<p>在过去几年的人工智能（AI）热潮中，<strong>Nvidia</strong> 受到了很多关注（在许多情况下是有道理的），但许多人会惊讶地发现，其股票并不是最大的受益者。最大的受益者是 <strong>Palantir</strong>（PLTR -0.83%），其股价上涨超过 2300%——是 Nvidia 在此期间涨幅的两倍多。</p>
<p>Palantir 是一家软件公司，构建数据和分析工具，帮助政府和企业从大型复杂数据集中获取洞察。理论上听起来相对简单，但在 Palantir 所做的规模上，这相当困难。投资者似乎已经注意到了这一点。</p>
<p>随着 Palantir 的股价徘徊在历史高点附近，人们自然会想知道是否该在它仍在上涨时跳上过山车，还是准备迎接现实的考验，因为投资者开始质疑其估值是否合理。在这种情况下，我认为更接近后者。</p>
<h2>Palantir 发布了稳健的财报</h2>
<p>让我们先从一些积极的消息开始，那就是 Palantir 最近的财报。Palantir 主要以与美国政府机构（如中央情报局和国防部）的合作而闻名。这一直是它的主要业务，但其人工智能平台（AIP）对其商业业务的推动巨大。</p>
<p>在第一季度，Palantir 的美国政府收入同比增长 45%，达到 3.73 亿美元，而其美国商业收入同比增长 71%，达到 2.55 亿美元。其总收入为 8.84 亿美元（同比增长 39%），继续保持令人印象深刻的增长，过去五年收入增长超过 200%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0822a44b9ec0775ba25efdc6cf2ebdc8.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0822a44b9ec0775ba25efdc6cf2ebdc8.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR 收入（季度）数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>这一增长很大程度上归功于 Palantir 达成了多个六位数以上的大额交易。它达成了 139 笔至少 100 万美元的交易，51 笔至少 500 万美元的交易，31 笔至少 1000 万美元的交易，并且其客户总数同比增长 39%。</p>
<p>Palantir 预计其财年收入将在 38.9 亿至 39 亿美元之间，这将比 2024 年增长约 36%。</p>
<h2>难以忽视 Palantir 的高估值</h2>
<p>Palantir 最近的股价暴涨对持有该股的投资者来说是个好消息。然而，对于希望首次购买股票或增加现有持股的投资者来说，这并不是个好消息。简单来说，Palantir 的股票极其昂贵。</p>
<p>截至 7 月 29 日，Palantir 的股票交易价格是其未来收益的 270 倍。这对于任何行业的任何企业来说都很难辩解，但尤其是对于其主要业务（政府合同）并不以高增长著称且尚未显示其当前增长率可持续的企业来说，更是如此。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b854f646761e805a745eb3f56eb167b1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b854f646761e805a745eb3f56eb167b1.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR 市盈率（前瞻）数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>一些过去达到极高估值的知名软件公司——而且仍然远低于 Palantir 目前的估值——自那时以来表现不佳。<strong>Zoom Communications</strong>、<strong>Bill Holdings</strong> 和 <strong>Snowflake</strong> 曾在某个时刻以三位数的倍数交易，而现在分别比其峰值下跌了 86%、86% 和 45%。</p>
<p>这并不意味着 Palantir 会遭遇同样的命运，但它需要有历史性和前所未有的表现才能证明其当前的交易水平是合理的。不幸的是，我看不到这种情况的发生。</p>
<h2>投资者应如何看待 Palantir 的股票</h2>
<p>如果你相信 Palantir 的长期潜力，我建议你采用定投方式开始或继续购买股票。当你进行定投时，你决定一个愿意投资的金额，然后设定一个固定的投资计划，无论当时价格如何都进行投资。</p>
<p>例如，如果你有 1000 美元想投资于 Palantir，你可以决定每隔一个星期一投资 100 美元，或者每月的第一天投资 250 美元，或者任何适合你情况的方式。你设定的时间表并不如坚持执行和在波动中保持一致重要。</p>
<p>通过定投，你可以避免在股价大幅下跌前一次性投资的情况。Palantir 曾出现过股价在一天内下跌两位数百分比的情况，因此这并不是不切实际的——尤其是在其当前的高估值下。</p>

