<p><em>要获得优势，您今天需要了解这些信息。</em></p>
<h4><strong>反向指标</strong></h4>
<p>请点击这里查看 <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> SPY 的放大图，该基金代表基准股市指数 S&amp;P 500 (SPX)。</p>
<p>请注意以下几点：</p>
<ul>
<li>股市持续创下历史新高。</li>
<li>图表显示股市稳稳位于第一区域（支撑）之上。</li>
<li>图表上的相对强弱指数（RSI）显示股市极度超买。超买市场容易出现回调。</li>
<li><strong>股市情绪依然极为积极。</strong> <strong>当情绪处于极度积极区间时，这是一种反向信号，因为几乎所有短期内会买入的人都已经买入。当负面消息出现时，市场上没有买家来缓冲下跌。通俗来说，这意味着要保持谨慎。重要的是要记住，情绪并不是一个精确的时机指标。</strong></li>
<li>今天早上 <strong>UnitedHealth Group Inc</strong> (UNH)、<strong>PayPal Holdings Inc</strong> (PYPL)、<strong>Spotify Technology SA</strong> (SPOT)、<strong>United Parcel Service Inc</strong> (UPS)、<strong>Sysco Corp</strong> (SYY) 和 <strong>Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd</strong> (RCL) 的重要财报低于市场预期。目前，动量投资者似乎对此毫不在意。即使是非动量投资者也似乎不太关心，因为他们关注的是本周晚些时候 <strong>Microsoft Corp</strong>(MSFT)、<strong>Meta Platforms Inc</strong> (META)、<strong>Apple Inc</strong>(AAPL) 和 <strong>Amazon.com, Inc.</strong> (AMZN) 的财报。</li>
<li>FOMC 会议今天开始，面临着降息的巨大压力。美联储将在明天下午 2 点（东部时间）宣布利率决定，随后美联储主席鲍威尔将在下午 2:30（东部时间）召开新闻发布会。如果没有降息，明天可能是美联储内部出现分歧的少数几次之一。<strong>共识是不会降息。然而，在我们的分析中，意外降息的可能性不能排除。</strong></li>
<li>美中贸易谈判仍在继续。</li>
<li>欧盟和美国正在敲定贸易协议的细节。</li>
<li>消费者信心和 JOLTS 职位空缺数据于上午 10 点（东部时间）发布。</li>
</ul>
<h4><strong>七大巨头资金流动</strong></h4>
<p>在早盘交易中，亚马逊 (AMZN) 和 <strong>NVIDIA Corp</strong> (NVDA) 的资金流动为正。</p>
<p>在早盘交易中，苹果 (AAPL)、Meta (META) 和微软 (MSFT) 的资金流动为中性。</p>
<p>在早盘交易中，<strong>Alphabet Inc Class C</strong> (GOOG) 和 <strong>Tesla Inc</strong> (TSLA) 的资金流动为负。</p>
<p>在早盘交易中，S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) 和 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1</strong> (QQQ) 的资金流动为正。</p>
<h4><strong>动量投资者与聪明资金在股票中的表现</strong></h4>
<p>热门投资机会</p>
<p>投资者可以通过了解 SPY 和 QQQ 的资金流动来获得优势。投资者可以通过了解聪明资金何时购买股票、黄金和石油来获得更大的优势。黄金最受欢迎的 ETF 是 <strong>SPDR Gold Trust</strong> (GLD)。白银最受欢迎的 ETF 是 <strong>iShares Silver Trust</strong>(SLV)。石油最受欢迎的 ETF 是 <strong>United States Oil ETF</strong> (USO)。</p>
<h4><strong>比特币</strong></h4>
<p><strong>比特币</strong> 正在受到买入。</p>
<h4><strong>我们的保护带及当前应对措施</strong></h4>
<p>考虑继续持有良好的、长期的现有头寸。根据个人风险偏好，考虑使用现金或国债、短期战术交易以及短期到中期对冲的保护带。这是一种保护自己并同时参与上涨的好方法。</p>
<p>您可以通过将现金添加到对冲中来确定您的保护带。保护的高带适合年长或保守的人。保护的低带适合年轻或激进的人。如果您不进行对冲，总现金水平应高于上述所述，但显著低于现金加对冲的总和。</p>
<p>0% 的保护带将非常看涨，表示全额投资且现金为 0%。100% 的保护带将非常看跌，表示需要通过现金和对冲或激进的卖空进行强有力的保护。</p>
<p><strong>值得提醒的是，如果您没有足够的现金，您无法利用即将到来的新机会。</strong> 在调整对冲水平时，考虑调整股票头寸（非 ETF）的部分止损数量；考虑对剩余数量使用更宽的止损，并为高贝塔股票留出更多空间。高贝塔股票是指那些波动幅度大于市场的股票。</p>
<h4><strong>传统 60/40 投资组合</strong></h4>
<p>基于概率的风险回报调整考虑通胀，目前并不支持长期战略债券配置。</p>
<p>那些希望坚持传统的 60% 股票和 40% 债券配置的人，可以考虑仅关注高质量债券和五年期或更短的债券。愿意提升投资复杂度的人可以考虑将债券 ETF 作为战术头寸，而不是在此时作为战略头寸。</p>
<p><strong><em>Benzinga 免责声明：本文来自未付费的外部贡献者。它不代表 Benzinga 的报道，并且未经过内容或准确性编辑。</em></strong></p>
<p><strong>请点击这里注册免费永远的</strong> <strong>财富生成通讯</strong> <strong>。</strong></p>

