<p>在周一的交易结束时，<strong>亚马逊公司 NASDAQ: AMZN</strong> 的股价刚刚低于 233 美元，目前的交易价格距离去年二月的历史高点仅有 10 美元。自四月以来，股价上涨了 45%，这一表现可谓非同寻常，图表上呈现出清晰、持续的上涨趋势，伴随着更高的高点和更高的低点。</p><p>但随着亚马逊备受期待的第二季度财报将在周四公布，投资者现在需要问自己：这波上涨是否过于完美？市场情绪是否过热？如果财报强劲但不出色，是否会引发回调？让我们深入分析一下。</p><h2 id="a889wb9iu">看涨论点：清晰的趋势，强劲的支撑</h2><p>首先，我们必须承认的是，自四月以来的图表是完美无瑕的。自该月初触底以来，亚马逊几乎没有回头。动能保持强劲，几乎没有重大回调，牛市投资者积极捍卫并在每次下跌中买入。</p><p>该股票的相对强弱指数（RSI）为 68，温和，但远未超买。从技术上讲，当前的形势无疑是看涨的。</p><p>再加上分析师们的持续支持。本周，瑞银和摩根士丹利分别 <strong>重申了他们的买入和超配评级</strong>，并将目标价提升至高达 271 美元。</p><p>如果亚马逊在接下来的几周和几个月内达到这一目标，将远超二月的历史高点，进入蓝天区域。</p><p>关键是，亚马逊的基本面继续提供支持。对周四财报的共识预期是，收入同比增长 9.4%，每股收益的增长预计接近 3.6%。</p><p>毫不奇怪，该公司的 AWS 部门预计将贡献相当可观的收入，华尔街的许多人预测其收入将在下半年及以后加速增长。</p><h2 id="q31n9lv">看跌论点：预期过高</h2><p>然而，这里有一个反驳的观点：当一只股票如此强劲上涨这么长时间时，设定了一个非常高的标准。尽管分析师们预计上涨将继续，但亚马逊可能需要提供的不仅仅是强劲的数字，以证明近期的上涨是合理的。</p><p>请记住，该股票的市盈率（P/E）现在为 38，相较于上个季度略显高企，与 <strong>字母表公司 NASDAQ: GOOGL</strong> 的市盈率接近 20 相比，显得更加昂贵。</p><p>这样的估值要求明确的利润扩张、加速的收入增长和/或引人注目的人工智能叙事。任何低于这一标准的表现都可能让投资者失望，并促使他们急于获利了结。</p><p>一些裂痕已经开始显现；预计每股收益 3.6% 的增长感觉有些乏善可陈。该公司的自由现金流在最近几个季度也在下降，进一步的迹象可能会对关注资本配置的长期投资者构成警示，尤其是在人工智能基础设施成本飙升和地缘政治风险加大的背景下。</p><h2 id="tyxp2bqbr">现在是谨慎还是自信的时候？</h2><p>如果你已经持有该股，继续持有到财报发布是有充分理由的。如上所述，趋势依然存在，分析师群体支持该股，亚马逊显示出全面发力的迹象。</p><p>但如果你打算建立新头寸，可能需要保持一些谨慎；仅仅一个疲软的数据点或保守的评论就可能使股价回落。而且问题在于：由于亚马逊的上涨几乎没有回调，除非回到 200 美元左右，否则没有明确的支撑线，这很危险。</p><p>然而，亚马逊仍然是全球最具主导地位的企业之一，本周的财报将是再次证明这一点的机会。即使在财报发布后出现回调，请记住，调整是 <strong>长期上涨趋势</strong> 中健康且必要的一部分，这也是投资者和华尔街今天看待亚马逊的方式。</p>

亚马逊

亚马逊每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>亚马逊的股票自四月以来上涨了 45%，接近历史最高点，预计将在第二季度财报发布前达到这一水平。分析师们依然看好，目标价高达 271 美元，预计收入增长将支持这一目标。然而，高期望和 38 的市盈率引发了担忧，这可能需要出色的业绩来证明此次上涨的合理性。投资者被建议保持谨慎，因为任何令人失望的数据都可能导致获利回吐。尽管可能出现回调，亚马逊在市场上的主导地位依然强劲，使得即将发布的财报对其未来表现至关重要</p>

