<p>由于美国就业报告意外疲软，美联储在九月份降息的可能性激增，重新点燃了加密市场的看涨情绪，进入一个传统的波动交易季节。</p>
<p><strong>发生了什么：</strong> 根据截至 8 月 1 日的 Polymarket 数据，现在美联储在 9 月 17 日会议上降息 25 个基点的概率为 70%，相比几天前大幅上升。</p>
<p>与此同时，50 个基点降息的押注为 6.8%。</p>
<p>这发生在美国经济在 7 月份仅增加 73,000 个就业岗位，远低于共识预期的 110,000 个。</p>
<p>市场还受到 5 月和 6 月修正下调 258,000 个就业岗位的影响，这是自 2020 年 COVID-19 疫情爆发以来最严重的两个月降级。</p>
<p>失业率上升至 4.2%，而工资增长仍然强于预期，环比增长 0.3%，同比增长 3.9%。</p>
<p><strong>另请阅读：价值 1000 亿美元的比特币赌注：财政公司如何推动加密热潮</strong></p>
<p><strong>这很重要：</strong> 对于加密投资者来说，这些信号意义重大。</p>
<p>&#34;这绝对是一个游戏规则的改变，&#34; <strong>Greg Magadini</strong>，<strong>Amberdata</strong> 衍生品总监告诉 Benzinga。&#34;美联储一直有高利率维持较长时间的奢侈，因为就业市场保持强劲。这个叙述现在受到质疑。&#34;</p>
<p>Magadini 解释说，急剧的修正和疲弱的 7 月数据让市场感到意外，导致美元下跌，债券收益率下降。</p>
<p>&#34;这给美联储提供了降息的空间，而不显得屈服于政治压力，&#34;他说，指的是特朗普政府对美联储主席 <strong>Jerome Powell</strong> 的公开批评。</p>
<p>在与 Benzinga 的交谈中，区块链顾问和作者 <strong>Anndy Lian</strong> 表示，降息的可能性对加密货币有利。</p>
<p>&#34;较低的利率降低了持有无收益资产如 <strong>比特币</strong>BTC/USD 和 <strong>以太坊</strong>ETH/USD 的机会成本，&#34;他指出，但补充说市场的反应还将取决于美联储如何传达其策略。</p>
<p>披露：82% 的零售 CFD 账户亏损。</p>
<p>预期的变化正在预测市场中显现。</p>
<p>来自 <strong>Polymarket</strong> 的数据表明，支持 9 月降息的押注急剧上升。</p>
<p>一个关于 12 月决定的单独合约现在也大幅倾向于进一步放松，超过 60% 的人预计再降 25 个基点。</p>
<p><strong>Tom Bruni</strong>，<strong>Stocktwits</strong> 社区副总裁指出，加密货币正进入 8 月至 10 月中旬的季节性疲软窗口。</p>
<p>&#34;我们已经看到 ‘好消息’ 未能推动价格上涨。随着美联储现在更可能放松，这可能会支持价格——但前提是经济恶化不会加速到更严重的程度。&#34;</p>
<p><strong>Sunil Raina</strong>，<strong>CereBree</strong> 首席执行官，呼应了这些观点：&#34;除非美联储想冒着破坏经济的风险，否则 9 月降息现在看起来是唯一合理的举措。&#34;但他警告说，通货膨胀和地缘政治风险仍然存在，保持了波动性。</p>
<p><strong>接下来会发生什么：</strong> 背后是一个深度分裂的美联储在应对政治压力。</p>
<p>总统 <strong>Donald Trump</strong> 继续对 Powell 进行公开攻击，在 Truth Social 上称他为&#34;顽固的傻瓜&#34;，并敦促美联储委员会直接干预。</p>
<p>尽管美联储迄今为止抵制了过早行动，但疲弱的劳动数据可能为政策转变提供掩护，而不显得政治上妥协，这种动态可能在未来几周对比特币和风险资产的走势产生重大影响。</p>
<ul>
<li>SEC 启动 ‘项目加密’——这对你意味着什么</li>
</ul>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