PLTR

<p>Palantir 的股票在人工智能热潮中飙升超过 2300%，表现优于 Nvidia。该公司报告了强劲的收益，美国政府收入同比增长 45%，商业收入同比增长 71%。然而，其股票的估值高达前瞻性收益的 270 倍，引发了对可持续性的担忧。建议投资者考虑采用定投策略，以降低潜在价格下跌带来的风险</p>

<p>Through the artificial intelligence (AI) boom over the past few years, <strong>Nvidia</strong> has gotten a lot of attention (rightfully so in many cases), but many would be surprised to see that its stock hasn't been the biggest beneficiary. That would be <strong>Palantir</strong>(PLTR -0.83%), which is up over 2,300% -- more than double Nvidia's gains in that span.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几年的人工智能（AI）热潮中，<strong>Nvidia</strong> 受到了很多关注（在许多情况下是有道理的），但许多人会惊讶地发现，其股票并不是最大的受益者。最大的受益者是 <strong>Palantir</strong>（PLTR -0.83%），其股价上涨超过 2300%——是 Nvidia 在此期间涨幅的两倍多。</p>
</div><p>Palantir is a software company that builds data and analytics tools that help governments and companies gather insights from large and complex datasets. It may sound relatively simple in theory, but it's fairly hard to do at the scale that Palantir does it. And investors have seemed to take notice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 是一家软件公司，构建数据和分析工具，帮助政府和企业从大型复杂数据集中获取洞察。理论上听起来相对简单，但在 Palantir 所做的规模上，这相当困难。投资者似乎已经注意到了这一点。</p>
</div><p>With Palantir's stock hovering near its all-time high, it's normal to wonder whether it's time to hop on the roller coaster while it's still on its way up, or brace for a reality check as investors begin to question if its valuation is warranted. In this case, I believe it's much closer to the latter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 Palantir 的股价徘徊在历史高点附近，人们自然会想知道是否该在它仍在上涨时跳上过山车，还是准备迎接现实的考验，因为投资者开始质疑其估值是否合理。在这种情况下，我认为更接近后者。</p>
</div><h2>Palantir is putting up solid earnings results</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir 发布了稳健的财报</h2>
</div><p>Let's start with some positive news, and that's Palantir's recent earnings. Palantir is mostly known for its work with U.S. government agencies like the CIA and the Department of Defense. That's been its bread and butter for a while, but its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) has been a huge boost to its commercial business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们先从一些积极的消息开始，那就是 Palantir 最近的财报。Palantir 主要以与美国政府机构（如中央情报局和国防部）的合作而闻名。这一直是它的主要业务，但其人工智能平台（AIP）对其商业业务的推动巨大。</p>
</div><p>In the first quarter, Palantir's U.S. government revenue grew 45% year over year to $373 million, and its U.S. commercial revenue grew 71% year over year to $255 million. Its $884 million in total revenue (up 39% year over year) continued its impressive growth, which has seen its revenue grow over 200% in the past five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第一季度，Palantir 的美国政府收入同比增长 45%，达到 3.73 亿美元，而其美国商业收入同比增长 71%，达到 2.55 亿美元。其总收入为 8.84 亿美元（同比增长 39%），继续保持令人印象深刻的增长，过去五年收入增长超过 200%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0822a44b9ec0775ba25efdc6cf2ebdc8.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0822a44b9ec0775ba25efdc6cf2ebdc8.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR 收入（季度）数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Much of this growth can be attributed to Palantir closing large six-figure-plus deals. It closed 139 deals of at least $1 million, 51 deals of at least $5 million, 31 deals of at least $10 million, and grew its total customers by 39% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一增长很大程度上归功于 Palantir 达成了多个六位数以上的大额交易。它达成了 139 笔至少 100 万美元的交易，51 笔至少 500 万美元的交易，31 笔至少 1000 万美元的交易，并且其客户总数同比增长 39%。</p>
</div><p>Palantir expects its fiscal year revenue to fall between $3.89 billion and $3.90 billion, which would be around a 36% increase from 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 预计其财年收入将在 38.9 亿至 39 亿美元之间，这将比 2024 年增长约 36%。</p>
</div><h2>It's hard to ignore Palantir's high valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>难以忽视 Palantir 的高估值</h2>