<p>Having closed out Monday's session just under $233, shares of tech giant <strong>Amazon.com Inc. NASDAQ: AMZN</strong> are now trading within just $10 of their all-time high from last February. The 45% rally since April has been nothing short of extraordinary, a clean, uninterrupted move upward with higher highs and higher lows dominating the chart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周一的交易结束时，<strong>亚马逊公司 NASDAQ: AMZN</strong> 的股价刚刚低于 233 美元，目前的交易价格距离去年二月的历史高点仅有 10 美元。自四月以来，股价上涨了 45%，这一表现可谓非同寻常，图表上呈现出清晰、持续的上涨趋势，伴随着更高的高点和更高的低点。</p>
</div><p>But with Amazon's much-anticipated Q2 earnings due on Thursday, investors now need to ask themselves: has the rally been too perfect? Is sentiment running too hot? Could a strong but not exceptional report trigger a pullback? Let's jump in and take a closer look.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着亚马逊备受期待的第二季度财报将在周四公布，投资者现在需要问自己：这波上涨是否过于完美？市场情绪是否过热？如果财报强劲但不出色，是否会引发回调？让我们深入分析一下。</p>
</div><h2>The Bull Case: Clean Trend, Strong Support</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>看涨论点：清晰的趋势，强劲的支撑</h2>
</div><p>Let's start with what's undeniable. The chart, since April, is immaculate. Since bottoming out at the start of that month, Amazon has barely looked back. Momentum has stayed strong, with effectively no major pullbacks, and the bulls have aggressively defended and bought into every dip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，我们必须承认的是，自四月以来的图表是完美无瑕的。自该月初触底以来，亚马逊几乎没有回头。动能保持强劲，几乎没有重大回调，牛市投资者积极捍卫并在每次下跌中买入。</p>
</div><p>The stock's relative strength index (RSI) is 68, warm, but far from overbought. Technically, the setup remains undoubtedly bullish.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该股票的相对强弱指数（RSI）为 68，温和，但远未超买。从技术上讲，当前的形势无疑是看涨的。</p>
</div><p>Add to that the unrelenting analyst support. Already this week, the likes of UBS and Morgan Stanley <strong>reiterated their Buy and Overweight ratings</strong>, respectively, with their boosted price targets now ranging as high as $271.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再加上分析师们的持续支持。本周，瑞银和摩根士丹利分别 <strong>重申了他们的买入和超配评级</strong>，并将目标价提升至高达 271 美元。</p>
</div><p>If Amazon were to hit this in the coming weeks and months, it'd be well above February's all-time high and far into blue sky territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果亚马逊在接下来的几周和几个月内达到这一目标，将远超二月的历史高点，进入蓝天区域。</p>
</div><p>Crucially, Amazon's fundamentals continue to offer support. Consensus estimates for Thursday's report call for a 9.4% year-over-year (YOY) increase in revenue, with earnings per share growth expected to be closer to 3.6% YOY.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键是，亚马逊的基本面继续提供支持。对周四财报的共识预期是，收入同比增长 9.4%，每股收益的增长预计接近 3.6%。</p>
</div><p>Unsurprisingly, the company's AWS unit is expected to contribute quite a bit, with many on Wall Street forecasting its revenue will accelerate into the year's second half and beyond.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫不奇怪，该公司的 AWS 部门预计将贡献相当可观的收入，华尔街的许多人预测其收入将在下半年及以后加速增长。</p>
</div><h2>The Bear Case: Expectations Are Sky-High</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>看跌论点：预期过高</h2>
</div><p>However, here's the counter-argument: when a stock rallies this hard for this long, it sets a very high bar. And even though analysts are calling for the rally to continue, Amazon may need to deliver more than just strong numbers to justify the recent move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这里有一个反驳的观点：当一只股票如此强劲上涨这么长时间时，设定了一个非常高的标准。尽管分析师们预计上涨将继续，但亚马逊可能需要提供的不仅仅是强劲的数字，以证明近期的上涨是合理的。</p>
