<p>除了 <strong>英伟达</strong>，我认为没有其他公司像数据挖掘专家 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR 2.59%）那样受益于人工智能（AI）革命的顺风。</p>
<p>在过去三年中，Palantir 的股价上涨超过 1300%。仅在今年，Palantir 的股票就飙升了 97%。为了更好地理解这一点，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 在 2025 年甚至没有实现 10% 的涨幅。</p>
<p>虽然跟随这种势头以期获得更多超额收益可能很诱人，但聪明的投资者明白，希望并不是一个真正的策略。</p>
<p>让我们探讨一下 Palantir 这一代际性增长背后的催化剂，并评估一些近期的交易活动，以帮助判断 Palantir 的股票是否可能进一步上涨。</p>
<h2>Palantir 的前所未有的增长</h2>
<p>当人工智能在 2022 年底和 2023 年初首次开始作为下一个重大趋势出现时，投资者不断被关于大型科技公司在这一领域的引人注目的投资的新闻轰炸。<strong>微软</strong> 向 OpenAI（ChatGPT 的制造商）投入了 100 亿美元。<strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 也向一个名为 Anthropic 的竞争平台投资了巨额资金。<strong>特斯拉</strong> 则在宣传其在自动驾驶汽车和类人机器人方面的进展。你可以理解，这一人工智能叙事在很大程度上依赖于大型科技公司的举动。</p>
<p>但在此背景下，Palantir 正在不断发展。2023 年 4 月，该公司推出了其第四个主要软件套件——Palantir 人工智能平台（AIP）。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e8bc1eca73150df0b316c23ffcef0179.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e8bc1eca73150df0b316c23ffcef0179.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR 收入（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>如上图所示，在 AIP 发布之前，Palantir 是一家相对缓慢增长、现金消耗的企业。但自 AIP 推出以来，Palantir 的收入显著加速。此外，该公司能够实现改善的单位经济，标志着其全面转向正净收入，并产生数十亿美元的自由现金流。</p>
<p>截至 2022 年底，Palantir 拥有 367 个客户。截至今年第一季度末，Palantir 的客户总数达到了 769 个。更令人印象深刻的是，该公司的商业客户（非政府）在过去几年中增长了两倍以上。</p>
<p>在我看来，AIP 为 Palantir 提供了一个扩展其在美国军方联邦合同之外的业务的机会，而这正是 Palantir 最为人知的。AIP 代表了从国防承包商向更普遍的软件平台的转变，能够渗透到私营部门，尽管面临来自 <strong>Salesforce</strong> 或 <strong>SAP</strong> 等大型公司的激烈竞争。</p>
<p>作为一名 Palantir 的支持者，我对管理层能够灵活应对大型科技公司并一次又一次地实现高增长目标感到震惊。但作为投资者，我不禁想知道公司的股价走势是否可持续。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYwNzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTgyMTg2ODQ5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYwNzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTgyMTg2ODQ5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>华尔街是否在向投资者传达某种信息？</h2>
<p>除了分析财务趋势和运营指标外，投资者还可以通过倾听华尔街分析师对公司的看法，或深入研究知名投资者的交易活动来增强尽职调查过程。得益于一种名为 13F 表格的巧妙工具，投资者可以访问对对冲基金在特定季度内所有买卖的逐项细分。</p>
<p>在第一季度，著名亿万富翁投资者 Stanley Druckenmiller 出售了其基金的 Palantir 持仓。此外，Cathie Wood 也在减少 Ark 投资组合中对 Palantir 的敞口。</p>
<p>另一方面，亿万富翁投资者 Ken Griffin 和 Israel Englander 在第一季度都增加了各自基金的 Palantir 持仓。鉴于这些动态，可能很难判断华尔街对 Palantir 的真实看法。</p>
<p>我认为，鉴于上述细节，有一些细微之处需要指出。首先，Druckenmiller 和 Wood 过去都曾进出 Palantir 股票——这并不是他们第一次减少对这一数据分析明星的敞口。</p>
<p>此外，我认为 Griffin 和 Englander 的活动应该谨慎看待。这两位投资者管理着高度复杂的多策略对冲基金。偶尔，这些活动可能包括作为市场做市商。</p>
<p>尽管 Palantir 股票在 Griffin 的 Citadel 和 Englander 的 Millennium Management 投资组合中持有似乎是看涨的，但我并不完全认同这种说法。这两只基金并不以长期持有头寸而闻名。</p>
<p>此外，作为一家拥有多个不同团队和目标的多策略基金，我认为 Citadel 和 Millennium 在持有像 Palantir 这样波动性较大的成长股时，很可能有一个分层和复杂的对冲策略。</p>
<h2>到 2025 年底，Palantir 的股票会在哪里？</h2>
<p>下图展示了过去几年 Palantir 股票的机构买卖情况。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/af6df73cfdfd8e68acbbf8dac2a99286.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/af6df73cfdfd8e68acbbf8dac2a99286.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR 被机构投资者购买的股票数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>鉴于购买（紫线）仍高于销售（橙线），这可能表明 Palantir 仍然是机构投资组合中的热门选择。然而，正如我之前所表达的，并非所有对冲基金和资金经理都有相同的策略。换句话说，这些高水平的购买可能是更广泛、更复杂的交易策略的一部分，而不一定是对长期积累的认可。</p>
<p>在过去几个月中，Palantir 的股票变得越来越昂贵。事实上，该公司的交易价格远高于互联网泡沫或 COVID-19 泡沫期间的水平。</p>
<p>虽然无法确切知道到年底时 Palantir 股票的交易情况，但聪明的投资者知道，任何东西都不可能永远直线上涨。</p>
<p>投资者对 Palantir 前景的感受的一个良好指标应该是在公司几周后公布第二季度财报时出现。提醒一下，在公司第一季度的出色财报公布后，股价曾短暂暴跌。随着每次财报的发布，市场预期在上升，我不会感到惊讶，如果 Palantir 股票再次下跌——即使它的第二季度业绩非常出色。</p>
<p>考虑到机构买卖之间的趋同，加上 Palantir 日益昂贵的估值，我在此时不禁感到谨慎。我确实认为，估值修正可能会在早晚发生，如果到年底时股价大幅下跌，我也不会感到惊讶。</p>

PLTR

<p>Palantir Technologies 今年的股价增长了近 100%，在过去三年中更是飙升了惊人的 1,300%，这主要得益于人工智能革命。其人工智能平台（AIP）的推出显著推动了收入和客户增长。然而，华尔街发出的混合信号，包括一些知名投资者出售股份，而其他投资者则增加持仓，这引发了对这种增长可持续性的质疑。分析师正在评估 Palantir 的股票在竞争和市场动态中是否能够保持其上升轨迹</p>

