大的市值使得英伟达在未来五年内复制其多倍回报变得困难，因为其股价若上涨 16 倍，将使市值超过 64 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The global economy is expected to be worth $144.5 trillion in 2028. So, Nvidia accounting for nearly 45% of the global gross domestic product (GDP) seems absurd as compared to its current share of around 3.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计到 2028 年，全球经济将达到 144.5 万亿美元。因此，英伟达占全球国内生产总值（GDP）近 45% 似乎是荒谬的，而其目前的份额约为 3.5%。</p>
</div><p>However, don't be surprised to see Nvidia's market cap rise higher despite the stunning gains it has delivered in the past five years. Let's look at the potential upside this semiconductor giant could deliver by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，尽管过去五年英伟达取得了惊人的收益，但不要惊讶于其市值仍可能进一步上升。让我们看看这家半导体巨头到 2030 年可能带来的潜在上行空间。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYyNTYvcGVyc29uLWdhbWluZy1jb21wdXRlci5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F826256%2Fperson-gaming-computer.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's business still has a lot of room for growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的业务仍有很大的增长空间</h2>
</div><p>Analysts are expecting Nvidia to deliver $200 billion in revenue in the current fiscal year (which will end in January 2026). That would be an improvement of 53% from the previous fiscal year. This huge revenue base that Nvidia has already achieved explains why analysts are projecting a slowdown in Nvidia's revenue growth over the next couple of fiscal years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师预计英伟达在当前财政年度（将于 2026 年 1 月结束）将实现 2000 亿美元的收入。这比上一财政年度增长 53%。英伟达已经实现的这一庞大收入基础解释了为什么分析师预计英伟达的收入增长将在未来几个财政年度放缓。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/53c43186134cd70b02b0f0ec5edc47a8.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/53c43186134cd70b02b0f0ec5edc47a8.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前财政年度的 NVDA 收入预估数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>But then, analysts are probably overlooking the huge opportunity in data centers that could help Nvidia easily exceed expectations. A lot of money is set to be spent on data centers through 2030 to support both AI and non-AI workloads. Consulting firm McKinsey is forecasting total spending of $6.7 trillion on data center infrastructure through 2030, with three-fourths of that expected to be spent on AI-specific workloads.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但分析师们可能忽视了数据中心的巨大机会，这可能帮助英伟达轻松超出预期。预计到 2030 年，将在数据中心上花费大量资金，以支持 AI 和非 AI 工作负载。咨询公司麦肯锡预测，到 2030 年，数据中心基础设施的总支出将达到 6.7 万亿美元，其中四分之三预计将用于 AI 特定工作负载。</p>
</div><p>Again, of the $5.2 trillion that's projected to be allocated toward AI-focused data center spending, $3.1 trillion will go toward &#34;technology developers and designers, which produce chips and computing hardware for data centers,&#34; as per McKinsey. Nvidia's leadership position in the AI chip market means that it is in a solid position to capitalize on this huge end-market opportunity going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样，在预计用于 AI 数据中心支出的 5.2 万亿美元中，麦肯锡表示，31 万亿美元将用于 “技术开发者和设计师，他们为数据中心生产芯片和计算硬件”。英伟达在 AI 芯片市场的领导地位意味着它在未来能够充分利用这一巨大的终端市场机会。</p>
</div><p>According to one estimate, GPUs accounted for almost 60% of the overall AI accelerator market last year. Assuming that the share of GPUs falls to even 40% in 2030 thanks to the rising popularity of custom AI accelerators, they could still account for more than $1.2 trillion in revenue. Nvidia controlled 92% of the AI GPU market last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据一项估计，去年 GPU 占整体 AI 加速器市场的近 60%。假设到 2030 年，由于定制 AI 加速器的日益普及，GPU 的市场份额降至 40%，它们仍可能占据超过 1.2 万亿美元的收入。去年，英伟达控制了 92% 的 AI GPU 市场。</p>
