<p>随着人工智能（AI）进入主流，受生成式 AI 工具如 ChatGPT 的普及推动，众多科技公司以及任何利用 AI 的行业公司都见证了其估值的飞速上涨。</p>
<p>没有哪只股票比 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -0.80%）更能从近期的 AI 发展中受益，该公司在过去三年中上涨超过 900%，并且是全球市值最高的上市公司，市值超过 4.2 万亿美元。相比之下，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 在此期间 “仅” 上涨了约 60%。</p>
<p>在 8 月 27 日，Nvidia 将公布其财年的第二季度财报。只有时间能揭示这些财报的内容，但投资者自然会想知道是否应该在财报发布前购买 Nvidia 的股票，以便在财报发布后可能获得股价上涨的机会。</p>
<p>理论上，如果你预期结果良好，这听起来是一个明智的举动；然而，历史表明，这并不总是对投资者有利，无论财报结果如何。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjY1OTkvbnZkYV9udmlkaWFfY29ycF8yMDI1LTA3LTI0LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="525" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjY1OTkvbnZkYV9udmlkaWFfY29ycF8yMDI1LTA3LTI0LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>盈利与股票表现之间没有关联</h2>
<p>在上面的图表中，首先要注意的是，Nvidia 的盈利与其股票价格的即时表现之间没有一致性。以下是 Nvidia 在过去四次财报发布后第二天的股票表现：</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>报告日期</th>
<th>超过每股收益预期？</th>
<th>次日股票表现</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2025 年 5 月</td>
<td>否</td>
<td>(2.9%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2025 年 2 月</td>
<td>是</td>
<td>(8.5%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024 年 11 月</td>
<td>是</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024 年 8 月</td>
<td>是</td>
<td>(6.4%)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：AlphaQuery 和 YCharts。</p>
<p>即使在超过盈利预期后，Nvidia 的股票在次日也经历了明显的下跌。这表明投资者并不仅仅关心超出或低于预期的表现。他们可能还在关注未来的指引、估值和整体市场情绪等因素。</p>
<p>不论是否存在关联，值得记住的一点是，试图把握市场时机往往会令人失望，并且可能适得其反。即使看起来某只股票的价格应该因结果而朝某个方向移动，股市并不总是按照逻辑因果关系运作。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 的高估值几乎没有出错的空间</h2>
<p>Nvidia 过去 12 个月的市销率（P/S）为 29，是标准普尔 500 指数中最高的，且是标准普尔 500 平均水平的 10 倍。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d32b90182ac5708ca241726644209452.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="507" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d32b90182ac5708ca241726644209452.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市销率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>这种超高的估值使 Nvidia 几乎没有出错的空间——或者说投资者可能认为的错误——并可能增加波动性。如果你喜欢 Nvidia 这家公司，一个明智的策略是进行定投。这将使你能够慢慢积累股份，并抵消一些波动风险。</p>
<p>尽管短期内出现下跌，Nvidia 的股票仍显示出长期增长，这正是投资者应该最关注并依赖的。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达（NVDA）在过去三年中股价上涨了惊人的 900%，这主要得益于人工智能技术的崛起。随着公司准备在 8 月 27 日公布其 2024 财年第二季度财报，投资者正在考虑是否在公告前买入。然而，历史数据表明，财报与股价表现之间没有一致的相关性，这表明市场时机选择可能无效。英伟达的高市销率表明其容错空间有限，因此建议投资者采用定投策略</p>

