<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.49%) 长期以来一直是一只更依赖创始人埃隆·马斯克愿景的股票，而非其实际基本面。然而，随着特斯拉在第二季度财报表现平平后股价下跌——尽管围绕机器人出租车和机器人的承诺依然很多——现实可能终于开始追赶它。</p>
<p>在过去六个月左右，马斯克对特斯拉造成了很大的品牌损害。他资助了唐纳德·特朗普总统的竞选，并监督了政府效率部（DOGE），这让许多倾向自由派的消费者感到愤怒。随后，他与自己帮助选上的总统发生了非常公开的争执，使自己和特斯拉与许多保守派人士疏远。</p>
<p>这种后果在特斯拉的第二季度数据中可见一斑，同时关税也对公司造成了伤害。与此同时，由于美国电动车（EV）税收抵免将在 2025 年第三季度末到期，公司将面临更大的逆风。</p>
<h2><strong>其核心汽车业务正在挣扎</strong></h2>
<p>特斯拉的核心汽车业务连续第二个季度出现大幅下滑。在第一季度交付量下降 13% 后，第二季度交付量也下降了同样的幅度。Model 3 和 Model Y 的交付量下降了 12%，而其他车型则暴跌 52%。</p>
<p>特斯拉的汽车收入在本季度暴跌 16%，降至 167 亿美元。在其汽车收入中，纯毛利的监管信用下降了超过一半，降至 4.29 亿美元。不出所料，这影响了特斯拉本季度的盈利能力。</p>
<p>对公司来说更糟糕的是，这些监管信用很快就会消失。特朗普的&#34;美丽大法案&#34;将在九月底取消当前的 7500 美元联邦电动车税收抵免。因此，马斯克承认公司可能会面临&#34;几个艰难的季度&#34;。</p>
<p>总体而言，特斯拉的收入下降了 12%，降至 225 亿美元。其能源生产和存储收入下降了 7%，降至 28 亿美元，而服务收入则增长了 17%，接近 31 亿美元。调整后的每股收益下降了 23%，降至 0.40 美元，而调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）下降了 7%，降至 34 亿美元。</p>
<p>特斯拉的现金流也开始受到影响。其经营现金流下降了 30%，降至 25 亿美元，而自由现金流则暴跌 89%，降至 1.46 亿美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjY2NzAvcGFya2VkLWNhcnMtaW4tcGFya2luZy1sb3QuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="431" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjY2NzAvcGFya2VkLWNhcnMtaW4tcGFya2luZy1sb3QuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>更多大承诺</h2>
<p>鉴于特斯拉的经营业绩不佳，马斯克和管理层将谈话引向特斯拉在自动驾驶和机器人领域的重大投资，这并不令人惊讶。马斯克声称，特斯拉将在今年年底之前将其自动驾驶叫车服务扩展到美国一半的人口，前提是获得监管批准。</p>
<p>当然，这样的说法几乎没有意义。该公司目前仅在德克萨斯州奥斯汀的一个小范围内进行测试，并配备安全驾驶员，而在这个小型试点中已经出现了多起安全问题。其技术显然还远未准备好在全国城市推广。</p>
<p>但假设，出于论证的目的，技术和监管批准都顺利通过。公司将需要数十万辆四级自动驾驶汽车上路（而不是目前的二级车辆）。除此之外，还需要服务和清洁中心，以及充电基础设施，以应对如此规模的车队。还需要一个面向消费者的平台，能够处理诸如行程前定价、动态票价计算、争议和退款等事务。目前没有证据表明特斯拉已经具备这些条件。</p>
<p>与此同时，马斯克继续赞美他的 Optimus 机器人，称其将是特斯拉有史以来最大的产品。他表示，Optimus 3 具有&#34;精致&#34;的设计，没有明显缺陷。他希望在今年年底之前拥有新机器人的原型，并在明年开始量产。他还希望在五年内每年生产 100 万个 Optimus 机器人。</p>
<p>再一次，这似乎是雄心勃勃的。<strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -0.33%) 目前是人工智能机器人领域的领导者，而波士顿动力等公司展示了具有先进移动能力的机器人，因此机器人可以非常有用。然而，特斯拉迄今为止展示的只是一个只能执行精心编排任务的人形机器人。如今，大多数工厂自动化是由专用的固定用途机器人完成的。人形机器人的使用案例仍然非常可疑。</p>
<h2><strong>投资者应该买入抄底吗？</strong></h2>
<p>即使在股价回调后，特斯拉的股票基于 2025 年分析师的预估，前瞻市盈率（P/E）仍超过 170 倍，而其盈利的汽车同行——如 <strong>福特</strong>、<strong>通用汽车</strong> 和 <strong>斯特兰蒂斯</strong>——通常市盈率在 10 倍或更低。</p>
<p>由于其核心汽车业务正在挣扎，这表明特斯拉大部分市值是基于可能实现或可能无法实现的雄心。考虑到公司过度承诺和未能兑现的历史，这不是我愿意下注的赌注。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉的股价在令人失望的第二季度财报发布后大幅下跌，收入下降了 12%，运营现金流下降了 30%。公司的核心汽车业务面临困境，汽车收入减少了 16%，部分车型的交付量暴跌 52%。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的争议行为以及关于自动驾驶和机器人技术的雄心勃勃的承诺引发了人们的担忧。分析师质疑投资者是否应该趁机买入，因为特斯拉的股票基于 2025 年的预估，前瞻市盈率仍高达 170 倍以上</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 3.49%) has long been a stock that's traded more on the vision of its founder Elon Musk than on its actual fundamentals. However, with the stock sinking following Tesla's lackluster second-quarter earnings report -- despite more big promises around robotaxis and robots -- reality might finally be catching up to it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.49%) 长期以来一直是一只更依赖创始人埃隆·马斯克愿景的股票，而非其实际基本面。然而，随着特斯拉在第二季度财报表现平平后股价下跌——尽管围绕机器人出租车和机器人的承诺依然很多——现实可能终于开始追赶它。</p>
</div><p>Musk has done a lot of brand damage to Tesla over the past six months or so. His funding of President Donald Trump's campaign and overseeing the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) angered many liberal-leaning consumers. He then later got in a very public feud with the President he helped get elected, alienating himself and Tesla from many conservatives, as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去六个月左右，马斯克对特斯拉造成了很大的品牌损害。他资助了唐纳德·特朗普总统的竞选，并监督了政府效率部（DOGE），这让许多倾向自由派的消费者感到愤怒。随后，他与自己帮助选上的总统发生了非常公开的争执，使自己和特斯拉与许多保守派人士疏远。</p>
