<p>华盛顿（美联社）——随着特朗普总统准备宣布新的关税增加，他的政策成本开始显现，这对依赖全球供应链的国内制造业造成影响，一项新的分析表明，工厂成本可能增加约 2% 到 4.5%。</p>
<p>“许多公司将面临现金紧缩，” 进行该分析的华盛顿公平增长中心研究员克里斯·班格特 - 德朗斯表示。班格特 - 德朗斯说，这些看似微小的变化在利润微薄的工厂中，“如果成本不可承受，可能导致工资停滞，甚至裁员和工厂关闭。”</p>
<p>周二发布的分析指出，特朗普在试图向公众推销他的关税时可能面临的挑战，如何将其视为更广泛的政治和经济胜利，而不仅仅是证明他的谈判风格使其他国家退缩。经济学家表示，特朗普政策的成功最终取决于普通美国人是否变得更富有，以及工厂城镇是否能复兴，而这一目标在经济学家看来，特朗普的共和党政府不太可能通过关税实现。</p>
<p>特朗普已与欧盟、日本、菲律宾、印度尼西亚和英国宣布了新的框架，这些框架将提高美国征收的进口税。他准备从周五开始对来自其他几十个国家的商品征收 15% 到 50% 的关税。</p>
<p>美国股市对关税税率没有特朗普在四月份最初威胁的那么高表示松了一口气，并对未来的稳定感到希望。特朗普坚持认为，关税收入将减少预算赤字，并帮助刺激国内制造业就业，同时淡化价格上涨的风险。</p>
<p>“我们已经消除了通货膨胀，” 特朗普上周五在登上海军一号前说道，正前往苏格兰。</p>
<p>但一旦关税在全球经济中更全面地流动，可能会出现价格上涨和增长放缓的反弹。</p>
<p>亚特兰大联邦储备银行在六月的一项调查显示，公司平均会将一半的关税成本通过提高价格转嫁给美国消费者。劳工部数据显示，在特朗普推出四月份的关税后，美国失去了 14,000 个制造业岗位，这给即将于周五发布的六月就业报告的反弹带来了很大压力。</p>
<p>随着新关税的实施，工厂面临新的成本。</p>
<p>华盛顿公平增长中心的分析显示，特朗普对关税的执着给他的议程带来了潜在的经济和政治成本。在密歇根州和威斯康星州这些摇摆州，超过五分之一的工作岗位集中在制造业、建筑业、采矿和石油钻探及维护等关键行业，这些行业对他的进口税暴露较高。</p>
<p>特朗普上周吹捧的人工智能行业作为经济的未来，依赖于进口。超过 20% 的计算机和电子制造的原材料是进口的，因此关税最终可能会放大在美国建设该技术的巨额数万亿美元的成本。</p>
<p>白宫辩称，美国企业将因贸易框架而获得新市场，称公司最终将因此受益。</p>
<p>“在特朗普总统的领导下，“美国制造” 标签将重新恢复其全球主导地位，” 白宫发言人库什·德赛表示。</p>
<p>仍然存在许多不确定性，但世界经济面临新的代价。</p>
<p>该分析存在局限性。特朗普的关税税率一直在变化，分析仅关注额外成本，而没有考虑这些成本将如何在外国生产商、国内制造商和消费者之间分摊。此外，作为 “紧急” 行为的关税的法律依据将在周四提交给美国上诉法院。</p>
<p>财政部长斯科特·贝森特在上周接受福克斯商业网络 “库德洛” 节目采访时表示，各国基本上接受关税以维持对美国市场的准入。“每个人都愿意支付过路费，” 他说。</p>
<p>但贝森特没有提到的是，美国制造商也在支付这笔过路费。</p>
<p>“我们正受到各方的挤压，” 位于密歇根州贝尔丁的乔丹制造公司的总裁贾斯廷·约翰逊表示。他的祖父于 1949 年创立了该公司。</p>
<p>该公司生产亚马逊仓库、汽车公司和航空航天公司使用的零部件，今年关键原材料——钢卷的价格上涨了 5% 到 10%。</p>
<p>特朗普对进口钢铁和铝征收了 50% 的关税。乔丹制造公司不购买外国钢铁。但通过削弱外国竞争，特朗普的关税使美国国内钢铁制造商得以提高价格。</p>
<p>约翰逊并不责怪他们。“在这种情况下，没有哪个血气方刚的资本家会不提高价格，” 他说。</p>
<p>特朗普称关税不会导致通货膨胀，但企业看到价格上涨。</p>
<p>特朗普白宫坚称经济中没有出现通货膨胀，本月通过经济顾问委员会发布的一份报告称，去年 12 月至今年 5 月，进口商品的价格下降。“这些发现与关税或关税恐惧会导致通货膨胀加速的说法相矛盾，” 报告总结道。</p>
<p>耶鲁大学预算实验室的经济学主任厄尼·特德斯基表示，更准确的衡量标准是将进口价格的趋势与过去进行比较，而经济顾问委员会自己的数据表明 “最近几个月进口价格加速上涨。”</p>
<p>耶鲁大学预算实验室的最新估计是，关税将导致普通家庭比原本少 2400 美元。</p>
<p>让经济处于刀尖之上。</p>
<p>蒙大拿刀具公司的创始人兼总裁乔什·史密斯称自己是特朗普的支持者，但表示他认为对外国钢铁和其他商品的关税威胁到了他的业务。</p>
<p>例如，史密斯刚刚从德国订购了一台价值 515,000 美元的机器，用于将他的刀片磨锐。特朗普对来自欧盟的产品征收 10% 的税，这一税率将在他周日宣布的贸易框架下提高到 15%。因此，史密斯需要为这台机器支付 77,250 美元的税——这大约足够他雇佣一名初级员工。</p>
<p>史密斯很乐意从美国供应商那里购买斜面磨削机。但没有这样的供应商。“世界上只有两家公司生产这种机器，它们都在德国，” 史密斯说。</p>
<p>然后是进口钢材，特朗普对其征收 50% 的税。今年之前，蒙大拿刀具公司从纽约锡拉丘兹的克鲁西布工业公司购买所需的粉末钢。但克鲁西布去年 12 月宣布破产，其资产被瑞典公司 Erasteel 收购，并将生产转移到瑞典。</p>
<p>史密斯通过提前购买一年的钢材来规避关税。但从 2026 年开始，他将从瑞典进口的特种钢材将面临 50% 的关税。</p>
<p>“普通美国人并没有像我这样，面对我所面对的数字，每天做出决定，比如，‘嘿，我们不能再雇几个人，因为我们可能需要为这钢材或这磨床支付关税，’” 他说。“我想购买更多设备，雇佣更多人。这就是我想做的。”</p>
<h2>你现在应该投资 1,000 美元在亚马逊吗？</h2>
<p>在考虑亚马逊之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
<p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已识别出五只顶级分析师正在悄悄向客户推荐的股票，建议在更广泛的市场注意到之前购买……而亚马逊并不在名单上。</p>
<p>虽然亚马逊目前在分析师中获得了买入评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
<p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>

<p>一项新的分析表明，特朗普总统的关税可能会使工厂成本上升 2% 至 4.5%，这可能导致制造商面临现金压力。这可能导致工资停滞、裁员和工厂关闭。该分析突显了特朗普在推动关税作为经济有利因素方面所面临的挑战，尤其是在密歇根州和威斯康星州等制造业重州。尽管白宫声称关税将有助于美国企业，但人们对价格上涨和增长放缓的担忧依然存在，因为成本将转嫁给消费者。关税的法律依据也受到审查</p>