</div><p>Palantir's recent stock price explosion is great news for investors who've held the stock. However, it's not-so-good news for investors looking to acquire their first shares or add to their existing holdings. To put it lightly, Palantir's stock is extremely expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 最近的股价暴涨对持有该股的投资者来说是个好消息。然而，对于希望首次购买股票或增加现有持股的投资者来说，这并不是个好消息。简单来说，Palantir 的股票极其昂贵。</p>
</div><p>As of July 29, Palantir's stock is trading at an absurd 270 times its forward earnings. That's hard to justify for any business in any industry, but especially one whose main business (government contracts) isn't known for being high-growth and has yet to show its current growth rates are sustainable long-term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 7 月 29 日，Palantir 的股票交易价格是其未来收益的 270 倍。这对于任何行业的任何企业来说都很难辩解，但尤其是对于其主要业务（政府合同）并不以高增长著称且尚未显示其当前增长率可持续的企业来说，更是如此。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b854f646761e805a745eb3f56eb167b1.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b854f646761e805a745eb3f56eb167b1.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR 市盈率（前瞻）数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Notable past software companies that have reached extremely high valuations -- and still much less than what Palantir currently is -- haven't fared well since that peak. <strong>Zoom Communications</strong>, <strong>Bill Holdings</strong>, and <strong>Snowflake</strong> each traded at triple-digit multiples of their sales at one point, and they're now down 86%, 86%, and 45% from their peaks, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些过去达到极高估值的知名软件公司——而且仍然远低于 Palantir 目前的估值——自那时以来表现不佳。<strong>Zoom Communications</strong>、<strong>Bill Holdings</strong> 和 <strong>Snowflake</strong> 曾在某个时刻以三位数的倍数交易，而现在分别比其峰值下跌了 86%、86% 和 45%。</p>
</div><p>This doesn't mean Palantir will follow the same fate, but it would need to have a historical and unprecedented run to justify the levels it's currently trading at. And unfortunately, I don't see it happening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不意味着 Palantir 会遭遇同样的命运，但它需要有历史性和前所未有的表现才能证明其当前的交易水平是合理的。不幸的是，我看不到这种情况的发生。</p>
</div><h2>How investors should approach Palantir's stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者应如何看待 Palantir 的股票</h2>
</div><p>If you're a believer in Palantir's long-term potential, I would recommend dollar-cost averaging to begin or continue acquiring shares. When you dollar-cost average, you decide on an amount you're willing to invest in a stock and then put yourself on a set investing schedule, making the investments regardless of prices at that time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你相信 Palantir 的长期潜力，我建议你采用定投方式开始或继续购买股票。当你进行定投时，你决定一个愿意投资的金额，然后设定一个固定的投资计划，无论当时价格如何都进行投资。</p>
</div><p>For example, if you have $1,000 you want to invest in Palantir, you could decide to invest $100 every other Monday, $250 on the first of each month, or whatever works best with your situation. The schedule you put yourself on isn't as important as making sure you stick to it and stay consistent through ups and downs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，如果你有 1000 美元想投资于 Palantir，你可以决定每隔一个星期一投资 100 美元，或者每月的第一天投资 250 美元，或者任何适合你情况的方式。你设定的时间表并不如坚持执行和在波动中保持一致重要。</p>
</div><p>By dollar-cost averaging, you avoid a situation where you invest a lump sum right before a huge stock price drop happens. Palantir has had instances where its stock price dropped by double-digit percentages in a day, so it's not that far-fetched -- especially with its current stretched valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过定投，你可以避免在股价大幅下跌前一次性投资的情况。Palantir 曾出现过股价在一天内下跌两位数百分比的情况，因此这并不是不切实际的——尤其是在其当前的高估值下。</p>
</div>

Palantir at All-Time Highs: Buy Now or Brace for a Reality Check?

- Palantir 的股价在人工智能热潮中上涨超过 2300%。  
- 第一季度，Palantir 美国政府收入同比增长 45%，商业收入增长 71%。  
- 目前 Palantir 的市盈率高达 270 倍，投资者需谨慎。  

Palantir 股价创历史新高：是现在买入还是准备面对现实的考验？