<p>可以毫不夸张地说，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA -1.69%）已经改变了生活，至少对早期投资者来说是这样。在过去的十年里，其股价飙升超过 1700%，将相对 modest 的投资转变为改变人生的财富。那些早期买入并在剧烈波动中坚持持有的人获得了丰厚的回报。</p>
<p>但今天特斯拉的股票能否再现辉煌？该公司有雄心壮志开发新产品和服务，并持续创新，但股票重现过去的涨幅的机会微乎其微。原因如下。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1NjUvbmV3bW9kZWx5XzY1LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1NjUvbmV3bW9kZWx5XzY1LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>1. 管理层存在疑问</h2>
<p>众所周知，有些人质疑首席执行官埃隆·马斯克是否完全致力于经营特斯拉。在他担任政府效率部的期间，这对他来说是一个巨大的干扰，马斯克表示他将重新专注于他的汽车公司。</p>
<p>但他也表示，他想要成立一个新的政党，并将时间和精力分散在 X（前身为 Twitter）、SpaceX 和其他事业上。马斯克对管理电动车公司的承诺问题，加上制造、电池工程、机器人和超级充电部门一些关键领导人的离职，使人们对特斯拉能否像以前那样增长产生了怀疑。</p>
<p>在公司品牌受损和汽车销量下滑的情况下，它现在比以往任何时候都更需要专注的管理。否则，它可能无法实现一些最雄心勃勃的计划。</p>
<h2>2. 电动车销量下滑</h2>
<p>特斯拉之前股价上涨的很大一部分来自于在电动车市场上取得的早期领先地位。即使在错过目标或出现生产问题时，它仍然能够超越竞争对手，生产和销售更多的汽车。</p>
<p>但现在情况不一定如此。特斯拉面临着日益激烈的全球竞争，尤其是在中国，它不再享有曾经的电动车主导地位。该公司的汽车收入在第二季度下降了 16%，降至 167 亿美元，汽车交付量下降了 14%，降至 384,000 辆。</p>
<p>对此，马斯克表示：“我们可能会经历几个艰难的季度。我并不是说我们一定会，但我们可能会。”</p>
<p>作为一家成熟的电动车制造商，投资者期待交付量和销售额的增长。如果没有这些，股票回报可能会很有限。</p>
<h2>3. 电动车进入不确定时代</h2>
<p>我相信电动车是汽车运输的未来（以至于我已经持有 <strong>Rivian</strong> 的股票好几年了），但我也看到它们正进入一个困难时期。</p>
<p>国会最近取消了对电动车的联邦税收激励，这将在九月份结束，而特朗普政府与一些州在价值 50 亿美元的电动车充电基础设施资金上展开了法律斗争。联邦政府对该行业的撤退可能会减缓电动车的普及速度。</p>
<p>此外，电动车的成本也是一个问题。新特斯拉的平均交易价格约为 55,000 美元，比平均汽油车高出 12%。随着利率仍然处于高位，这些更高的成本可能迅速累积，成为买家的障碍。</p>
<p>许多潜在买家将充电基础设施的缺乏视为一个障碍。虽然电动车可能是未来，但其高成本和联邦投资的放缓可能意味着承诺的未来到来所需的时间比最初预期的要长。</p>
<h2>4. 特斯拉的新增长驱动力尚未到来</h2>
<p>马斯克表示，特斯拉的未来在于机器人和自动驾驶汽车，但这些市场距离成熟还有很多年。确实，它正在取得进展。该公司表示，今年将生产 5,000 个 Optimus 机器人，并计划到明年年底达到 50,000 个。</p>
<p>特斯拉最近在德克萨斯州奥斯丁推出了一项机器人出租车服务，帮助公司朝着其自动驾驶汽车的目标迈进。</p>
<p>这些市场可能具有显著的上行潜力。根据威廉·布莱尔的分析师的估计，到 2040 年，全球机器人出租车业务的价值将达到 1.4 万亿美元，而 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 估计人形机器人行业到 2050 年可能价值 5 万亿美元。</p>
<p>但最近的报告显示，它可能在今年生产 5,000 个机器人的目标上远远落后，尽管自动驾驶汽车有很大的潜力，但仍不清楚该公司在与包括 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Waymo 在内的竞争对手的竞争中能取得多大成功。简而言之，特斯拉有雄心壮志，但尚未完全过渡到其第二幕。</p>
<p>以上所有因素应该让你对公司当前面临的内部和外部挑战有一个大致的了解。不确定的电动车需求、管理层的分心以及对公司在机器人和自动驾驶汽车等新市场成功的质疑，几乎不是特斯拉股票成功的良方。</p>
<p>这并不意味着公司不会克服这些问题或继续增长，但在如此多的不确定性和一些重大问题需要解决的情况下，特斯拉的股票在此时不太可能为你铺就一生的财富。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉的股票在过去十年中飙升超过 1700%，回报了早期投资者。然而，目前面临的挑战包括管理层分心、电动车销量下滑以及竞争加剧，尤其是在中国。该公司的汽车收入在第二季度下降了 16%，潜在买家面临高昂的成本和减少的联邦激励措施。尽管特斯拉旨在机器人和自动驾驶汽车领域进行创新，但这些市场仍在发展中，这引发了人们对公司能否复制过去成功的怀疑。在这些不确定性中，投资者应对未来的股票表现保持谨慎</p>

<p>It's not a stretch to say that <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -1.69%) has already changed lives, at least for early investors. Over the past decade, its stock has soared more than 1,700%, turning relatively modest investments into life-changing wealth. Those who bought in early and held on through the wild volatility have been handsomely rewarded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以毫不夸张地说，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA -1.69%）已经改变了生活，至少对早期投资者来说是这样。在过去的十年里，其股价飙升超过 1700%，将相对 modest 的投资转变为改变人生的财富。那些早期买入并在剧烈波动中坚持持有的人获得了丰厚的回报。</p>
</div><p>But can Tesla stock do the same today? The company has plenty of ambition to develop new products and services and continues to innovate, but the chances of the stock repeating its past gains are slim. Here's why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但今天特斯拉的股票能否再现辉煌？该公司有雄心壮志开发新产品和服务，并持续创新，但股票重现过去的涨幅的机会微乎其微。原因如下。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1NjUvbmV3bW9kZWx5XzY1LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F827565%2Fnewmodely_65.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>1. There are questions about management</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 管理层存在疑问</h2>
