<p><strong>编辑注：</strong> 纳斯达克和标准普尔指数距离历史最高点并不远。大型科技公司的财报整体上让华尔街惊艳。而且，错失恐惧正在上升。</p>
<p>但正如我们之前所见，并不是每一次反弹都能以良好的结局收场。</p>
<p>今天，我们将 <em>Digest</em> 的话语权交给我们的宏观投资专家 Eric Fry，他将对市场上正在发生的事情进行及时的分析。</p>
<p>在他下面的文章中，Eric 将他在南加州打沙滩排球的几十年经历与当今的投资环境进行了意想不到但令人惊讶的类比。</p>
<p>你将看到，当前一些股票的飙升可能已经过快过远……而其他一些股票则在反弹中开始走弱……只有少数几只股票具备实现真正、持久收益的基本面。</p>
<p>如果你想避免人工智能炒作股票，并找到那些在下一次财报发布前有强大基础和增长空间的公司，今天的 <em>Digest</em> 是必读之作。</p>
<p>介绍到此，我将把时间交给 Eric。</p>
<p>祝你周末愉快，</p>
<p>Jeff Remsburg</p>
<hr/>
<p>我是一名土生土长的南加州人，所以你可能不会惊讶于我是一名狂热的沙滩排球爱好者。</p>
<p>事实上，我已经打了几十年沙滩排球，并在 1980 年代的 “疯狂青春” 时光里在加州的沙滩排球网上度过。</p>
<p>虽然我开玩笑地称这项运动为我的 “真正工作”，但事实是，打排球与在市场上投资有相似之处，尤其是在反弹期间。</p>
<p>就像我们现在所经历的那样。</p>
<p>上周五，标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数在盘中交易中均创下历史新高。今天的开盘价更高，主要是由于对美国和欧盟之间昨日贸易协议的乐观情绪。</p>
<p>这一上升趋势可能会在本周继续，因为几家大型科技公司将发布财报。</p>
<p>虽然 “错失恐惧” 可能让你想参与这次反弹，但你仍然应该谨慎行事。</p>
<p>以下是我在排球网上的经历教会我的关于聪明投资的道理……</p>
<p>沙滩排球和市场一样，也由反弹组成。然而，在沙滩排球中，反弹是指在任何给定得分中，双方之间的击球序列。</p>
<p>排球反弹总是以发球开始——并且以三种方式之一结束……</p>
<p><strong>1.</strong> <strong>球出界。</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image.jpg"/></p>
<p>从投资的角度来看，你可以将其视为估值极高的公司。虽然这些公司可能对投资者看起来很有吸引力，比如 <strong>Nvidia Corp. (</strong> <strong>NVDA</strong> <strong>)</strong>，但事实是它们的估值已经过高，导致它们处于高空之中。</p>
<p>例如，Nvidia 的市值为 4.23 万亿美元，是 <em>全球</em> 最高的。它目前的交易价格是其过去的市盈率（P/E）比率的 56 倍，约为市场平均水平的两倍。</p>
<p>我建议避免像这样的出界股票，因为它们的高估值最终会转向低估值……</p>
<p>相反，你应该关注那些在场地内稳稳落地的公司。这就是为什么我寻找那些由强大基本面构建的有前景的公司——吸引人的估值。</p>
<p>事实上，我推荐一家公司 <em>超过</em> Nvidia。它将于明天，即 7 月 29 日，发布 2025 年第二季度的财报。分析师预计该公司将以超过 20% 的年增长率和近 7% 的年收入增长率超出预期。</p>
<p><strong>你可以通过点击这里了解有关该公司的所有详细信息——在其财报发布之前。</strong></p>
<p>这让我想到了排球反弹的第二种方式……</p>
<p><strong>2.</strong> <strong>一方犯规，</strong> 比如未能将球传过网。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image-5.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image-5.jpeg"/></p>
<p>你可以将其视为那些未能达标的公司。就像 <strong>Tesla Inc. (</strong> <strong>TSLA</strong> <strong>)</strong>，正如我们在上周六的 <em>Smart Money</em> 中讨论的那样。</p>
<p>该公司上周宣布，其 2025 年第二季度的收入和利润均未达预期。这主要是由于汽车销售下降。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克表示，该公司 “可能会面临几个艰难的季度”。</p>
<p>更重要的是，特斯拉在实现其今年生产至少 5000 个 Optimus 机器人的目标方面远远落后。目前，该公司仅生产了几百个。</p>
<p>特斯拉未能回球，因此不是我们希望在投资组合中持有的股票。</p>
<p>我更关注一家成功越过网的公司。这是一家与特斯拉直接竞争的机器人公司，其当前的订单积压意味着未来还有 230 亿美元的销售额已经在账上。<strong>你可以在这里免费了解这家公司的名称。</strong></p>
<p>当然，沙滩排球反弹对发球方最有利的结束方式是……</p>
<p><strong>3. 得分。</strong></p>
<p>你不必是沙滩排球迷，甚至不必是体育迷，便知道得分是获胜的唯一方式。</p>
<p>当然，作为投资者，我们也希望在反弹中 “获胜”。</p>
<p>做到这一点的最佳方法是正确操作。你不想囤积高估值或有缺陷的公司。事实上，如果这些类型的股票现在在你的投资组合中，我建议 <em>卖出</em>。</p>
<p>你想在合适的时间投资于合适的股票。</p>
<p>这就是为什么我 <strong>整理了一份我认为是 “买入” 的三家公司名单。</strong> 这些都是低调的早期机会，可以帮助你在关键市场中保护和增值你的资金。</p>
<p>你可以在 <strong>我全新的特别广播中找到这些公司的详细信息——包括股票代码，完全免费。</strong></p>
<p>此致，</p>
<p>Eric Fry</p>
<p>编辑，<strong><em>Smart Money</em></strong></p>

英伟达

<p>纳斯达克和标准普尔指数接近历史最高点，受到大型科技公司强劲财报和日益加剧的 FOMO（错失恐惧症）的推动。宏观投资专家埃里克·弗赖（Eric Fry）将市场反弹比作沙滩排球，强调并非所有反弹都以积极的结果结束。他警告投资者要谨慎对待高估值股票，如英伟达，并建议关注基本面稳健的公司。弗赖强调谨慎投资的重要性，尤其是一些股票可能上涨过快，而另一些则在反弹中开始疲软。他鼓励读者寻找那些有潜力实现真正、持久收益的公司</p>

<p><strong>Editor’s Note:</strong> The Nasdaq and S&amp;P aren’t far below all-time highs. Big Tech earnings, overall, are wowing Wall Street. And FOMO is rising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>编辑注：</strong> 纳斯达克和标准普尔指数距离历史最高点并不远。大型科技公司的财报整体上让华尔街惊艳。而且，错失恐惧正在上升。</p>
</div><p>But as we’ve seen before, not every rally ends well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但正如我们之前所见，并不是每一次反弹都能以良好的结局收场。</p>