<p>WASHINGTON (AP) — As President Donald Trump prepares to announce new tariff increases, the costs of his policies are starting to come into focus for a domestic manufacturing sector that depends on global supply chains, with a new analysis suggesting factory costs could increase by roughly 2% to 4.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华盛顿（美联社）——随着特朗普总统准备宣布新的关税增加，他的政策成本开始显现，这对依赖全球供应链的国内制造业造成影响，一项新的分析表明，工厂成本可能增加约 2% 到 4.5%。</p>
</div><p>“There’s going to be a cash squeeze for a lot of these firms,” said Chris Bangert-Drowns, the researcher at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth who conducted the analysis. Those seemingly small changes at factories with slim profit margins, Bangert-Drowns said, “could lead to stagnation of wages, if not layoffs and closures of plants&#34; if the costs are untenable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“许多公司将面临现金紧缩，” 进行该分析的华盛顿公平增长中心研究员克里斯·班格特 - 德朗斯表示。班格特 - 德朗斯说，这些看似微小的变化在利润微薄的工厂中，“如果成本不可承受，可能导致工资停滞，甚至裁员和工厂关闭。”</p>
</div><p>The analysis, released Tuesday, points to the challenges Trump might face in trying to sell his tariffs to the public as a broader political and economic win and not just as evidence his negotiating style gets other nations to back down. The success of Trump's policies ultimately depends on whether everyday Americans become wealthier and factory towns experience revivals, a goal outside economists say his Republican administration is unlikely to meet with tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二发布的分析指出，特朗普在试图向公众推销他的关税时可能面临的挑战，如何将其视为更广泛的政治和经济胜利，而不仅仅是证明他的谈判风格使其他国家退缩。经济学家表示，特朗普政策的成功最终取决于普通美国人是否变得更富有，以及工厂城镇是否能复兴，而这一目标在经济学家看来，特朗普的共和党政府不太可能通过关税实现。</p>
</div><p>Trump has announced new frameworks with the European Union, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia and Britain that would each raise the import taxes charged by the United States. He’s prepared to levy tariffs against goods from dozens of other countries starting on Friday in the stated range of 15% to 50%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普已与欧盟、日本、菲律宾、印度尼西亚和英国宣布了新的框架，这些框架将提高美国征收的进口税。他准备从周五开始对来自其他几十个国家的商品征收 15% 到 50% 的关税。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. stock market has shown relief the tariff rates aren’t as high as Trump initially threatened in April and hope for a sense of stability going forward. Trump maintains the tariff revenues will whittle down the budget deficit and help whip up domestic factory jobs, all while playing down the risks of higher prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国股市对关税税率没有特朗普在四月份最初威胁的那么高表示松了一口气，并对未来的稳定感到希望。特朗普坚持认为，关税收入将减少预算赤字，并帮助刺激国内制造业就业，同时淡化价格上涨的风险。</p>
</div><p>“We’ve wiped out inflation,&#34; Trump said last Friday before boarding Marine One while on his way to Scotland.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们已经消除了通货膨胀，” 特朗普上周五在登上海军一号前说道，正前往苏格兰。</p>
</div><p>But there's the possibility of backlash in the form of higher prices and slower growth once tariffs flow more fully through the world economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但一旦关税在全球经济中更全面地流动，可能会出现价格上涨和增长放缓的反弹。</p>
