<p>华尔街曾认为挣扎中的房地产电子商务公司 <strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>(OPEN 4.34%) 已经无望。然而，股票在不到一个月的时间里突然飙升超过 500%。</p>
<p>发生了什么？一位对冲基金经理最近通过社交媒体宣布对该股票的投资，并设定了 82 美元的目标价，这引发了对这家在低迷住房市场中挣扎的公司的兴趣。</p>
<p>但追逐这种势头是否明智，还是应该选择一个经过验证的电子商务赢家 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -0.33%) 呢？</p>
<p>让我们仔细看看 Opendoor 的前景，并确定这两只热门成长股中哪一只现在更值得购买。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUxMjEvaG9tZS1zb2xkLXJlYWwtZXN0YXRlLWZvci1zYWxlLWhhcHB5LWZhbWlseS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUxMjEvaG9tZS1zb2xkLXJlYWwtZXN0YXRlLWZvci1zYWxlLWhhcHB5LWZhbWlseS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Opendoor Technologies 是否准备好复苏？</h2>
<p>Opendoor Technologies 旨在成为住房市场的亚马逊，通过 iBuying 这一过程，公司通过在线市场购买和转售房屋。该公司于 2020 年底通过特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）合并上市，正值 0% 利率时期，最终导致高通胀并促使美联储大幅加息。</p>
<p>随之而来的抵押贷款利率飙升（加上已经较高的房价）使住房市场急剧放缓，给 Opendoor 带来了巨大的问题，该公司在出售房屋时遭受了重大损失。自那时以来，Opendoor 的股票持续下跌。</p>
<p>对冲基金经理 Eric Jackson 在他的 X 帖子中详细说明，他认为公司的削减成本、与代理商合作的转变以及缺乏直接竞争对手为未来几年提供了显著的上行空间，并将其与 <strong>Carvana</strong> 的显著逆转进行了比较。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>在过去一个月里，我在谈论 $BTQQF $IREN 和 $CIFR 时，X 的印象激增，因为每个人都在寻找下一个 $CVNA。</p>
<p>我们认为我们刚刚找到了另一个。@EMJCapital 已经在 $OPEN 上建立了头寸——我们相信它在未来几年可能会成为 100 倍股....</p>
<p>-- Eric Jackson (@ericjackson) 2025 年 7 月 14 日</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Eric Jackson 承认与 Opendoor 股票相关的风险，但为一家公司的高目标价引发了投资者对该股票的兴趣，使其飙升。</p>
<h2>然而，亚马逊提供了更大的确定性，尽管它可能不再是 100 倍股</h2>
<p>亚马逊是全球最知名的公司之一，是一个更安全的股票投资。这一点不需要火箭科学家来判断。但亚马逊庞大的 2.4 万亿美元市值也意味着它的上行潜力远不及 Opendoor。</p>
<p>也就是说，该公司仍然有增长空间。电子商务在美国的零售总支出中占比不到五分之一，而亚马逊的盈利云业务——亚马逊网络服务（AWS）预计将在未来十年及更长时间内显著增长，因为人工智能（AI）推动了云使用的增加。</p>
<p>分析师预计亚马逊在未来三到五年内的年均收益增长将达到 21%。假设股票的估值保持不变，这一增长将在不到四年的时间内使股票价格翻倍。这不是 100 倍股，但大多数投资者可能会乐于接受这样的回报。</p>
<h2>有时候，手中的鸟胜过林中的百鸟</h2>
<p>比较两只截然不同的电子商务股票归结为这一点：亚马逊在未来三到五年内翻倍的概率远大于 Opendoor 增长 100 倍的概率。</p>
<p>Opendoor 的核心 iBuying 业务正在稳步拖累公司，持续消耗公司的账面价值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/41fb27ca91ea3c7d2e532640ecbecdf2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/41fb27ca91ea3c7d2e532640ecbecdf2.png"/></p>
<p>OPEN 有形账面价值（季度）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>iBuying 过程是一种低利润的商业模式，在未售出的房屋停留在资产负债表上时占用了大量资本。</p>
<p>Opendoor 并没有足够快地购买和转售库存，也没有通过足够的高利润附加服务来完善其 iBuying 模型，使公司在这一点上可持续。在一个受到可负担性问题困扰的低迷住房市场中，这可能仍然是一场艰苦的斗争。</p>
<p>最初，房地产的亚马逊式电子商务体验听起来不错，但并没有转化为商业成功。在这里没有任何变化之前，Opendoor 面临着巨大的风险，使得以高于其账面价值的价格购买该股票变得难以合理化。</p>
<p>这就像买彩票。某人，某处，可能会赢，但这不是赚钱的好方法。</p>
<p>我不知道 Opendoor 可能会涨到多高。市场已经变得相当狂热，这对投机行为是个好兆头。Opendoor 将于 8 月 5 日公布财报。该公司需要提供稳健的，或至少是改善的商业基本面；否则，股票可能会迅速反转。</p>
<p>我所知道的是，亚马逊是更优秀的企业，现在更值得购买的成长股。根本没有可比性。</p>

