<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image200.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image200.png"/></p>
<p>美国股市在八月初出现大幅回落，因为特朗普政府宣布对多个国家实施互惠关税，税率范围从 10% 到 41%。</p>
<p>令人失望的月度就业数据（七月）显示劳动力市场持续疲软，进一步加重了投资者的忧虑，导致基准标准普尔 500 指数显著下跌，最大跌幅达到 2.0%。</p>
<p>尽管这些头条新闻在周五动摇了金融市场，但整体形势对投资者来说仍然足够积极，不必过于担忧。</p>
<p>事实上，有充分理由将此次回调视为健康的暂停，甚至可能是 2025 年下半年的买入机会。</p>
<h2>标准普尔 500 指数需要整固</h2>
<p>在周五的抛售之前，基准标准普尔 500 指数较四月低点上涨近 27%，标志着近期历史上最激进的反弹之一。</p>
<p>在如此快速的涨幅之后，短期的降温不仅是预期中的事情，实际上也是建设性的。</p>
<p>技术分析师指出，该指数自春季以来一直处于看涨势头中，需要时间来稳定，然后才能恢复其上升轨迹。</p>
<p>例如，CappThesis 的 Frank Cappelleri 将最近的上涨形容为 “消化”，暗示基准指数在周五所做的只是重新校准，以解锁其 “下一轮上涨”。</p>
<p>简单来说，美国股市的上述回调可能与疲软关系不大，而更多是关于可持续性。</p>
<h2>八月通常是标准普尔 500 指数的疲软期</h2>
<p>历史上，八月和九月通常是美国股市的低迷期。这种季节性疲软有据可查，反映了投资者在秋季财报和宏观发展前的谨慎态度。</p>
<p>根据 Thrasher Analytics 的创始人 Andrew Thrasher 的说法，市场在最近几周几乎没有出现大幅波动，这可能为当市场出现 1.0% 的波动时设置了波动的基础。</p>
<p>在最近给客户的报告中，Oppenheimer 的 Ari Wald 补充说，内部市场广度在最近的高点上有所收窄，参与反弹的股票数量减少。结合季节性逆风，这使得基准标准普尔 500 指数在周五经历适度回撤并不令人惊讶。</p>
<p>熟悉这些模式的投资者知道，夏末的疲软并不一定会破坏更广泛的牛市前景。</p>
<h2>Oppenheimer 预计标准普尔 500 指数将飙升至 7100 点</h2>
<p>尽管近期动荡，Oppenheimer 对标准普尔 500 指数的长期走势仍持乐观态度。</p>
<p>该投资公司目前对基准指数设定了 7100 的年终目标，意味着从当前水平还有 14% 的潜在上涨空间。</p>
<p>技术分析负责人 Ari Wald 在他最新的研究报告中承认小盘股和价值股的短期脆弱性，但强调大型成长股的强劲表现。</p>
<p>他预计季节性整固将持续到第三季度，但将其视为重新获得收益的准备。</p>
<p>对于长期投资者来说，这进一步强化了周五的抛售更多是一个中途停留，而不是偏离方向。</p>
<p>这篇文章首次出现在 Invezz 上，标题为《为什么周五标准普尔 500 指数的抛售并不令人惊讶，以及接下来会发生什么》。</p>

奥本海默控股

<p>美国股市在八月初经历了急剧下跌，标准普尔 500 指数因特朗普政府宣布的新关税和令人失望的就业数据下跌了 2%。尽管出现了这种抛售，分析师们认为这只是强劲市场中的一次健康暂停，奥本海默预计标准普尔 500 指数年末目标为 7,100，暗示潜在的 14% 上涨空间。市场在八月和九月的历史疲软表明，这次回调可能不会破坏整体的看涨趋势</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image200.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image200.png"/></p>
<p>US stocks kicked off August with a sharp retreat as the Trump administration announced reciprocal tariffs on several countries – with levies ranging from 10% to 41%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国股市在八月初出现大幅回落，因为特朗普政府宣布对多个国家实施互惠关税，税率范围从 10% 到 41%。</p>
</div><p>A disappointing monthly jobs data (July) revealing ongoing labour market weakness added further to investor woes, triggering a notable decline of as much as 2.0% in the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>令人失望的月度就业数据（七月）显示劳动力市场持续疲软，进一步加重了投资者的忧虑，导致基准标准普尔 500 指数显著下跌，最大跌幅达到 2.0%。</p>
</div><p>While these headlines rattled financial markets on Friday, the broader picture remains sufficiently positive for investors to not be overly concerned.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这些头条新闻在周五动摇了金融市场，但整体形势对投资者来说仍然足够积极，不必过于担忧。</p>
</div><p>In fact, there’re compelling reasons to view this pullback as a healthy pause, perhaps even a buying opportunity for the second half of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，有充分理由将此次回调视为健康的暂停，甚至可能是 2025 年下半年的买入机会。</p>
</div><h2>S&amp;P 500 was due for consolidation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>标准普尔 500 指数需要整固</h2>
</div><p>Ahead of Friday’s sell-off, the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index was up nearly 27% versus its April low, marking one of its most aggressive rallies in recent history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周五的抛售之前，基准标准普尔 500 指数较四月低点上涨近 27%，标志着近期历史上最激进的反弹之一。</p>
</div><p>Following such rapid gains, a short-term cooldown is not only expected – it’s actually constructive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在如此快速的涨幅之后，短期的降温不仅是预期中的事情，实际上也是建设性的。</p>
</div><p>Technical analysts note the index had been riding a wave of bullish momentum since spring, and needed time to stabilize before resuming its upward trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>技术分析师指出，该指数自春季以来一直处于看涨势头中，需要时间来稳定，然后才能恢复其上升轨迹。</p>
