<p>中国股市整体表现强劲，尤其是 <strong>阿里巴巴</strong>(BABA -2.48%) 在今年开局火热。到 2025 年 3 月中旬，该国电商先锋的股价上涨了 75%。尽管近期整体市场反弹，但阿里巴巴的股价仍比寒冬时的高点低 19%。</p>
<p>回调的原因有一些合理的解释，我会很快讨论这些。这并不意味着现在不是购买阿里巴巴的好时机，仿佛明天就没有一样。让我们深入探讨一下我为何是阿里巴巴的股东，以及如果你还没有加入我，为什么我认为你可能想要考虑加入。</p>
<h2>1. 阿里巴巴的股票便宜</h2>
<p>阿里巴巴在最新一个季度出现了罕见的盈利失利，分析师们也在下调他们的利润预期。这并不好，但这并不意味着现在的价值不具吸引力。</p>
<p>阿里巴巴的交易价格为调整后盈利的 16 倍。与美国的电商领军企业相比，这个价格显得非常划算。展望 4 月份开始的新财年，这个倍数降至不到 14 倍。为什么不更低呢？如果我们展望下一个财年，阿里巴巴的前瞻性调整后盈利倍数仅为 11.5 倍。</p>
<p>这些低市盈率实际上是被高估的。阿里巴巴拥有近 600 亿美元的现金和短期投资，几乎是其长期债务的两倍。阿里巴巴强劲的净现金头寸使其企业价值低于市值。如果以企业价值作为分子，明年的利润倍数将降至 11 以下。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc2NzMvZ2V0dHljaGluZXNlZ2FtZXIuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="369" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc2NzMvZ2V0dHljaGluZXNlZ2FtZXIuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>2. 增长值得市场溢价</h2>
<p>阿里巴巴吸引人的基于盈利的估值令人惊讶的是，它如何克服了其旗舰电商平台之外的亏损。阿里巴巴并不害怕在短期内不会带来回报的投资。它关注一些不盈利的业务，包括流媒体内容、国际业务、在竞争激烈的第三方食品配送应用中的不断增长的存在，以及人工智能（AI），当然还有其他领域。</p>
<p>阿里巴巴并没有把所有的鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里。其不断发展的好处在于，收入年复一年持续增长。尽管业务放缓，但过去三个财年的单数字收入增长是在连续 10 年实现双位数收入增长之后。分析师预计 2026 财年的收入增长将加速，明年将再次提速。</p>
<h2>3. 阿里巴巴认为其股票便宜</h2>
<p>一些投资者并不喜欢股票回购，但通常这是因为公司处于下滑状态，缺乏增长想法。阿里巴巴并不符合这种衰退的特征。它手头有足够的现金来支持其在新兴业务中的长期投资。除了适度的分红外，阿里巴巴在过去两年中每个季度都回购股票。</p>
<p>回购并没有抑制股价。过去一年，阿里巴巴的股票上涨了 53%。在过去两年中减少了 9% 的流通股带来了好处。这提高了每股收益，使股东拥有公司更大的一部分。</p>
<p>时间站在它这边。8 月份，关税战愈演愈烈，但阿里巴巴 85% 的业务是在中国境内进行的。这是一个相对避风港的投资，能够抵御贸易争端带来的波动。当然，其在美国销售的 AliExpress 电商平台会受到影响。但在其本土市场，阿里巴巴依然是一股强大的力量。它拥有淘宝、天猫和快速增长的云智能业务。尽管许多更大胆的投资仍在等待时机，但股价依然强劲。很容易理解为什么阿里巴巴会继续进行这些股票回购。你可能也想考虑跟随这一做法。</p>

阿里巴巴-W

阿里巴巴

2 倍做多阿里巴巴 ETF - KraneShares

BABO

2 倍做多 BABA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>尽管近期出现回调，阿里巴巴的股票仍被视为一个有吸引力的买入机会，其市盈率与美国电子商务领军企业相比处于较低水平。该公司拥有强劲的现金状况，现金和短期投资接近 600 亿美元。分析师预测，阿里巴巴在 2026 财年的收入增长将加速，并且该公司一直积极回购股票，在过去两年中减少了 9% 的流通股。阿里巴巴 85% 的业务在中国，尽管面临贸易紧张局势，仍然保持韧性，使其成为一个有吸引力的投资机会</p>