</div><p>Keep in mind that the stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is now at 38, a little frothier compared to last quarter and certainly richer when stacked against peers like <strong>Alphabet Inc NASDAQ: GOOGL</strong>, which has a P/E ratio closer to 20.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请记住，该股票的市盈率（P/E）现在为 38，相较于上个季度略显高企，与 <strong>字母表公司 NASDAQ: GOOGL</strong> 的市盈率接近 20 相比，显得更加昂贵。</p>
</div><p>That kind of valuation demands clear margin expansion, accelerating revenue growth, and/or a blowout AI narrative. Anything less could easily disappoint investors and send them rushing to take profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这样的估值要求明确的利润扩张、加速的收入增长和/或引人注目的人工智能叙事。任何低于这一标准的表现都可能让投资者失望，并促使他们急于获利了结。</p>
</div><p>Some cracks are already being watched; the forecasted 3.6% growth in EPS feels a tad underwhelming. The company's free cash flow has also been declining in recent quarters, and further signs of this trend could be a red flag for long-term investors concerned about capital allocation in the face of surging AI infrastructure costs and geopolitical risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些裂痕已经开始显现；预计每股收益 3.6% 的增长感觉有些乏善可陈。该公司的自由现金流在最近几个季度也在下降，进一步的迹象可能会对关注资本配置的长期投资者构成警示，尤其是在人工智能基础设施成本飙升和地缘政治风险加大的背景下。</p>
</div><h2>Time to Be Cautious or Confident?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在是谨慎还是自信的时候？</h2>
</div><p>If you're already long, there's a strong case for holding through earnings. As noted above, the trend is intact, the analyst community is behind the stock, and Amazon is showing signs of firing on all cylinders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你已经持有该股，继续持有到财报发布是有充分理由的。如上所述，趋势依然存在，分析师群体支持该股，亚马逊显示出全面发力的迹象。</p>
</div><p>But if you're looking to initiate a new position, some caution might be warranted; just one soft datapoint or conservative comment could knock the stock back. And here's the rub: because Amazon's rally has had few to no pullbacks, there's no clear line of support unless you go back to around the $200 mark, and that's dangerous.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果你打算建立新头寸，可能需要保持一些谨慎；仅仅一个疲软的数据点或保守的评论就可能使股价回落。而且问题在于：由于亚马逊的上涨几乎没有回调，除非回到 200 美元左右，否则没有明确的支撑线，这很危险。</p>
</div><p>However, Amazon remains one of the most dominant businesses in the world, and this week's earnings will be an opportunity to prove that once again. Even if there is a post-earnings pullback, remember, corrections are a healthy and necessary part of a <strong>longer-term uptrend</strong>, and that's ultimately how investors and Wall Street alike are looking at Amazon today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，亚马逊仍然是全球最具主导地位的企业之一，本周的财报将是再次证明这一点的机会。即使在财报发布后出现回调，请记住，调整是 <strong>长期上涨趋势</strong> 中健康且必要的一部分，这也是投资者和华尔街今天看待亚马逊的方式。</p>
</div><h2>Should You Invest $1,000 in Amazon.com Right Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该投资 1,000 美元在亚马逊吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you consider Amazon.com, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考虑亚马逊之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Amazon.com wasn't on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已经识别出五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向客户推荐，现在就买入，以便在更广泛的市场注意到之前……而亚马逊并不在名单上。</p>
</div><p>While Amazon.com currently has a Buy rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然亚马逊目前在分析师中获得了买入评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得投资。</p>
</div><p>View The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看这五只股票的详细信息</p>
</div>

Amazon's Pre-Earnings Setup Is Almost Too Clean—Red Flag?

- 亚马逊股价接近历史高点，4 月以来上涨 45%。  
- Q2 财报即将发布，市场对业绩预期高。  
- 投资者需谨慎，若业绩未达预期可能引发回调。

亚马逊的财报发布前的准备工作几乎过于完美——这是一个危险信号吗？