<p><strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>（OPEN 0.98%），美国领先的即时购房公司，于 2020 年 12 月 21 日通过与一家特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）合并上市。其股票在首日开盘价为 31.47 美元，并于 2021 年 2 月 11 日创下 35.88 美元的历史最高价。</p>
<p>但今天，该股票的交易价格约为 2.50 美元。由于利率上升和其他宏观逆风，房地产市场降温，其股价暴跌超过 90%。让我们看看这只不受欢迎的房地产股票在利率下降时是否会反弹。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYxMjgvcGVyc29uLXBvaW50aW5nLXRvLWEtbW9kZWwtaG9tZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYxMjgvcGVyc29uLXBvaW50aW5nLXRvLWEtbW9kZWwtaG9tZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>最后一个主要的即时购房者</h2>
<p>作为即时购房者（或 iBuyer），Opendoor 利用其人工智能算法为房屋提供即时现金报价。它对这些房产进行修缮，并在自己的市场上重新上市。当利率较低且房地产市场火热时，这种简化的商业模式蓬勃发展。</p>
<p>然而，美联储在 2022 年和 2023 年的加息结束了疫情后的房地产繁荣，同时推高了购买和翻新这些房产的成本。这就是为什么 <strong>Zillow</strong> 和 <strong>Rocket</strong> 的 Redfin 在 2022 年关闭了其整合的 iBuying 平台。</p>
<p>但随着 Zillow 和 Redfin 的退出，Opendoor 成为唯一的主要 iBuyer。预计今年其收入将超过其最接近的竞争对手 <strong>Offerpad</strong> 的六倍。因此，如果利率下降，房地产市场回暖，规模经济发挥作用，其增长可能会再次加速。</p>
<h2>Opendoor 何时会达到拐点？</h2>
<p>在 2021 年，随着疫情缓解和新房销售激增，Opendoor 的收入和调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）飙升。不幸的是，利率上升迫使其在 2022 年和 2023 年减少购房。其调整后的 EBITDA 利润率再次转为负值，并且亏损加剧。</p>
<p>| 指标 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| 收入 | 80 亿美元 | 156 亿美元 | 69 亿美元 | 52 亿美元 |
| 收入增长 | 211% | 94% | (55%) | (26%) |
| 购房数量 | 36,908 | 34,962 | 11,246 | 14,684 |
| 调整后 EBITDA 利润率 | 0.7% | (1.1%) | (9%) | (2.8%) |
| 净亏损 | (6.62 亿美元) | (14 亿美元) | (2.75 亿美元) | (3.92 亿美元) |</p>
<p>数据来源：Opendoor。</p>
<p>但在 2024 年，随着美联储三次降息稳定了房地产市场，Opendoor 再次购入更多房屋。其调整后的 EBITDA 利润率也有所改善，因为它裁减了员工，降低了转售交易成本和佣金，并精简了其他支出。</p>
<p>在 2025 年第一季度，其收入同比仅下降 2%，达到 12 亿美元，购房数量上升 4%，达到 3,609 套。其调整后的 EBITDA 利润率也改善了 160 个基点，降至负 2.6%，净亏损从 1.09 亿美元缩减至 8500 万美元。</p>
<p>对于第二季度，它预计收入中点下降不到 1%，调整后的 EBITDA 利润率约为 1%。对于全年，分析师预计其收入将下降约 5%，至 49 亿美元，调整后的 EBITDA 利润率为负 0.7%。这种稳定表明，暴风雨的阴云终于散去。</p>
<h2>Opendoor 相对于其增长潜力是否被低估？</h2>
<p>四个催化剂可能将这种稳定转变为加速。首先，美联储预计今年至少再降息两次。这可能会吸引更多卖家和买家重返房地产市场。</p>
<p>其次，它正在与更多的房屋建筑商和房地产平台（包括 Zillow 和 Redfin）合作，以接触更多卖家。</p>
<p>第三，公司一直在升级其人工智能算法，以提高房屋估值和修缮估算的准确性和速度。</p>
<p>最后，它正在扩展 Opendoor Exclusives，这一新市场直接将买家与卖家通过其人工智能定价引擎匹配。这种资本轻型的方法，不需要 Opendoor 自己购买和翻新任何房屋，将帮助其在不增加债务的情况下产生更高利润的佣金。</p>
<p>对于 2026 年，分析师预计收入将增长 18%，达到 58 亿美元，调整后的 EBITDA 利润率将接近盈亏平衡水平。以 30.6 亿美元的企业价值来看，其市盈率仍然低于明年销售额的 1 倍，显得被低估。</p>
<p>Opendoor 的股票在过去一个月已经上涨约 370%。一场新的迷因股票反弹，来自对其成为 “下一个 <strong>Carvana</strong>” 的对冲基金经理的病毒式评论，以及关于反向股票拆分的猜测，重新吸引了多头。但如果你期待其增长再次加速，现在买入其波动的股票也不算太晚。</p>