</div><p>Today, we’re turning over the <em>Digest</em> to our macro investing expert Eric Fry for a timely take on what’s unfolding in the markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，我们将 <em>Digest</em> 的话语权交给我们的宏观投资专家 Eric Fry，他将对市场上正在发生的事情进行及时的分析。</p>
</div><p>In his essay below, Eric draws an unexpected – but surprisingly revealing – analogy between his decades playing beach volleyball in Southern California and navigating today’s investment landscape.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在他下面的文章中，Eric 将他在南加州打沙滩排球的几十年经历与当今的投资环境进行了意想不到但令人惊讶的类比。</p>
</div><p>You’ll see why some stocks soaring right now may have run too far, too fast… why others are starting to break down mid-rally… and why only a select few have the fundamentals in place to deliver real, lasting gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你将看到，当前一些股票的飙升可能已经过快过远……而其他一些股票则在反弹中开始走弱……只有少数几只股票具备实现真正、持久收益的基本面。</p>
</div><p>If you want to avoid the AI hype stocks and find the companies with strong footing and room to run before their next earnings drop, today’s <em>Digest</em> is essential reading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你想避免人工智能炒作股票，并找到那些在下一次财报发布前有强大基础和增长空间的公司，今天的 <em>Digest</em> 是必读之作。</p>
</div><p>Enough introduction. I’ll let Eric take it from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>介绍到此，我将把时间交给 Eric。</p>
</div><p>Have a good weekend,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>祝你周末愉快，</p>
</div><p>Jeff Remsburg</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Jeff Remsburg</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p>I’m a native Southern Californian, so it probably won’t surprise you to hear that I’m an avid beach volleyball player.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我是一名土生土长的南加州人，所以你可能不会惊讶于我是一名狂热的沙滩排球爱好者。</p>
</div><p>In fact, I’ve been playing for decades, and spent my “crazy youth” of the 1980s at the volleyball nets ofCalifornia’s beaches.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，我已经打了几十年沙滩排球，并在 1980 年代的 “疯狂青春” 时光里在加州的沙滩排球网上度过。</p>
</div><p>Although I have jokingly referred to the sport as my “real job,” the truth is that playing volleyball has similarities to playing the market, especially during a rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然我开玩笑地称这项运动为我的 “真正工作”，但事实是，打排球与在市场上投资有相似之处，尤其是在反弹期间。</p>
</div><p>Like the one we’re experiencing right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就像我们现在所经历的那样。</p>
</div><p>On Friday, the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes both hit record highs during intraday trading. They started out even higher today largely due to optimism surrounding yesterday’s trade agreement between the United States and European Union</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周五，标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数在盘中交易中均创下历史新高。今天的开盘价更高，主要是由于对美国和欧盟之间昨日贸易协议的乐观情绪。</p>
</div><p>This upward trend may continue this week, as several big tech companies deliver earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一上升趋势可能会在本周继续，因为几家大型科技公司将发布财报。</p>
</div><p>While the “fear of missing out” may have you wanting to participate in this rally, you should still do so cautiously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 “错失恐惧” 可能让你想参与这次反弹，但你仍然应该谨慎行事。</p>
</div><p>Here’s what my time at the net has taught me about smart investing…</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是我在排球网上的经历教会我的关于聪明投资的道理……</p>
</div><p>Beach volleyball, like the markets, also consists of rallies. In the sandy game, though, a rally is the sequence of hits back and forth between teams during any given point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沙滩排球和市场一样，也由反弹组成。然而，在沙滩排球中，反弹是指在任何给定得分中，双方之间的击球序列。</p>
