<p>这无可否认。自 1997 年上市以来，电子商务巨头 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 的股价上涨超过 300,000%，成为这一代市场上最有回报的投资之一。它的表现依然强劲。尽管规模庞大，但预计今年的收入增长超过 9%，明年将接近 10%。这并不差。</p>
<p>但没有公司能永远压制竞争对手。年轻的、有进取心的竞争者最终会找到新的、更好的想法、技术或解决方案来渗透市场。</p>
<p>这时 <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP -2.95%) 登场了，它引入了自亚马逊近 30 年前扎根以来，在线购物行业可能经历的最大变革。而且它的增长数据也证明了这一点。</p>
<h2>什么是 Shopify？</h2>
<p>简单来说，Shopify 帮助各类企业建立和运营自己的电子商务平台。从网站到数字购物车，再到库存管理、在线营销和支付处理，Shopify 是任何希望在线开展业务但不知道从何开始的企业的一站式服务。尽管公司本身不再披露具体数字，但估计目前使用 Shopify 的在线商店数量已达到数百万。你可能甚至在不知情的情况下使用过它的技术。</p>
<p>当然，单单开设一个在线商店并不一定意味着成功。这些运营者的实际表现如何呢？</p>
<p>实际上表现相当不错。Shopify 的技术在去年促成了价值 2923 亿美元的商品和服务销售，比 2023 年的收入增长了 24%。就其自身而言，Shopify 在 2024 年产生了近 89 亿美元的收入，反映了这些销售的一部分、某些服务的订阅收入、支付处理费用等。其中 11 亿美元转化为营业收入。相比之下，亚马逊报告的 2024 年收入为 6380 亿美元，净收入为 590 亿美元。显然，Shopify 对这家电子商务巨头并没有立即的生存威胁。</p>
<p>然而，Shopify 并不需要推翻亚马逊才能成为一项有回报的投资。它只需要自身增长，而这方面它没有任何问题。考虑到在线购物环境正在以一种恰好符合 Shopify 独特优势的方式演变，它可能不会很快面临增长阻力。</p>
<h2>在所有正确的方面都不同</h2>
<p>要充分理解 Shopify 未来的可能性，你真的需要回顾一下它的根源。</p>
<p>托比亚斯·吕特克、丹尼尔·韦南德和斯科特·莱克并不是偶然在 2006 年创建了 Shopify。在几年前推出滑雪装备在线商店后，这三人意识到小企业在建立自己的电子商务平台时可用的工具非常糟糕。那时，真正的商业机会变得清晰可见。其余的，正如他们所说，都是历史。</p>
<p>话虽如此，实际上，亚马逊对北美在线购物市场的强势但粗暴的控制为 Shopify 的惊人增长奠定了基础。</p>
<p>想想看。许多商家和在线卖家利用亚马逊.com 作为销售平台，原因在于其庞大的规模；行业研究机构 Digital Commerce 360 表示，它促进了北美约 40% 的在线购物。但这些卖家越来越不把亚马逊视为合作伙伴。这是因为——除了直接与亚马逊自己的商品竞争外——亚马逊还通过以新的方式货币化其销售平台，使其第三方卖家相互竞争。这就是广告。为了在亚马逊.com 上真正具备竞争力，第三方卖家需要支付费用来展示他们的产品。仅去年，亚马逊就进行了超过 560 亿美元的高利润广告业务，所有费用都来自其卖家。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1MTMvZS1jb21tZXJjZS1tYW4tc21pbGluZy1jcmVkaXQtY2FyZC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1MTMvZS1jb21tZXJjZS1tYW4tc21pbGluZy1jcmVkaXQtY2FyZC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>然后就是在一个渴望品牌真实性的环境中，品牌真实性的问题。</p>
<p>虽然亚马逊的产品列表有效且高效，但它们也冷漠且缺乏个性，无法讲述背后公司的故事。然而，使用 Shopify 的商店则不同，卖家可以完全控制展示方式，从而建立起与消费者之间的个人联系，进而促成销售。这一点很重要。<strong>Forrester</strong> 进行的最新研究表明，70% 的消费者表示他们更能与真实的品牌产生共鸣，因此更可能购买该品牌。这个趋势也在增长，年轻消费者越来越需要这种个人联系。</p>
<p>在这种情况下，通过亚马逊销售的最令人沮丧的方面之一是，一旦卖家或商家将消费者转变为付费客户，那个人更像是亚马逊的客户，而不是卖家的客户。然而，通过使用 Shopify 的技术直接向消费者销售，企业可以与个人建立更深层次的客户关系，至少因为它直接获取了该人的联系信息。</p>
<p>由所有这些因素创造的机会简直令人惊叹。Straits Research 的展望表明，全球电子商务平台市场预计将在 2033 年前以 12% 的年均增速增长，这与 Mordor Intelligence 和 Market.us 的类似预测一致。分析师预计，Shopify 在至少到 2027 年期间将实现更好的增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1MTMvMDczMDI1LXNob3BpZnktcmVzdWx0cy5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1MTMvMDczMDI1LXNob3BpZnktcmVzdWx0cy5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：StockAnalysis.com。图表由作者制作。</p>
<p>考虑到其在这一领域的主导份额（根据 Oberlo 的数据，美国市场的份额为 28%）以及整个行业的持续扩张，Shopify 很可能会在这一点上保持强劲的增长率。</p>
<h2>不必过于担心高估值</h2>
<p>确实存在合理的担忧。其中最主要的是估值。Shopify 的股票目前的价格几乎是今年预期每股利润 1.39 美元的 90 倍，以及明年预计每股利润 1.78 美元的 70 倍。如果没有其他因素，这样的高估值使得股票容易受到较大波动的影响。高于共识目标价 118.79 美元的定价也并没有带来帮助。</p>
<p>然而，这正是一个故事如此引人注目、公司未来如此光明的案例，以至于市场支持高估值。事实上，Shopify 的股票仍然在接近二月份的高点交易，并且仍然远低于 2021 年的高点，这是一种机会。</p>
<p>不过，如果最近报告的经济数据能够反映经济的状况，这个机会窗口可能不会再开放太久。尽管七月份的就业报告令人失望，但六月份的零售销售、消费者支出以及第二季度估计的 3% GDP 增长率都相当强劲。这一点很重要，因为经济的强劲支持了消费，包括 Shopify 所促进的在线购物。</p>

SHOP

<p>这篇文章讨论了 Shopify 作为成长股与亚马逊的潜力比较。尽管亚马逊自首次公开募股以来经历了显著增长，Shopify 正通过为企业提供建立电子商务存在的工具而成为强有力的竞争者。Shopify 去年促成了 2923 亿美元的销售额，并产生了 89 亿美元的收入。文章强调了在线购物动态的变化，卖家越来越寻求真实性和对品牌的控制，而 Shopify 正好提供了这些，与亚马逊更为冷漠的平台形成对比</p>

<p>There's no denying it. Up more than 300,000% since its 1997 public offering, e-commerce giant <strong>Amazon</strong> is one of the market's most rewarding investments of this generation. It's still going strong too. Despite it's already massive size, this year's expected top-line growth of more than 9% should reach nearly 10% next year. Not bad.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这无可否认。自 1997 年上市以来，电子商务巨头 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 的股价上涨超过 300,000%，成为这一代市场上最有回报的投资之一。它的表现依然强劲。尽管规模庞大，但预计今年的收入增长超过 9%，明年将接近 10%。这并不差。</p>