</div><p>A June survey by the Atlanta Federal Reserve suggested companies would on average pass half of their tariff costs onto U.S. consumers through higher prices. Labor Department data shows America lost 14,000 manufacturing jobs after Trump rolled out his April tariffs, putting a lot of pressure as to whether a rebound starts in the June employment report coming out Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚特兰大联邦储备银行在六月的一项调查显示，公司平均会将一半的关税成本通过提高价格转嫁给美国消费者。劳工部数据显示，在特朗普推出四月份的关税后，美国失去了 14,000 个制造业岗位，这给即将于周五发布的六月就业报告的反弹带来了很大压力。</p>
</div><p>With new tariffs in place, there are new costs for factories</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着新关税的实施，工厂面临新的成本。</p>
</div><p>The Washington Center for Equitable Growth analysis shows how Trump’s devotion to tariffs carries potential economic and political costs for his agenda. In the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin, more than 1 in 5 jobs are in the critical sectors of manufacturing, construction, mining and oil drilling and maintenance that have high exposures to his import taxes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华盛顿公平增长中心的分析显示，特朗普对关税的执着给他的议程带来了潜在的经济和政治成本。在密歇根州和威斯康星州这些摇摆州，超过五分之一的工作岗位集中在制造业、建筑业、采矿和石油钻探及维护等关键行业，这些行业对他的进口税暴露较高。</p>
</div><p>The artificial intelligence sector Trump last week touted as the future of the economy is dependent on imports. More than 20% of the inputs for computer and electronics manufacturing are imported, so the tariffs could ultimately magnify a hefty multitrillion-dollar price tag for building out the technology in the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普上周吹捧的人工智能行业作为经济的未来，依赖于进口。超过 20% 的计算机和电子制造的原材料是进口的，因此关税最终可能会放大在美国建设该技术的巨额数万亿美元的成本。</p>
</div><p>The White House argues American businesses will access new markets because of the trade frameworks, saying companies will ultimately benefit as a result.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白宫辩称，美国企业将因贸易框架而获得新市场，称公司最终将因此受益。</p>
</div><p>“The ‘Made in USA’ label is set to resume its global dominance under President Trump,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在特朗普总统的领导下，“美国制造” 标签将重新恢复其全球主导地位，” 白宫发言人库什·德赛表示。</p>
</div><p>Still lots of uncertainty, but world economy faces a new toll</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仍然存在许多不确定性，但世界经济面临新的代价。</p>
</div><p>There are limits to the analysis. Trump’s tariff rates have been a moving target, and the analysis looks only at additional costs, not how those costs will be absorbed among foreign producers, domestic manufacturers and consumers. Also, the legal basis of the tariffs as an “emergency” act goes before a U.S. appeals court on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该分析存在局限性。特朗普的关税税率一直在变化，分析仅关注额外成本，而没有考虑这些成本将如何在外国生产商、国内制造商和消费者之间分摊。此外，作为 “紧急” 行为的关税的法律依据将在周四提交给美国上诉法院。</p>
</div><p>Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview last week on Fox Business Network’s “Kudlow&#34; show countries were essentially accepting the tariffs to maintain access to the U.S. market. “Everyone is willing to pay a toll,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>财政部长斯科特·贝森特在上周接受福克斯商业网络 “库德洛” 节目采访时表示，各国基本上接受关税以维持对美国市场的准入。“每个人都愿意支付过路费，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>But what Bessent didn't say is U.S. manufacturers are also paying much of that toll.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但贝森特没有提到的是，美国制造商也在支付这笔过路费。</p>