亚马逊

英伟达

<p>股市正达到历史新高，但市场情绪极为乐观，这可能预示着潜在的回调。主要公司的关键财报低于预期，同时市场也在关注美联储的利率决策。亚马逊和英伟达的资金流入表现积极，而建议投资者采取现金保护策略。传统的 60/40 投资组合可能需要调整，重点关注高质量债券。投资者应保持谨慎，并考虑对冲策略以保护自己免受市场波动的影响</p>

<p><em>To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>要获得优势，您今天需要了解这些信息。</em></p>
</div><h4><strong>Contrary Indicator</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>反向指标</strong></h4>
</div><p>Please click here for an enlarged chart of <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> SPY which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请点击这里查看 <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> SPY 的放大图，该基金代表基准股市指数 S&amp;P 500 (SPX)。</p>
</div><p>Note the following:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请注意以下几点：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>The stock market continues to hit new all time highs.</li>
<li>The chart shows the stock market is comfortably above zone 1 (support).</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows the stock market is extremely overbought. Overbought markets are susceptible to a pullback.</li>
<li><strong>Sentiment in the stock market remains extremely positive.</strong> <strong>When sentiment is in the extreme positive zone, it is a contrary signal because almost everyone who is going to buy in the short term has already bought it. When negative news comes, there are no buyers left to cushion the fall. In plain English, this means to be cautious. It is important to remember sentiment is not a precise timing indicator.</strong></li>
<li>Important earnings this morning from <strong>UnitedHealth Group Inc</strong> (UNH), <strong>PayPal Holdings Inc</strong> (PYPL), <strong>Spotify Technology SA</strong> (SPOT), <strong>United Parcel Service Inc</strong> (UPS), <strong>Sysco Corp</strong> (SYY), and <strong>Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd</strong> (RCL) are below whisper numbers. So far, the momo crowd is oblivious. Even non-momo crowd investors do not seem to be concerned as they are focused on earnings from <strong>Microsoft Corp</strong>(MSFT), <strong>Meta Platforms Inc</strong> (META), <strong>Apple Inc</strong>(AAPL), and <strong>Amazon.com, Inc.</strong> (AMZN) later this week.</li>
<li>The FOMC meeting starts today under extreme pressure to cut interest rates. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision tomorrow at 2pm ET followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Powell at 2:30pm ET. Tomorrow may be one of the few times there is dissent at the Fed if there is not a rate cut. <strong>The consensus is for no rate cut. However, in our analysis, a surprise rate cut cannot be ruled out.</strong></li>
<li>Trade talks between the U.S. and China are continuing.</li>
<li>The E.U. and the U.S. are nailing down details of the trade deal.</li>
<li>Consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings were released at 10am ET.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>股市持续创下历史新高。</li>
<li>图表显示股市稳稳位于第一区域（支撑）之上。</li>
<li>图表上的相对强弱指数（RSI）显示股市极度超买。超买市场容易出现回调。</li>
<li><strong>股市情绪依然极为积极。</strong> <strong>当情绪处于极度积极区间时，这是一种反向信号，因为几乎所有短期内会买入的人都已经买入。当负面消息出现时，市场上没有买家来缓冲下跌。通俗来说，这意味着要保持谨慎。重要的是要记住，情绪并不是一个精确的时机指标。</strong></li>
<li>今天早上 <strong>UnitedHealth Group Inc</strong> (UNH)、<strong>PayPal Holdings Inc</strong> (PYPL)、<strong>Spotify Technology SA</strong> (SPOT)、<strong>United Parcel Service Inc</strong> (UPS)、<strong>Sysco Corp</strong> (SYY) 和 <strong>Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd</strong> (RCL) 的重要财报低于市场预期。目前，动量投资者似乎对此毫不在意。即使是非动量投资者也似乎不太关心，因为他们关注的是本周晚些时候 <strong>Microsoft Corp</strong>(MSFT)、<strong>Meta Platforms Inc</strong> (META)、<strong>Apple Inc</strong>(AAPL) 和 <strong>Amazon.com, Inc.</strong> (AMZN) 的财报。</li>
<li>FOMC 会议今天开始，面临着降息的巨大压力。美联储将在明天下午 2 点（东部时间）宣布利率决定，随后美联储主席鲍威尔将在下午 2:30（东部时间）召开新闻发布会。如果没有降息，明天可能是美联储内部出现分歧的少数几次之一。<strong>共识是不会降息。然而，在我们的分析中，意外降息的可能性不能排除。</strong></li>