<p>Outside of <strong>Nvidia</strong>, I'd argue that no other company has benefited from the tailwinds of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution as much as data mining specialist <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 2.59%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了 <strong>英伟达</strong>，我认为没有其他公司像数据挖掘专家 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR 2.59%）那样受益于人工智能（AI）革命的顺风。</p>
</div><p>Over the last three years, shares of Palantir have gained more than 1,300%. Just this year alone, Palantir stock has rocketed by 97%. To put that into perspective, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> and <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> indexes haven't even posted gains of 10% in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去三年中，Palantir 的股价上涨超过 1300%。仅在今年，Palantir 的股票就飙升了 97%。为了更好地理解这一点，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 在 2025 年甚至没有实现 10% 的涨幅。</p>
</div><p>While it can be tempting to follow the momentum in hopes of more outsize gains, smart investors understand that hope is not a real strategy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然跟随这种势头以期获得更多超额收益可能很诱人，但聪明的投资者明白，希望并不是一个真正的策略。</p>
</div><p>Let's explore the catalysts behind Palantir's generational run, and assess some recent trading activity to help discern whether Palantir stock could be headed even higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们探讨一下 Palantir 这一代际性增长背后的催化剂，并评估一些近期的交易活动，以帮助判断 Palantir 的股票是否可能进一步上涨。</p>
</div><h2>The unprecedented rise in Palantir</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir 的前所未有的增长</h2>
</div><p>When AI first started to emerge as the next megatrend during late 2022 and early 2023, investors were consistently bombarded with news around big tech's splashy investments in the space. <strong>Microsoft</strong> plowed $10 billion into OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT. Both <strong>Amazon</strong> and <strong>Alphabet</strong> invested hefty sums into a competing platform, called Anthropic. <strong>Tesla</strong> was touting its advancements in self-driving cars and humanoid robots. You get the drift -- the AI narrative largely hinged on the moves big tech was making.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当人工智能在 2022 年底和 2023 年初首次开始作为下一个重大趋势出现时，投资者不断被关于大型科技公司在这一领域的引人注目的投资的新闻轰炸。<strong>微软</strong> 向 OpenAI（ChatGPT 的制造商）投入了 100 亿美元。<strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 也向一个名为 Anthropic 的竞争平台投资了巨额资金。<strong>特斯拉</strong> 则在宣传其在自动驾驶汽车和类人机器人方面的进展。你可以理解，这一人工智能叙事在很大程度上依赖于大型科技公司的举动。</p>
</div><p>But in the background, Palantir was building. In April 2023, the company launched its fourth major software suite -- the Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在此背景下，Palantir 正在不断发展。2023 年 4 月，该公司推出了其第四个主要软件套件——Palantir 人工智能平台（AIP）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e8bc1eca73150df0b316c23ffcef0179.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e8bc1eca73150df0b316c23ffcef0179.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR 收入（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>As the graph above illustrates, Palantir was a relatively slow-growth, cash-burning enterprise prior to the release of AIP. But since AIP's launch a little more than two years ago, Palantir's revenue has accelerated considerably. On top of that, the company has been able to command improving unit economics underscored by a sweeping transition to positive net income and generating billions in free cash flow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上图所示，在 AIP 发布之前，Palantir 是一家相对缓慢增长、现金消耗的企业。但自 AIP 推出以来，Palantir 的收入显著加速。此外，该公司能够实现改善的单位经济，标志着其全面转向正净收入，并产生数十亿美元的自由现金流。</p>
</div><p>At the end of 2022, Palantir had 367 total customers. As of the end of the first quarter this year, Palantir boasted 769 total customers. Perhaps even more impressive is that the company's commercial customers (non-government) have risen by more than twofold over the last couple of years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2022 年底，Palantir 拥有 367 个客户。截至今年第一季度末，Palantir 的客户总数达到了 769 个。更令人印象深刻的是，该公司的商业客户（非政府）在过去几年中增长了两倍以上。</p>
