<p>帮助总统 <strong>唐纳德·特朗普</strong> 施压美联储的通胀平静期已经结束，6 月份的数据表明关税最终影响了消费者价格——美联储主席 <strong>杰罗姆·鲍威尔</strong> 坚持立场是明智的。</p>
<p>美联储最密切关注的通胀指标——个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数，同比上涨至 2.6%，高于 5 月份的 2.3% 并超出预期的 2.5%。这是自 2 月份以来的最高年率。</p>
<p>剔除食品和能源的核心 PCE 保持在 2.8%，与上调后的 5 月份读数持平，且高于 2.7% 的预测，突显了潜在通胀的持续性。</p>
<p>按月计算，整体和核心通胀均上涨 0.3%，较上个月的 0.2% 有所加速。</p>
<p>这些连续的增长表明价格压力的广泛性，与今年早些时候施加的关税的滞后影响一致。</p>
<h3><strong>消费者支出依然强劲，劳动力市场没有压力迹象</strong></h3>
<p>尽管通胀加剧，但尚无需求减弱的证据。</p>
<p>个人支出环比增长 0.3%，高于 5 月份的持平读数，尽管略低于 0.4% 的预期。</p>
<p>个人收入增长 0.3%，从 5 月份的 0.4% 下降中反弹，超出 0.2% 的预期，表明家庭财务状况依然稳健。</p>
<p>截至 7 月 26 日当周，首次申请失业救济人数为 218,000，基本与前一周持平，且好于预期的 224,000。持续申请失业救济人数也意外下降至 194.6 万，低于 196 万的预测。</p>
<p>这些数据强化了鲍威尔的论点，即 “适度限制” 的政策立场仍然合适——尽管白宫施加了持续压力，美联储没有提前承诺在 9 月份降息是正确的。</p>
<p>目前，美联储有喘息的空间。但随着下一轮就业和通胀数据的临近，放松政策或维持现状的理由将变得更加复杂。</p>
<p>在周四的 PCE 通胀报告超出预期后，市场现在仅将 9 月份降息的可能性评估为 39%——较美联储周三的决定前的 65% 大幅下降。</p>
<p>美国美元指数——由 <strong>Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF</strong> UUP 追踪——迄今已连续五个交易日上涨。今天再涨将延续自 2023 年 8 月以来最长的连胜纪录。</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>鲍威尔对 9 月份降息按下刹车——特朗普引发金属市场崩盘</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>照片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

<p>帮助特朗普总统的通胀平静期已经结束，6 月份的个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数同比上涨至 2.6%，超出预期。核心 PCE 保持在 2.8% 的稳定水平。尽管通胀上升，消费者支出仍增加了 0.3%，个人收入也上升了 0.3%。失业救济申请保持稳定，支持美联储主席鲍威尔反对 9 月份降息的立场。市场目前预计降息的可能性为 39%，低于之前的 65%。美元指数连续五个交易日上涨，显示出市场对通胀数据的反应</p>

<p>The inflation lull that helped President <strong>Donald Trump</strong> keep pressure on the Federal Reserve is over as June's data show the tariffs are finally hitting consumer prices—and Fed Chair <strong>Jerome Powell</strong> was wise to hold his ground.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>帮助总统 <strong>唐纳德·特朗普</strong> 施压美联储的通胀平静期已经结束，6 月份的数据表明关税最终影响了消费者价格——美联储主席 <strong>杰罗姆·鲍威尔</strong> 坚持立场是明智的。</p>
</div><p>The most closely watched inflation gauge by the central bank, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, jumped to 2.6% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in May and topping expectations of 2.5%. That's the highest annual rate since February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储最密切关注的通胀指标——个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数，同比上涨至 2.6%，高于 5 月份的 2.3% 并超出预期的 2.5%。这是自 2 月份以来的最高年率。</p>
</div><p>Core PCE, which strips out food and energy and directly informs the Fed's rate decisions, held firm at 2.8%, unchanged from the upwardly revised May reading and above forecasts of 2.7%, underscoring the persistence of underlying inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剔除食品和能源的核心 PCE 保持在 2.8%，与上调后的 5 月份读数持平，且高于 2.7% 的预测，突显了潜在通胀的持续性。</p>
</div><p>On a monthly basis, both headline and core inflation rose 0.3%, accelerating from 0.2% the prior month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>按月计算，整体和核心通胀均上涨 0.3%，较上个月的 0.2% 有所加速。</p>
</div><p>These sequential increases suggest a broadening in price pressures, consistent with the delayed impact of tariffs imposed earlier this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些连续的增长表明价格压力的广泛性，与今年早些时候施加的关税的滞后影响一致。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Consumer Spending Still Strong, No Signs Of Stress From Labor Market</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>消费者支出依然强劲，劳动力市场没有压力迹象</strong></h3>
</div><p>Despite hotter inflation, there's no evidence yet of weakening demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管通胀加剧，但尚无需求减弱的证据。</p>
</div><p>Personal spending climbed 0.3% month-over-month, up from a flat reading in May, though slightly below the 0.4% forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>个人支出环比增长 0.3%，高于 5 月份的持平读数，尽管略低于 0.4% 的预期。</p>
</div><p>Personal income increased 0.3%, bouncing back from a 0.4% drop in May and beating expectations of a 0.2% gain, indicating that households remain in solid financial shape.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>个人收入增长 0.3%，从 5 月份的 0.4% 下降中反弹，超出 0.2% 的预期，表明家庭财务状况依然稳健。</p>
</div><p>Weekly jobless claims came in at 218,000 for the week ending July 26, basically unchanged from the previous week and better than the 224,000 expected. Continuing claims also surprised to the downside at 1.946 million, below the forecast of 1.96 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 7 月 26 日当周，首次申请失业救济人数为 218,000，基本与前一周持平，且好于预期的 224,000。持续申请失业救济人数也意外下降至 194.6 万，低于 196 万的预测。</p>
</div><p>The data reinforces Powell's argument that a &#34;modestly restrictive&#34; policy stance remains appropriate—and that the Fed was right not to pre-commit to a rate cut in September, despite relentless pressure from the White House.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些数据强化了鲍威尔的论点，即 “适度限制” 的政策立场仍然合适——尽管白宫施加了持续压力，美联储没有提前承诺在 9 月份降息是正确的。</p>
</div><p>For now, the Federal Reserve has room to breathe. But as the next rounds of jobs and inflation data approach, the case for easing—or staying put—will only grow more complex.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，美联储有喘息的空间。但随着下一轮就业和通胀数据的临近，放松政策或维持现状的理由将变得更加复杂。</p>
</div><p>Following Thursday's hotter-than-expected PCE inflation report, markets now assign just a 39% chance of a September rate cut—down sharply from 65% before the Fed's decision on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周四的 PCE 通胀报告超出预期后，市场现在仅将 9 月份降息的可能性评估为 39%——较美联储周三的决定前的 65% 大幅下降。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. dollar index – as tracked by the <strong>Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF</strong> UUP – has rallied for five straight sessions thus far. Another gain today would extend the longest winning streak since August 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国美元指数——由 <strong>Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF</strong> UUP 追踪——迄今已连续五个交易日上涨。今天再涨将延续自 2023 年 8 月以来最长的连胜纪录。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Powell Puts Breaks On September Rate Cut—And Trump Triggers A Metal Market Crash</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>鲍威尔对 9 月份降息按下刹车——特朗普引发金属市场崩盘</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Photo: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

特朗普的通胀蜜月期已经结束——鲍威尔的耐心终于得到了回报