ETHE

<p>美国就业报告显示，7 月份仅新增 73,000 个就业岗位，低于预期，这导致 9 月份美联储降息的概率达到 70%。这引发了加密市场的看涨情绪，尤其是比特币和以太坊。专家表示，较低的利率可能有利于无收益资产，但市场反应将取决于美联储的沟通。美联储面临政治压力，尽管降息似乎很可能，但通胀和地缘政治风险可能会保持高波动性</p>

<p>The odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September surged following a surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report, reigniting bullish sentiment across crypto markets heading into a traditionally volatile trading season.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于美国就业报告意外疲软，美联储在九月份降息的可能性激增，重新点燃了加密市场的看涨情绪，进入一个传统的波动交易季节。</p>
</div><p><strong>What Happened:</strong> According to Polymarket data as of August 1, there is now a 70% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at its September 17 meeting, a significant jump from just days prior.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>发生了什么：</strong> 根据截至 8 月 1 日的 Polymarket 数据，现在美联储在 9 月 17 日会议上降息 25 个基点的概率为 70%，相比几天前大幅上升。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, bets on a 50-basis-point cut stand at 6.8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，50 个基点降息的押注为 6.8%。</p>
</div><p>This comes after the U.S. economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, far below the consensus estimate of 110,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这发生在美国经济在 7 月份仅增加 73,000 个就业岗位，远低于共识预期的 110,000 个。</p>
</div><p>Markets were further rattled by a downward revision of 258,000 jobs from May and June, the sharpest two-month downgrade since the onset of COVID-19 in 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场还受到 5 月和 6 月修正下调 258,000 个就业岗位的影响，这是自 2020 年 COVID-19 疫情爆发以来最严重的两个月降级。</p>
</div><p>The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, while wage growth remained stronger than expected at 0.3% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>失业率上升至 4.2%，而工资增长仍然强于预期，环比增长 0.3%，同比增长 3.9%。</p>
</div><p><strong>Also Read: The $100 Billion Bitcoin Bet: How Treasury Companies Are Fueling The Crypto Run</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另请阅读：价值 1000 亿美元的比特币赌注：财政公司如何推动加密热潮</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Why It Matters:</strong> For crypto investors, these signals are meaningful.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>这很重要：</strong> 对于加密投资者来说，这些信号意义重大。</p>
</div><p>&#34;This is absolutely a game changer,&#34; <strong>Greg Magadini</strong>, Director of Derivatives at <strong>Amberdata</strong>, told Benzinga. &#34;The Fed has had the luxury of holding rates higher-for-longer because the jobs market remained strong. That narrative is now in question.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;这绝对是一个游戏规则的改变，&#34; <strong>Greg Magadini</strong>，<strong>Amberdata</strong> 衍生品总监告诉 Benzinga。&#34;美联储一直有高利率维持较长时间的奢侈，因为就业市场保持强劲。这个叙述现在受到质疑。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Magadini explained that the sharp revisions and weak July headline caught markets off guard, pushing the U.S. dollar lower and sending bond yields falling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Magadini 解释说，急剧的修正和疲弱的 7 月数据让市场感到意外，导致美元下跌，债券收益率下降。</p>
</div><p>&#34;This gives the Fed room to cut without appearing to cave to political pressure,&#34; he said, referring to the Trump administration's public criticism of Fed Chair <strong>Jerome Powell.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;这给美联储提供了降息的空间，而不显得屈服于政治压力，&#34;他说，指的是特朗普政府对美联储主席 <strong>Jerome Powell</strong> 的公开批评。</p>