<p>With the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) into the mainstream, driven by the popularity of generative AI tools like ChatGPT, numerous tech companies -- as well as those from any industry that utilizes AI -- have seen their valuations skyrocket.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着人工智能（AI）进入主流，受生成式 AI 工具如 ChatGPT 的普及推动，众多科技公司以及任何利用 AI 的行业公司都见证了其估值的飞速上涨。</p>
</div><p>No stock has benefited more from recent AI developments than <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.80%), which is up over 900% in just the past three years and is the world's most valuable public company with a market capitalization of over $4.2 trillion. For perspective, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> is &#34;only&#34; up around 60% in that span.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有哪只股票比 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -0.80%）更能从近期的 AI 发展中受益，该公司在过去三年中上涨超过 900%，并且是全球市值最高的上市公司，市值超过 4.2 万亿美元。相比之下，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 在此期间 “仅” 上涨了约 60%。</p>
</div><p>On Aug. 27, Nvidia is set to report its fiscal second-quarter earnings. Only time will tell what those earnings reveal, but it's natural for investors to wonder if they should buy Nvidia's stock before the earnings to potentially take advantage of a post-earnings stock price boost.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 8 月 27 日，Nvidia 将公布其财年的第二季度财报。只有时间能揭示这些财报的内容，但投资者自然会想知道是否应该在财报发布前购买 Nvidia 的股票，以便在财报发布后可能获得股价上涨的机会。</p>
</div><p>In theory, it sounds like a smart move if you anticipate good results; however, history has shown that this doesn't always work out in investors' favor, regardless of the earnings results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>理论上，如果你预期结果良好，这听起来是一个明智的举动；然而，历史表明，这并不总是对投资者有利，无论财报结果如何。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjY1OTkvbnZkYV9udmlkaWFfY29ycF8yMDI1LTA3LTI0LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F826599%2Fnvda_nvidia_corp_2025-07-24.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>No correlation between earnings and stock performance</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>盈利与股票表现之间没有关联</h2>
</div><p>The first thing to notice in the above chart is that there's no consistency between Nvidia's earnings and the immediate performance of its stock price. Below is how Nvidia's stock price has performed the day after its past four earnings reports:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上面的图表中，首先要注意的是，Nvidia 的盈利与其股票价格的即时表现之间没有一致性。以下是 Nvidia 在过去四次财报发布后第二天的股票表现：</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Reporting Date</th>
<th>Beat Earnings Per Share Expectations?</th>
<th>Next-Day Stock Performance</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>May 2025</td>
<td>No</td>
<td>(2.9%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>February 2025</td>
<td>Yes</td>
<td>(8.5%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>November 2024</td>
<td>Yes</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>August 2024</td>
<td>Yes</td>
<td>(6.4%)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>报告日期</th>
<th>超过每股收益预期？</th>
<th>次日股票表现</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2025 年 5 月</td>
<td>否</td>
<td>(2.9%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2025 年 2 月</td>
<td>是</td>
<td>(8.5%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024 年 11 月</td>
<td>是</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024 年 8 月</td>
<td>是</td>
<td>(6.4%)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: AlphaQuery and YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：AlphaQuery 和 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Even after beating earnings expectations, Nvidia's stock has experienced noticeable declines on the next day. This shows that investors aren't solely concerned about over- or underperformance. They may also be looking at factors like future guidance, valuations, and overall market sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在超过盈利预期后，Nvidia 的股票在次日也经历了明显的下跌。这表明投资者并不仅仅关心超出或低于预期的表现。他们可能还在关注未来的指引、估值和整体市场情绪等因素。</p>
</div><p>Correlation (or lack thereof) aside, one thing to keep in mind is that trying to time the market is a recipe for disappointment and can often be counterproductive. Even if it seems like a stock's price <em>should</em> move in a certain direction because of results, the stock market doesn't operate on logical cause and effect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不论是否存在关联，值得记住的一点是，试图把握市场时机往往会令人失望，并且可能适得其反。即使看起来某只股票的价格应该因结果而朝某个方向移动，股市并不总是按照逻辑因果关系运作。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's high valuation leaves little room for error</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 的高估值几乎没有出错的空间</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia's trailing-12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 29 is the highest you'll find in an S&amp;P 500 stock and 10 times the S&amp;P 500 average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 过去 12 个月的市销率（P/S）为 29，是标准普尔 500 指数中最高的，且是标准普尔 500 平均水平的 10 倍。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d32b90182ac5708ca241726644209452.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d32b90182ac5708ca241726644209452.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市销率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>This ultra-high valuation leaves Nvidia with little room for error -- or what investors may perceive as error -- and can increase volatility. If you like Nvidia as a company, a smart strategy would be to dollar-cost average. This will allow you to slowly but surely accumulate shares and offset some of the volatility risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种超高的估值使 Nvidia 几乎没有出错的空间——或者说投资者可能认为的错误——并可能增加波动性。如果你喜欢 Nvidia 这家公司，一个明智的策略是进行定投。这将使你能够慢慢积累股份，并抵消一些波动风险。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's stock has shown long-term growth despite short-term drops, and that's what investors should focus on the most and bank on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管短期内出现下跌，Nvidia 的股票仍显示出长期增长，这正是投资者应该最关注并依赖的。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Before Aug. 27? Here's What History Says.

- 人工智能的兴起使得许多科技公司估值飙升，Nvidia 市值超过 4.2 万亿美元。  
- Nvidia 的股价与财报表现之间缺乏一致性，投资者需关注未来指引和市场情绪。  
- 高估值使 Nvidia 面临更大波动风险，建议投资者采取定投策略。  

你是否应该在 8 月 27 日之前购买英伟达（NVDA）股票？历史告诉我们什么