</div><p><strong>AMD</strong> is its closest competitor in this market, but its data center GPU revenue is nowhere near Nvidia's. Of course, AMD's product development moves could help it close the technology gap with Nvidia, but the latter enjoys an advantage on the supply chain front.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>AMD</strong> 是该市场上最接近的竞争对手，但其数据中心 GPU 收入远不及英伟达。当然，AMD 的产品开发举措可能帮助其缩小与英伟达的技术差距，但后者在供应链方面享有优势。</p>
</div><p>Reports suggest that Nvidia's foundry partner <strong>TSMC</strong> has allocated 70% of its advanced chip packaging capacity to the former for 2025. That's a big deal, as advanced packaging is key to the production of AI chip platforms. As such, the possibility of Nvidia losing control over the supply chain and the AI chip market seems a bit difficult.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有报道称，英伟达的代工合作伙伴 <strong>台积电</strong> 已将 70% 的先进芯片封装产能分配给英伟达，计划到 2025 年完成。这是个大事，因为先进封装是生产 AI 芯片平台的关键。因此，英伟达失去对供应链和 AI 芯片市场的控制似乎有些困难。</p>
</div><p>The chip designer has a net cash position of more than $43 billion at its disposal. This allows Nvidia to secure a large part of the AI supply chain for itself when we consider that AMD doesn't have even 10% of that amount at its disposal. As such, Nvidia can continue to control a big share of the AI chip market over the next five years, and that's likely to translate into healthy upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家芯片设计公司拥有超过 430 亿美元的净现金储备。这使得英伟达在考虑到 AMD 的现金储备甚至不到 10% 时，能够为自己确保大部分 AI 供应链。因此，英伟达在未来五年内仍能控制 AI 芯片市场的很大份额，这可能会转化为健康的上行空间。</p>
</div><h2>How much upside can investors expect?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者可以期待多少上行空间？</h2>
</div><p>Though Nvidia towers above its competitors in AI chips, we are going to assume that its market share falls to 50% in AI GPUs after five years. Even if that's the case, the company's data center revenue could hit $600 billion (based on the $1.2 trillion estimate of the AI GPU market in 2030 calculated earlier).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管英伟达在 AI 芯片领域高于其竞争对手，但我们将假设其在 AI GPU 市场的份额在五年后降至 50%。即使如此，公司的数据中心收入可能达到 6000 亿美元（基于之前计算的 2030 年 AI GPU 市场 1.2 万亿美元的估计）。</p>
</div><p>The data center business produced 88% of Nvidia's revenue in the first quarter of the current fiscal year. If Nvidia indeed clocks $200 billion in revenue in the ongoing fiscal year and the data center segment accounts for 88% of that, its revenue from data centers could hit almost $180 billion. So, Nvidia's data center revenue could grow by more than 3x in the next five years to $600 billion (as we estimated in the previous paragraph).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据中心业务在当前财政年度第一季度占英伟达收入的 88%。如果英伟达在本财政年度确实实现 2000 亿美元的收入，而数据中心部门占其中的 88%，那么其来自数据中心的收入可能接近 1800 亿美元。因此，英伟达的数据中心收入在未来五年内可能增长超过 3 倍，达到 6000 亿美元（如前段所估计）。</p>
</div><p>If the company doesn't get any revenue from its other segments and solely relies on data centers after five years, it could still deliver healthy stock price gains. Nvidia has a five-year average sales multiple of almost 24. If it trades at half of that multiple after five years, its market cap could jump to $7.2 trillion based on the $600 billion revenue estimate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果公司在五年后没有来自其他部门的收入，仅依赖数据中心，它仍然可以实现健康的股价增长。英伟达的五年平均销售倍数接近 24。如果在五年后以该倍数的一半交易，其市值可能基于 6000 亿美元的收入预估跃升至 7.2 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>That would be an 80% increase from current levels, which means that investors can still consider buying this AI stock as it seems built for more upside over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这将比当前水平增长 80%，这意味着投资者仍然可以考虑购买这只 AI 股票，因为它似乎在未来五年内有更大的上行空间。</p>
</div>

Where Will Nvidia Stock Be in 5 Years?

- Nvidia 的市值在过去五年内从 1,000 美元增至 16,000 美元。  
- 分析师预计其 2026 财年收入将达 2,000 亿美元，增长 53%。  
- 数据中心业务可能推动未来五年股价上涨 80%。

五年后英伟达的股票会达到什么水平？