</div><p>To me, AIP is serving as a gateway for Palantir to expand its reach beyond federal contracts with the U.S. military, which is what Palantir is best known for. AIP represents a transformational shift as a defense contractor to a more ubiquitous software platform capable of penetrating the private sector, despite relentless competition from larger companies such as <strong>Salesforce</strong> or <strong>SAP</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，AIP 为 Palantir 提供了一个扩展其在美国军方联邦合同之外的业务的机会，而这正是 Palantir 最为人知的。AIP 代表了从国防承包商向更普遍的软件平台的转变，能够渗透到私营部门，尽管面临来自 <strong>Salesforce</strong> 或 <strong>SAP</strong> 等大型公司的激烈竞争。</p>
</div><p>As a Palantir bull myself, I've been blown away by management's ability to outmaneuver big tech and deliver on lofty growth targets time and again. But as an investor, I can't help but wonder if the company's share price trajectory is sustainable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为一名 Palantir 的支持者，我对管理层能够灵活应对大型科技公司并一次又一次地实现高增长目标感到震惊。但作为投资者，我不禁想知道公司的股价走势是否可持续。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYwNzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTgyMTg2ODQ5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F826079%2Fgettyimages-182186849.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is Wall Street trying to tell investors something?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>华尔街是否在向投资者传达某种信息？</h2>
</div><p>In addition to analyzing financial trends and operating metrics, investors can augment their due diligence process by listening to how Wall Street analysts talk about a company or even dig into the trading activity of notable investors. Thanks to a nifty tool called a form 13F, investors can access an itemized breakdown of all of the buys and sells from hedge funds during a given quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了分析财务趋势和运营指标外，投资者还可以通过倾听华尔街分析师对公司的看法，或深入研究知名投资者的交易活动来增强尽职调查过程。得益于一种名为 13F 表格的巧妙工具，投资者可以访问对对冲基金在特定季度内所有买卖的逐项细分。</p>
</div><p>During the first quarter, famed billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller sold out of his fund's Palantir position. In addition, Cathie Wood has been trimming exposure to Palantir in Ark's portfolio as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第一季度，著名亿万富翁投资者 Stanley Druckenmiller 出售了其基金的 Palantir 持仓。此外，Cathie Wood 也在减少 Ark 投资组合中对 Palantir 的敞口。</p>
</div><p>On the flip side, billionaire investors Ken Griffin and Israel Englander both added to their funds' respective Palantir positions during the first quarter. Given these dynamics, it might be hard to discern how Wall Street really feels about Palantir.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，亿万富翁投资者 Ken Griffin 和 Israel Englander 在第一季度都增加了各自基金的 Palantir 持仓。鉴于这些动态，可能很难判断华尔街对 Palantir 的真实看法。</p>
</div><p>I think there are some nuances to point out given the details above. First, both Druckenmiller and Wood have been in and out of Palantir stock in the past -- this is not the first time each investor reduced their exposure to the data analytics darling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为，鉴于上述细节，有一些细微之处需要指出。首先，Druckenmiller 和 Wood 过去都曾进出 Palantir 股票——这并不是他们第一次减少对这一数据分析明星的敞口。</p>
</div><p>On top of that, I think Griffin's and Englander's activity should be taken with a grain of salt. Both investors run highly sophisticated, multistrategy hedge funds. From time to time, some of this activity may include being a market maker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，我认为 Griffin 和 Englander 的活动应该谨慎看待。这两位投资者管理着高度复杂的多策略对冲基金。偶尔，这些活动可能包括作为市场做市商。</p>