</div><p>The fallout could be seen in Tesla's Q2 numbers, while tariffs also stung the company. Meanwhile, it will soon see an even potentially bigger headwind due to the expiration of the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) credit by the end of third-quarter 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种后果在特斯拉的第二季度数据中可见一斑，同时关税也对公司造成了伤害。与此同时，由于美国电动车（EV）税收抵免将在 2025 年第三季度末到期，公司将面临更大的逆风。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Its core auto business is struggling</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>其核心汽车业务正在挣扎</strong></h2>
</div><p>For the second straight quarter, Tesla saw big declines in its core auto business. After a 13% drop in deliveries in the first quarter, deliveries fell by the same amount in Q2. Model 3 and Model Y deliveries decreased by 12%, while other models plunged by 52%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的核心汽车业务连续第二个季度出现大幅下滑。在第一季度交付量下降 13% 后，第二季度交付量也下降了同样的幅度。Model 3 和 Model Y 的交付量下降了 12%，而其他车型则暴跌 52%。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's auto revenue plunged 16% to $16.7 billion in the quarter. Within its auto revenue, its regulatory credits, which are pure gross margin, fell by more than half to $429 million. Not surprisingly, this affected Tesla's profitability in the quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的汽车收入在本季度暴跌 16%，降至 167 亿美元。在其汽车收入中，纯毛利的监管信用下降了超过一半，降至 4.29 亿美元。不出所料，这影响了特斯拉本季度的盈利能力。</p>
</div><p>Even worse for the company is that many of these regulatory credits will soon be going away. Trump's &#34;Big Beautiful Bill&#34; will eliminate the current federal $7,500 EV tax credit at the end of September. As a result, Musk admitted that the company could be in for a &#34;few rough quarters&#34; ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对公司来说更糟糕的是，这些监管信用很快就会消失。特朗普的&#34;美丽大法案&#34;将在九月底取消当前的 7500 美元联邦电动车税收抵免。因此，马斯克承认公司可能会面临&#34;几个艰难的季度&#34;。</p>
</div><p>Overall, Tesla's revenue fell 12% to $22.5 billion. Its energy generation and storage revenue dropped 7% to $2.8 billion, while its service revenue climbed 17% to nearly $3.1 billion. Adjusted earnings per share sank 23% to $0.40, while its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) declined by 7% to $3.4 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，特斯拉的收入下降了 12%，降至 225 亿美元。其能源生产和存储收入下降了 7%，降至 28 亿美元，而服务收入则增长了 17%，接近 31 亿美元。调整后的每股收益下降了 23%，降至 0.40 美元，而调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）下降了 7%，降至 34 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's cash flow is also starting to take a hit. Its operating cash flow sank 30% to $2.5 billion, while its free cash flow cratered by 89% to $146 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的现金流也开始受到影响。其经营现金流下降了 30%，降至 25 亿美元，而自由现金流则暴跌 89%，降至 1.46 亿美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjY2NzAvcGFya2VkLWNhcnMtaW4tcGFya2luZy1sb3QuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F826670%2Fparked-cars-in-parking-lot.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>More big promises</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更多大承诺</h2>
</div><p>Given Tesla's poor operating results, it was not surprising that Musk and the rest of management directed the conversation toward Tesla's big bets on autonomous driving and robotics. Musk claimed that Tesla will expand its autonomous ride-hailing service to cover half of the U.S. population by the end of this year, pending regulatory approval.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于特斯拉的经营业绩不佳，马斯克和管理层将谈话引向特斯拉在自动驾驶和机器人领域的重大投资，这并不令人惊讶。马斯克声称，特斯拉将在今年年底之前将其自动驾驶叫车服务扩展到美国一半的人口，前提是获得监管批准。</p>