OPEN

<p>Opendoor Technologies 的股票从峰值下跌超过 90%，目前交易价格约为 2.50 美元，主要受到利率上升对房地产市场的影响。尽管面临挑战，Opendoor 仍然是领先的 iBuyer，预计将产生显著高于竞争对手的收入。分析师预测 2024 年将实现稳定，并可能出现增长催化剂，包括预期的美联储降息和与房屋建筑商的合作。最近该股票上涨了 370%，这表明随着公司改善其人工智能算法并扩展市场，投资者的兴趣重新回升</p>

<p><strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>(OPEN 0.98%), the leading instant buyer of homes in America, went public on Dec. 21, 2020, by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). Its stock opened at $31.47 on its first day, and it eventually closed at a record high of $35.88 on Feb. 11, 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>（OPEN 0.98%），美国领先的即时购房公司，于 2020 年 12 月 21 日通过与一家特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）合并上市。其股票在首日开盘价为 31.47 美元，并于 2021 年 2 月 11 日创下 35.88 美元的历史最高价。</p>
</div><p>But today, the stock trades at about $2.50 a share. It plummeted more than 90% as rising interest rates and other macro headwinds chilled the housing market. Let's see if this out-of-favor real estate stock might bounce back as interest rates decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但今天，该股票的交易价格约为 2.50 美元。由于利率上升和其他宏观逆风，房地产市场降温，其股价暴跌超过 90%。让我们看看这只不受欢迎的房地产股票在利率下降时是否会反弹。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYxMjgvcGVyc29uLXBvaW50aW5nLXRvLWEtbW9kZWwtaG9tZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F826128%2Fperson-pointing-to-a-model-home.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The last major iBuyer standing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最后一个主要的即时购房者</h2>
</div><p>As an instant buyer (or iBuyer), Opendoor uses its AI algorithms to make instant cash offers for homes. It fixes up those properties and relists them on its own marketplace. That streamlined business model flourished when interest rates were low and the housing market was hot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为即时购房者（或 iBuyer），Opendoor 利用其人工智能算法为房屋提供即时现金报价。它对这些房产进行修缮，并在自己的市场上重新上市。当利率较低且房地产市场火热时，这种简化的商业模式蓬勃发展。</p>
</div><p>However, the Fed's rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 ended the post-pandemic housing boom while driving up the costs of buying and renovating those properties. That's why <strong>Zillow</strong> and <strong>Rocket</strong>'s Redfin both shut down their integrated iBuying platforms in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，美联储在 2022 年和 2023 年的加息结束了疫情后的房地产繁荣，同时推高了购买和翻新这些房产的成本。这就是为什么 <strong>Zillow</strong> 和 <strong>Rocket</strong> 的 Redfin 在 2022 年关闭了其整合的 iBuying 平台。</p>
</div><p>But with Zillow and Redfin out of the picture, Opendoor is the one big major iBuyer standing. It's expected to generate more than six times as much revenue as its closest competitor, <strong>Offerpad</strong>, this year. So if interest rates decline, the housing market warms up, and economies of scale kick in, its growth could accelerate again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着 Zillow 和 Redfin 的退出，Opendoor 成为唯一的主要 iBuyer。预计今年其收入将超过其最接近的竞争对手 <strong>Offerpad</strong> 的六倍。因此，如果利率下降，房地产市场回暖，规模经济发挥作用，其增长可能会再次加速。</p>
</div><h2>When will Opendoor reach an inflection point?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Opendoor 何时会达到拐点？</h2>
</div><p>In 2021, Opendoor's revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) skyrocketed as the pandemic eased and sales of new homes surged. Unfortunately, rising rates forced it to reduce its home purchases in 2022 and 2023. Its adjusted EBITDA margins turned red again, and it racked up more losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2021 年，随着疫情缓解和新房销售激增，Opendoor 的收入和调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）飙升。不幸的是，利率上升迫使其在 2022 年和 2023 年减少购房。其调整后的 EBITDA 利润率再次转为负值，并且亏损加剧。</p>
</div><p>| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Revenue | $8 billion | $15.6 billion | $6.9 billion | $5.2 billion |
| Revenue growth | 211% | 94% | (55%) | (26%) |
| Homes bought | 36,908 | 34,962 | 11,246 | 14,684 |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 0.7% | (1.1%) | (9%) | (2.8%) |
| Net loss | ($662 million) | ($1.4 billion) | ($275 million) | ($392 million) |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>| 指标 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| 收入 | 80 亿美元 | 156 亿美元 | 69 亿美元 | 52 亿美元 |
| 收入增长 | 211% | 94% | (55%) | (26%) |
| 购房数量 | 36,908 | 34,962 | 11,246 | 14,684 |