</div><p>“We’re getting squeezed from all sides,’’ said Justin Johnson, president of Jordan Manufacturing Co. in Belding, Michigan, northeast of Grand Rapids. His grandfather founded the company in 1949.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们正受到各方的挤压，” 位于密歇根州贝尔丁的乔丹制造公司的总裁贾斯廷·约翰逊表示。他的祖父于 1949 年创立了该公司。</p>
</div><p>The company, which makes parts used by Amazon warehouses, auto companies and aerospace firms, has seen the price of a key raw material — steel coil — rise 5% to 10% this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司生产亚马逊仓库、汽车公司和航空航天公司使用的零部件，今年关键原材料——钢卷的价格上涨了 5% 到 10%。</p>
</div><p>Trump has imposed 50% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. Jordan Manufacturing doesn’t buy foreign steel. But by crippling foreign competition, Trump’s tariffs have allowed domestic U.S. steelmakers to hike prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普对进口钢铁和铝征收了 50% 的关税。乔丹制造公司不购买外国钢铁。但通过削弱外国竞争，特朗普的关税使美国国内钢铁制造商得以提高价格。</p>
</div><p>Johnson doesn't blame them. “There’s no red-blooded capitalist who isn’t going to raise his prices’’ under those circumstances, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>约翰逊并不责怪他们。“在这种情况下，没有哪个血气方刚的资本家会不提高价格，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>Trump says no inflation from tariffs, but businesses see higher prices</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普称关税不会导致通货膨胀，但企业看到价格上涨。</p>
</div><p>The Trump White House insists inflation is not surfacing in the economy, issuing a report through the Council of Economic Advisers this month saying the price of imported goods fell between December of last year and this past May. “These findings contradict claims that tariffs or tariff-fears would lead to an acceleration of inflation,” the report concludes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普白宫坚称经济中没有出现通货膨胀，本月通过经济顾问委员会发布的一份报告称，去年 12 月至今年 5 月，进口商品的价格下降。“这些发现与关税或关税恐惧会导致通货膨胀加速的说法相矛盾，” 报告总结道。</p>
</div><p>Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Budget Lab at Yale University, said that the more accurate measure would be to compare the trends in import prices with themselves in the past and that the CEA’s own numbers show “import prices have accelerated in recent months.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耶鲁大学预算实验室的经济学主任厄尼·特德斯基表示，更准确的衡量标准是将进口价格的趋势与过去进行比较，而经济顾问委员会自己的数据表明 “最近几个月进口价格加速上涨。”</p>
</div><p>The latest estimate from the Budget Lab at Yale is the tariffs would cause the average household to have $2,400 less than it would otherwise have.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耶鲁大学预算实验室的最新估计是，关税将导致普通家庭比原本少 2400 美元。</p>
</div><p>Keeping the economy on a knife's edge</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让经济处于刀尖之上。</p>
</div><p>Josh Smith, founder and president of Montana Knife Co., called himself a Trump voter but said he sees the tariffs on foreign steel and other goods as threatening his business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蒙大拿刀具公司的创始人兼总裁乔什·史密斯称自己是特朗普的支持者，但表示他认为对外国钢铁和其他商品的关税威胁到了他的业务。</p>