</div><p>But no company keeps its competitors in-check forever. Young, enterprising rivals will eventually figure out how to penetrate the market with a new and better idea, technology, or solution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但没有公司能永远压制竞争对手。年轻的、有进取心的竞争者最终会找到新的、更好的想法、技术或解决方案来渗透市场。</p>
</div><p>Enter <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP -2.95%), which has introduced what's arguably the most change the online shopping industry has seen since Amazon laid down its roots nearly 30 years ago. And it's got the growth numbers to prove it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这时 <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP -2.95%) 登场了，它引入了自亚马逊近 30 年前扎根以来，在线购物行业可能经历的最大变革。而且它的增长数据也证明了这一点。</p>
</div><h2>What's Shopify?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>什么是 Shopify？</h2>
</div><p>In simplest terms, Shopify helps businesses of all sizes establish and operate their own e-commerce presence. From websites to digital shopping carts to inventory management to online marketing to payment processing, Shopify is a one-stop shop for any enterprise that wants to be online but doesn't have a clue about where to start. Although the company itself no longer discloses the number, estimates put the current number of Shopify-powered online stores well into the millions. You may have even used its tech without even realizing it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单来说，Shopify 帮助各类企业建立和运营自己的电子商务平台。从网站到数字购物车，再到库存管理、在线营销和支付处理，Shopify 是任何希望在线开展业务但不知道从何开始的企业的一站式服务。尽管公司本身不再披露具体数字，但估计目前使用 Shopify 的在线商店数量已达到数百万。你可能甚至在不知情的情况下使用过它的技术。</p>
</div><p>Simply opening an online store doesn't necessarily mean it's successful, of course. How are these operators actually faring?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，单单开设一个在线商店并不一定意味着成功。这些运营者的实际表现如何呢？</p>
</div><p>Pretty well, actually. Shopify's technology facilitated the sale of $292.3 billion worth of goods and services last year, up 24% from 2023's top line. For its part, Shopify generated nearly $8.9 billion worth of its own revenue in 2024, reflecting a percentage of those sales, revenue from subscriptions to certain services, fees for processing payments, and the like. Of that, $1.1 billion was turned into operating income. For comparison, Amazon reported a 2024 top line of $638 billion and net income of $59 billion. Clearly, Shopify poses no immediate existential threat to the e-commerce giant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>实际上表现相当不错。Shopify 的技术在去年促成了价值 2923 亿美元的商品和服务销售，比 2023 年的收入增长了 24%。就其自身而言，Shopify 在 2024 年产生了近 89 亿美元的收入，反映了这些销售的一部分、某些服务的订阅收入、支付处理费用等。其中 11 亿美元转化为营业收入。相比之下，亚马逊报告的 2024 年收入为 6380 亿美元，净收入为 590 亿美元。显然，Shopify 对这家电子商务巨头并没有立即的生存威胁。</p>
</div><p>Shopify doesn't have to topple Amazon, however, to be a rewarding investment. It only needs to grow itself, and it's had no problem doing that. It's probably not going to face a growth headwind anytime soon either, given how the online shopping landscape is evolving in a way that plays right into Shopify's unique strengths.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Shopify 并不需要推翻亚马逊才能成为一项有回报的投资。它只需要自身增长，而这方面它没有任何问题。考虑到在线购物环境正在以一种恰好符合 Shopify 独特优势的方式演变，它可能不会很快面临增长阻力。</p>
</div><h2>Different in all the right ways</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在所有正确的方面都不同</h2>
</div><p>To fully appreciate Shopify's likely future, you really need to revisit its roots.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要充分理解 Shopify 未来的可能性，你真的需要回顾一下它的根源。</p>