</div><p>Speaking with Benzinga, <strong>Anndy Lian</strong>, a blockchain advisor and author, said the rate cut odds lean favorably for crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在与 Benzinga 的交谈中，区块链顾问和作者 <strong>Anndy Lian</strong> 表示，降息的可能性对加密货币有利。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like <strong>Bitcoin</strong> BTC/USD and <strong>Ethereum</strong> ETH/USD,&#34; he noted, but added that the market's reaction will also depend on how the Fed communicates its strategy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;较低的利率降低了持有无收益资产如 <strong>比特币</strong>BTC/USD 和 <strong>以太坊</strong>ETH/USD 的机会成本，&#34;他指出，但补充说市场的反应还将取决于美联储如何传达其策略。</p>
</div><p>Disclosure: 82% of retail CFD accounts lose money</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>披露：82% 的零售 CFD 账户亏损。</p>
</div><p>The shift in expectations is playing out in prediction markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预期的变化正在预测市场中显现。</p>
</div><p>Data from <strong>Polymarket</strong> shows a sharp rise in bets favoring a September rate cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自 <strong>Polymarket</strong> 的数据表明，支持 9 月降息的押注急剧上升。</p>
</div><p>A separate contract for a December decision also now leans heavily toward further easing, with over 60% expecting another 25-basis-point cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个关于 12 月决定的单独合约现在也大幅倾向于进一步放松，超过 60% 的人预计再降 25 个基点。</p>
</div><p><strong>Tom Bruni</strong>, VP of Community at <strong>Stocktwits</strong>, noted that crypto is entering a seasonally weak window from August through mid-October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Tom Bruni</strong>，<strong>Stocktwits</strong> 社区副总裁指出，加密货币正进入 8 月至 10 月中旬的季节性疲软窗口。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We've already seen ‘good news' fail to drive prices higher. With the Fed now more likely to ease, that could support prices — but only if economic deterioration doesn't accelerate into something more serious.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我们已经看到 ‘好消息’ 未能推动价格上涨。随着美联储现在更可能放松，这可能会支持价格——但前提是经济恶化不会加速到更严重的程度。&#34;</p>
</div><p><strong>Sunil Raina</strong>, CEO of <strong>CereBree</strong>, echoed those thoughts: &#34;Unless the Fed wants to risk breaking the economy, a September rate cut now looks like the only sensible move.&#34; But he warned that inflation and geopolitical risks remain, keeping volatility elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Sunil Raina</strong>，<strong>CereBree</strong> 首席执行官，呼应了这些观点：&#34;除非美联储想冒着破坏经济的风险，否则 9 月降息现在看起来是唯一合理的举措。&#34;但他警告说，通货膨胀和地缘政治风险仍然存在，保持了波动性。</p>
</div><p><strong>What’s Next:</strong> In the background is a deeply divided Fed navigating political pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>接下来会发生什么：</strong> 背后是一个深度分裂的美联储在应对政治压力。</p>
</div><p>President <strong>Donald Trump</strong> has continued his public attacks on Powell, calling him a &#34;stubborn MORON&#34; in a Truth Social post and urging the Federal Reserve Board to intervene directly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总统 <strong>Donald Trump</strong> 继续对 Powell 进行公开攻击，在 Truth Social 上称他为&#34;顽固的傻瓜&#34;，并敦促美联储委员会直接干预。</p>
</div><p>While the Fed has so far resisted acting prematurely, the weakening labor data may offer cover to make a policy shift without appearing politically compromised, a dynamic that could heavily influence the path of Bitcoin and risk assets in the coming weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管美联储迄今为止抵制了过早行动，但疲弱的劳动数据可能为政策转变提供掩护，而不显得政治上妥协，这种动态可能在未来几周对比特币和风险资产的走势产生重大影响。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>SEC Launches ‘Project Crypto’ — Here’s What It Means For You</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>SEC 启动 ‘项目加密’——这对你意味着什么</li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Struggle After Underwhelming Jobs Report: Will A September Rate Cut Save The Bull Run?

- 美联储降息的可能性因美国就业数据疲软而上升至 70%。  
- 7 月新增就业岗位仅为 73,000，远低于预期的 110,000。  
- 降息将降低持有比特币等非收益资产的机会成本。  

比特币、以太坊和 XRP 在令人失望的就业报告发布后表现挣扎：九月份的降息能否拯救这波牛市行情？