</div><p>Although it may appear bullish that Palantir stock is held in Griffin's Citadel and Englander's Millennium Management portfolios, I wouldn't quite buy that narrative. Neither fund is necessarily known for holding positions for the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Palantir 股票在 Griffin 的 Citadel 和 Englander 的 Millennium Management 投资组合中持有似乎是看涨的，但我并不完全认同这种说法。这两只基金并不以长期持有头寸而闻名。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, as a multistrategy fund with a number of different teams and objectives, I think that it's highly likely that Citadel and Millennium have a layered and complex hedge strategy when it comes to owning a volatile growth stock such as Palantir.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，作为一家拥有多个不同团队和目标的多策略基金，我认为 Citadel 和 Millennium 在持有像 Palantir 这样波动性较大的成长股时，很可能有一个分层和复杂的对冲策略。</p>
</div><h2>Where will Palantir stock be at the end of 2025?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>到 2025 年底，Palantir 的股票会在哪里？</h2>
</div><p>The chart below illustrates institutional buying and selling of Palantir stock over the last few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下图展示了过去几年 Palantir 股票的机构买卖情况。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/af6df73cfdfd8e68acbbf8dac2a99286.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/af6df73cfdfd8e68acbbf8dac2a99286.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR Shares Bought By Institutional Investors data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR 被机构投资者购买的股票数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Given that buying (the purple line) remains elevated over selling (the orange line), this could suggest that Palantir remains a favorite among institutional portfolios. However, as I expressed above, not all hedge funds and money managers have the same strategy. In other words, some of this elevated buying could be part of a broader, more complex trading strategy and less so an endorsement of long-term accumulation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于购买（紫线）仍高于销售（橙线），这可能表明 Palantir 仍然是机构投资组合中的热门选择。然而，正如我之前所表达的，并非所有对冲基金和资金经理都有相同的策略。换句话说，这些高水平的购买可能是更广泛、更复杂的交易策略的一部分，而不一定是对长期积累的认可。</p>
</div><p>Over the last few months, Palantir stock has become increasingly more expensive. In fact, the company is trading well beyond levels seen during peak days of the dot-com or COVID-19 bubbles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几个月中，Palantir 的股票变得越来越昂贵。事实上，该公司的交易价格远高于互联网泡沫或 COVID-19 泡沫期间的水平。</p>
</div><p>While it's impossible to know for certain where Palantir stock will be trading by the end of the year, smart investors know that nothing goes up in a straight line forever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然无法确切知道到年底时 Palantir 股票的交易情况，但聪明的投资者知道，任何东西都不可能永远直线上涨。</p>
</div><p>A good indicator for how investors feel about Palantir's prospects should come after the company reports second-quarter earnings in a couple of weeks. As a reminder, shares fell off a cliff for a brief moment following the company's first-quarter blowout report. Expectations are rising with each passing report, and I would not be surprised to see Palantir stock sell off again -- even if its Q2 results are stellar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对 Palantir 前景的感受的一个良好指标应该是在公司几周后公布第二季度财报时出现。提醒一下，在公司第一季度的出色财报公布后，股价曾短暂暴跌。随着每次财报的发布，市场预期在上升，我不会感到惊讶，如果 Palantir 股票再次下跌——即使它的第二季度业绩非常出色。</p>
</div><p>Given the convergence between institutional buying and selling, combined with Palantir's increasingly expensive valuation, I can't help but be cautious at this point. I do think a valuation correction could be in store sooner or later and would not be surprised if shares are trading for a considerably lower price by the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到机构买卖之间的趋同，加上 Palantir 日益昂贵的估值，我在此时不禁感到谨慎。我确实认为，估值修正可能会在早晚发生，如果到年底时股价大幅下跌，我也不会感到惊讶。</p>
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After Soaring Nearly 100% So Far This Year, Where Will Palantir Stock Be at the End of 2025?

- Palantir Technologies 股价在过去三年上涨超过 1,300%，今年上涨 97%。  
- 公司客户数量从 367 增加到 769，显示出 AIP 的成功。  
- 投资者需关注机构买卖动态，警惕股价可能的回调。  

截至今年为止，Palantir Tech 的股票已经上涨了近 100%，那么到 2025 年底它会达到什么水平呢？