</div><p>Tobias Lütke, Daniel Weinand, and Scott Lake didn't create Shopify back in 2006 by accident. After launching a snowboarding-equipment online store just a couple of years earlier, the trio realized the tools available to small businesses looking to establish their own e-commerce presence were pretty lousy. That's when the actual business opportunity became crystal clear. The rest, as they say, is history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>托比亚斯·吕特克、丹尼尔·韦南德和斯科特·莱克并不是偶然在 2006 年创建了 Shopify。在几年前推出滑雪装备在线商店后，这三人意识到小企业在建立自己的电子商务平台时可用的工具非常糟糕。那时，真正的商业机会变得清晰可见。其余的，正如他们所说，都是历史。</p>
</div><p>That being said, in a way, it was actually Amazon's commanding-but-heavy-handed control of North America's online shopping market that set the stage for Shopify's incredible growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>话虽如此，实际上，亚马逊对北美在线购物市场的强势但粗暴的控制为 Shopify 的惊人增长奠定了基础。</p>
</div><p>Think about it. Plenty of merchants and online sellers utilize Amazon.com as a selling platform due to its sheer size; industry research outfit Digital Commerce 360 says it facilitates on the order of 40% of North America's online shopping. But, these sellers decreasingly view Amazon as a partner. That's because -- in addition to competing directly with Amazon's own goods -- Amazon is increasingly pitting its third-party sellers against one another by monetizing its sales platform in a new way. That's advertising. For a third-party seller to become and remain truly competitive at Amazon.com, it needs to pay to feature its products. Amazon did over $56 billion worth of this high-margin advertising business last year alone, all of it coming out of its sellers' pockets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>想想看。许多商家和在线卖家利用亚马逊.com 作为销售平台，原因在于其庞大的规模；行业研究机构 Digital Commerce 360 表示，它促进了北美约 40% 的在线购物。但这些卖家越来越不把亚马逊视为合作伙伴。这是因为——除了直接与亚马逊自己的商品竞争外——亚马逊还通过以新的方式货币化其销售平台，使其第三方卖家相互竞争。这就是广告。为了在亚马逊.com 上真正具备竞争力，第三方卖家需要支付费用来展示他们的产品。仅去年，亚马逊就进行了超过 560 亿美元的高利润广告业务，所有费用都来自其卖家。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1MTMvZS1jb21tZXJjZS1tYW4tc21pbGluZy1jcmVkaXQtY2FyZC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F827513%2Fe-commerce-man-smiling-credit-card.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Then there's the matter of brand authenticity in an environment that craves it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后就是在一个渴望品牌真实性的环境中，品牌真实性的问题。</p>
</div><p>While Amazon's product listings are effective and efficient, they're also cold and impersonal, and unable to tell the underlying company's story. That's not the case with a Shopify-powered store though, where sellers have complete control of the presentation that makes the personal connection which leads to a sale. And it matters. Recent research performed by <strong>Forrester</strong> indicates that 70% of consumers say they can better relate to an authentic brand and are therefore more likely to buy that brand. This trend is growing too, with younger consumers increasingly requiring this personal connection.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然亚马逊的产品列表有效且高效，但它们也冷漠且缺乏个性，无法讲述背后公司的故事。然而，使用 Shopify 的商店则不同，卖家可以完全控制展示方式，从而建立起与消费者之间的个人联系，进而促成销售。这一点很重要。<strong>Forrester</strong> 进行的最新研究表明，70% 的消费者表示他们更能与真实的品牌产生共鸣，因此更可能购买该品牌。这个趋势也在增长，年轻消费者越来越需要这种个人联系。</p>
</div><p>In this vein, perhaps the most frustrating aspect of selling through Amazon is that once a seller or merchant has turned a consumer into a paying customer, that person is more of an Amazon customer than the seller's. By using Shopify's technology to sell directly to a consumer, however, a business can build a deeper customer relationship with the individual if for no other reason than it directly garners that person's contact information.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，通过亚马逊销售的最令人沮丧的方面之一是，一旦卖家或商家将消费者转变为付费客户，那个人更像是亚马逊的客户，而不是卖家的客户。然而，通过使用 Shopify 的技术直接向消费者销售，企业可以与个人建立更深层次的客户关系，至少因为它直接获取了该人的联系信息。</p>