</div><p>Now, of course, such a statement makes little sense. The company is currently only testing a small geofenced area in Austin, Texas, with safety drivers, and it has already had a number of safety issues in this small pilot. Its technology appears nowhere close to ready to be adopted in cities countrywide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，这样的说法几乎没有意义。该公司目前仅在德克萨斯州奥斯汀的一个小范围内进行测试，并配备安全驾驶员，而在这个小型试点中已经出现了多起安全问题。其技术显然还远未准备好在全国城市推广。</p>
</div><p>But let's say, for argument's sake, that the technology and regulatory approvals work out. The company would then need hundreds of thousands of Level 4 autonomous driving vehicles on the road (not its current Level 2 vehicles). Beyond that, it would also need service and cleaning centers, as well as charging infrastructure in place to handle a fleet of that size. It would also need to have a consumer-facing platform that can handle things like pre-trip pricing, dynamic fare calculations, disputes, and refunds. There is no evidence that Tesla has any of this in place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但假设，出于论证的目的，技术和监管批准都顺利通过。公司将需要数十万辆四级自动驾驶汽车上路（而不是目前的二级车辆）。除此之外，还需要服务和清洁中心，以及充电基础设施，以应对如此规模的车队。还需要一个面向消费者的平台，能够处理诸如行程前定价、动态票价计算、争议和退款等事务。目前没有证据表明特斯拉已经具备这些条件。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Musk continued to sing the praises of his Optimus robot, saying it will be Tesla's biggest product ever. He said Optimus 3 has an &#34;exquisite&#34; design with no significant flaws. He's looking to have a prototype of the new robot by the end of this year and then scale production next year. He then wants to be able to produce 1 million Optimus robots a year within five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，马斯克继续赞美他的 Optimus 机器人，称其将是特斯拉有史以来最大的产品。他表示，Optimus 3 具有&#34;精致&#34;的设计，没有明显缺陷。他希望在今年年底之前拥有新机器人的原型，并在明年开始量产。他还希望在五年内每年生产 100 万个 Optimus 机器人。</p>
</div><p>Once again, this seems ambitious. <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.33%) is currently an AI robotics leader, and companies like Boston Dynamics have showcased robots with advanced mobility, so robots can be hugely useful. However, all Tesla has ever demonstrated is a humanoid robot that could only do carefully choreographed tasks. Today, most factory automation is done by specialized, fixed-purpose robots. The use case for a humanoid robot is still very questionable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再一次，这似乎是雄心勃勃的。<strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -0.33%) 目前是人工智能机器人领域的领导者，而波士顿动力等公司展示了具有先进移动能力的机器人，因此机器人可以非常有用。然而，特斯拉迄今为止展示的只是一个只能执行精心编排任务的人形机器人。如今，大多数工厂自动化是由专用的固定用途机器人完成的。人形机器人的使用案例仍然非常可疑。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Should investors buy the dip?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>投资者应该买入抄底吗？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Even after the stock pullback, Tesla's stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of over 170x based on 2025 analyst estimates, while its profitable auto peers -- like <strong>Ford</strong>, <strong>General Motors</strong>, and <strong>Stellantis</strong> -- generally have multiples of 10 or less.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在股价回调后，特斯拉的股票基于 2025 年分析师的预估，前瞻市盈率（P/E）仍超过 170 倍，而其盈利的汽车同行——如 <strong>福特</strong>、<strong>通用汽车</strong> 和 <strong>斯特兰蒂斯</strong>——通常市盈率在 10 倍或更低。</p>
</div><p>With its core auto business struggling, this indicates that the bulk of Tesla's market cap is predicated on ambitions that may or may not pan out. Given the company's track record of overpromising and under-delivering, this is not a bet I'd make.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于其核心汽车业务正在挣扎，这表明特斯拉大部分市值是基于可能实现或可能无法实现的雄心。考虑到公司过度承诺和未能兑现的历史，这不是我愿意下注的赌注。</p>
</div>

Tesla Shares Tumble. Is It Time to Buy the Dip or Run for the Hills?

- 特斯拉第二季度业绩不佳，核心汽车业务连续两季下滑。  
- 收入下降 12% 至 225 亿美元，汽车收入暴跌 16%。  
- 马斯克承认未来可能面临 “几艰难季度”。

特斯拉股价下跌。现在是逢低买入的时机，还是应该避开风险？