亚马逊

OPEN

亚马逊每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>这篇文章比较了两只电子商务股票：Opendoor Technologies 和亚马逊。尽管 Opendoor 在房地产市场面临困难，但在一位对冲基金经理设定了高价目标后，其股票飙升超过 500%。分析师指出，尽管 Opendoor 具有潜力，但其 iBuying 模式面临重大风险。相比之下，亚马逊凭借稳定的增长前景和强大的市场地位，被认为是更安全的投资。文章最后得出结论，考虑到亚马逊相比于 Opendoor 的投机性质，其更可靠的前景使得亚马逊成为更优的增长选择</p>

<p>Wall Street thought struggling real estate e-commerce company <strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>(OPEN 4.34%) was down and out. Suddenly, the stock has surged over 500% in less than a month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街曾认为挣扎中的房地产电子商务公司 <strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>(OPEN 4.34%) 已经无望。然而，股票在不到一个月的时间里突然飙升超过 500%。</p>
</div><p>What's going on? A hedge fund manager recently announced an investment in the stock via social media, setting an $82 price target for shares that ignited interest in a company that has struggled in a slow housing market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>发生了什么？一位对冲基金经理最近通过社交媒体宣布对该股票的投资，并设定了 82 美元的目标价，这引发了对这家在低迷住房市场中挣扎的公司的兴趣。</p>
</div><p>But is it wiser to chase the momentum, or to look to a proven e-commerce winner in <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.33%) instead?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但追逐这种势头是否明智，还是应该选择一个经过验证的电子商务赢家 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -0.33%) 呢？</p>
</div><p>Let's take a closer look at Opendoor's prospects and determine which of these two hot growth stocks is the better buy right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们仔细看看 Opendoor 的前景，并确定这两只热门成长股中哪一只现在更值得购买。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUxMjEvaG9tZS1zb2xkLXJlYWwtZXN0YXRlLWZvci1zYWxlLWhhcHB5LWZhbWlseS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825121%2Fhome-sold-real-estate-for-sale-happy-family.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is Opendoor Technologies poised for a comeback?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Opendoor Technologies 是否准备好复苏？</h2>
</div><p>Opendoor Technologies aimed to become the housing market's version of Amazon with iBuying, a process by which a company buys and resells homes through an online marketplace. The company went public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger in late 2020, amid a period of 0% interest rates that ultimately led to high inflation and prompted the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Opendoor Technologies 旨在成为住房市场的亚马逊，通过 iBuying 这一过程，公司通过在线市场购买和转售房屋。该公司于 2020 年底通过特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）合并上市，正值 0% 利率时期，最终导致高通胀并促使美联储大幅加息。</p>
</div><p>The resulting spike in mortgage rates (plus already higher home prices) slammed the brakes on the housing market, creating tremendous problems for Opendoor, which took significant losses on homes it struggled to sell for a profit. Opendoor's stock has cratered since then as losses continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随之而来的抵押贷款利率飙升（加上已经较高的房价）使住房市场急剧放缓，给 Opendoor 带来了巨大的问题，该公司在出售房屋时遭受了重大损失。自那时以来，Opendoor 的股票持续下跌。</p>
</div><p>Hedge fund manager Eric Jackson elaborated in his post on X that he believes the company's cost-cutting, pivot to partnering with agents, and lack of direct competitors offer a path to significant upside over the coming years, comparing it to the remarkable turnaround that <strong>Carvana</strong> achieved.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对冲基金经理 Eric Jackson 在他的 X 帖子中详细说明，他认为公司的削减成本、与代理商合作的转变以及缺乏直接竞争对手为未来几年提供了显著的上行空间，并将其与 <strong>Carvana</strong> 的显著逆转进行了比较。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Over the last month, my X impressions have exploded talking about $BTQQF $IREN and $CIFR because everyone is looking for the next $CVNA.</p>
<p>We think we just found another.@EMJCapital has taken a position in $OPEN -- and we believe it could be a 100-bagger over the next few years....</p>
<p>-- Eric Jackson (@ericjackson) July 14, 2025</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>在过去一个月里，我在谈论 $BTQQF $IREN 和 $CIFR 时，X 的印象激增，因为每个人都在寻找下一个 $CVNA。</p>
<p>我们认为我们刚刚找到了另一个。@EMJCapital 已经在 $OPEN 上建立了头寸——我们相信它在未来几年可能会成为 100 倍股....</p>
<p>-- Eric Jackson (@ericjackson) 2025 年 7 月 14 日</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Eric Jackson acknowledges the risks associated with Opendoor stock, but setting such a high target for a company has spiked investor interest in the stock, sending it soaring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Eric Jackson 承认与 Opendoor 股票相关的风险，但为一家公司的高目标价引发了投资者对该股票的兴趣，使其飙升。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon offers far more certainty, though it's probably not a 100-bagger anymore</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>然而，亚马逊提供了更大的确定性，尽管它可能不再是 100 倍股</h2>