<p>Chinese stocks in general and <strong>Alibaba</strong>(BABA -2.48%) in particular got off to scorching starts this year. Shares of the country's e-commerce pioneer were trading 75% higher in 2025 at its mid-March high. The general market has rallied in recent months, but Alibaba remains 19% below that wintry peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国股市整体表现强劲，尤其是 <strong>阿里巴巴</strong>(BABA -2.48%) 在今年开局火热。到 2025 年 3 月中旬，该国电商先锋的股价上涨了 75%。尽管近期整体市场反弹，但阿里巴巴的股价仍比寒冬时的高点低 19%。</p>
</div><p>There are some good reasons for the pullback, and I'll tackle this shortly. It doesn't mean that it's not a good time to buy Alibaba like there's no tomorrow. Let's dive into a few of the reasons why I'm a shareholder of Alibaba, and why I think you might want to join me if you aren't there already.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回调的原因有一些合理的解释，我会很快讨论这些。这并不意味着现在不是购买阿里巴巴的好时机，仿佛明天就没有一样。让我们深入探讨一下我为何是阿里巴巴的股东，以及如果你还没有加入我，为什么我认为你可能想要考虑加入。</p>
</div><h2>1. Alibaba shares are cheap</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 阿里巴巴的股票便宜</h2>
</div><p>Alibaba is coming off a rare earnings miss in its latest quarter, and analysts have been paring back their profit targets. This isn't a good look, but it doesn't mean that it isn't a compelling value right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴在最新一个季度出现了罕见的盈利失利，分析师们也在下调他们的利润预期。这并不好，但这并不意味着现在的价值不具吸引力。</p>
</div><p>Alibaba is trading for 16 times trailing adjusted earnings. Stack that up against stateside e-tail leaders, and the bargain is clear. Look out to the new fiscal year that started in April, and that multiple drops to less than 14. Why stop there? Alibaba is fetching a forward adjusted earnings multiple of just 11.5 if we look out to the next fiscal year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴的交易价格为调整后盈利的 16 倍。与美国的电商领军企业相比，这个价格显得非常划算。展望 4 月份开始的新财年，这个倍数降至不到 14 倍。为什么不更低呢？如果我们展望下一个财年，阿里巴巴的前瞻性调整后盈利倍数仅为 11.5 倍。</p>
</div><p>These low P/E ratios are actually inflated. Alibaba has nearly $60 billion in cash and short-term investments, double its long-term debt. Alibaba's strong net-cash position translates into an enterprise value that is lower than its market cap. Next year's profit multiple drops below 11 if you're rolling with its enterprise value as the numerator.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些低市盈率实际上是被高估的。阿里巴巴拥有近 600 亿美元的现金和短期投资，几乎是其长期债务的两倍。阿里巴巴强劲的净现金头寸使其企业价值低于市值。如果以企业价值作为分子，明年的利润倍数将降至 11 以下。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc2NzMvZ2V0dHljaGluZXNlZ2FtZXIuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F827673%2Fgettychinesegamer.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>2. Growth deserves a market premium</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 增长值得市场溢价</h2>
</div><p>The surprising thing about Alibaba's attractive earnings-based valuation is how it overcomes losses outside of its flagship e-commerce platforms. Alibaba isn't afraid to place bets that don't pay off in the near term. It watches over some unprofitable businesses including streaming content, international operations, a growing presence in the cutthroat realm of third-party food delivery apps, and artificial intelligence (AI), of course.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴吸引人的基于盈利的估值令人惊讶的是，它如何克服了其旗舰电商平台之外的亏损。阿里巴巴并不害怕在短期内不会带来回报的投资。它关注一些不盈利的业务，包括流媒体内容、国际业务、在竞争激烈的第三方食品配送应用中的不断增长的存在，以及人工智能（AI），当然还有其他领域。</p>
</div><p>Alibaba doesn't keep all of its eggs in the same basket. The benefit of its perpetual evolution is that its top line keeps growing year after year. Business has slowed, but the last three fiscal years of single-digit revenue gains followed 10 consecutive years of double-digit top-line gains. Analysts see revenue growth accelerating in fiscal 2026, picking up the pace yet again next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴并没有把所有的鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里。其不断发展的好处在于，收入年复一年持续增长。尽管业务放缓，但过去三个财年的单数字收入增长是在连续 10 年实现双位数收入增长之后。分析师预计 2026 财年的收入增长将加速，明年将再次提速。</p>
</div><h2>3. Alibaba thinks its stock is cheap</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 阿里巴巴认为其股票便宜</h2>
</div><p>Some investors aren't fans of share buybacks, but that's usually when it's the handiwork of a slumping company that's fresh out of growth ideas. Alibaba doesn't fit that fading profile. It's just flush with more than enough cash to fund its long-term wagers in emerging businesses. Beyond its modest dividend, Alibaba has purchased shares every single quarter for at least the last two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些投资者并不喜欢股票回购，但通常这是因为公司处于下滑状态，缺乏增长想法。阿里巴巴并不符合这种衰退的特征。它手头有足够的现金来支持其在新兴业务中的长期投资。除了适度的分红外，阿里巴巴在过去两年中每个季度都回购股票。</p>
</div><p>The buybacks haven't held the shares back. Alibaba stock is up 53% over the past year. Reducing its outstanding shares by 9% over the past two years has its benefits. It improves earnings on a per-share basis. It gives a shareholder a slightly larger chunk of the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回购并没有抑制股价。过去一年，阿里巴巴的股票上涨了 53%。在过去两年中减少了 9% 的流通股带来了好处。这提高了每股收益，使股东拥有公司更大的一部分。</p>
</div><p>Time is on its side. August finds the tariff war heating up, but 85% of Alibaba's business takes place within China itself. It's one of the more sheltered investments from the volatility behind the trade tussle. Sure, its U.S.-selling AliExpress e-commerce platform will take a hit. This is still a juggernaut on its home turf. It has Taobao, Tmall, and a rapidly growing cloud intelligence business. The stock is on a tear, even with many of its more brazen bets still waiting for their moment to shine. It's easy to see why Alibaba keeps eating its own cooking with these share repurchases. You might want to consider following suit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>时间站在它这边。8 月份，关税战愈演愈烈，但阿里巴巴 85% 的业务是在中国境内进行的。这是一个相对避风港的投资，能够抵御贸易争端带来的波动。当然，其在美国销售的 AliExpress 电商平台会受到影响。但在其本土市场，阿里巴巴依然是一股强大的力量。它拥有淘宝、天猫和快速增长的云智能业务。尽管许多更大胆的投资仍在等待时机，但股价依然强劲。很容易理解为什么阿里巴巴会继续进行这些股票回购。你可能也想考虑跟随这一做法。</p>
</div>

3 Reasons to Buy Alibaba Stock Like There's No Tomorrow

- 阿里巴巴股价在 2025 年中期上涨 75%，但目前仍低于高点 19%。  
- 阿里巴巴的市盈率低于 14，现金和短期投资接近 600 亿美元。  
- 公司持续回购股票，过去两年减少 9% 的流通股，提高每股收益。  

购买阿里巴巴股票的三个理由：抓住当下机遇