</div><p>For instance, Smith just ordered a $515,000 machine from Germany that grinds his knife blades to a sharp edge. Trump had imposed a 10% tax on products from the EU that is set to rise to 15% under the trade framework he announced Sunday. So Trump’s tax on the machine comes to $77,250 — about enough for Smith to hire an entry-level worker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，史密斯刚刚从德国订购了一台价值 515,000 美元的机器，用于将他的刀片磨锐。特朗普对来自欧盟的产品征收 10% 的税，这一税率将在他周日宣布的贸易框架下提高到 15%。因此，史密斯需要为这台机器支付 77,250 美元的税——这大约足够他雇佣一名初级员工。</p>
</div><p>Smith would happily buy the bevel-grinding machines from an American supplier. But there aren’t any. “There’s only two companies in the world that make them, and they’re both in Germany,’’ Smith said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>史密斯很乐意从美国供应商那里购买斜面磨削机。但没有这样的供应商。“世界上只有两家公司生产这种机器，它们都在德国，” 史密斯说。</p>
</div><p>Then there’s imported steel, which Trump is taxing at 50%. Until this year, Montana Knife bought the powdered steel it needs from Crucible Industries in Syracuse, New York. But Crucible declared bankruptcy last December, and its assets were purchased by a Swedish firm, Erasteel, which moved production to Sweden.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后是进口钢材，特朗普对其征收 50% 的税。今年之前，蒙大拿刀具公司从纽约锡拉丘兹的克鲁西布工业公司购买所需的粉末钢。但克鲁西布去年 12 月宣布破产，其资产被瑞典公司 Erasteel 收购，并将生产转移到瑞典。</p>
</div><p>Smith beat the tariffs by buying a year’s worth of the steel in advance. But starting in 2026, the specialty steel he’ll be importing from Sweden is set to be hit with a 50% duty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>史密斯通过提前购买一年的钢材来规避关税。但从 2026 年开始，他将从瑞典进口的特种钢材将面临 50% 的关税。</p>
</div><p>“The average American is not sitting in the position I am, looking at the numbers I am and making the decisions each day, like, ‘Hey, we cannot hire those extra few people because we might have to pay this tariff on this steel or this tariff on this grinder,’'' he said. “I want to buy more equipment and hire more people. That’s what I want to do.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“普通美国人并没有像我这样，面对我所面对的数字，每天做出决定，比如，‘嘿，我们不能再雇几个人，因为我们可能需要为这钢材或这磨床支付关税，’” 他说。“我想购买更多设备，雇佣更多人。这就是我想做的。”</p>
</div><h2>Should You Invest $1,000 in Amazon.com Right Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该投资 1,000 美元在亚马逊吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you consider Amazon.com, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考虑亚马逊之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Amazon.com wasn't on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已识别出五只顶级分析师正在悄悄向客户推荐的股票，建议在更广泛的市场注意到之前购买……而亚马逊并不在名单上。</p>
</div><p>While Amazon.com currently has a Buy rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然亚马逊目前在分析师中获得了买入评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
</div><p>View The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>
</div>

Trump's tariffs could squeeze US factories and boost costs by up to 4.5%, a new analysis finds

- 特朗普计划提高关税，制造业成本预计增加 2% 至 4.5%。  
- 分析显示，关税可能导致工资停滞、裁员和工厂关闭。  
- 制造业面临新成本，经济复苏前景不明。  

一项新的分析发现，特朗普的关税可能会压缩美国工厂，并使成本增加最多达 4.5%