<p>当 ChatGPT 于 2022 年 11 月 30 日向更广泛的公众发布时，<strong>英伟达</strong> 的市值仅为 3450 亿美元。截至 2025 年 7 月 25 日收盘，其市值已超过 4.2 万亿美元，使其成为全球最有价值的公司，且差距相当大。</p>
<p>鉴于这些历史性的增长，对于许多成长型投资者来说，人工智能（AI）运动围绕着英伟达展开并不令人惊讶。此时，该公司基本上被视为衡量整个 AI 领域整体健康状况的晴雨表。</p>
<p>很难对英伟达下注，但我确实看到半导体领域中还有另一只股票似乎在长期增长方面更具优势。</p>
<p>让我们探讨一下为什么 <strong>台积电</strong>（TSM 0.66%）在当前芯片领域是一个如此引人注目的机会，以及可能推动其回报超过英伟达的催化因素。</p>
<h2>AI 基础设施浪潮刚刚开始</h2>
<p>我喜欢将 AI 叙事视为一个故事。在过去的几年中，最大的篇章围绕着被称为图形处理单元（GPU）的先进芯片组展开，这些芯片组被广泛应用于各种生成性 AI 应用中。这些应用包括构建大型语言模型（LLM）、机器学习、机器人技术、自动驾驶汽车等。</p>
<p>这些不同的应用现在才开始逐渐显现。AI 故事中的下一个大篇章是基础设施将如何在实际开发和扩展这些更先进的技术中发挥作用。</p>
<p>全球管理咨询公司麦肯锡公司估计，未来五年对 AI 基础设施的投资可能达到 6.7 万亿美元，其中相当一部分将用于数据中心的硬件。</p>
<p>基于这一想法，考虑到云计算巨头 <strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>谷歌</strong>，以及它们的 “七大巨头” 同行 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>，预计仅在今年就将投入超过 3300 亿美元用于资本支出（capex）。其中大部分将用于额外的服务器、芯片和网络设备，以加速 AI 数据中心的扩展。</p>
<p>在我看来，全球最大企业在资本支出上的激进投资是 AI 基础设施浪潮开始成形的强烈信号。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjY1NDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ2ODI2NjE1MS0zLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjY1NDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ2ODI2NjE1MS0zLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>这对英伟达来说是个好消息，对台积电来说更是好消息</h2>
<p>不断增长的 AI 基础设施投资对英伟达来说是一个良好的顺风，但对 <strong>超微</strong>、<strong>博通</strong> 和许多其他公司来说也是一个增长来源。</p>
<p>然而，与 AMD 或英伟达不同，台积电（简称 TSMC）的增长并不真正依赖于某一特定产品线的成功。换句话说，英伟达和 AMD 正在激烈竞争，以赢得 AI 工作负载，这归结为它们谁能设计出最强大、最节能且价格合理的芯片。</p>
<p>围绕台积电的投资案例在于，它可以被视为 AI 芯片市场中的一个更中立的参与者，因为其代工和制造服务将受益于推动 AI 基础设施的更广泛、更加世俗的顺风——无论是哪个公司的芯片创造了最多的需求。</p>
<p>可以把台积电看作是实际制造出英伟达、AMD 和其他芯片公司所需的工具和设备的公司，这些公司需要在彼此之间竞争并进行销售。</p>
<h2>台积电的 “英伟达时刻” 可能已经到来</h2>
<p>英伟达与台积电之间的估值差异表明了后者在更广泛的芯片市场中的看法。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d0ef808d5e9dc77b4a45d71e067bca97.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d0ef808d5e9dc77b4a45d71e067bca97.png"/></p>
<p>TSMC 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来自 YCharts；市盈率 = 价格与收益之比。</p>
<p>像英伟达和 AMD 这样的公司在很大程度上依赖于台积电的代工和制造服务，这些服务本质上是芯片行业的支柱。尽管华尔街的一些人会认为英伟达凭借其芯片和软件的双重优势拥有技术护城河，但我认为台积电拥有一个被低估的护城河，使其在芯片行业中相较于同行具有更广泛的曝光度。</p>
<p>在未来五年中，随着企业寻求超越当前的云计算、网络安全、企业软件等市场，我认为 AI 开发的应用场景将会增加。</p>
<p>自动驾驶和量子计算等新兴应用将进一步推动对 GPU 和数据中心容量的需求。因此，台积电可能正处于一个 “英伟达时刻” 的边缘，迎来持续的爆炸性增长。</p>
<p>台积电的前瞻性市盈率（P/E）为 25，使其在与英伟达（前瞻性市盈率为 40）相比时处于独特的位置，具有相当大的扩展潜力，因为 AI 的基础设施篇章仍在继续书写。</p>
<p>我认为台积电的估值将在未来几年内越来越与公司的增长相一致，因此我预测到 2030 年该股票将超过英伟达。</p>