</div><p>A volleyball rally always starts with a serve – and it ends in only one of three ways…</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>排球反弹总是以发球开始——并且以三种方式之一结束……</p>
</div><p><strong>1.</strong> <strong>The ball lands out of bounds.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>1.</strong> <strong>球出界。</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image.jpg"/></p>
<p>From an investing angle, you can think of this as companies with sky-high valuations. While these firms may seem attractive to investors, like <strong>Nvidia Corp. (</strong> <strong>NVDA</strong> <strong>)</strong>, the truth is that their valuations are overshot, landing them in the stratosphere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从投资的角度来看，你可以将其视为估值极高的公司。虽然这些公司可能对投资者看起来很有吸引力，比如 <strong>Nvidia Corp. (</strong> <strong>NVDA</strong> <strong>)</strong>，但事实是它们的估值已经过高，导致它们处于高空之中。</p>
</div><p>For instance, Nvidia’s market cap sits at $4.23 trillion, the highest in the <em>world</em>. It is currently trading for 56X its trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, or about double the market average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，Nvidia 的市值为 4.23 万亿美元，是 <em>全球</em> 最高的。它目前的交易价格是其过去的市盈率（P/E）比率的 56 倍，约为市场平均水平的两倍。</p>
</div><p>I recommend avoiding out-of-bounds stocks like these because their high valuations yield to low valuations… eventually.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我建议避免像这样的出界股票，因为它们的高估值最终会转向低估值……</p>
</div><p>Instead, you’ll want to focus on companies that land squarely within the winning parameters of the court. That is why I look for companies that have a promising runway built by strong fundamentals – attractive valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，你应该关注那些在场地内稳稳落地的公司。这就是为什么我寻找那些由强大基本面构建的有前景的公司——吸引人的估值。</p>
</div><p>In fact, I recommend one such company <em>over</em> Nvidia. And it is set to report its second quarter earnings for 2025 tomorrow, July 29. Analysts expect this company to beat estimates with over 20% year-over-year earnings growth and nearly 7% year-over-year revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，我推荐一家公司 <em>超过</em> Nvidia。它将于明天，即 7 月 29 日，发布 2025 年第二季度的财报。分析师预计该公司将以超过 20% 的年增长率和近 7% 的年收入增长率超出预期。</p>
</div><p><strong>You can learn how to access all of the details about this company – before its earnings call – by clicking here.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>你可以通过点击这里了解有关该公司的所有详细信息——在其财报发布之前。</strong></p>
</div><p>This brings me to the second way a volleyball rally…</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这让我想到了排球反弹的第二种方式……</p>
</div><p><strong>2.</strong> <strong>A team commits a fault</strong>, like failing to return the ball over the net.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>2.</strong> <strong>一方犯规，</strong> 比如未能将球传过网。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image-5.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image-5.jpeg"/></p>
<p>You can think of this as companies that miss the mark. Like <strong>Tesla Inc. (</strong> <strong>TSLA</strong> <strong>)</strong>, as <strong>we talked about in last Saturday’s <em>Smart Money</em></strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可以将其视为那些未能达标的公司。就像 <strong>Tesla Inc. (</strong> <strong>TSLA</strong> <strong>)</strong>，正如我们在上周六的 <em>Smart Money</em> 中讨论的那样。</p>