<li>美中贸易谈判仍在继续。</li>
<li>欧盟和美国正在敲定贸易协议的细节。</li>
<li>消费者信心和 JOLTS 职位空缺数据于上午 10 点（东部时间）发布。</li>
</ul>
</div><h4><strong>Magnificent Seven Money Flows</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>七大巨头资金流动</strong></h4>
</div><p>In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN) and <strong>NVIDIA Corp</strong> (NVDA).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在早盘交易中，亚马逊 (AMZN) 和 <strong>NVIDIA Corp</strong> (NVDA) 的资金流动为正。</p>
</div><p>In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在早盘交易中，苹果 (AAPL)、Meta (META) 和微软 (MSFT) 的资金流动为中性。</p>
</div><p>In the early trade, money flows are negative in <strong>Alphabet Inc Class C</strong> (GOOG) and <strong>Tesla Inc</strong> (TSLA).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在早盘交易中，<strong>Alphabet Inc Class C</strong> (GOOG) 和 <strong>Tesla Inc</strong> (TSLA) 的资金流动为负。</p>
</div><p>In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) and <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1</strong> (QQQ).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在早盘交易中，S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) 和 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1</strong> (QQQ) 的资金流动为正。</p>
</div><h4><strong>Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>动量投资者与聪明资金在股票中的表现</strong></h4>
</div><p>Trending Investment Opportunities</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>热门投资机会</p>
</div><p>Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is <strong>SPDR Gold Trust</strong> (GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is <strong>iShares Silver Trust</strong>(SLV). The most popular ETF for oil is <strong>United States Oil ETF</strong> (USO).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者可以通过了解 SPY 和 QQQ 的资金流动来获得优势。投资者可以通过了解聪明资金何时购买股票、黄金和石油来获得更大的优势。黄金最受欢迎的 ETF 是 <strong>SPDR Gold Trust</strong> (GLD)。白银最受欢迎的 ETF 是 <strong>iShares Silver Trust</strong>(SLV)。石油最受欢迎的 ETF 是 <strong>United States Oil ETF</strong> (USO)。</p>
</div><h4><strong>Bitcoin</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>比特币</strong></h4>
</div><p><strong>Bitcoin</strong> is seeing buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特币</strong> 正在受到买入。</p>
</div><h4><strong>Our Protection Band And What To Do Now</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>我们的保护带及当前应对措施</strong></h4>
</div><p>Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑继续持有良好的、长期的现有头寸。根据个人风险偏好，考虑使用现金或国债、短期战术交易以及短期到中期对冲的保护带。这是一种保护自己并同时参与上涨的好方法。</p>
</div><p>You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>您可以通过将现金添加到对冲中来确定您的保护带。保护的高带适合年长或保守的人。保护的低带适合年轻或激进的人。如果您不进行对冲，总现金水平应高于上述所述，但显著低于现金加对冲的总和。</p>
</div><p>A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0% 的保护带将非常看涨，表示全额投资且现金为 0%。100% 的保护带将非常看跌，表示需要通过现金和对冲或激进的卖空进行强有力的保护。</p>
</div><p><strong>It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.</strong> When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>值得提醒的是，如果您没有足够的现金，您无法利用即将到来的新机会。</strong> 在调整对冲水平时，考虑调整股票头寸（非 ETF）的部分止损数量；考虑对剩余数量使用更宽的止损，并为高贝塔股票留出更多空间。高贝塔股票是指那些波动幅度大于市场的股票。</p>
</div><h4><strong>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>传统 60/40 投资组合</strong></h4>
</div><p>Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于概率的风险回报调整考虑通胀，目前并不支持长期战略债券配置。</p>
</div><p>Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那些希望坚持传统的 60% 股票和 40% 债券配置的人，可以考虑仅关注高质量债券和五年期或更短的债券。愿意提升投资复杂度的人可以考虑将债券 ETF 作为战术头寸，而不是在此时作为战略头寸。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>Benzinga 免责声明：本文来自未付费的外部贡献者。它不代表 Benzinga 的报道，并且未经过内容或准确性编辑。</em></strong></p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>请点击这里注册免费永远的</strong> <strong>财富生成通讯</strong> <strong>。</strong></p>
</div>

What Prudent Investors Should Know As All-Time-Market-Highs Mix With Extreme Sentiment

- 股市持续创下新高，情绪极度乐观，需谨慎。  
- 重要公司财报低于预期，市场关注即将公布的美联储利率决策。  
- 投资者应考虑持有现金以应对潜在风险，同时参与市场上涨。  

当市场创下历史新高并伴随着极端情绪时，谨慎的投资者应该了解哪些信息