</div><p>Frank Cappelleri of CappThesis, for example, described the recent surge as “digestive,” suggesting all the benchmark index did on Friday was recalibrate to unlock its “next leg higher”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，CappThesis 的 Frank Cappelleri 将最近的上涨形容为 “消化”，暗示基准指数在周五所做的只是重新校准，以解锁其 “下一轮上涨”。</p>
</div><p>Simply put, the aforementioned pullback in the US stocks may have been less about weakness and more about sustainability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单来说，美国股市的上述回调可能与疲软关系不大，而更多是关于可持续性。</p>
</div><h2>August tends to be weak for the S&amp;P 500 index</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>八月通常是标准普尔 500 指数的疲软期</h2>
</div><p>Historically, both August and September tend to be sluggish for US stocks. The seasonal weakness is well-documented and reflects investor caution ahead of fall earnings and macro developments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，八月和九月通常是美国股市的低迷期。这种季节性疲软有据可查，反映了投资者在秋季财报和宏观发展前的谨慎态度。</p>
</div><p>According to Andrew Thrasher, the founder of Thrasher Analytics, the market had seen very few large daily swings in recent weeks, which can set the stage for volatility when a 1.0% move finally hits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Thrasher Analytics 的创始人 Andrew Thrasher 的说法，市场在最近几周几乎没有出现大幅波动，这可能为当市场出现 1.0% 的波动时设置了波动的基础。</p>
</div><p>In a recent note to clients, Ari Wald of Oppenheimer added that internal market breadth had narrowed at the recent peak, with fewer stocks participating in the rally. The setup, combined with seasonal headwinds, makes it unsurprising that the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index experienced a modest retreat on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近给客户的报告中，Oppenheimer 的 Ari Wald 补充说，内部市场广度在最近的高点上有所收窄，参与反弹的股票数量减少。结合季节性逆风，这使得基准标准普尔 500 指数在周五经历适度回撤并不令人惊讶。</p>
</div><p>Investors familiar with these patterns know that softness in late summer doesn’t necessarily derail the broader bull case.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>熟悉这些模式的投资者知道，夏末的疲软并不一定会破坏更广泛的牛市前景。</p>
</div><h2>Oppenheimer sees S&amp;P 500 soaring to 7,100 level</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Oppenheimer 预计标准普尔 500 指数将飙升至 7100 点</h2>
</div><p>Despite recent turbulence, Oppenheimer remains bullish on S&amp;P 500’s long-term trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管近期动荡，Oppenheimer 对标准普尔 500 指数的长期走势仍持乐观态度。</p>
</div><p>The investment firm currently has a street-high year-end target of 7,100 on the benchmark index, implying potential upside of another 14% from current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该投资公司目前对基准指数设定了 7100 的年终目标，意味着从当前水平还有 14% 的潜在上涨空间。</p>
</div><p>Ari Wald, the head of technical analysis, acknowledged short-term vulnerabilities in small-cap and value stocks in his latest research note but emphasized the strength of large-cap growth names.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>技术分析负责人 Ari Wald 在他最新的研究报告中承认小盘股和价值股的短期脆弱性，但强调大型成长股的强劲表现。</p>
</div><p>He expects seasonal consolidation to continue through the third quarter but views it as a setup for renewed gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他预计季节性整固将持续到第三季度，但将其视为重新获得收益的准备。</p>
</div><p>For investors with a long-term horizon, this reinforces the idea that Friday’s sell-off is more of a pit stop than a detour.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于长期投资者来说，这进一步强化了周五的抛售更多是一个中途停留，而不是偏离方向。</p>
</div><p>The post Why Friday's sell-off in S&amp;P 500 was not surprising and what comes next appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这篇文章首次出现在 Invezz 上，标题为《为什么周五标准普尔 500 指数的抛售并不令人惊讶，以及接下来会发生什么》。</p>
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为什么周五标普 500 指数的抛售并不令人意外，以及接下来可能会发生什么