| 调整后 EBITDA 利润率 | 0.7% | (1.1%) | (9%) | (2.8%) |
| 净亏损 | (6.62 亿美元) | (14 亿美元) | (2.75 亿美元) | (3.92 亿美元) |</p>
</div><p>Data source: Opendoor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：Opendoor。</p>
</div><p>But in 2024, Opendoor bought more homes again as the Fed's three interest rate cuts stabilized the housing market. Its adjusted EBITDA margin also improved as it pruned its workforce, reduced its resale transaction costs and commissions, and streamlined its other spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在 2024 年，随着美联储三次降息稳定了房地产市场，Opendoor 再次购入更多房屋。其调整后的 EBITDA 利润率也有所改善，因为它裁减了员工，降低了转售交易成本和佣金，并精简了其他支出。</p>
</div><p>In the first quarter of 2025, its revenue only dipped 2% year over year to $1.2 billion, and its home purchases rose 4% to 3,609 units. Its adjusted EBITDA margin also improved 160 basis points to negative 2.6% as it narrowed its net loss from $109 million to $85 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年第一季度，其收入同比仅下降 2%，达到 12 亿美元，购房数量上升 4%，达到 3,609 套。其调整后的 EBITDA 利润率也改善了 160 个基点，降至负 2.6%，净亏损从 1.09 亿美元缩减至 8500 万美元。</p>
</div><p>For the second quarter, it expects its revenue to decline less than 1% at the midpoint with a positive adjusted EBITDA margin of about 1%. For the full year, analysts expect its revenue to decline about 5% to $4.9 billion with an adjusted EBITDA margin of negative 0.7%. That stabilization indicates the storm clouds are finally dissipating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于第二季度，它预计收入中点下降不到 1%，调整后的 EBITDA 利润率约为 1%。对于全年，分析师预计其收入将下降约 5%，至 49 亿美元，调整后的 EBITDA 利润率为负 0.7%。这种稳定表明，暴风雨的阴云终于散去。</p>
</div><h2>Does Opendoor look undervalued relative to its growth potential?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Opendoor 相对于其增长潜力是否被低估？</h2>
</div><p>Four catalysts could turn that stabilization into an acceleration. First, the Fed is expected to reduce its rates at least two more times this year. That could drive more sellers and buyers back to the housing market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>四个催化剂可能将这种稳定转变为加速。首先，美联储预计今年至少再降息两次。这可能会吸引更多卖家和买家重返房地产市场。</p>
</div><p>Second, it's partnering with more homebuilders and real estate platforms (including Zillow and Redfin) to reach more sellers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，它正在与更多的房屋建筑商和房地产平台（包括 Zillow 和 Redfin）合作，以接触更多卖家。</p>
</div><p>Third, the company has been upgrading its own AI algorithms to improve the accuracy and speed of its home valuations and repair estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三，公司一直在升级其人工智能算法，以提高房屋估值和修缮估算的准确性和速度。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, it's expanding Opendoor Exclusives, its new marketplace, which directly matches buyers to sellers with its AI pricing engine. That capital-light approach, which doesn't require Opendoor to buy and renovate any houses on its own, would help it generate higher-margin commissions without increasing its debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，它正在扩展 Opendoor Exclusives，这一新市场直接将买家与卖家通过其人工智能定价引擎匹配。这种资本轻型的方法，不需要 Opendoor 自己购买和翻新任何房屋，将帮助其在不增加债务的情况下产生更高利润的佣金。</p>
</div><p>For 2026, analysts expect revenue to rise 18% to $5.8 billion as its adjusted EBITDA margin rises to nearly break-even levels. With an enterprise value of $3.06 billion, it still looks undervalued at a multiple of less than 1 next year's sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 2026 年，分析师预计收入将增长 18%，达到 58 亿美元，调整后的 EBITDA 利润率将接近盈亏平衡水平。以 30.6 亿美元的企业价值来看，其市盈率仍然低于明年销售额的 1 倍，显得被低估。</p>
</div><p>Opendoor's stock already surged about 370% over the past month. A new meme stock rally, viral comments from a hedge fund manager about it becoming the &#34;next <strong>Carvana</strong>,&#34; and speculation of a reverse stock split brought back the bulls. But if you expect its growth to accelerate again, it isn't too late to buy its volatile stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Opendoor 的股票在过去一个月已经上涨约 370%。一场新的迷因股票反弹，来自对其成为 “下一个 <strong>Carvana</strong>” 的对冲基金经理的病毒式评论，以及关于反向股票拆分的猜测，重新吸引了多头。但如果你期待其增长再次加速，现在买入其波动的股票也不算太晚。</p>
</div>

Down 90% From Its High, Is There Still Hope for Opendoor Stock?

- Opendoor Technologies 股票自 2020 年上市以来，现价约为 $2.50，跌幅超 90%。  
- 由于利率上升，Opendoor 减少购房，2023 年净亏损达 $275 百万。  
- 预计 2024 年收入将下降 5%，但若利率降低，市场回暖，增长有望加速。  

Opendoor 股票从高点下跌 90%，是否仍有希望？