</div><p>It's no secret that some people question whether CEO Elon Musk is fully committed to running Tesla. After his stint at the Department of Government Efficiency, which was a huge distraction, Musk has said that he'll refocus his attention on his car company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>众所周知，有些人质疑首席执行官埃隆·马斯克是否完全致力于经营特斯拉。在他担任政府效率部的期间，这对他来说是一个巨大的干扰，马斯克表示他将重新专注于他的汽车公司。</p>
</div><p>But he has also said that he wants to start a new political party and splits his time and energy among X (formerly Twitter), SpaceX, and other ventures. The question of Musk's commitment to managing the EV company comes on top of the departure of some key leaders from its manufacturing, battery engineering, robotics, and supercharging departments. All of which have cast doubt on Tesla's ability to grow as it once did.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但他也表示，他想要成立一个新的政党，并将时间和精力分散在 X（前身为 Twitter）、SpaceX 和其他事业上。马斯克对管理电动车公司的承诺问题，加上制造、电池工程、机器人和超级充电部门一些关键领导人的离职，使人们对特斯拉能否像以前那样增长产生了怀疑。</p>
</div><p>It needs focused management now more than ever amid the company's bruised brand and falling vehicle sales. Otherwise, it likely won't be able to deliver on some of its most ambitious plans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在公司品牌受损和汽车销量下滑的情况下，它现在比以往任何时候都更需要专注的管理。否则，它可能无法实现一些最雄心勃勃的计划。</p>
</div><h2>2. Its EV sales are falling</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 电动车销量下滑</h2>
</div><p>Much of Tesla's previous share price gains came from carving out an early lead in the EV market. Even when it missed goals or production issues surfaced, it was still able to outproduce and outsell competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉之前股价上涨的很大一部分来自于在电动车市场上取得的早期领先地位。即使在错过目标或出现生产问题时，它仍然能够超越竞争对手，生产和销售更多的汽车。</p>
</div><p>But that's not necessarily the case anymore. Tesla faces increasing global competition, especially in China, and it no longer enjoys some of the EV dominance it once had. The company's auto revenue fell 16% in the second quarter to $16.7 billion, and its vehicle deliveries dropped by 14% to 384,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但现在情况不一定如此。特斯拉面临着日益激烈的全球竞争，尤其是在中国，它不再享有曾经的电动车主导地位。该公司的汽车收入在第二季度下降了 16%，降至 167 亿美元，汽车交付量下降了 14%，降至 384,000 辆。</p>
</div><p>In response, Musk said: &#34;We probably could have a few rough quarters. I'm not saying that we will, but we could.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对此，马斯克表示：“我们可能会经历几个艰难的季度。我并不是说我们一定会，但我们可能会。”</p>
</div><p>With Tesla being an established EV maker, investors expect increasing deliveries and rising sales. Without them, the stock returns could be modest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为一家成熟的电动车制造商，投资者期待交付量和销售额的增长。如果没有这些，股票回报可能会很有限。</p>
</div><h2>3. EVs are entering an uncertain era</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 电动车进入不确定时代</h2>
</div><p>I believe EVs are the future of automotive transportation (so much so that I've owned shares of <strong>Rivian</strong> for a few years now), but I also see the writing on the wall that they are entering a difficult time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我相信电动车是汽车运输的未来（以至于我已经持有 <strong>Rivian</strong> 的股票好几年了），但我也看到它们正进入一个困难时期。</p>
</div><p>Congress recently scrapped federal tax incentives for EVs, which will dry up in September, and the Trump administration has been in a legal battle with some states over $5 billion worth of EV charging infrastructure funds. The federal government's moves away from the industry are likely to slow down EV adoption rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国会最近取消了对电动车的联邦税收激励，这将在九月份结束，而特朗普政府与一些州在价值 50 亿美元的电动车充电基础设施资金上展开了法律斗争。联邦政府对该行业的撤退可能会减缓电动车的普及速度。</p>