</div><p>The company announced last week that it missed both top and bottom lines for the second quarter of 2025. This is largely due to declining vehicle sales. CEO Elon Musk said that the company “probably could have a few rough quarters” ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司上周宣布，其 2025 年第二季度的收入和利润均未达预期。这主要是由于汽车销售下降。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克表示，该公司 “可能会面临几个艰难的季度”。</p>
</div><p>What’s more, Tesla is well behind the pace needed to meet its stated goal of producing at least 5,000 Optimus robots this year. The company has so far only produced a few hundred.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，特斯拉在实现其今年生产至少 5000 个 Optimus 机器人的目标方面远远落后。目前，该公司仅生产了几百个。</p>
</div><p>Tesla is failing to return and is, therefore, not a stock that we want in our portfolios.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉未能回球，因此不是我们希望在投资组合中持有的股票。</p>
</div><p>I’ve got my eye instead on a company that is successfully sailing over the net. It’s a robotics company that is a direct competitor to Tesla, and its current backlog means there’s another $23 billion in future sales already baked in the cake. <strong>You can learn the name of this company, for free, here.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我更关注一家成功越过网的公司。这是一家与特斯拉直接竞争的机器人公司，其当前的订单积压意味着未来还有 230 亿美元的销售额已经在账上。<strong>你可以在这里免费了解这家公司的名称。</strong></p>
</div><p>Of course, the most favorable way to end a beach volleyball rally for the serving team is when…</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，沙滩排球反弹对发球方最有利的结束方式是……</p>
</div><p><strong>3. A point is scored.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>3. 得分。</strong></p>
</div><p>You don’t have to be a beach volleyball fan, or even a sports fan in general, to know that scoring a point is the only way to win.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你不必是沙滩排球迷，甚至不必是体育迷，便知道得分是获胜的唯一方式。</p>
</div><p>Of course, as investors, we also want to “win” the rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，作为投资者，我们也希望在反弹中 “获胜”。</p>
</div><p>The best way to do that is to play it right. You don’t want to stock up on overvalued or faulty companies. In fact, I recommend <em>selling</em> those types of stocks if they are in your portfolio right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>做到这一点的最佳方法是正确操作。你不想囤积高估值或有缺陷的公司。事实上，如果这些类型的股票现在在你的投资组合中，我建议 <em>卖出</em>。</p>
</div><p>You want to invest in the right stocks at the right time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你想在合适的时间投资于合适的股票。</p>
</div><p>That’s why I’ve <strong>compiled a list of three companies that I believe are “Buys.”</strong> These are under-the-radar, early opportunities that can help you protect and multiply your money during make-or-break markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么我 <strong>整理了一份我认为是 “买入” 的三家公司名单。</strong> 这些都是低调的早期机会，可以帮助你在关键市场中保护和增值你的资金。</p>
</div><p>You can find the details of these companies – ticker symbols and all – in <strong>my brand-new special broadcast, free of charge.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可以在 <strong>我全新的特别广播中找到这些公司的详细信息——包括股票代码，完全免费。</strong></p>
</div><p>Regards,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此致，</p>
</div><p>Eric Fry</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Eric Fry</p>
</div><p>Editor, <strong><em>Smart Money</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>编辑，<strong><em>Smart Money</em></strong></p>
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Three Ways a Rally Ends – Only One Makes You Money

- 大型科技公司财报表现强劲，市场乐观情绪上升。  
- 投资者需谨慎，避免高估值和业绩不佳的股票。  
- 推荐关注基本面强劲的公司，以实现长期收益。

反弹结束的三种方式——只有一种能让你获利