</div><p>Amazon, one of the world's most prominent companies, is a safer stock to own. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out. But Amazon's massive $2.4 trillion market capitalization also means it has nowhere near the upside potential Opendoor does.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊是全球最知名的公司之一，是一个更安全的股票投资。这一点不需要火箭科学家来判断。但亚马逊庞大的 2.4 万亿美元市值也意味着它的上行潜力远不及 Opendoor。</p>
</div><p>That said, the company still has room for growth. E-commerce accounts for less than a fifth of total retail spending in the United States, and Amazon's lucrative cloud unit, Amazon Web Services (AWS), is poised to grow significantly over the coming decade and beyond as artificial intelligence (AI) drives increased cloud usage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，该公司仍然有增长空间。电子商务在美国的零售总支出中占比不到五分之一，而亚马逊的盈利云业务——亚马逊网络服务（AWS）预计将在未来十年及更长时间内显著增长，因为人工智能（AI）推动了云使用的增加。</p>
</div><p>Analysts estimate Amazon will grow earnings by an average of 21% annually over the next three to five years. Assuming the stock's valuation remains the same, that growth would double the stock price in just under four years. That's no 100-bagger, but most investors would probably take those returns with a smile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师预计亚马逊在未来三到五年内的年均收益增长将达到 21%。假设股票的估值保持不变，这一增长将在不到四年的时间内使股票价格翻倍。这不是 100 倍股，但大多数投资者可能会乐于接受这样的回报。</p>
</div><h2>Sometimes, a bird in the hand is worth 100 in the bush</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>有时候，手中的鸟胜过林中的百鸟</h2>
</div><p>Comparing two very different e-commerce stocks boils down to this: The probability that Amazon doubles in value over the next three to five years is far greater than the probability that Opendoor increases by 100 times.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比较两只截然不同的电子商务股票归结为这一点：亚马逊在未来三到五年内翻倍的概率远大于 Opendoor 增长 100 倍的概率。</p>
</div><p>Opendoor's core iBuying business is steadily dragging the company down, steadily depleting the company's book value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Opendoor 的核心 iBuying 业务正在稳步拖累公司，持续消耗公司的账面价值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/41fb27ca91ea3c7d2e532640ecbecdf2.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/41fb27ca91ea3c7d2e532640ecbecdf2.png"/></p>
<p>OPEN Tangible Book Value (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OPEN 有形账面价值（季度）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>The iBuying process is a low-margin business model that ties up a significant amount of capital while unsold houses sit on the balance sheet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>iBuying 过程是一种低利润的商业模式，在未售出的房屋停留在资产负债表上时占用了大量资本。</p>
</div><p>Opendoor isn't buying and reselling inventory fast enough, or fleshing out its iBuying model with enough higher-margin add-on services to make the company sustainable to this point. It could remain an uphill battle in a slow housing market plagued by affordability issues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Opendoor 并没有足够快地购买和转售库存，也没有通过足够的高利润附加服务来完善其 iBuying 模型，使公司在这一点上可持续。在一个受到可负担性问题困扰的低迷住房市场中，这可能仍然是一场艰苦的斗争。</p>
</div><p>The idea of an Amazon-like e-commerce experience for real estate sounds good at first, but it hasn't translated to business success. Until something changes here, Opendoor faces substantial risks that make it hard to justify buying the stock at a premium to its book value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最初，房地产的亚马逊式电子商务体验听起来不错，但并没有转化为商业成功。在这里没有任何变化之前，Opendoor 面临着巨大的风险，使得以高于其账面价值的价格购买该股票变得难以合理化。</p>
</div><p>It's like playing the lottery. Someone, somewhere, may win, but it's a terrible way to try and make money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就像买彩票。某人，某处，可能会赢，但这不是赚钱的好方法。</p>
</div><p>I don't know how high Opendoor may go. The market has become quite euphoric, which bodes well for speculative behavior. Opendoor announces earnings on Aug. 5. The company needs to deliver solid, or at least improving, business fundamentals; otherwise, the stock could easily reverse course rather quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不知道 Opendoor 可能会涨到多高。市场已经变得相当狂热，这对投机行为是个好兆头。Opendoor 将于 8 月 5 日公布财报。该公司需要提供稳健的，或至少是改善的商业基本面；否则，股票可能会迅速反转。</p>
</div><p>What I do know is that Amazon is the superior business and the better growth stock to buy right now. It's not even close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我所知道的是，亚马逊是更优秀的企业，现在更值得购买的成长股。根本没有可比性。</p>
</div>

Best Stock to Buy Right Now: Amazon vs. Opendoor Technologies

- Opendoor Technologies 股票在一个月内上涨超过 500%。  
- 对冲基金经理的投资引发了市场关注，设定了 82 美元的目标价。  
- 相比之下，亚马逊提供更大的稳定性和增长潜力。  

目前最值得购买的股票：亚马逊与 Opendoor Technologies