</div><p>And then there's the cost of EVs. The average transaction price for a new Tesla is about $55,000 -- 12% more than the average gasoline-powered vehicle. With interest rates still elevated, those higher costs can add up quickly and become a deterrent to buyers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，电动车的成本也是一个问题。新特斯拉的平均交易价格约为 55,000 美元，比平均汽油车高出 12%。随着利率仍然处于高位，这些更高的成本可能迅速累积，成为买家的障碍。</p>
</div><p>Many potential buyers view the lack of charging infrastructure as a hurdle. While EVs may be the future, their high cost and the slowdown in federal investments could mean that the promised future may take longer to arrive than originally expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多潜在买家将充电基础设施的缺乏视为一个障碍。虽然电动车可能是未来，但其高成本和联邦投资的放缓可能意味着承诺的未来到来所需的时间比最初预期的要长。</p>
</div><h2>4. Tesla's new growth drivers aren't here yet</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. 特斯拉的新增长驱动力尚未到来</h2>
</div><p>Musk says that Tesla's future lies in robotics and autonomous vehicles, but those markets are many years away from maturity. Sure, it is making progress. The company has said it will produce 5,000 Optimus robots this year and is aiming for 50,000 by the end of next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克表示，特斯拉的未来在于机器人和自动驾驶汽车，但这些市场距离成熟还有很多年。确实，它正在取得进展。该公司表示，今年将生产 5,000 个 Optimus 机器人，并计划到明年年底达到 50,000 个。</p>
</div><p>And Tesla recently launched a robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, that helps move the company toward its goals in self-driving vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉最近在德克萨斯州奥斯丁推出了一项机器人出租车服务，帮助公司朝着其自动驾驶汽车的目标迈进。</p>
</div><p>There are potentially significant upsides to these markets. The global robotaxi business will be worth an estimated $1.4 trillion by 2040, according to analysts at William Blair, and <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong> estimates the humanoid robot industry could be worth a projected $5 trillion by 2050.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些市场可能具有显著的上行潜力。根据威廉·布莱尔的分析师的估计，到 2040 年，全球机器人出租车业务的价值将达到 1.4 万亿美元，而 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 估计人形机器人行业到 2050 年可能价值 5 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>But recent reports indicate it may be far behind on that goal to produce 5,000 robots this year, and while autonomous vehicles have lots of promise, it's still unknown how much the company will succeed against rivals, including <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Waymo. In short, Tesla has big ambitions, but it has yet to fully transition to its second act.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但最近的报告显示，它可能在今年生产 5,000 个机器人的目标上远远落后，尽管自动驾驶汽车有很大的潜力，但仍不清楚该公司在与包括 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Waymo 在内的竞争对手的竞争中能取得多大成功。简而言之，特斯拉有雄心壮志，但尚未完全过渡到其第二幕。</p>
</div><p>All of the above should give you a glimpse of the company's internal and external challenges right now. Uncertain EV demand, somewhat distracted management, and questions about how successful the company will be in new markets like robotics and autonomous vehicles are hardly a recipe for Tesla's stock success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以上所有因素应该让你对公司当前面临的内部和外部挑战有一个大致的了解。不确定的电动车需求、管理层的分心以及对公司在机器人和自动驾驶汽车等新市场成功的质疑，几乎不是特斯拉股票成功的良方。</p>
</div><p>That doesn't mean the company won't overcome these issues or continue growing, but with so many unknowns and some significant problems to address, it's unlikely that Tesla stock will set you up for life at this point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不意味着公司不会克服这些问题或继续增长，但在如此多的不确定性和一些重大问题需要解决的情况下，特斯拉的股票在此时不太可能为你铺就一生的财富。</p>
</div>

Could Buying Tesla Stock Today Set You Up for Life?

- 特斯拉股价在过去十年上涨超过 1,700%。
- 目前面临管理层动荡和电动车销售下滑的挑战。
- 新市场的成功尚不确定，未来增长动力尚未显现。

今天购买特斯拉股票能否为你的一生做好财务准备？