台积电

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>一项预测表明，到 2030 年，台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）将超过英伟达（Nvidia）的表现。尽管英伟达经历了显著增长，但 TSMC 在人工智能基础设施市场中占据关键地位，受益于对人工智能硬件日益增长的投资。TSMC 在芯片市场的中立角色，加上其市盈率低于英伟达，表明其有潜在的显著增长空间。随着人工智能应用的扩展，预计 TSMC 的估值将与其增长更加紧密地对齐，从而在未来几年内实现优于英伟达的表现</p>

<p>When ChatGPT was released to the broader public on Nov. 30, 2022, <strong>Nvidia</strong> had a market capitalization of just $345 billion. As of the closing bell on July 25, 2025, its market cap had eclipsed $4.2 trillion, making it the most valuable company in the world -- by a pretty wide margin, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当 ChatGPT 于 2022 年 11 月 30 日向更广泛的公众发布时，<strong>英伟达</strong> 的市值仅为 3450 亿美元。截至 2025 年 7 月 25 日收盘，其市值已超过 4.2 万亿美元，使其成为全球最有价值的公司，且差距相当大。</p>
</div><p>Given these historic gains, it's not entirely surprising that for many growth investors, the artificial intelligence (AI) movement revolves around Nvidia. At this point, the company is basically seen as a barometer measuring the overall health of the entire AI sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于这些历史性的增长，对于许多成长型投资者来说，人工智能（AI）运动围绕着英伟达展开并不令人惊讶。此时，该公司基本上被视为衡量整个 AI 领域整体健康状况的晴雨表。</p>
</div><p>It's hard to bet against Nvidia, but I do see another stock in the semiconductor realm that appears better positioned for long-terms gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很难对英伟达下注，但我确实看到半导体领域中还有另一只股票似乎在长期增长方面更具优势。</p>
</div><p>Let's explore what makes <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 0.66%) such a compelling opportunity in the chip space right now, and the catalysts at play that could fuel returns superior to Nvidia's over the next several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们探讨一下为什么 <strong>台积电</strong>（TSM 0.66%）在当前芯片领域是一个如此引人注目的机会，以及可能推动其回报超过英伟达的催化因素。</p>
</div><h2>The AI infrastructure wave is just starting</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AI 基础设施浪潮刚刚开始</h2>
</div><p>I like to think of the AI narrative as a story. For the last few years, the biggest chapter revolved around advanced chipsets called graphics processing units (GPUs), which are used across a variety of generative AI applications. These include building large language models (LLMs), machine learning, robotics, self-driving cars, and more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我喜欢将 AI 叙事视为一个故事。在过去的几年中，最大的篇章围绕着被称为图形处理单元（GPU）的先进芯片组展开，这些芯片组被广泛应用于各种生成性 AI 应用中。这些应用包括构建大型语言模型（LLM）、机器学习、机器人技术、自动驾驶汽车等。</p>
</div><p>These various applications are only now beginning to come into focus. The next big chapter in the AI storyline is how infrastructure is going to play a role in actually developing and scaling up these more advanced technologies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些不同的应用现在才开始逐渐显现。AI 故事中的下一个大篇章是基础设施将如何在实际开发和扩展这些更先进的技术中发挥作用。</p>
</div><p>Global management consulting firm McKinsey &amp; Company estimates that investments in AI infrastructure could reach $6.7 trillion over the next five years, with a good portion of that allocated toward hardware for data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球管理咨询公司麦肯锡公司估计，未来五年对 AI 基础设施的投资可能达到 6.7 万亿美元，其中相当一部分将用于数据中心的硬件。</p>
</div><p>Piggybacking off of this idea, consider that cloud hyperscalers <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, and <strong>Alphabet</strong>, along with their &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; peer <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, are expected to devote north of $330 billion on capital expenditures (capex) just this year. Much of this is going toward additional servers, chips, and networking equipment for accelerated AI data center expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于这一想法，考虑到云计算巨头 <strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>谷歌</strong>，以及它们的 “七大巨头” 同行 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>，预计仅在今年就将投入超过 3300 亿美元用于资本支出（capex）。其中大部分将用于额外的服务器、芯片和网络设备，以加速 AI 数据中心的扩展。</p>
</div><p>To me, the aggressive spending on capex from the world's largest businesses is a strong signal that the infrastructure wave in AI is beginning to take shape.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，全球最大企业在资本支出上的激进投资是 AI 基础设施浪潮开始成形的强烈信号。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjY1NDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ2ODI2NjE1MS0zLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F826541%2Fgettyimages-1468266151-3.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image Source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>This is great for Nvidia and even better for TSMC</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这对英伟达来说是个好消息，对台积电来说更是好消息</h2>