</div><p>The resulting opportunity created by all of these factors is nothing less than amazing. An outlook from Straits Research suggests the worldwide e-commerce platform market is set to grow at an average annualized pace of 12% through 2033, jibing with similar predictions from Mordor Intelligence and Market.us. Analysts expect even better growth from Shopify at least through 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由所有这些因素创造的机会简直令人惊叹。Straits Research 的展望表明，全球电子商务平台市场预计将在 2033 年前以 12% 的年均增速增长，这与 Mordor Intelligence 和 Market.us 的类似预测一致。分析师预计，Shopify 在至少到 2027 年期间将实现更好的增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1MTMvMDczMDI1LXNob3BpZnktcmVzdWx0cy5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F827513%2F073025-shopify-results.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: StockAnalysis.com. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：StockAnalysis.com。图表由作者制作。</p>
</div><p>Given its commanding share of this space (a leading 28% share of the U.S. market, according to Oberlo) on top of the entire industry's ongoing expansion, Shopify is likely to maintain its strong growth rate well past that point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到其在这一领域的主导份额（根据 Oberlo 的数据，美国市场的份额为 28%）以及整个行业的持续扩张，Shopify 很可能会在这一点上保持强劲的增长率。</p>
</div><h2>Don't sweat the steep valuation too much</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不必过于担心高估值</h2>
</div><p>There are legitimate concerns. Chief among them is valuation. Shopify shares are presently priced at nearly 90 times this year's expected per-share profits of $1.39 and 70 times next year's projected bottom line of $1.78 per share. If nothing else, this steep valuation leaves the stock vulnerable to sizable stumbles. Being priced above the consensus target of $118.79 doesn't exactly help either.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>确实存在合理的担忧。其中最主要的是估值。Shopify 的股票目前的价格几乎是今年预期每股利润 1.39 美元的 90 倍，以及明年预计每股利润 1.78 美元的 70 倍。如果没有其他因素，这样的高估值使得股票容易受到较大波动的影响。高于共识目标价 118.79 美元的定价也并没有带来帮助。</p>
</div><p>This is one of those cases, however, where the story is so compelling and a company's future is so bright that the market is supportive of a rich valuation. Indeed, the fact that Shopify shares are still trading near February's high and still priced well below their 2021 high is an opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这正是一个故事如此引人注目、公司未来如此光明的案例，以至于市场支持高估值。事实上，Shopify 的股票仍然在接近二月份的高点交易，并且仍然远低于 2021 年的高点，这是一种机会。</p>
</div><p>This window of opportunity probably won't remain open much longer though, if recently reported economic data is any indication of how the economy's faring. While July's jobs report was disappointing, June's retail sales, June's consumer spending, and Q2's estimated GDP growth rate of 3% were all pretty strong. It matters simply because economic strength supports consumerism, including the online shopping that Shopify helps make happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，如果最近报告的经济数据能够反映经济的状况，这个机会窗口可能不会再开放太久。尽管七月份的就业报告令人失望，但六月份的零售销售、消费者支出以及第二季度估计的 3% GDP 增长率都相当强劲。这一点很重要，因为经济的强劲支持了消费，包括 Shopify 所促进的在线购物。</p>
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Should You Forget Amazon? Why You Might Want to Buy This Unstoppable Growth Stock Instead

- 亚马逊自 1997 年上市以来增长超过 300,000%。
- Shopify 通过提供一站式电商解决方案，促进了 2923 亿美元的销售。
- 全球电商平台市场预计到 2033 年将以每年 12% 的速度增长。

你是否应该忘记亚马逊？为什么你可能会考虑购买这只势不可挡的成长股