</div><p>Rising AI infrastructure investment is a great tailwind for Nvidia but also a source of growth for <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>, <strong>Broadcom</strong>, and many others.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不断增长的 AI 基础设施投资对英伟达来说是一个良好的顺风，但对 <strong>超微</strong>、<strong>博通</strong> 和许多其他公司来说也是一个增长来源。</p>
</div><p>Unlike AMD or Nvidia, though, growth for Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC for short) doesn't really hinge on the success of a particular product line. In other words, Nvidia and AMD are competing fiercely against one another to win AI workloads, which boils down to which of them can design the most powerful, energy efficient chips at an affordable price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，与 AMD 或英伟达不同，台积电（简称 TSMC）的增长并不真正依赖于某一特定产品线的成功。换句话说，英伟达和 AMD 正在激烈竞争，以赢得 AI 工作负载，这归结为它们谁能设计出最强大、最节能且价格合理的芯片。</p>
</div><p>The investment case around TSMC is that it could be seen as more of an agnostic player in the AI chip market because its foundry and fabrication services stand to benefit from broader, more secular tailwinds fueling AI infrastructure -- regardless of whose chips create the most demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>围绕台积电的投资案例在于，它可以被视为 AI 芯片市场中的一个更中立的参与者，因为其代工和制造服务将受益于推动 AI 基础设施的更广泛、更加世俗的顺风——无论是哪个公司的芯片创造了最多的需求。</p>
</div><p>Think of TSMC as the company actually making the picks and shovels that Nvidia, AMD, and other chip companies need to go out and sell while competing among one another.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以把台积电看作是实际制造出英伟达、AMD 和其他芯片公司所需的工具和设备的公司，这些公司需要在彼此之间竞争并进行销售。</p>
</div><h2>TSMC's &#34;Nvidia moment&#34; may be here</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>台积电的 “英伟达时刻” 可能已经到来</h2>
</div><p>The valuation disparity between Nvidia and TSMC says a couple of things about how the latter is viewed in the broader chip landscape.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达与台积电之间的估值差异表明了后者在更广泛的芯片市场中的看法。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d0ef808d5e9dc77b4a45d71e067bca97.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d0ef808d5e9dc77b4a45d71e067bca97.png"/></p>
<p>TSM PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts; PE = price to earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSMC 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来自 YCharts；市盈率 = 价格与收益之比。</p>
</div><p>Companies such as Nvidia and AMD rely heavily on TSMC's foundry and fabrication services, which are essentially the backbone of the chip industry. While some on Wall Street would argue that Nvidia has a technological moat thanks to its one-two punch of chips and software, I think that TSMC has an underappreciated moat that provides the company with broader exposure to the chip industry compared to its peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像英伟达和 AMD 这样的公司在很大程度上依赖于台积电的代工和制造服务，这些服务本质上是芯片行业的支柱。尽管华尔街的一些人会认为英伟达凭借其芯片和软件的双重优势拥有技术护城河，但我认为台积电拥有一个被低估的护城河，使其在芯片行业中相较于同行具有更广泛的曝光度。</p>
</div><p>Over the next five years, I think use cases of AI development increase as businesses seek to expand beyond their current markets in cloud computing, cybersecurity, enterprise software, among others.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在未来五年中，随着企业寻求超越当前的云计算、网络安全、企业软件等市场，我认为 AI 开发的应用场景将会增加。</p>
</div><p>Emerging applications such as autonomous driving and quantum computing will drive demand for GPUs and data center capacity even further. For this reason, TSMC may be on the verge of an &#34;Nvidia moment&#34; featuring prolonged, explosive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自动驾驶和量子计算等新兴应用将进一步推动对 GPU 和数据中心容量的需求。因此，台积电可能正处于一个 “英伟达时刻” 的边缘，迎来持续的爆炸性增长。</p>
</div><p>TSMC's modest forward price-to-earnings multiple (P/E) of 25 puts it in a unique position compared to Nvidia (with its forward P/E of 40) for considerable expansion as the infrastructure chapter of AI continues to be written.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电的前瞻性市盈率（P/E）为 25，使其在与英伟达（前瞻性市盈率为 40）相比时处于独特的位置，具有相当大的扩展潜力，因为 AI 的基础设施篇章仍在继续书写。</p>
</div><p>I think Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's valuation will increasingly become more congruent with the company's growth over the next several years, and so I predict that the stock will outperform Nvidia by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为台积电的估值将在未来几年内越来越与公司的增长相一致，因此我预测到 2030 年该股票将超过英伟达。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Will Outperform Nvidia by 2030

- Nvidia 市值从 2022 年的 3450 亿美元增至 2025 年的 4.2 万亿美元。  
- TSMC 被视为 AI 基础设施投资的受益者，预计将实现显著增长。  
- 未来几年，TSMC 的估值有望与其增长相匹配，可能超越 Nvidia。  

预测：这只人工智能（AI）股票将在 2030 年之前表现优于英伟达